Paul emailed me this morning to ask me my thoughts on the Phillies trade for A’s SP Joe Blanton…

Paul: Mr. Ward, your thoughts?

Coley: Blanton is a clear upgrade over Eaton and will help get the Phils to the playoffs. But he’s not the kind of pitcher who will dominate in the playoffs. He’s not a guy who’s going to go toe to toe with Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Rich Harden or Johan Santana and win. I feel like people are saying the same things about Blanton that they said about Carlos Silva this winter: he’s not that good, but he’ll eat innings and that’s valuable. So I suppose, at the very least, we’re not paying Blanton nearly as much as the Mariners are paying Silva. That’s something, right?

Sarah: Well, you also have to consider that Blanton won’t be matched up against Sabathia, Beckett, Santana, etc…because that will be Hamels’ job. Blanton will be matched up against the likes of a Dice-K.

Paul: Coley, your unwavering insistence that the Phillies are playoff bound is still funny to me. I think Blanton will be an average or slightly below average starter in Philly. Another Kyle Kendrick, basically. And it’s amazing to me that Philly’s farm system was THIS poor that guys like Outman and Cardenas were two of your top 4 prospects.

Coley: Yeah, the farm system sucks. And I know Blanton won’t have to match up against Beckett. But right now the Phillies don’t have a number 2 starter. What we needed was a number 2 starter. And what we got is Blanton. Here are the top two starters from teams that are likely to make the playoffs in the NL:

Webb and Haren
Zambrano and Harden
Sabbathia and Sheets
Santana and Martinez (or Pelfrey)

Is Blanton as good as any of the pitchers listed above? No. Is he close? Not really.

Basically, the Phils need to hope that Brett Myers remembers how to be a badass. And that’s a lot to hope for, considering Myers is currently a minor league pitcher.

MLB Trade Rumors has compiled a rundown of what the blogosphere is saying about the Blanton trade. Read it here.

Going into the season the Phillies had some obvious question marks, but none more glaring than the bullpen. Last year’s bullpen was bad. How bad? I won’t bore you with statistics, but suffice it to say that when you’re regularly pitching Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca, you’ve got problems.

This season, Brad Lidge was given a shot to finish games. It was a gamble, handing over closing duties to a guy with a notoriously fragile psyche. Philadelphia, I’m told, isn’t the ideal place to rebuild one’s confidence. But so far this season, Lidge has been perfect. And the Phillies bullpen, amazingly, has been the best in the NL. Moreover, the team’s offense has been second only to the Chicago Cubs.

Yet all is not well in the City of Brotherly Shove, as the Phils find their lead over the dreaded New York Metropolitans shrinking by the day.

So what do the Phillies need to win the NL East, if not bullpen help or offense?

Nothing.

You heard me. The Phillies are good enough as assembled to win the NL East. The problem isn’t making the playoffs (not that anything is assured). The problem is what happens once they get there.

The Phillies simply don’t have the kind of dominant starting pitching that it takes to win in the playoffs. Cole Hamels is the real thing, for sure. But after Hamels the talent level drops off considerably.

Brett Myers was supposed to be the team’s no. 2, but right now he’s in the minors. He’s scheduled to rejoin the team this week, but it’s hardly a safe bet to assume he’s rediscovered what it takes to dominate hitters.

The popular rumor at the moment is that the Phillies will trade for Oakland SP Joe Blanton, who certainly has a solid track record. But you have to be nervous about trading for a guy with a 1.41 WHIP and an ERA just under 5.00.

Such is the tricky situation Phillies GM Pat Gillick finds himself in. He has a paper thin farm system that he doesn’t want to further deplete. Yet he needs to acquire a top-flight starter if this team has any chance of advancing in October. Moreover, the best starters – Sabathia and Harden – are off the market.

Blanton might be the Phils’ best bet. He’s young. He’s cheap. And he’ll remain under team control through the 2010 season, so he won’t be just a two month rental. Last season was Blanton’s break-out. He pitched 230 innings, recording 140 K’s, a 1.20 WHIP and a nearly 4:1 K/BB. He probably won’t repeat those numbers this season. But, because he has been pretty crappy so far, his price probably isn’t as high as it was in February, when it was rumored the A’s were asking for Homer Bailey and Joey Votto for Blanton.

There’s been a rumor that the Giants will shop Matt Cain, and that the Phillies could be buyers. But that seems highly unlikely. A.J. Burnett is available, but he’s also been very erratic this season – and he’s a total d-bag.

No, I suspect it’ll be Blanton. And that’ll be an upgrade over Kyle Kendrick, to be sure. But while Blanton might bolster the Phils’ thin staff, he isn’t the kind of pitcher who is likely to dominate in the postseason. He’s a groundball pitcher, and that will no doubt serve him well in Citizen Bank Park, but he’s no Johan Santana.

Unfortunately, the only strikeout pitcher the Phillies are likely to add between now and July 31 is Brett Myers. And that’s far from a safe bet.

UPDATE: The Phillies have traded for Joe Blanton.

- What They Need Index -

Did you actually stay up and watch all of that? I confess: I didn’t. But at least I can read about it on the ol’ series of tubes, eh?

Babes Love Baseball has your recap, by the numbers.

Walkoff Walk was there, and has a recap by the feelings.

The ‘Ropolitans says it was tedious.

Thanks to Jeff Passan, we now know why Ichiro just had to be at the All-Star Game this year.

Wax Heaven discusses Dan Uggla’s “uggly” night and gives it a BFD.

Leave it to ShysterBall to come up with the line of the night: “Danny Haren (neck beard) v. Kevin Youkilis (dead badger on chin) has to be the worst facial hair matchup in an All-Star Game since at least the 70s.”

Personally, I found the coverage of the the Josh Hamilton Love-In—aka the Home Run Derby—a little odd. And I’m starting to feel like all that love should maybe, you know, be shared a little?

And I also felt the need to comment on all the roster angst.

From the Hartford Courant via Center Field, the breakdown of whose lockers the Boston’s All Stars were using in the Yankee clubhouse. Of particular note: Manny was borrowing the locker last used by Carl Pavano. GET AWAY FROM THERE, MANNY! UNCLEAN, UNCLEAN!!!!

Jonathan Papelbon said something stupid? No WAY!!!! Get right outta town. (Yanksfan v. Soxfan)

Pap got booed. Mrs. Pap may have been threatened. Bleacher Report says Poor Pap. WasWatching says puhleeeeease.

Of course, Red Sox players aren’t the only ones to get booed in New York. Philly’s Chase Utley got it from the crowd, too—only he gave it right back. The 700 Level has video.

What have you been reading about the ASG? Leave links in the comments, or email me!