The announcement yesterday that Sling Media’s player for the iPhone would be allowed to stream television content via AT&T’s 3G cellular network, comes as a somewhat ho-hum conclusion to the soap opera that is MLB’s involvement in the new media arena.

Up until this point, AT&T had refused to allow third party apps access to its cellular data network for streaming audio or video. Anyone but Major League Baseball Advance Media that is. Now, thanks in part to the FCC, AT&T has relented.

From Wired’s Epicenter blog:

FCC pressure forced AT&T to allow VoIP onto the iPhone, and fear of similar pressure in the media streaming area could have affected its decision about Sling. (AT&T already allowed Major League Baseball to stream, as The New York Times points out, providing ammunition for Sling and consumer groups who complained to the FCC that AT&T’s refusal to support Sling was discriminatory.)

The about-face doesn’t really impact a whole lot of people. In order for you to stream games through your home TV service of choice, you have to own a Sling Player and the $30 iPhone app (a luxury in it’s own right), but arguably, the ability to by-pass MLB’s own iPhone app and still watch games on Apple’s money generator exists. Sure, AT&T’s crappy network means the quality of the audio and video will be much less than if you streamed through WiFi, but the same is true for MLB’s At Bat app.

Putting the conspiracy angle to rest, I’ve always thought this whole mess goes back to the infamous DirecTV-MLB Extra Innings exclusive deal since Echo Star, parent company of Dish Network, didn’t get a slice of MLB’s deal with Cable and DirecTV. Echo Star acquired Sling Media a few months afterward.

The bettors have spoken, and the odds for the 2010 Fall Classic are set.

They’re bullish on the Yanks repeating as world champs, giving the Bronx Bombers 3-1 odds. They’re higher on the Boston Red Sox than the Beantowners’ own sour-pussed fans are, giving the Red Stockings 6-1 odds. But the surprise candidate may be the Cleveland Indians, which the betting men also grant 6-1 odds — despite finishing 21.5 games out of first in 2009 and firing their manager after the season. (Also sneaking in at 6-1: the NL-best Philadelphia Phillies.)

And at the other end of the spectrum? Ladies and gents, with a 150-1 shot at the crown, I give you…the Pirates!

(You know, they’re not on the list, but I think the oddsmakers would have given the Pirates of Penzance a better shot at winning it all than the Pirates of Pittsburgh.)

(Zing!)

What thinkst thou of these results, Umpbumpers? And is anyone else surprised to see Cleveland so high on the list?

ESPN is reporting the Mariners have signed King Felix to a contract extension. Buster Olney says it’ll be “a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $80 million.”

Umpbump has learned some more contract details. Don’t ask us how. We could tell you, but then we’d have to kill you.

Felix will earn a total of $78 million over five seasons. But wait, there’s more! There are escalator clauses!

Add $1 million if he wins a Cy Young.
Add $500K if he comes in second in the Cy Young voting.
Add $250K if he finishes third.

All of which would be added to all remaining years on the contract.

You heard it here first, folks.

I have nothing new to add to this story, but it strikes me that any site called UmpBump needs to post video anytime a manager slugs an umpire. Either that, or we’d need to change the name of the blog. And it took me a week to think of “UmpBump.”

So here’s the video.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows anything about the Milwaukee Brewers, but this is a team that is still in need of at least one more SP capable of posting league-average numbers.

Despite signing the oft-underrated Randy Wolf to replace Braden Looper (who by the way did his very best to provide yet another example that a W-L record is a bad way to judge a pitcher)  the rotation still has two replacement-level starters in Jeff Suppan and Manny Parra.

Suppan especially has become a thorn in their side (yes, even Prince Fielder’s gut can feel that thorn). The 35-year old Soup was signed to a ridiculous $42M/4 deal in December of 2006 and has followed that up with one decent season (2007) and two gross ones. Assuming that the Brewers hold steady at a roughly $80M payroll in 2010, Jeff Suppan’s salary is going to take up 15.6% of that alone in 2010. And with the track record of 35-year old pitchers turning it around after a 3-year decline, no one should assume that Suppan will be much of an asset.

But there’s just that weird sentiment that seems to pervade the minds of baseball team owners that salary should dictate playing time, which never made much sense to me. And assuming that Suppan is untradeable, he’s going to stay in that rotation. So if any improvement’s going to come, it’s at the expense of Manny Parra, who’s no ace himself and constantly underperforms his FIP.

So who will it be? There seems to be talk of Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or Jon Garland but unless they sign a deal for far less than what I imagine it would cost to get them (which has been happening this year), I’d say no thanks. Instead, I’d argue for trading Corey Hart, who I believe is overvalued among fans and very possibly some front offices. If Hart can be dealt (he’s a former All Star!) for a decent arm, moving Casey McGehee to right (assuming he can handle it, of course) and signing Miguel Tejada on the cheap to play third would improve the team without sacrificing much offense.

Even without such a move, the team’s defense could very well have improved despite the departures of Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy. Cam’s replacement will be Carlos Gomez, among the best defensive CFers in the game. It’s clear that Gomez is a worse hitter than some pitchers, but his range in center should help make up for a lot of that. Another addition is prospect Alcides Escobar. He probably won’t be winning any Silver Sluggers anytime soon but his defense at short has been very highly regarded.  While Ryan Braun in left and Casey McGehee at third will still piss pitchers off every now and then, at least they can rely on the guys in center and short to help them out.

The NL Central is winnable although the Cards remain the favorites at this point. The ideal situation would be to somehow get Suppan out of the rotation but I don’t expect that to happen. But finding a cost-effective alternative to Manny Parra should help alleviate that issue some. The Brewers can live with Suppan or Parra as the fifth starter. But they won’t survive if they count on them both.

- What They Need Index -

Not to be too harsh on Jayson Stark since he is a far more respected writer than I will ever be, but his recent article regarding Ryan Braun’s great numbers against elite MLB pitching is a pretty good example of what bugs me as a reader of baseball articles and intimate lover of baseball statistics.  Sorry Mr. Stark, but when I see my lady being abused like this, I have to stand up for her.

Stark sets up the article discussing the difference between good hitters and bad hitters, citing Aaron Miles as the example. He writes:

In 2009, according to Bill James Online, the Cubs’ Aaron Miles — a fellow who hit a robust .185 for the season — actually had a higher batting average against pitchers with an ERA over 5.25 than Ichiro Suzuki or Derek Jeter.

Miles did bat .324 last year against this inferior crop of pitchers. However, as Stark notes, against those whose ERAs were 3.50 or lower, Miles couldn’t hit a lick, posting a .085 AVG. Thus, Stark observes:

So you’ve now learned something about what separates the best hitters on earth from the .185 hitters on earth: The best hitters (feel free to sing along) hit good pitching. And your .185 hitters? Ehhhh, not so much.

And herein lies the root of the problem with the article. Logically speaking, I suppose it makes sense. You don’t expect bad hitters to hit good pitching. But you know what? Over a short span of time, they can. And they do.

I don’t know if Stark checked to see if this was something that Miles perpetually had trouble with. But the fact remains that in 2008, against pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better, Aaron Miles hit .347.  Does this mean that Aaron Miles

As if my nerd-dom wasn't clear enough...

used to be a star player ? We all know that he never was. Here’s a guy whose career batting line is a very mediocre .282/.322/.356. So what gives?

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep on saying it until William Stryker captures me and makes me mute ala Ryan Reynolds (anyone? anyone? no?) – although we’d like to believe that the outcome of a baseball game (or life in general, for that matter) is solely up to the players themselves, it’s just not true.

Takes Miles for instance again. How is it that he was a bad hitter in 2009 against top pitching when he excelled against top pitching the year before? It’s called luck, people. And especially for part-time players like Miles, luck plays a huge role in their year-end numbers because they don’t get many ABs.

You may have heard us geeks talk about “sample sizes” before and this is what we mean. In any given at-bat, the worst hitter in baseball can get a hit off the best pitcher. Maybe the pitcher made a rare mistake. Maybe it was a groundball that sneaked by the shortstop whereas a couple more inches to the right it would have been fielded with ease. Or maybe the batter closed his eyes and god had nothing better to do than answer his prayers. These things happen. In fact, they happen all the time. And over, say, 50 ABs, it could very well happen once, twice, or 20 times more. It’s unlikely. But the world is full of unlikely things. I mean, chances are, at least one of the Gosselin kids will lead a fairly happy life with no need for intensive therapy (I’m so topical!).

But have that same batter and pitcher face each other again 1000 times. I’ll bet the remaining $500.61 I have in my savings account that the numbers will be ugly for this hypothetical batter. Because the longer they play, the more reality sets in. You can’t tell anything about any player in 50ABs. And that’s basically the reliability of the information that Stark is using to make his argument. A player’s true skill level is not revealed statistically in such a short span of time. It takes much longer for that to happen.

No offense, Jayson, but to paraphrase the great Inigo Montoya, I do not think that stat means what you think it means.

The 2009 Tigers finished 9 games over .500 and tied for first place. That’s the good news. The bad news is Detroit lost a one-game playoff to the Twins. What’s worse, the Tigers were lucky to get that far. Detroit won 86 games despite giving up more runs than they scored. That’s not likely to happen again.

This offseason, motivated by a desire to shed payroll, the Tigers parted ways with several of their top players. They traded Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. They sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. They declined to offer arbitration to Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney, and all departed via free agency.

So far, the Tigers have signed one free agent of note: closer Jose Valverde. They also acquired some talented young players in the aforementioned trades.

Detroit landed RHP Max Scherzer, LHP Daniel Schlereth, LHP Phil Coke, and OF Austin Jackson.

Coke and Schlereth are hard-throwing middle relievers and neither figures to make a huge splash, though both should make the opening day roster. Scherzer is a starter who misses bats and has the potential to be an ace, if he can stay healthy (though most scouts doubt that he will). Meanwhile, Austin Jackson should be a serviceable replacement for Granderson. Here’s what ESPN’s Kieth Law had to say about Jackson:

Jackson is a good-but-not-great athlete. He’s an above-average runner, but not a burner; he’s wiry, but the power that has been projected has yet to materialize. His game played up in the low minors because he controlled the strike zone well for a young, inexperienced hitter. His plate discipline has gotten worse as he’s risen the ladder, and he may need a few years in the majors before he’ll post acceptable OBPs. But he can handle center field defensively and should produce enough at the plate to be an asset even in 2010, during which he’d earn the minimum salary.

What else do the Tigers need?

Detroit’s pitching was pretty woeful in 2009 (just look at the Tigers’ FIP, which was the third-highest in the AL). The team’s ERA was greatly bolstered by excellent team defense. Scherzer has the potential to improve the team’s staff all by himself in 2010. But the big difference-maker could be Jeremy Bonderman, who has struggled with injuries the past few seasons but could be a number 3 starter if healthy. Bonderman walks a few too many batters, but he’s also capable of racking up strikeouts.

A rotation fronted by Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Scherzer and a healthy Bonderman would be an admirable staff, and could help the Tigers keep pace in 2010. A little of the luck they enjoyed in 2009 wouldn’t hurt either.

-What They Need Index-

The Rangers have a lot of questions entering 2010. Can Josh Hamilton stay healthy? Will Julio Borbon transition smoothly to the majors? Will Neftali Feliz thrive as a starter? Can Vlad Geurero rediscover some of his power? Can Chris Davis hit his weight? Has Khalil Greene overcome anxiety problems? Will the Rangers hitters struggle now that hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo has left for Chicago? And so on.

But Texas has a lot going for it, too. This is a team that finished 12 games over .500 last season, in second place. Moreover, the first-place Angels are unlikely to repeat last season’s success. The Rangers’ time is now.

What does Texas need to get over the hump? Better pitching, but what else is new? Feliz looks primed to be the organization’s first decent home-grown arm in ages, but it’s unclear if he’ll start the year in the rotation. Harden misses a ton of bats when healthy, but he’s hardly ever healthy. Feldman won 17 games in 2009, but everyone projects he’ll regress. Brandon McCarthy? Yeah, he’s got potential — Bill James projects he’ll pitch 163 innings and win 9 games, 2 more than last season. Then there’s Tommy Hunter and Matt Harrison, two young arms that seem destined for mediocrity.

The Rangers have good defense and decent offense that figures to improve if Hamilton stays on the field and Davis lives up to the hype. Texas just needs good production from it’s bench and decent contributions from Feliz and Harden and they could find themselves playing meaningful baseball in October.

-What They Need Index-