Comments on: 500 Saves: A New Benchmark? http://umpbump.com/press/2007/06/07/500-saves-a-new-benchmark/ In-your-face baseball commentary Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:15:35 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2007/06/07/500-saves-a-new-benchmark/comment-page-1/#comment-52690 Nick Kapur Thu, 07 Jun 2007 20:29:50 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/500-saves-a-new-benchmark/#comment-52690 <p>This is an exceedingly excellent post, Paul, and I agree with everything you said 100 percent.</p> <p>I think one of the best arguments against the save as a stat is the statistic that since 1972, when a team entered the 9th with a 1-run lead, they won 85 percent of the time, when they had a 2-run lead they won 93 percent of the time, and when they had a 3-run lead, they won 97 percent of the time. These are the numbers across all teams, <i>no matter who was pitching</i>.</p> <p>Even the very best closers of all time - guys like Hoffman and Rivera - only increase these statistics by 1 or 2 percentage points. Hoffman's career saves converted percentage is 89%. So it is beyond ridiculous to argue that closers have a larger impact on team wins than a guy who hits 500 jacks.</p> This is an exceedingly excellent post, Paul, and I agree with everything you said 100 percent.

I think one of the best arguments against the save as a stat is the statistic that since 1972, when a team entered the 9th with a 1-run lead, they won 85 percent of the time, when they had a 2-run lead they won 93 percent of the time, and when they had a 3-run lead, they won 97 percent of the time. These are the numbers across all teams, no matter who was pitching.

Even the very best closers of all time – guys like Hoffman and Rivera – only increase these statistics by 1 or 2 percentage points. Hoffman’s career saves converted percentage is 89%. So it is beyond ridiculous to argue that closers have a larger impact on team wins than a guy who hits 500 jacks.

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