I will analyze trades and rumored trades going down today, updating as news breaks. Latest news will be on top.

Red Sox acquire Eric Gagne from the Rangers for Kason Gabbard and minor leaguers David Murphy and Engel Beltre
I’m a big Kason Gabbard fan, so I think that the Rangers come out the winners in this one, especially given their desperate need for major-league-ready starting pitching. The Sox did avoid giving up any of their A-list prospects and moving Gabbard is helpful in the short term to clear room in the rotation for Schilling’s impending return, but they had to renegotiate Gagne’s contract to get him to waive his no trade clause, bumping up the price tag by several million, and they have consistently under-estimated Gabbard’s potential. If Gabbard ends up being a decent major league starter, the Sox may well regret giving him up for just two months and ~20 innings of Gagne.

Astros dump Morgan Ensberg on the Padres for a player to be named
The Padres continue their endless quest for a third baseman, which has been going on for more than two years now. No word yet on which minor leaguer the Astros are getting but it was probably nobody special since the Astros had designated Ensberg for assignment and had to trade him.

Padres get Rob Mackowiak from the White Sox for a player to be named
The Padres continue their search for answers in the outfield. Mackowiak is an even better option that yesterday’s acquisition, Scott Hairston, for the 4th outfielder role, so Hairston is probably headed to the minors. The White Sox are clearly sellers this year, so anything they can get for their impending free agents is a plus.

Braves get Octavio Dotel from the Royals Kyle Davies
This deal has been agreed to by both sides, but the Braves have to wait until the Teixera deal is finalized because Davies could potentially become the alternate player if the Rangers reject Matt Harrison for health reasons. This deal makes sense for both teams - the Braves have soured on Davies but the Royals would get a live arm to upgrade their ever-beleaguered rotation. There is speculation that Moore could have gotten a bit more for Dotel than Davies, but that his familiarity with Davies from his days in the Braves organization and his gut-feeling that Davies can be a star swung things in favor of the Braves.

Dodgers deal Wilson Betemit to the Yankees for Scott Proctor
At first glance this seems like a good deal for the Dodgers. Betemit had lost his starting job and had nowhere to play, and the Dodgers bullpen has been devastated by injuries and having to move Chad Billingsley, Mark Hendrickson, and Brett Tomko into the rotation to replace injured starters. However, Betemit’s low batting average of .231 conceals the fact that he has an extremely respectable OPS of .834, and by all rights should be starting at 3B over Nomar Garciaparra, who has a pathetic OPS of .690. Betemit’s OBP is .359; Nomar’s is .330. Betemit’s SLG is .474; Nomar’s is .360. Betemit has 10 home runs in 156 at-bats; Nomar has 4 home runs in 358 at bats. Meanwhile Scott Proctor has been one of the most abused pitchers in baseball since the beginning of 2006, and his peripherals are way down across the board since last year. So basically, this is a great deal for the Yankees. Betemit is a huge upgrade over Miguel Cairo as a utility infielder, and offers insurance at 3B should A-Rod opt out of his contract. Given a full year as a starter, Betemit should be able to hit 30 homers with a decent OBP.

Red Sox ship Joel Piniero to the Cardinals for a player to be named
This deal makes sense for both teams. The let’s-convert-piniero-to-a-bullpen-ace plan had been a complete bust for the Red Sox this season, so much so that they had busted Piniero down to the minors July 25. But for the Cardinals, Piniero immediately becomes something like their third best starting pitcher, so giving up a player-to-be-named seems like a pretty cheap price for a team with no starting pitching to speak of to gamble on Dave Duncan’s ability to help a player that is only 28 years old and has already started 148 big league games.

My girlfriend is chasing her PhD in applied mathematics, so I get subjected to a lot of talk about circuits, black holes and equations. And most of it is way over my head. That’s why I get really excited when scientists come out with something that even I understand.

Yesterday, USA Today announced the release of a new scientific study that proves that, “Even after a long series of competitions, the best team does not always finish first.”

From USA Today:

The study authors, who specialize in studying random behavior in complex materials, plugged the odds of low-seed teams beating high-seed ones, 44% in baseball over the last century, into a mathematical model of a typical season.

The more games played, the better the chances that the higher seeded teams will become champions, according to the study. And it becomes less likely that a weak team will weasel its way to the top.

Frankly, nothing in this report should come as any surprise to anyone who watches sports. Over the course of a long season, the talented teams always win. But over the course of a short playoff series, sometimes a Cinderella will prevail.

Last year, people got genuinely pissed when the Cardinals won the World Series. Bloggers and columnists wondered aloud if they were the worst champions ever.

In fact, the 2006 Cardinals were not the worst team to win a World Series. That honor goes to the 2003 Marlins, who the study says were the crappiest team in the last 50 years to win a championship.

Most of the time, of course, the better team does win — especially in baseball. The study says baseball’s lengthy season rewards superior squads more than, say, football’s 16 game regular season.

But in the playoffs, baseball could do more to ensure that the better team comes out on top:

But to ensure that the best Major League Baseball team wins, a longer World Series, say 11 games, would be mathematically appropriate. “The same is true for other competitions in arts, science and politics,” write the study authors.

A longer World Series? What a crazy idea. Seems to me somebody suggested that not too long ago. Can’t remember who…

Oh that’s right — it was Scott Boras! The super agent told Bud Selig he wanted to make the World Series nine games, instead of seven. He also said that the first two games of the series should be played at a neutral site.

Sure, Boras claimed his motivation for expanding the series was to create a “marketing bonanza.” But is it possible that, in addition to making money, a longer world series might actually make sense?

Stepping away from the rumor mill for a bit, we here at Umpbump would be remiss if if we didn’t talk about what may turn out to be a day remembered for greatness that far surpasses any trade that goes down.

First up, at 7:05 EST, the New York Yankees will face the Chicago White Sox as Alex Rodriguez will try to become the 22nd member of the 500-Homerun Club. Sure, we crack jokes about the guy. And if he doesn’t like it, then damn it, he shouldn’t be so good at being the butt of it. But make no mistake that when his playing days are done, we’ll remember him as one of the greatest players to ever put on a baseball uniform. And as a man who has a thing for muscular women.

At 8:05 Flushing-Standard-Time, Tom Glavine goes for win number 300 in his illustrious, yet somehow boring, career. The guy is mechanical and I actually mean this as a compliment. It is clear that Tommy can no longer carry a pitching staff, and this may have been true for some time. And yet, I am amazed by what he has accomplished despite the fact that his peripherals aren’t eye-catching. For his career, he has a 5.34 K/9, and a 1.76 K/BB. How did he get to this point where we’re talking about him as a sure-fire Hall of Famer? Simply put, the man is consistent. Mechanical. Maybe boring. 

Finally, at 10:10 EST in Los Angeles, the world will tune in to see if Barry Bonds can tie the most heralded record in sports. It’s going to be tough, no doubt about it. Especially if Bonds is benched so as not to have a PR nightmare when the LA fans boo after realizing that David Beckham is actually not a very good soccer player.

ESPN.com is reporting that the rumored trade between the Dodgers and Yankees has been finalized. Los Angeles will be shipping off IFer Wilson Betemit to New York for reliever Scott Proctor.

Proctor is generally known for two things: 1) being a victim of an evil plot by Joe “Jaws” Torre to slowly and elaborately blow up the shoulders of any decent reliever and 2) setting his equipment on fire in Yankee Stadium. The Dodgers were desperate for bullpen help and with the high price tags on arms such as Eric Gagne, Solomon Torres, Al Reyes, and Chad Cordero, the Dodgers went a step lower. One has to worry about Proctor’s arm, as only Jon Rauch and Matt Capps have entered more games since the start of 2006, and neither of them logged more innings over that same span.

The switch-hitting Betemit, on the other hand, should be a nice pick-up for the Yanks. Despite the fact that he’s batting .231 on the year, he makes up for it with a .359 OBP with good pop when he bats from the left side, which should be a plus with the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium. I always thought that on the right team Betemit would be a useful piece. We’ll see if the Yankees, who had been searching for a utility-infielder, can be that team.

My initial reactions to yesterday’s deals:

The Atlanta-Texas trade is a classic short-term vs. long-term compromise. The NL East is ultimately winnable in the here and now, and Atlanta knew it. While adding Teixeira by no means makes them a complete club (they still lack starting pitching behind Smoltz and Hudson), Teix is a huge upgrade over Scott Thorman. However, the Braves must know that their window to win with Teixeira will only remain open for only the next season and a half. As a Scott Boras client who will be eligible for free-agency after 2009, I have a hard time seeing Atlanta ponying up the necessary money to keep him beyond that.

The Rangers, I think, did extremely well. Even in the mediocre AL West, they were nowhere near contention. Although this deal may not fill their biggest organizational hole (that would be a #1 Starter, a #2 Starter, a #3 Starter, and a #4 Starter), they have a building block in place with Saltalamacchia, especially if they can find a way to keep him behind the plate. While Elvis Andrus is far too young to project any meaningful on-field accomplishments, barring injury, he becomes at worst a guy the Rangers can dangle in front of a GM who overvalues “tools” in a future trade. If Matt Harrison can become a big-league starter, we may be talking about this deal as a slam-dunk in a few years’ time.

The Mets also made a deal, for better or worse, to acquire Minnesota second-baseman Luis Castillo. After Jose Valentin broke his shin recently, New York had been playing 24-year old Ruben Gotay in his place. Despite the fact that Gotay isn’t projected to be a star, he has filled in admirably, providing good speed, decent defense, a line-drive swing and a nice (albeit fluky) .350 AVG. At this point in his career, however, Gotay should probably be counted on to only hit .270 or so, and with his plate discipline not yet developed, he probably won’t have an OBP above .310. Moreover, big league teams are generally reluctant to play young guys down the stretch in a pennant race due to the perceived pressure such an environment would create. So in comes Castillo, who along with Juan Pierre is still remembered as 1/2 of the dynamic duo of table-setters for the winners of the 2003 World Series, Florida Marlins.  The 31-year old is certainly past his prime, but can still put the ball in play with the rest of them and should provide a higher AVG and OBP than what I suspect Gotay could be able to conjure.

But I do disagree with the perception that the Mets upgraded defensively. Castillo is sure-handed but his range is very limited. With Castillo at second, Carlos Delgado at first and Shawn Green in right, the defense on the right side of the field at Shea may be worth keeping tabs on from here on out.  I would also argue that we need to stop thinking of Castillo as a good basestealer. Although he did swipe 25 last year, he was also caught 11 times. Since 2005, he has a success rate of 67% when attempting to steal, and at that point he’s doing more harm than good.

What I do like most about this deal, however, is actually what may happen after the season. Castillo’s contract is up following the World Series and if (hopefully) the Mets decide not to resign him, he will most likely be a Class-B free agent, which should net the team a sandwich pick in the next amateur draft, which will give the team a better prospect than the two the Mets gave up to acquire Castillo (Drew Butera and Dustin Martin).  

Rounding out the NL East, in a microcosm of how badly we overvalue preseason perceptions, the  Philadelphia Phillies acquired Kyle Lohse from Cincinnati to help fill out the back-end of their rotation. Prior to April, the word most associated with the Phillies’ pitching was “surplus”. Having traded for Freddy Garcia in the off-season, the Phillies were thought to have six pitchers who were more than capable of holding down a rotation spot - Garcia, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jon Lieber, Adam Eaton, and Jamie Moyer.

Yet, after some injuries and disappointing performances, the Phils felt the need to acquire Lohse, a 28-year old righty with a career 4.83 ERA, to improve their staff. Thus far in 2007, they rank 25th in team ERA, much due to the fact that only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays give up more homeruns than Philly. So what do they do? They trade for another pitcher who is prone to giving up the long ball. In all fairness, while I don’t think that Lohse is the answer, neither is J.D. Durbin, so I do not foresee this trade having much of an impact in the NL East. I was impressed, however, at the team’s aggressiveness in bringing in Tadahito Iguchi despite the fact that Chase Utley is expected to return within a few weeks.

Mark Teixeira, one of the hottest names bandied about before tomorrow’s trade deadline, has just been traded. The Rangers are sending the first baseman and a lefty reliever, Rob Mahay, to the Braves. The Braves are giving up their top two prospects (and with them, any chance of reclaiming the awesome-nickname-days of yore).

Some suspected that Texas wanted to dump Teixeira because he was a chronic complainer. Nevertheless, it seems they got a lot in return. According to early reports, Atlanta sent them top-rated catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop-of-the-future Elvis Andrus, pitching prospect Matt Harrison and 19-year-old righthander Nestali Feliz. Salty (as he is known) and Elvis (Elvis!!) are the top two prospects in the Braves’ organization. Harrison is their third-ranked youngster.

Teixeira is eligible for salary arbitration after this season. He becomes a free agent at the end of next season.

I can’t decide whether the Rangers have made out like bandits, or whether the Braves got Teixeira cheap. One the one hand, all the Braves had to give up was prospects. On the other, they reportedly gave up the best three prospects they had.

Here’s the short version on Teixeira:

Teixeira, a 27-year-old switch-hitting slugger, has won two Gold Gloves at first base. He is batting .297 this season with 13 home runs and 49 RBIs. Since breaking into the majors with Texas in 2003, Teixeira has had seasons of 26, 38, 43 and 33 home runs.

Only Ralph Kiner, Albert Pujols and Eddie Mathews hit more than the 140 homers that Teixeira had in his first four major league seasons. He had at least 33 homers and 110 RBIs in each of the past three.

The former Georgia Tech star will be a huge upgrade for the Braves, who’ve slid to third in the NL East and have been using stand-ins at first this year. But was it worth ditching their top three prospects, plus this guy Feliz? Well, Saltalamacchia had nowhere to go after the Braves re-upped last year’s breakout catcher, Brian McCann, to a six-year deal. Here’s what Baseball Prospectus has to say about Salty, Elvis, and Harrison.

Elvis Andrus: Only 18, he’s “as toolsy as he is young” and “even if he’s only a speedy line-drive hitter with good glove-work, that’s still a potential All-Star, and there’s a chance he’ll be more than that.”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Twenty-two and six-foot-four, Salty battled a hand injury last season in Double A, but once he kicked it, hit “.338/.474/.649 in the last two months…the other good news is that he improved behind the plate, throwing out 36 percent of opposing runners.”

Matt Harrison: The 21-year old is built in the classic mode: a hulking lefty who likes to throw heat. Like Nuke LaLoosh he can hit 95, but generally works in the low 90s. Unlike Ebbie Calvin, however, he can also control where the ball is going. He “throws a ton of strikes and supplements his heat with a plus curve and change.”

I suppose it makes sense to move Saltalamacchia, if you’re confident you want to go with McCann. I mean, that’s what extraneous prospects are for, right? To use as chips. But to blow all your chips on one dude? I dunno. If the Braves miss the playoffs again this year, they may end up with buyers’ remorse.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have ended up with a young shortstop and a lefthanded starting pitcher for the future, and a catcher they could stick behind the plate tomorrow (sorry Gerald Laird). I’m going to have to give the Rangers the edge on this one. At least it looks like they have some kind of organizational philosophy. The Braves, on the other hand, still seem to be wandering in the desert.

Every now and then, you’ll come across a name in a news article or see a face on television and think, “Wait, that guy is still alive?” I recently had this occurence seeing Golden Girl Betty White on a 1-800-PetMeds commerical. Turns out all four of the Golden Girls are still ticking according to the show’s Wikipedia entry. Oh, and Estelle Getty, who played Bea Arthur’s mother on the show, is actually younger than Bea Arthur. Go figure.

The reason why I bring this up is that buried deep within this San Diego Union-Tribune article about trade rumors involving Mark Loretta, I learned that Shawn Estes was still pitching in the Padres organization. Having not heard the name in a couple of years, I had simply assumed that he had retired. He did not, but rather, has been rehabbing from elbow surgery. He just made his second start of the year for San Diego’s Single-A Lake Elsinore where he has one earned run, eight Ks, and one walk allowed in nine innings.

And it looks like he may get another shot at the bigs. The article quotes Pads GM Kevin Towers:

“We’d like to add some depth to our starting pitching,” Towers said. “There’s just not a lot of it out there. Estes had another good outing, which gives us hope.”

Estes is one of those pitchers who, for me, was far better in memory than in actuality. I’m more inclined to remember his 19-win season in 1997 as a 24-year old lefty than the rest of his career which never lived up those expectations.  While he has a career record over .500 (99-90), his other numbers are far from impressive. His career ERA is 4.71 with a 1.53 WHIP and he walked far too many batters for a guy who wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher. Add in the fact that he has not appeared in a big-league game for nearly 16 months and it makes me wonder if this is a good move for a team with strong playoff aspirations like the Padres. I hope I’m wrong because I’m a sucker for stories like this (I am actually holding out hopes that Oil Can Boyd will one day return) Either way, it goes to prove my theory that if you’re a lefty who is yet to experience rigor mortis, you’ll have a job in MLB.

In the spirit of Paul’s recent Harry Potter post, what happens when you skip a game or two? As this week’s Metro column explains, guilt. Frustration. Feelings of hopelessness and despair. Especially when your team only wins when you’re not watching, damn it.

Smith is one of the most common last names in America, so I got to wondering, what would a team of the greatest Smiths ever to play the game of baseball look like? Sure, it would have the Wizard of Oz at shortstop and all-time saves leader Lee Smith coming in out of the ‘pen in the 9th, but would there be enough talented Smiths to fill out the rest of a major-league roster? And even if there were, would the team be any good? The answer to these questions, I would say, is yes, and yes.

Altogether, 142 Smiths have played in the Major Leagues, including two men known to history only as “Smith 1” and “Smith 2” - they played in only one game each in the 1800s and since only last names were recorded in the box score, their first names have been lost to history.

Some Smiths tried to make up for their boring last name and mediocre baseball ability by acquiring colorful first names or middle names, among them Klondike Smith, Skyrocket Smith, and Phenomenal Smith, but alas, none of these players was awesome enough on the actual baseball diamond to crack our squad.

Anyway, without further ado, here is the All-Time Smith Team (homers and stolen bases are career numbers averaged over a full season; the rest are career totals):

CF Elmer Smith - .310/.398/.434, 5 HR, 30 SB
LF Lonnie Smith - .288/.371/.420, 10 HR, 37 SB
C Earl Smith - .303/.374/.432, 9 HR, 3 SB
1B Reggie Smith - .287/.366/.489, 26 HR, 11 SB
RF Al Smith - .272/.358/.429, 18 HR, 7 SB
3B Red Smith - .278/.353/.377, 4 HR, 17 SB
SS Ozzie Smith - .262/.337/.328, 2 HR, 37 SB
2B Pop Smith - .222/.287/.313, 3 HR, 25 SB

SP Hilton Smith - Negro Leagues
SP Frank Smith - 139-111, 2.59
SP Bryn Smith - 108-94, 3.53
SP Sherry Smith - 114-118, 3.32
SP Zane Smith - 100-115, 3.74

CL Lee Smith - 478 SV, 3.03 ERA
RP Dave Smith - 216 SV, 2.67 ERA
RP Frank Smith - 44 SV, 3.81 ERA

The rest of the bullpen and bench could easily be filled out with any of the vast number of relievers and benchwarmers named “Smith” who made The Show for a few years and did decently, but not great.

As you can see this is actually a pretty strong team. Not much power, but a ridiculous amount of speed on the basepaths and very strong pitching. Projected leadoff man and centerfielder Elmer Smith had a career OBP of almost .400, and was also a mini Babe Ruth, beginning his career as a pitcher and compiling a 75-57 record and a 3.35 ERA in 149 games including two 20-win seasons. Lonnie Smith was an outstanding outfielder for the Phillies, Cardinals, Royals, and Braves in the 80s, and once stole as many as 68 bases in a season. Earl Smith was an astonishingly good-hitting catcher in the 1920s, although somewhat of a clogger on the basepaths, not surprisingly. Cleanup hitter Reggie Smith was one of the better switch-hitters of all time, and leads the squad with 314 career home runs. He actually played more in the outfield, but finished his career at first, and the other 141 Smiths had ridiculously little experience playing first-sacker. Ozzie Smith is of course the undisputed greatest defensive shortstop in baseball history, and turned himself into a rather decent hitter by the end of his career. If there is one big weakness in the batting order, it is second baseman Pop Smith and his pathetic .600 career OPS, but he must have been pretty awesome on defense because he was allowed to play 1112 games in the Major Leagues, and at least he did have a bit of speed.

But it is the pitching staff which may actually be the true strength of this team. Staff ace Hilton Smith, the only Hall-of-Famer on the team, was probably the second best pitcher to play in the Negro Leagues, behind only Satchel Paige. He played in the outfield on the days he didn’t pitch, and was quite a good hitter, batting as high as .431 in 1946. Frank Smith had two seasons of at least 20 wins and another with 19. Bryn Smith was a very under-appreciated pitcher in the 1980s because he played for the Montreal Expos and didn’t get much run support, but he did manage to win 18 games in 1985. The bullpen is also a strength with three pitchers who served as closers, led by the great Lee Smith, and by Dave Smith who was actually even better than Lee, but had a shorter career.

Final Verdict: A pretty awesome team which could probably win a World Series, especially if some of these guys were in their primes, when their numbers were even better than the career averages/totals you see here. The lack of power is a bit of a concern, but with amazing speed up and down the lineup and the pitching to make small leads stand up, they could make little ball work.

I’m an unapologetic Harry Potter fan.  Judge me if you must, but know that I’m a much happier person than you because of this. So when “The-Boy-Who-Lived” and baseball collide, I have to post.

J.C. Bradbury, the author of “The Baseball Economist” and fellow Potter fan, looks at MLB’s attendance figures from this past Saturday wondering on his blog if Saturday’s release of the seventh and final Potter book, “The Deathly Hallows”, had any effect on how many people went to a big league game. His findings? Little to no impact.

 Harry Potter cost teams an average of 418 fans per game—a total of 6,270 fans. Using average ticket prices this translates to about $138,000 in lost gate revenue. Add in concessions and the losses are still small.

He does ultimately hypothesize that there probably was a bigger impact on the number of those who watched these games on television (I definitely did nothing else in my spare time on Saturday than to read through 3/4 of the book), but even still there’s a part of me that wanted to see a bigger legion of baseball/Potter fans. 

Now I feel lonely.