Comments on: Neifi Perez was cheating! No, really. He was. http://umpbump.com/press/2007/07/06/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/ In-your-face baseball commentary Sat, 21 Nov 2009 07:30:20 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: dteberle http://umpbump.com/press/2007/07/06/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/comment-page-1/#comment-16957 dteberle Tue, 26 Jun 2007 20:03:54 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/#comment-16957 Oh, forgot to mention that part - Win Probability, as it is used in CWS, is meaningless. Even Win Expectancy assumes that the two teams involved are of equal strength which is hardly the case. It doesn't (and shouldn't) lend itself to a live telecast the way it's used in poker. There are far too many variables. In poker, you have far more limited outcomes that are preordained that are far more compatible with absolute mathematics. Oh, forgot to mention that part – Win Probability, as it is used in CWS, is meaningless. Even Win Expectancy assumes that the two teams involved are of equal strength which is hardly the case. It doesn’t (and shouldn’t) lend itself to a live telecast the way it’s used in poker. There are far too many variables. In poker, you have far more limited outcomes that are preordained that are far more compatible with absolute mathematics.

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]]> By: JojoFireball http://umpbump.com/press/2007/07/06/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/comment-page-1/#comment-16956 JojoFireball Tue, 26 Jun 2007 19:56:51 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/#comment-16956 As a 4 year college baseball player and now a college assistant coach, and avid poker tournament player I thought the win probability was maybe the most far reaching ridiculous stat I'd ever seen... With college baseball players, and bullpens who can't throw strikes, and aluminum bats and umpires in Omaha who feed off the crowd (if you watch you'll see they do) there are so many other factors that figure in to win probability. Nobody knows when a 7 run inning is coming and in college baseball they happen ALOT. In pro ball the stat could be more useful if you're into stuff like that because things play out like they're supposed more often in pro ball. The College World Series is like the wild west. Gun slinging excitement. Putting the constraints of probability on that atmosphere doesn't do it justice. I'm just one guy though... As a 4 year college baseball player and now a college assistant coach, and avid poker tournament player I thought the win probability was maybe the most far reaching ridiculous stat I’d ever seen…

With college baseball players, and bullpens who can’t throw strikes, and aluminum bats and umpires in Omaha who feed off the crowd (if you watch you’ll see they do) there are so many other factors that figure in to win probability. Nobody knows when a 7 run inning is coming and in college baseball they happen ALOT.

In pro ball the stat could be more useful if you’re into stuff like that because things play out like they’re supposed more often in pro ball. The College World Series is like the wild west. Gun slinging excitement. Putting the constraints of probability on that atmosphere doesn’t do it justice. I’m just one guy though…

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]]> By: dteberle http://umpbump.com/press/2007/07/06/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/comment-page-1/#comment-16944 dteberle Tue, 26 Jun 2007 16:52:47 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/neifi-perez-was-cheating-no-really-he-was/#comment-16944 One recent study of baseball numbers I've read actually breaks down each element of the game into a "run value". It has compiled data over the past ten years and calculated how much value each "act" (such as stolen base, ground out, double) has (or rather, is expected to have) on the scoreboard. The study also looks at "Win Expectancy", which seems like it's close to what ESPN has done. "Win Expectancy" takes two teams of fairly equal talent and breaks down every possible situation in a game (2 down, 1 on, top of the fifth, and so on) and calculates how likey either team is to win from this point forth. But as you point out, Win Expectancy pretty much states the obvious. But I do find it interesting to see how likely or unlikely comebacks are. One recent study of baseball numbers I’ve read actually breaks down each element of the game into a “run value”. It has compiled data over the past ten years and calculated how much value each “act” (such as stolen base, ground out, double) has (or rather, is expected to have) on the scoreboard.

The study also looks at “Win Expectancy”, which seems like it’s close to what ESPN has done. “Win Expectancy” takes two teams of fairly equal talent and breaks down every possible situation in a game (2 down, 1 on, top of the fifth, and so on) and calculates how likey either team is to win from this point forth.

But as you point out, Win Expectancy pretty much states the obvious. But I do find it interesting to see how likely or unlikely comebacks are.

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