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	<title>Comments on: Five or more thoughts after last night&#8217;s game</title>
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		<title>By: Nick Kapur</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53498</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Kapur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2007 04:25:35 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>If I were Kenny Williams I actually probably would have blown up this aging team, trading Dye, Buehrle, Thome, and Garland for everything I could get. But I understand how it can be hard to part with aging but beloved veterans, especially the ones who brought home a World Series title.



Also, that article you cited was written 2 years ago, right after the White Sox had just won the World Series, so naturally everything looked rosy back then to a Chicago-based writer like Phil Rogers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If I were Kenny Williams I actually probably would have blown up this aging team, trading Dye, Buehrle, Thome, and Garland for everything I could get. But I understand how it can be hard to part with aging but beloved veterans, especially the ones who brought home a World Series title.</p>
<p>Also, that article you cited was written 2 years ago, right after the White Sox had just won the World Series, so naturally everything looked rosy back then to a Chicago-based writer like Phil Rogers.
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		<title>By: Nick Kapur</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53497</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Kapur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2007 04:19:02 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I really don&#039;t want to harsh on the White Sox too much, Alejandro. They definitely had a good team in 2005, but it is also true that they had a lot of players put up career years all at once, and they also outperformed their win-expectancy by a large margin, so it was not a surprise that they didn&#039;t do as well the next season, despite returning the team intact (although it&#039;s pretty hard to win a World Series under any circumstances!).



But I am also not sold on the White Sox as a perennial contender in the next few years ahead. I think they are on the edge - ie in the 85 win range. Which means if things break right they can win 93 or something and make the dance, but when things break wrong, like they did this year, they&#039;ll be back in the 70s.



The White Sox do have some good prospects, but they also have a lot of holes to fill - bullpen, second base, outfield, rotation. Meanwhile, the established players are aging and Garland and Thome are going to be free agents after next season.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I really don&#8217;t want to harsh on the White Sox too much, Alejandro. They definitely had a good team in 2005, but it is also true that they had a lot of players put up career years all at once, and they also outperformed their win-expectancy by a large margin, so it was not a surprise that they didn&#8217;t do as well the next season, despite returning the team intact (although it&#8217;s pretty hard to win a World Series under any circumstances!).</p>
<p>But I am also not sold on the White Sox as a perennial contender in the next few years ahead. I think they are on the edge &#8211; ie in the 85 win range. Which means if things break right they can win 93 or something and make the dance, but when things break wrong, like they did this year, they&#8217;ll be back in the 70s.</p>
<p>The White Sox do have some good prospects, but they also have a lot of holes to fill &#8211; bullpen, second base, outfield, rotation. Meanwhile, the established players are aging and Garland and Thome are going to be free agents after next season.
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		<title>By: Alejandro Leal</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53499</link>
		<dc:creator>Alejandro Leal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 18:00:04 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Nick



One-year-wonders??!!! I don&#039;t think winning 96 games (like they did in 2006) is systematic of a fluke. Yes, the White Sox were able to put it together in 2005, something they haven&#039;t been able to replicate any other year since 2001 (when the Williams reign began), but you have to take into account that the division became the best in baseball in a manner of two or three years.



That said, I&#039;m not excusing the team&#039;s poor play this year.



Oh and I will ask my main man Phil Rogers to further debunk your one-year-wonder theory. How about I pull a 2006 article, titled &lt;a href=&quot;http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&amp;id=2447208&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Williams has (Chi)Sox loaded for years to come&lt;/a&gt;, in which, as you may imagine, the point is made that the Sox can and will contend for years to come.



The only prospect mentioned in that article that isn&#039;t with the White Sox today is Brandon McCarthy, and well all know how well his season fared in Texas.



Coincidentally, that same article can serve as a talking point to argue that the Indians &lt;em&gt;will not be back in the ALCS&lt;/em&gt; next year.



(In the court of law, isn&#039;t that against the rules? Using one argument to show guilt, but then using the same argument to show innocence in another tort?)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick</p>
<p>One-year-wonders??!!! I don&#8217;t think winning 96 games (like they did in 2006) is systematic of a fluke. Yes, the White Sox were able to put it together in 2005, something they haven&#8217;t been able to replicate any other year since 2001 (when the Williams reign began), but you have to take into account that the division became the best in baseball in a manner of two or three years.</p>
<p>That said, I&#8217;m not excusing the team&#8217;s poor play this year.</p>
<p>Oh and I will ask my main man Phil Rogers to further debunk your one-year-wonder theory. How about I pull a 2006 article, titled <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&amp;id=2447208" rel="nofollow">Williams has (Chi)Sox loaded for years to come</a>, in which, as you may imagine, the point is made that the Sox can and will contend for years to come.</p>
<p>The only prospect mentioned in that article that isn&#8217;t with the White Sox today is Brandon McCarthy, and well all know how well his season fared in Texas.</p>
<p>Coincidentally, that same article can serve as a talking point to argue that the Indians <em>will not be back in the ALCS</em> next year.</p>
<p>(In the court of law, isn&#8217;t that against the rules? Using one argument to show guilt, but then using the same argument to show innocence in another tort?)
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		<title>By: Sarah Green</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53509</link>
		<dc:creator>Sarah Green</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 17:22:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Rich, they wasted him all season long. The reason he&#039;s going to win the Cy Young this year, somewhat tragically in hindsight, is that he blew Beckett away in terms of innings pitched. He had what, 5 complete games? (I am too lazy to look this up, but I think it was five.) But in the postseason, he just looked finished. Done. Like he had nothing left. Beckett just barely met the 200 innings mark during the regular season and has been not only lighting up the radar guns (they must be off, because I swear Josh Beckett doesn&#039;t hit 97/98, much less that one reported pitch of 101 mph) but doing so with surgical precision.



Now, I&#039;ve gone on the record many a time saying that I&#039;d like to see more complete games and that I think all this anxiety over pitch-counts is stupid. But watching  and comparing the performances of Sabathia and Beckett this season and this postseason has made me seriously reconsider my own beliefs.



And Nick, come on. You&#039;re just being silly! With all the many moments in this series when the game could have gone either way (and you yourself admit that the final score of last night&#039;s game does not accurately reflect how close it was) I think it&#039;s obvious that a timely hit by Nixon could have provided the necessary spark to keep innings alive and momentum going. He had gone 2-for-3 just the night before!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rich, they wasted him all season long. The reason he&#8217;s going to win the Cy Young this year, somewhat tragically in hindsight, is that he blew Beckett away in terms of innings pitched. He had what, 5 complete games? (I am too lazy to look this up, but I think it was five.) But in the postseason, he just looked finished. Done. Like he had nothing left. Beckett just barely met the 200 innings mark during the regular season and has been not only lighting up the radar guns (they must be off, because I swear Josh Beckett doesn&#8217;t hit 97/98, much less that one reported pitch of 101 mph) but doing so with surgical precision.</p>
<p>Now, I&#8217;ve gone on the record many a time saying that I&#8217;d like to see more complete games and that I think all this anxiety over pitch-counts is stupid. But watching  and comparing the performances of Sabathia and Beckett this season and this postseason has made me seriously reconsider my own beliefs.</p>
<p>And Nick, come on. You&#8217;re just being silly! With all the many moments in this series when the game could have gone either way (and you yourself admit that the final score of last night&#8217;s game does not accurately reflect how close it was) I think it&#8217;s obvious that a timely hit by Nixon could have provided the necessary spark to keep innings alive and momentum going. He had gone 2-for-3 just the night before!
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		<title>By: Rich</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53506</link>
		<dc:creator>Rich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 16:18:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://umpbump.com/press/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/#comment-53506</guid>
		<description>Hmm, we need a post dissecting management choices in this series. Did Wedge leave Betancourt in too long, or was he already finished? Did Wedge&#039;s choice of &quot;doing what we done all season&quot; (which looked brilliant after Byrd&#039;s start) lead to his lineup woes later in the series? Did Francona&#039;s willingness to play with his lineup contribute to the success (see Article 1: Kielty vs. Sabathia. Article 2: Crisp as Defensive Replacement to Center, leading to his and Ellsbury&#039;s Web Gems)?Should Okajima have been finished after the seventh?



Also, the most infuriating commentary of the series was the repeated statement that Paps never had a six-out save. While technically correct, he pitched 2 shutout innings in Game 2. It&#039;s not like his arm falls off after 5 outs.



@Sarah

The Indians didn&#039;t exactly waste a year of Sabathia&#039;s prime, as he didn&#039;t exactly do much to help himself out either. His two starts in the ALCS were simply not good. Had he made Beckett-like starts and lost, then I would say the year was wasted.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmm, we need a post dissecting management choices in this series. Did Wedge leave Betancourt in too long, or was he already finished? Did Wedge&#8217;s choice of &#8220;doing what we done all season&#8221; (which looked brilliant after Byrd&#8217;s start) lead to his lineup woes later in the series? Did Francona&#8217;s willingness to play with his lineup contribute to the success (see Article 1: Kielty vs. Sabathia. Article 2: Crisp as Defensive Replacement to Center, leading to his and Ellsbury&#8217;s Web Gems)?Should Okajima have been finished after the seventh?</p>
<p>Also, the most infuriating commentary of the series was the repeated statement that Paps never had a six-out save. While technically correct, he pitched 2 shutout innings in Game 2. It&#8217;s not like his arm falls off after 5 outs.</p>
<p>@Sarah</p>
<p>The Indians didn&#8217;t exactly waste a year of Sabathia&#8217;s prime, as he didn&#8217;t exactly do much to help himself out either. His two starts in the ALCS were simply not good. Had he made Beckett-like starts and lost, then I would say the year was wasted.
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		<title>By: Nick Kapur</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53505</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Kapur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 16:10:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Hehe, well maybe, although the Indians were outscored by the Red Sox 40-8 in four games the Red Sox won.



Trot would have needed to have added between 7 and 11 runs all by his lonesome in one of those four games, depending on which one you imagine he would have won for the Tribe, in order to have been a difference-maker.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hehe, well maybe, although the Indians were outscored by the Red Sox 40-8 in four games the Red Sox won.</p>
<p>Trot would have needed to have added between 7 and 11 runs all by his lonesome in one of those four games, depending on which one you imagine he would have won for the Tribe, in order to have been a difference-maker.
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		<title>By: Sarah Green</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53504</link>
		<dc:creator>Sarah Green</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 15:56:38 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Oh, and plus, I submit that if Nixon gets more playing time in this series, there&#039;s a chance that the Indians are going to the World Series this morning. Gutierrez hit .207 in the postseason, while Nixon hit .455. But despite giving Nixon a couple of starts, Eric Wedge pretty much stuck with the floundering Gutierrez, who had 29 at-bats verus Nixon&#039;s 11. So yeah, maybe he&#039;s old. Maybe he has nothing left. But maybe he could have been the difference-maker in this ALCS.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, and plus, I submit that if Nixon gets more playing time in this series, there&#8217;s a chance that the Indians are going to the World Series this morning. Gutierrez hit .207 in the postseason, while Nixon hit .455. But despite giving Nixon a couple of starts, Eric Wedge pretty much stuck with the floundering Gutierrez, who had 29 at-bats verus Nixon&#8217;s 11. So yeah, maybe he&#8217;s old. Maybe he has nothing left. But maybe he could have been the difference-maker in this ALCS.
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		<title>By: Nick Kapur</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53503</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Kapur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 15:49:55 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Alejandro, the White Sox played way above their heads by any and all statistical measures in 2005, when they essentially captured lightning in a bottle, so we knew they were due for a decline and were pretty much a one-year wonder.



I don&#039;t deny that the Tigers are good, but the Indians are really set up for the long haul in a really brilliant way. Almost everyone except C.C. is signed at rock-bottom prices for years to come.



The Twinkies are pretty much out of it in the near term, in my estimation. Both Santana and Nathan are free agents after next season, and they&#039;ll need a few years to develop Garza and Co.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alejandro, the White Sox played way above their heads by any and all statistical measures in 2005, when they essentially captured lightning in a bottle, so we knew they were due for a decline and were pretty much a one-year wonder.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t deny that the Tigers are good, but the Indians are really set up for the long haul in a really brilliant way. Almost everyone except C.C. is signed at rock-bottom prices for years to come.</p>
<p>The Twinkies are pretty much out of it in the near term, in my estimation. Both Santana and Nathan are free agents after next season, and they&#8217;ll need a few years to develop Garza and Co.
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		<title>By: Sarah Green</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53502</link>
		<dc:creator>Sarah Green</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 15:49:09 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Nick, I know Shapiro has done an amazing job on his core players. But he needs to pay attention this offseason to the &quot;role player&quot; guys. October is where depth counts.



Other UmpBumpers, offline, Nick has been bashing my brain in with the utterly amazing, ridiculously talented, unspeakably orgasmic players that the Indians have coming up in their farm system. Plus, he&#039;s shown me a much more comprehensive website for tracking player contracts than the hodgepodge of sources I was using before. So, uncle. I give in! Yes, the Indians are going into winter already in good shape for next year. Nonetheless, they just wasted a year of C.C. Sabathia&#039;s prime. They&#039;ll never get it back. And 2008 is currently the last year on his contract. It&#039;s not like C.C. Sabathias just grow on trees. So I think my point about &quot;they need to win now&quot; still holds, only doubly so for next year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick, I know Shapiro has done an amazing job on his core players. But he needs to pay attention this offseason to the &#8220;role player&#8221; guys. October is where depth counts.</p>
<p>Other UmpBumpers, offline, Nick has been bashing my brain in with the utterly amazing, ridiculously talented, unspeakably orgasmic players that the Indians have coming up in their farm system. Plus, he&#8217;s shown me a much more comprehensive website for tracking player contracts than the hodgepodge of sources I was using before. So, uncle. I give in! Yes, the Indians are going into winter already in good shape for next year. Nonetheless, they just wasted a year of C.C. Sabathia&#8217;s prime. They&#8217;ll never get it back. And 2008 is currently the last year on his contract. It&#8217;s not like C.C. Sabathias just grow on trees. So I think my point about &#8220;they need to win now&#8221; still holds, only doubly so for next year.
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		<title>By: Nick Kapur</title>
		<link>http://umpbump.com/press/2007/10/22/five-or-more-thoughts-after-last-nights-game/comment-page-1/#comment-53501</link>
		<dc:creator>Nick Kapur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 15:37:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Sarah, this is &lt;a href=&quot;http://umpbump.com/press/draw-your-own-conclusions/ rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;the second time&lt;/a&gt; you&#039;ve suggested that the Indians are going to be losing a lot of key players to free agency!



But that is simply not true at all!



Quite the opposite, in fact.



Out of 25 guys, the Indians only have 3 true free agents - Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon, and Chris Gomez.



Lofton was a 2 month rental, Nixon is an aging 4th outfielder who has almost nothing left, and Gomez was a non-entity.



Even if the Indians sign nobody at all (although of course they will), these three guys could be easily replaced from within.



Byrd and Borowski have team options at very reasonable prices, so they can be kept, and if they are let go, it&#039;s only because the Indians *want* to let them go!



And besides, Borowski was only the 5th best player in that &#039;pen this year and Byrd might be facing a suspension, so the Indians might actually want to just let them walk.



But all in all, the Indians really only have to lose 2(!) guys out of 25. That&#039;s amazingly few, and probably means the Indians have the least work cut out for them this offseason of any team.



Mark Shapiro has really done an amazing job.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sarah, this is <a href="http://umpbump.com/press/draw-your-own-conclusions/ rel="nofollow">the second time</a> you&#8217;ve suggested that the Indians are going to be losing a lot of key players to free agency!</p>
<p>But that is simply not true at all!</p>
<p>Quite the opposite, in fact.</p>
<p>Out of 25 guys, the Indians only have 3 true free agents &#8211; Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon, and Chris Gomez.</p>
<p>Lofton was a 2 month rental, Nixon is an aging 4th outfielder who has almost nothing left, and Gomez was a non-entity.</p>
<p>Even if the Indians sign nobody at all (although of course they will), these three guys could be easily replaced from within.</p>
<p>Byrd and Borowski have team options at very reasonable prices, so they can be kept, and if they are let go, it&#8217;s only because the Indians *want* to let them go!</p>
<p>And besides, Borowski was only the 5th best player in that &#8216;pen this year and Byrd might be facing a suspension, so the Indians might actually want to just let them walk.</p>
<p>But all in all, the Indians really only have to lose 2(!) guys out of 25. That&#8217;s amazingly few, and probably means the Indians have the least work cut out for them this offseason of any team.</p>
<p>Mark Shapiro has really done an amazing job.
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