Comments on: There’s always room for improvement. http://umpbump.com/press/2007/12/30/theres-always-room-for-improvement/ In-your-face baseball commentary Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:48:13 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2007/12/30/theres-always-room-for-improvement/comment-page-1/#comment-54220 Paul Moro Mon, 31 Dec 2007 14:48:16 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/theres-always-room-for-improvement/#comment-54220 Honestly, even if the Mets somehow get Santana, that still may add only two or three wins, tops. Every team in the NL East has some pretty big flaws. Don't get me wrong, I like Hamels and Myers. Maybe not as much as you do, but they're solid. And I definitely am not as high on Kendrick as you are. The problem with him is that his Fielding Independent ERA was 4.90. For a guy who strikes out as few batters as he does (3.6K/9), he gets hit way too hard (21.1% Line Drive Pct). When the LD% is that high, and the strikeouts are that low, you're walking a tightrope. His top comparables in those two areas are Tom Glavine and Braden Looper (they have slightly higher K #s and more walks), which doesn't bode well. Which is essentially why people aren't too high on the guy. Honestly, even if the Mets somehow get Santana, that still may add only two or three wins, tops. Every team in the NL East has some pretty big flaws. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hamels and Myers. Maybe not as much as you do, but they’re solid. And I definitely am not as high on Kendrick as you are. The problem with him is that his Fielding Independent ERA was 4.90. For a guy who strikes out as few batters as he does (3.6K/9), he gets hit way too hard (21.1% Line Drive Pct). When the LD% is that high, and the strikeouts are that low, you’re walking a tightrope. His top comparables in those two areas are Tom Glavine and Braden Looper (they have slightly higher K #s and more walks), which doesn’t bode well. Which is essentially why people aren’t too high on the guy.

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]]> By: coley http://umpbump.com/press/2007/12/30/theres-always-room-for-improvement/comment-page-1/#comment-54222 coley Mon, 31 Dec 2007 05:10:01 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/theres-always-room-for-improvement/#comment-54222 Paul, you're right of course. Winning an extra six games will be a challenge. And the Mets will be good again. And don't forget about the Braves. I think that team is going to be scary, especially if Teixeira picks up where he left off last year. If Chipper stays healthy and Smoltz remains dominant (big ifs, I know)...watch out. But the Phillies added a top of the line starter in Myers, and compensated for that move by acquiring a top of the line closer in Brad Lidge. At least, we all hope he's going to be a top of the line closer. Maybe 95 games is optimistic. But 91 or 92 is reasonable, I think, considering the upgrades this team made, and considering how little the other NL East powers have done. Of course, this conversation never happened if the Mets trade for Johan Santana tomorrow. Paul, you’re right of course. Winning an extra six games will be a challenge. And the Mets will be good again. And don’t forget about the Braves. I think that team is going to be scary, especially if Teixeira picks up where he left off last year. If Chipper stays healthy and Smoltz remains dominant (big ifs, I know)…watch out.

But the Phillies added a top of the line starter in Myers, and compensated for that move by acquiring a top of the line closer in Brad Lidge. At least, we all hope he’s going to be a top of the line closer.

Maybe 95 games is optimistic. But 91 or 92 is reasonable, I think, considering the upgrades this team made, and considering how little the other NL East powers have done.

Of course, this conversation never happened if the Mets trade for Johan Santana tomorrow.

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2007/12/30/theres-always-room-for-improvement/comment-page-1/#comment-54223 Paul Moro Sun, 30 Dec 2007 19:55:25 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/theres-always-room-for-improvement/#comment-54223 Coley, do you know how hard it is to turn an 89-win team into a 95-win team? Six more wins may not sound like much, but when the win totals are that high, it's really, really hard to do it. And I'm not going to argue with the fact that the Phillies have a really good shot again this year, but consider this - had we replayed the last three weeks of the 2007 season over again 100 times, the Mets probably would have held the Phils off 97 times out of 100. What happened in actuality was way against the odds. The computers had the Mets winning the division with 97% certainty. The Mets didn't get much better (if at all) so far in the off-season, but they didn't get any worse either. And you of all people should know it's pointless to guarantee any win total to any pitcher (talking about Myers here). It's a meaningless exercise and it can't really be predicted. Coley, do you know how hard it is to turn an 89-win team into a 95-win team? Six more wins may not sound like much, but when the win totals are that high, it’s really, really hard to do it.

And I’m not going to argue with the fact that the Phillies have a really good shot again this year, but consider this – had we replayed the last three weeks of the 2007 season over again 100 times, the Mets probably would have held the Phils off 97 times out of 100. What happened in actuality was way against the odds. The computers had the Mets winning the division with 97% certainty. The Mets didn’t get much better (if at all) so far in the off-season, but they didn’t get any worse either.

And you of all people should know it’s pointless to guarantee any win total to any pitcher (talking about Myers here). It’s a meaningless exercise and it can’t really be predicted.

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]]> By: Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com http://umpbump.com/press/2007/12/30/theres-always-room-for-improvement/comment-page-1/#comment-54221 Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com Sun, 30 Dec 2007 14:50:04 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/theres-always-room-for-improvement/#comment-54221 I tend to agree with you, and it surprises me how little credit is given to the Lidge trade. Sure, Lidge could wilt under the heat of Philly sports fans after a bad outing, but I don\'t think so. Plus, when you consider what the rest of the NL East has done this year to improve themselves -- nada -- I think the Phils are lookin\' good. I tend to agree with you, and it surprises me how little credit is given to the Lidge trade. Sure, Lidge could wilt under the heat of Philly sports fans after a bad outing, but I don\’t think so. Plus, when you consider what the rest of the NL East has done this year to improve themselves — nada — I think the Phils are lookin\’ good.

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