This is one in a series of posts in which we break down each team’s wily offseason maneuvers and tragic offseason blunders.

2007 NL East ChampsLast season Jimmy Rollins proclaimed the Phillies the “team to beat.” And then they promptly went out and got swept by the Braves to open the season. But then they righted the ship. And then the Mets collapsed down the stretch. And then the Phillies won the NL East!

This season, the Phils were understood to be the favorites to win the division. They have guts. They have stick-to-it-iveness. They have moxie.But now the Mets have Johan Santana. And all of a sudden moxie seems like a not such a big deal.

Are the Phillies still the team to beat in 2008? No. Don’t be crazy. Johan Santana has shifted the balance of power in the NL East. But Phillies GM Pat Gillick made a few moves of his own this offseason.

First, Gillick traded a fourth outfielder and a couple of midlevel prospects for Astros closer Brad Lidge. This was a high risk, potentially high reward move. Lidge was once great. But he’s got a fragile psyche. How will he hold up in front of arguably the toughest fans in the game? That’s the million-dollar question. If he returns to elite status, the Phils will be in great shape. If he doesn’t, there’s no clear Plan B.

Acquiring Lidge enables the Phillies to move Brett Myers back into the rotation. Myers and Cole Hamels will be a formidable 1-2 punch. After them comes Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer and … well, then it gets tricky.

Gillick signed SP Chad Durbin in the offseason. Durbin, who made 19 starts and 17 relief appearances last season for the Detroit Tigers, will compete with Adam Eaton for the fifth starter’s job but could find himself in the bullpen. Durbin has three times pitched in more than 20 games in a season (2001, 2004 and 2007) and he has not once kept his ERA under 4.00. Only twice did he keep it under 5.00, and that was just barely.

Next, Gillick signed Giants 3B Pedro Feliz (two years, $8.5 million), who is a prolific defensive player with some power and a propensity to swing and miss. He’ll help keep the ball in the infield. He should be most welcomed by second-year starter Kyle Kendrick, who is a ground ball pitcher and doesn’t record many strikeouts.

Third, the Phillies signed RF Geoff Jenkins (two-years, $13 million) who will platoon with Jayson Werth. Jenkins had a career-high 34 home runs and 94 RBIs in 2000 for Milwaukee, and he thinks he can replicate those numbers at homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park, surrounded by Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Burrell. But, realistically, he’s not going to get enough at bats to hit that many homers. You know what number I’d love to see him replicate? .375. That was his OBP in 148 games in 2005. For what it’s worth, Jenkins OBP has gone steadily down the last few years. But he’sa career .288 hitter against right-handed pitchers, so he should be an ideal platoon player.

The Jenkins aquisition and the loss of CF Aaron Rowand to free agency will move Shane Victorino to center.

Other moves you may have missed: The Phils traded for OF Chris Snelling. Though he missed most of last season with a knee injury, the 25-year-old has a .311 career average in the minors with 46 homers in 493 games. The team also acquired utility infielder Eric Bruntlett, who hit .246 with 14 RBIs last season, seeing time at shortstop, third base and the outfield.

Acquisitions: Brad Lidge, Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, Chad Durbin, So Taguchi, Eric Bruntlett, Chris Snelling

Losses: Aaron Rowand, Jon Lieber, Tadahito Iguchi, Kyle Lohse, Rod Barajas, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, Abraham Nunez

Projected lineup and pitching staff:

1. CF Shane Victorino

2. SS Jimmy Rollins

3. 2B Chase Utley

4. 1B Ryan Howard

5. LF Pat Burrell

6. RF Jayson Werth/Geoff Jenkins

7. 3B Pedro Feliz

8. C Carlos Ruiz

9. Pitcher

SP Cole Hamels

SP Brett Myers

SP Kyle Kendrick

SP Jamie Moyer

SP Adam Eaton/Chad Durbin

RP JC Romero

CL Brad Lidge

Offseason Grade: B+

The Phillies needed to upgrade their starting pitching and they did, by moving Myers to the rotation. They replaced Myers with Lidge. They replaced Rowand with Jenkins. And they upgraded at third base by signing Feliz. And yet all of this seems rather ho-hum when you consider the Phils still have Adam Eaton and the Mets have Johan Santana.

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

5 Responses to “Hot Offseason Action: Philadelphia Phillies”

  1. Sarah Green says:

    Coley, a fourth outfielder and a couple of midlevel prospects for a closer is not a high-risk move. Sure, there’s the chance Lidge won’t work out. But if that’s so, the Phillies would still have time to try and get a better closer at the trade deadline. I think that’s a low-risk, high-reward move.

    You’re right about Brett Myers, though. He does have a formidable one-two punch.

  2. Coley Ward says:

    Beginning the season with Brad Lidge as the closer is indeed a bit risky, because … you know … he’s Brad Lidge. It gets riskier when you consider how few options the Phillies have should Lidge falter. They’ve already stated that Myers won’t be moved to the bullpen, regardless. So that leaves them with JC Romero — who got CUT last season — and Tom Gordon, who is clearly nearing the end of the line.

    As you point out, trading for Brad Lidge wasn’t risky, since the Phils didn’t give up much. But entering the season with no obvious back up plan should Lidge not survive the boobirds seems like a bold move to me.

  3. Michael Bourn is better than people think.

  4. As someone who has seen the ascent of Michael Bourn, he is, almost to a T, a Willy Taveras clone. The Phillies have Willy Taveras Squared in Greg Golson, but he might not be Major League ready until next season, and more likely 2010.

    The biggest lost in the Lidge trade was Mike Costanzo, who was, by most accounts, the Phillies’ third baseman of the future. And we know how much third base has been a struggle following the Mike Schmidt era for the Phillies besides a few Scott Rolen seasons.

    Brad Lidge gets a bad rap for having “a fragile psyche.” It’s akin to the argument that David Eckstein or Aaron Rowand are awesome because they’re “gritty.” Lidge put up a 131 ERA , struck out 88 batters in 67 innings, and put up a WHIP of 1.254 last season. Not too shabby, right?

    Acquiring Lidge was the key move of the offseason for Gillick because it effectively gave the Phillies what was then the best starter acquisition by moving Brett Myers back to the bullpen. Of course, then we saw Dan Haren and Johan Santana get moved, and an Erik Bedard deal is oh so close (and the Phillies couldn’t even begin to dream about putting together a package for them).

    I give the Phillies an A for their off-season moves. And before you call me out for being biased, remember, I’m the guy who campaigned for David Wright over Jimmy Rollins for MVP. :)

  5. That’s a 131 ERA-plus, by the way. That\’s ERA measured against the league average and adjusted for ballpark factors.

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