Comments on: Computers love the A’s http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/ In-your-face baseball commentary Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:48:13 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54755 Paul Moro Thu, 21 Feb 2008 18:07:31 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54755 I'm an abashed Jack Cust fan. And Daric Barton is so under the radar. But Mark Ellis really may be the most underrated player in the game. I feel like Dan Johnson never fulfills his expectations, though. Maybe this year. I’m an abashed Jack Cust fan. And Daric Barton is so under the radar. But Mark Ellis really may be the most underrated player in the game. I feel like Dan Johnson never fulfills his expectations, though. Maybe this year.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54754 Nick Kapur Thu, 21 Feb 2008 11:51:44 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54754 For what it's worth, I went and looked up the 2008 ZiPS projections for Harden, Chavez, and Crosby. It doesn't have any of them playing a whole season, but apparently they play enough that the A's might contend. Harden is projected to make 15 starts, tossing 92 innings. Chavez is projected to play 131 games, and Crosby is projected to play in 94. What is also notable is that Jack Cust, Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Dan Johnson, Eric Chavez, Chris Denorfia, and Mark Ellis are ALL projected to put up OPS's above last year's league average for their positions, leaving only Crosby and Emil Brown to fall below average out of projected A's starters. So yeah, it's not like the A's are going to be just throwing scrubs or AA players out there this year the way that, say, the Marlins did after their fire sales. For what it’s worth, I went and looked up the 2008 ZiPS projections for Harden, Chavez, and Crosby. It doesn’t have any of them playing a whole season, but apparently they play enough that the A’s might contend.

Harden is projected to make 15 starts, tossing 92 innings. Chavez is projected to play 131 games, and Crosby is projected to play in 94.

What is also notable is that Jack Cust, Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Dan Johnson, Eric Chavez, Chris Denorfia, and Mark Ellis are ALL projected to put up OPS’s above last year’s league average for their positions, leaving only Crosby and Emil Brown to fall below average out of projected A’s starters. So yeah, it’s not like the A’s are going to be just throwing scrubs or AA players out there this year the way that, say, the Marlins did after their fire sales.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54753 Nick Kapur Wed, 20 Feb 2008 14:45:44 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54753 Yeah, I think it just goes to show that the A's are actually still going to have an okay team, despite the trades. A lot of people are saying the A's are going to lose 100 games this year, but I don't see it. Billy Beane is not just running random guys out there - he actually has got reasonable major-league level players at every position, and several young guys who still have upside. And while I could easily see Chavez, Crosby, and Harden being injured all year again, at the same time it is also not entirely inconceivable that one or more of them could actually come back and have a good year. Plus, there is Beane's talent for finding spare parts through out the year. So yeah, computers can be wrong, and even if the computer is right, a 47% chance for the A's to win the division still means there's a 53% chance that they won't, so if the A's don't win this year, it doesn't even mean the computer was wrong. But it's not like the A's are going to be complete doormats in the AL West. Yeah, I think it just goes to show that the A’s are actually still going to have an okay team, despite the trades. A lot of people are saying the A’s are going to lose 100 games this year, but I don’t see it. Billy Beane is not just running random guys out there – he actually has got reasonable major-league level players at every position, and several young guys who still have upside. And while I could easily see Chavez, Crosby, and Harden being injured all year again, at the same time it is also not entirely inconceivable that one or more of them could actually come back and have a good year. Plus, there is Beane’s talent for finding spare parts through out the year.

So yeah, computers can be wrong, and even if the computer is right, a 47% chance for the A’s to win the division still means there’s a 53% chance that they won’t, so if the A’s don’t win this year, it doesn’t even mean the computer was wrong. But it’s not like the A’s are going to be complete doormats in the AL West.

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]]> By: coley http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54752 coley Wed, 20 Feb 2008 06:02:32 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54752 Nick, that's crazy. I totally misunderstood that USS Mariner post. I thought he had to disable Harden b/c the computer didn't take injuries into account. None of us writes for armchairgm, Sam. Nick, that’s crazy. I totally misunderstood that USS Mariner post. I thought he had to disable Harden b/c the computer didn’t take injuries into account.

None of us writes for armchairgm, Sam.

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]]> By: Sam http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54751 Sam Wed, 20 Feb 2008 04:39:04 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54751 Hey love the posts. All very interesting. Check out my stuff. www.sammonroe.net do you by chance write on armchairgm? Hey love the posts. All very interesting. Check out my stuff.

http://www.sammonroe.net

do you by chance write on armchairgm?

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54750 Nick Kapur Wed, 20 Feb 2008 04:28:40 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54750 Yeah, I saw that USS Mariners post too. And you know what the amazing part is? I believe that that computer projection maybe actually *did* take injuries into account, because it used the ZiPS projections, which not only project a players stats, but projects games played as well, based on prior injury history. To make that computer not say that the A's would be a slight favorite, that guy had to go in and forcibly disable Rich Harden and other players for the whole year. Yeah, I saw that USS Mariners post too. And you know what the amazing part is? I believe that that computer projection maybe actually *did* take injuries into account, because it used the ZiPS projections, which not only project a players stats, but projects games played as well, based on prior injury history. To make that computer not say that the A’s would be a slight favorite, that guy had to go in and forcibly disable Rich Harden and other players for the whole year.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/19/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/comment-page-1/#comment-54749 Sarah Green Wed, 20 Feb 2008 02:08:44 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/computers-and-mc-hammer-love-the-as/#comment-54749 How about "hardball ninja" or "supreme swami of the hot stove"? How about “hardball ninja” or “supreme swami of the hot stove”?

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