Comments on: Hot Offseason Action: Seattle Mariners http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/20/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/ In-your-face baseball commentary Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:44:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/20/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/comment-page-1/#comment-54761 Sarah Green Fri, 22 Feb 2008 02:34:39 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/#comment-54761 I would read it, Paul. Would I understand it? Now that's an interesting question. I would read it, Paul.

Would I understand it? Now that’s an interesting question.

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]]> By: coley http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/20/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/comment-page-1/#comment-54760 coley Fri, 22 Feb 2008 01:47:38 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/#comment-54760 Danny, I'm pretty sure he'll pitch in long relief. But maybe he'll pitch in AAA if he doesn't have a good spring. Danny, I’m pretty sure he’ll pitch in long relief. But maybe he’ll pitch in AAA if he doesn’t have a good spring.

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]]> By: Danny O http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/20/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/comment-page-1/#comment-54759 Danny O Fri, 22 Feb 2008 00:07:28 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/#comment-54759 So where does this put Horacio Ramirez? Is he expected to be in the pen? So where does this put Horacio Ramirez? Is he expected to be in the pen?

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/20/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/comment-page-1/#comment-54758 Paul Moro Thu, 21 Feb 2008 18:10:40 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/#comment-54758 I think you have a solid point here, Nick. And I do agree that bullpens have something to do with it. I just used Pyth formulas because it's easy to convey. I think I need to look at the Mariners front three and their run differentials in the games they pitched. Future project. That I think only you will read. I think you have a solid point here, Nick. And I do agree that bullpens have something to do with it. I just used Pyth formulas because it’s easy to convey. I think I need to look at the Mariners front three and their run differentials in the games they pitched. Future project. That I think only you will read.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/02/20/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/comment-page-1/#comment-54757 Nick Kapur Thu, 21 Feb 2008 11:44:48 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/hot-offseason-action-seattle-mariners-2/#comment-54757 I am, of course, extremely sympathetic to the Pythagorean wins argument that the Mariners played above their heads last season, and do think they were somewhat lucky. However, there is an emerging theory that a team with a great bullpen and a truly god-awful back end of the rotation is very likely to have a Pythagorean wins projection that is below its actual ability. And I actually subscribe to this theory. I think it is already pretty well established that teams with outstanding bullpens generally can outperform their pythagorean projection, because they are yielding less of their runs in the highest leverage situations. But it also seems plausible to me that a truly awful backend of the rotation is skewing the pythagorean results as well, because the team is giving up TONS of runs in bunches, and as we know, the way to screw up your pythagorean projection is to score or yield tons of runs all at once. Now I'm not at all sure if the Mariners were really an 88-win team last year talent-wise, but I think it's plausible that they may secretly have actually been an 82 win team or something like. And if you replace your 5th starter with an ace, which is essentially what the Mariners have done with Bedard, then you could easily be adding 5 or 6 wins, easily putting you on the verge of contention. I'm not saying I like the Bedard trade, because I don't, but I can't say it was truly horrible, because I'm not convinced that it is entirely impossible for the Mariners to contend this year. I'll tell you one thing - if the Mariners were ever to wake up and realize that they just have to cut Vidro and eat his contract, and then go out and sign Barry Bonds to be their DH, I think you'd have to say they would instantly become a contender. I am, of course, extremely sympathetic to the Pythagorean wins argument that the Mariners played above their heads last season, and do think they were somewhat lucky.

However, there is an emerging theory that a team with a great bullpen and a truly god-awful back end of the rotation is very likely to have a Pythagorean wins projection that is below its actual ability. And I actually subscribe to this theory. I think it is already pretty well established that teams with outstanding bullpens generally can outperform their pythagorean projection, because they are yielding less of their runs in the highest leverage situations. But it also seems plausible to me that a truly awful backend of the rotation is skewing the pythagorean results as well, because the team is giving up TONS of runs in bunches, and as we know, the way to screw up your pythagorean projection is to score or yield tons of runs all at once.

Now I’m not at all sure if the Mariners were really an 88-win team last year talent-wise, but I think it’s plausible that they may secretly have actually been an 82 win team or something like. And if you replace your 5th starter with an ace, which is essentially what the Mariners have done with Bedard, then you could easily be adding 5 or 6 wins, easily putting you on the verge of contention.

I’m not saying I like the Bedard trade, because I don’t, but I can’t say it was truly horrible, because I’m not convinced that it is entirely impossible for the Mariners to contend this year. I’ll tell you one thing – if the Mariners were ever to wake up and realize that they just have to cut Vidro and eat his contract, and then go out and sign Barry Bonds to be their DH, I think you’d have to say they would instantly become a contender.

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