Milestone Watch: 2008 Edition
With the regular season starting just one week from today—when the Red Sox play the A’s in Tokyo—it’s time to take a look at what milestones players could achieve this year and how probable they are.
Probable:
Ken Griffey Jr.’s 600th home run. Junior has 593 jacks and is a lock for notching No. 600 this year. Plus, he needs 116 more bases to hit 5,000 total bases. He had more than 200 in each of the past three seasons, so unless he suffers a truly hideous injury, he should also surpass this mark easily.
Manny Ramirez’s 500th home run. Manny has 490 regular season dingers heading into this year. It’s not a question of whether he’ll hit that 500th round tripper, but when. I’m predicting late May, possibly early June if he has a slow start.
Gary Sheffield’s 500th home run. He’s got 480 right now. He’ll knock in No. 500 sometime in August.
Chipper Jones’ 400th home run. He needs just 14 more to hit the mark, and he has never had a season in the bigs with fewer than 20.
Juan Pierre’s 400th stolen base. The man steals an average of 54 per season, and swiped 64 last year. Plus, he’s played 162 games for the last five seasons running. Think he’ll be able to get the 11 more he needs to reach 400? Yeah, so do I.
Francisco Cordero’s 200th save. I think saves are sort of a stupid stat, but it’s still a benchmark. Of something. He needs 23 to get there. (Note: So does Eric Gagne. See below.)
John Smoltz’s 3,000th strikeout. He needs 25. For Smoltz, that’s, like, four mediocre starts.
Greg Maddux’s 5,000th inning. He needs 185 and two-thirds to get there. The man’s a horse. He’ll get ‘er done (and log his 20,000th batter faced in the process).
Tim Wakefield’s 100th wild pitch. He’s just 8 away, he throws a knuckleball, and his personal catcher just got released. Enough said.
Tom Glavine’s 200th loss. He’s at 199 right now. This is as close to a lock as preseason predictions get.
Possible:
Randy Johnson’s 300th win. Last year, when Tom Glavine notched his 300th victory, certain sportswriters wondered whether we’d ever see such a feat again. But it could happen as soon as this year, as the Big Unit needs just 16 more victories to get there. Yeah, he only had 4 last year. But in the three previous seasons, when he was 40, 41, and 42, he had 16, 17, and 17, respectively. Wonder why he keeps having back surgery? This milestone is why. He’ll keep coming back until he hits that nice, round number—if not this year, next year. The D-Backs are a good, young team, and they’ll help him get there.
Andruw Jones’ 400th home run. He needs 32 to get there, and has had five seasons with more than that number. On the other hand, he’s also logged five seasons with fewer. Toss-up.
Vladimir Guerrero’s 400th home run. Vlad needs 35 to get it done, which would be a very good year for him. However, it’s entirely possible—especially in a lineup strengthened by Torii Hunter.
Omar Vizquel’s 400th stolen base. Yes, he’s lost a step with age. But the odds are even on him snagging the 20 he needs to reach the milestone.
Eric Gagne’s 200th save. Can he get 23? The man he’s replacing in Milwaukee will do it (see above) but the French Canadian hurler hasn’t saved even 20 games since 2004. On the other hand, ‘04 marked a three-year period in which he logged 152 saves. Anything could happen.
Tom Glavine’s 700th start. He needs 31, and the last time he had fewer was in 1995. On the other hand, he’ll be 42 this season and could run utterly out of gas.
Randy Johnson’s 100th complete game. He only needs two more, but he did snag two in 2006, four in 2005, and four in 2004. It’s surprisingly possible.
Improbable:
Barry Bonds’ 3000th hit. It seems unlikely, at this point, that the indicted Barry will find employment this season, forcing him to retire just 65 hits shy of this storied benchmark (he had 94 last year in 126 games). He’ll also retire just 14 games short of 3,000 and 4 RBI short of 2,000. (Crazy side note: Barry Bonds is the active leader with 688 intentional walks. Who is number two? Ken Griffey Jr….with 230. Wow.)
Roger Clemens’ 5,000th inning. It seems that the Rocket has retired for good this time. He’s forever going to be 83 and a third from 5,000.
Johnny Damon’s 100th triple. Okay, this is a bit silly. There’s no “100 triples” club. But Damon, 33, is third on the active list of leaders in triples (after fortysomethings Steve Finley and Kenny Lofton) and needs just 13 three-baggers to break the century mark. The odds of him doing it this year are extremely slim—his legs just aren’t what they were when he was in his 20s—but he could definitely do it next year.
Jeff Kent’s 400th home run. Like Guerrero, he needs 35. However, Kent has only hit that many once his his career. If Kent wants to reach 400, the 40-year old will have to hang around another year. That shouldn’t be a problem for the man whose watchword has long been durability.
Jason Giambi’s 400th home run. Once, Giambi seemed a lock for reaching this milestone. But once, he was on the juice. He needs 36 homers, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I just don’t think he’s healthy enough to get there this year.
You can put your over-unders in the comments section. If you’re right on the money, and we remember to check back in October, you might get an UmpBump sticker! Oooh, swag!
February 18th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
That Kyle Kendrick prank was epic. I know ballplayers prank each other all the time, but this one was orchestrated by the front office with help from the local cable station.
Moreover, this prank came during the same week the Pat Burrell “Man or Machine” t-shirts debuted. It’s hard to imagine any of this stuff happening if Larry Bowa was still in charge.
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February 18th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
I found it funny that the guy they claimed was coming over to Philly from Yomiuri had two last names. Kobayashi Iwamura.
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February 18th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I guess players will have to take advantage of the All-Star break or a stint on the DL if they wanna get any UFH (or just plain old FH) going.
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February 18th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Well, Danny, Jason Giambi managed to get a UFH nod while playing for the Yankees. So I wouldn’t rule any of them out.
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February 18th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Do you think Kendrick feels like the whole organization and his own agent made him look like a complete dope? Would they have done this to a pitcher that they respected or were counting on? I wonder if in the long run he may feel like they don’t value him. They went to great lengths to make him look like a moron, it seems a bit extreme. I also wonder how it feels to have something like this pulled over on you by a jerk like Brett Myers. I can’t believe he would conspire with “retards” in the media to prank a teammate.
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February 18th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
HHGH?
(Human Hair Growth Hormone)
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February 18th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
I don’t know Melissa, I think this is the kind of thing rookies have to put up with. Kendrick didn’t get his dose of prankage last year, so he gets it this time around. He’ll dish it out next spring! He should just be glad he didn’t have to shave his head or dress in drag. This is just how jocks show love to fellow jocks!
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February 18th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Also, @ Paul, I love that they used the family name of the famous competitive eater. That’s just so silly!
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February 18th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Melissa, lighten up. I’m not going to defend Brett Myers. I don’t know him. I’ve never met him. But I wouldn’t assume that just because he’s done and said some stupid things that everybody in the Phillies clubhouse thinks he’s a jerk. Sure, it’s possible Kendrick feels like a little bit of an idiot. But it’s just as likely that he feels a little more comfortable now. A little more like one of the guys. Maybe the team sensed he was putting too much pressure on himself and they wanted to do something to loosen him up. And maybe it’ll work.
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February 19th, 2008 at 12:45 am
Yeah, I wasn’t implying that Myers’ teammates think he is a jerk, that’s strictly my opinion. I don’t “know” him either I just know that he likes to smack his wife around in public and refer to media members as “retarded.” He’s probably just a prankster at heart, a really great guy no doubt. I would imagine that Myers reaction wouldn’t have been very good natured if this prank had been pulled on him. I know baseball players are notorious for pulling pranks on one another but this seems like a much more elaborate scheme. I just wonder if maybe they went a little too far. The fact that it was so public could cause Kendrick to be a little embarrassed or even humiliated but hopefully that won’t be the case.
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March 18th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Concerning Juan Pierre’s milestone, the only question remains is what uniform will he be wearing when he reaches this mark! With Either, Kemp & Jones he’s going to be pinched for playing time, don’t you think?
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March 19th, 2008 at 2:34 am
I like the milestone possibilities here. As for the Unit…he’s looking strong so far this spring…believe he’s going to get to 300…and maybe right on the number..and then retire.
As for Bonds…would like to see him in a D-backs uniform this year. He provides that big bat for one year that this team so desperately needs.
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March 19th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Peter, yes, the Dodgers have too many outfielders. But on the other hand, you never know what Joe Torre will do when it comes down to choosing the established veteran or the younger player with something to prove. Oh, wait…. :)
And @ Andrew, I really hope Johnson gets to 300. He’s just such an awesome pitcher; I had sort of forgotten just how awesome, until I was looking over his stats for this post. But I must disagree about Bonds. I think any team who signed him now would be in for a massive headache as they tried to rationalize the signing of a player indicted for perjury—and for a still-young team like the Diamondbacks, that could be an especially fatal distraction as the season wears on. Yeah, they need a power bat. But they don’t need all that baggage.
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March 19th, 2008 at 9:36 am
You forgot or overlooked or simple ignored…
You forgot or overlooked or simple ignored…
Johan Santana 100th Win. Needs just 7 more wins.
Jason Isringhausen 300th save. Needs just 19 if he can stay healthy.
And Cheater Jeter’s 250th hit. Needs 144 this season to reach 2500 on his career. Yank fans have been talking for the last 2 years about when he’ll reach 3000 hits.
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March 19th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Doug, to be fair, there’s a lot of guys in line for their 100th win this year. I mean hell, Darren Oliver has a shot (well, maybe not, but still…)
Same with the 2500th hit. It might be a big deal here in NYC, but Pudge, Lofton, and Frank Thomas, may all get there too.
Izzy’s 300th save is a good point though.
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March 19th, 2008 at 10:39 am
How about Greg Maddux’s 350th win?
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March 19th, 2008 at 11:24 am
And Armando Benitez is in line for his 300th save too. If he gets out of Triple A this year.
I thought about the 2,500th hit thing for a few guys. I didn’t forget it, overlook it, or ignore it. I just thought to myself, “since when is there a 2,500 hits club?” Same for 350 wins, though, yes, Maddux is only 3 away from that benchmark. To heck with these halfway marks!
What’s actually more interesting to me about Maddux is that, if he doesn’t retire until he’s Roger Clemens’ age (45) and pitches well enough to notch 14 wins a year, he could top 400 wins. Now that would be hot (if improbable).
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March 20th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
The Sox have given up some great relievers over the years (Sparky Lyle, Dennis Eckersley), but if Gagne comes back strong it would be one of the wierdest things in the history of baseball. Perhaps you have a guilty conscience for the things you have said about him?
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March 20th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Whoah, Tom, hyperbole much? One of the weirdest things in baseball history? Gagne had an ERA of 2.16 and a WHIP of 1.05 with the Rangers last season. Let’s not place too much importance on Gagne’s struggles over 18 innings as a Red Sox.
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March 20th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
The weirdest thing about Gagne’s struggles with Boston was his BABIP, which was in the .400’s in a Red Sox uniform (and nearly twice what it was in Texas). Surely, part of that is just luck—good luck in Texas, bad luck in Boston. After all, his K/9 was actually *better* in Boston. But part of the problem shows up in his groundball-to-flyball ratio, which deteriorated a bit in Boston. You won’t see the impact of that in his HR rate, but it does show up in his rate of giving up doubles—he coughed up 8 in Beantown, only 4 in Texas (and pitched almost twice as many innings in Texas). He also induced 3 DPs in Texas and none in Boston—it’s hard to get out of a jam when you can’t get a grounder to save your life.
That said, the man still knows where the strike zone is. If he can keep the ball down, he’ll be fine. Not the Gagne of yore, perhaps, but fine.
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April 4th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
One inning doesn’t say that much, especially in spring, but if I’m right I’ll graciously accept apologies. I hope I’m wrong, but I’d say he’s finished.
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