Where are all the American League stars?
For years now it has been established wisdom that most of the top-shelf talent in baseball eventually gravitates to the American League, due to the presence of big spending teams such the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers. This dominance of the AL over the NL has also been perceived in the AL’s recent maulings of the NL in the All-Star Game, the AL’s manhandling of the NL in Interleague Play, the perceived superiority of the recent AL World Series representatives, and the lists of big-name free agents who defect from the NL to the AL each season.
But even the most cursory of glances at the leaderboards this season yields the surprising impression that most of baseball’s biggest starts currently play in the National League, while most of the big name players in the American League are aging, injured, or both.
For example:
- The top five MLB leaders in batting average are all in the National League, as are 7 of the top 10.
- The top five MLB leaders in home runs are all in the NL, as are 7 of the top 10. Fourteen players in the NL have at least 7 or more homers, compared to a mere 4 players in the AL.
- The top eight leaders in OBP are all in the NL.
- All ten qualified players in the majors with an OPS over 1.000 are in the National League (and that is not even counting non-qualified Micah Owings). In fact, the AL only has 11 players with an OPS that is even over .900, compared to 23 in the National League.
While it is still early in the season and it is still possible that we could be seeing some sort of statistical fluke here, I think we may be seeing the beginning of a trend in which power begins to shift back toward the National League.
The way the American League has sustained its dominance in recent years was by significantly outspending the National League in the offseason free-agent market. But with the new trend which has emerged in the past two or three years of teams locking up all their good young players through their peak years by buying out several arbitration years, the free agent market has become thinner and thinner each offseason, making it harder and harder for the rich AL teams to pilfer all the NL’s hottest young stars by luring them with bigger contracts.
So now the AL teams are stuck with the aging, declining superstars they lured away five years ago, while the NL continues to produce the hot new young stars of tomorrow.
April 2nd, 2008 at 7:06 pm
You can never go wrong with a good time-lapse video – and this one is very cool. How about a time-lapse “video” of umpbump.com…i.e. of umpbump getting updated over the last year or so…that would be interesting….
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April 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 pm
It didn’t snow in Cleveland Monday.
It snowed in Cleveland a year ago on the day of the home opener. That’s when the time-lapse is from. It’s promoed at the end of Snowball, too.
Thanks for all the links, though. Any suggestions for our successor to Snowball? I’m thinking “Here Come the Midges” or “Darn Those Sox!”
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May 6th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Nick, you’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon here. But I don’t think your concluding sentence is really supported by the data you’ve put together in your post, or by the other data out there. For instance, according to Baseball Prospectus’ organizational rankings, 4 of the top 5 farm systems in baseball are in the AL, and the NL team that makes the cut—the Dodgers—is number 5.There are some other rankings systems that are a little more favorable of the NL, like the young talent rankings put together by Bill James for SI, but that even shows an even split between the leagues, not NL dominance. I think with teams trying to lock up their young stars, we will see an evening out of the two leagues, not a sea change in favor of the NL. I know you are salivating at the prospect of an NL coup, but I think you may have overreached a bit with that last line—I can almost hear the “MUAHAHAHAHA!”
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May 6th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Sarah, here’s the thing. You’re assuming that BP’s projections are accurate, but we all know that prospect rankings doesn’t necessarily lead to big league success. What Nick’s showing is what’s happening now at the big league level. These guys’ futures are easier to project.
With that said, the question has to be asked – if Utley, Soto, Chipper, et al were to be facing AL pitching, would they succeed at this level? Conventional wisdom seems to say no.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:05 am
BP’s rankings are looking at the organization’s farm systems as a whole, though, which I think is more useful than looking at something like Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list. Sure, any of those guys could fail to pan out. But if you look at teams’ systems all together, from AAA down to the Sally league, I think it gives you a pretty good sense of what that organization is doing internally to try and compete. I think it’s pretty likely that some of the players from those deep systems will end up succeeding in the bigs. At least, it’s more likely than major leaguers somehow emerging from those farm systems where the cupboard is bare.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:27 am
or maybe this is because National League pitching sucks, and AL pitching dominates, and has more aggressive pitchers – another way of looking at it.
then of course I went to look at the stats and that didnt make sense either…because NL teams lead the MLB in almost every category in pitching too…so I don’t know. the AL Central has definitely been more mediocre than expected this year – Detroit and Cleveland aren’t hitting the way they should be right now, and in the east, Boston was thrown off its game from the Japan trip, etc, and you’re right, the Yankees are aging offensively – all their “power hitting” is over 30 now.
maybe, after years of calling the Nat. League overmatched and a bunch of AAAA clubs, it just means that the playing field is finally even, and that’s a good thing.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:32 am
also – a lot more injuries than expected in the AL – Mike Lowell was out awhile, A-Rod’s out so he’s going to have an off year this year, Ortiz had that weird freakishly slow start, Granderson was out, Cabrera’s been rendered ineffective (for some reason)…seeing as Detroit is 0 for 15 when scoring 4 runs or less…thats an awful lot of pressure to put on your lineup. maybe the pressure to produce and make up for the overwhelmingly useless bullpen has already gotten to their heads.
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May 6th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I have to say, I also like how those first 9 over 1.000 OPS players would make a perfect NL All-Star team, with exactly one player at each position on the diamond, plus Lance Berkman to DH.
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May 6th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
“or maybe this is because National League pitching sucks, and AL pitching dominates, and has more aggressive pitchers”
You make me LAUGH—Lets have a look
Top 5 ERA as goes (with 30 innings).
1-Cliff Lee
2-Edison Volquez
3-Tim Lincecum
4-Zack Greinke
5-Ervin Santana
Lets also look at STRIKE OUTS
1-J. Santana
2-Vazquez
3-Peavy
4-Lincecum
5-Billingsley
only 1 in the AL in the MLB top 5
AND WALKS
1-Matsuzaka
2-Gorzelanny
3-Lester
4-Carmona
5-Jimenez
only 2 from the NL in the MLB Top 5
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May 6th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
“BP’s rankings are looking at the organization’s farm systems as a whole, though, which I think is more useful than looking at something like Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list.”
Sarah – Baseball America also ranks farm systems as a whole. They ranks the top 5 as…
1-Rays
2-Red Sox
3-Reds
4-Rangers
5-Yankees
the next 4 teams are in the NL with the Angels rounding out the top 10
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May 6th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Doug, I know they do that, but only their Top 100 list is available to nonsubscribers and my BA book is at home. If you know where to get it for free, I’d like to know. Thanks for weighing in.
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May 6th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Nick,
Part of the reason everyone thinks the AL is so much better is that ESPN and the New York media tend to focus on the Yankees and the Red Sox. While a lot of the attention these teams get is well deserved it also tends to ignore what is happening elsewhere in baseball. The national media coverage of these two teams is more extensive than most cities local coverage of their own teams.
The current offensive dominance by NL players is even more impressive when you consider they don’t have as many solely offensive players on their roster. With AL teams carrying DHs they should definitely have a few more guys near the top since that’s all they do.
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May 6th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Melissa, it’s not just hype. Looking at all the interleague games that have been going on, I think it’s pretty clear who the better league has been over the last decade. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the NL isn’t turning the tide. So while it’s interesting to note how many NL hitters are just tearing it up so far in 2008, there are no conclusions that can be reached yet.
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May 6th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Paul, Please notice where I stated, “a lot of the attention these teams get is well deserved,” hence I did not contend it’s all hype. If you want to contend there is no East Coast media bias that’s fine but I have seen it. I was simply adding bias to the list of things Nick mentioned as another reason as to why the perception of AL dominance exists. People who live on the East Coast may not be as aware of it because they are part of it and it’s teams they are interested in. Put Albert Pujols on the Yankees and see if he doesn’t become the most hyped player in the game. He doesn’t get a great deal of mention for quite possibly being the best player in the game. Jeter gets the love because he is a Yankee, we all know he doesn’t deserve the level of praise he gets. Miguel Cabrera and Albert are definitely 2 of the 5 best hitters in the game and they don’t get anywhere near the pub. of guys in NY and Boston.
I also agree with you it’s too early to indicate that the NL is an offensive powerhouse. The DH alone should make the AL the dominant offensive league. I would also add that personally I don’t think the outcome of the All-Star game means a whole lot as to which is the better league. It is an exhibition game even if MLB gives the outcome meaning. If the “better” teams and players are in the AL, there are many fans of the game of baseball that will always prefer to watch the DH-less NL.
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May 6th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
“or maybe this is because National League pitching sucks, and AL pitching dominates, and has more aggressive pitchers”
You make me LAUGH—Lets have a look”
DUDE – did you not read what I wrote after that? I said that was my INITIAL reaction, but upon looking at the pitching stats, the NL seemed to be leading in pitching categories as well.
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:01 am
I wonder if all this NL love will continue after interleague play?
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:16 am
Well, Ken, I’m not sure, but my point was not necessarily that the NL has better *teams* as much as that it has better stars. Can anyone really doubt that right now Chase Utley is the best second baseman in the game, that Geovany Soto is the best catcher, or that Pujols is the best first-baseman?
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Nick, when you mention Soto as the best catcher, don\’t you mean \"so far in 2008\"?
And Melissa, I know very well that the east coast gets more media coverage. I wouldn\’t call it \"bias\" (that\’s a totally different conversation). Players and teams get more attention for many reasons. Bigger media markets, more convenient time zone, bigger revenue stream. The AP, Reuters, ESPN, Time Warner/Sports Illustrated, are all located in the NY tri-state area for a reason. So yeah, the east coast (more notably the BOS-NYC corridor) gets far more attention than the rest of the country.
But I just disagree that this is the reason why so many people think that the AL is the better league. Hell, I couldn\’t care less about the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. But the fact remains that since 2000, the National League has a 955-1059 record in interleague play.
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Don’t forget DC and Philly! There’s a reason the Amtrak Boston-to-DC corridor is the only profitable passenger rail line in America. If you look at one of those maps of the US at night, you can easily see where the population centers are. Yes, plenty of other states have huge cities, but the sprawl from Boston to Pittsburgh to DC is pretty uniformly intense. Nonetheless, any benefit we gain from greater media coverage I would readily trade for less traffic.
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:22 am
So I notice that David Pinto, writing over at The Sporting News, has just tackled this question from a slightly different angle, but I think his data and conclusions support my view, namely, that the NL teams are using younger players than the AL teams, and that the younger players they are using are better than the young players the AL is using.
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May 8th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
The reason the NL dominates can be broken down inot a simple equation.
Dominantness= # of Chase Utleys ^ # of Pat the Bats
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May 8th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
This conversation is moot until inter-league play. Right now you’re analyzing statistical incest.
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