Comments on: Today’s Game to Watch: Clayton Kershaw vs. the Cardinals http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/ In-your-face baseball commentary Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:48:13 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55858 Paul Moro Tue, 27 May 2008 17:17:22 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55858 And Nick, you're right. Didn't mean to crash the party. If you were a Dodger fan and NOT excited at the prospect of Kershaw, then you probably do need to get your arteries checked. And Nick, you’re right. Didn’t mean to crash the party. If you were a Dodger fan and NOT excited at the prospect of Kershaw, then you probably do need to get your arteries checked.

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55857 Paul Moro Tue, 27 May 2008 16:35:55 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55857 I mean it in the sense that pitching has way too many variables and therefore, it's nearly impossible to predict that any young pitcher is going to succeed, individually speaking. If you took the top 20 pitching prospects in baseball, chances are that a couple of them go on to have nice careers. Maybe one of them becomes an All-Star. But the vast majority of them is not going to win 50 games, either due to injury or ineffectiveness. And not even the best scouts or most brilliant stat heads can figure out who those are going to be beyond simple guessing. Pitching is such a violent and unnatural motion that most arms just can't handle it or can't repeat it. I mean it in the sense that pitching has way too many variables and therefore, it’s nearly impossible to predict that any young pitcher is going to succeed, individually speaking. If you took the top 20 pitching prospects in baseball, chances are that a couple of them go on to have nice careers. Maybe one of them becomes an All-Star. But the vast majority of them is not going to win 50 games, either due to injury or ineffectiveness. And not even the best scouts or most brilliant stat heads can figure out who those are going to be beyond simple guessing. Pitching is such a violent and unnatural motion that most arms just can’t handle it or can’t repeat it.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55856 Sarah Green Tue, 27 May 2008 16:29:37 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55856 But it seems like the acronym has perhaps lost its original meaning---thus I'm a little surprised/confused about what you guys mean. Do you mean "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect" because big league hitters know how to hit breaking balls and make adjustments and because pitchers are fragile, or do you mean it in the sense that Nate Silver talks about it, as in, "there are no pitching prospects, only pitchers"---that a good pitcher who is 20 years old is a good pitcher, period, and not a prospect? It sounds like you mean it in the former (and newer) sense. But it seems like the acronym has perhaps lost its original meaning—thus I’m a little surprised/confused about what you guys mean. Do you mean “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” because big league hitters know how to hit breaking balls and make adjustments and because pitchers are fragile, or do you mean it in the sense that Nate Silver talks about it, as in, “there are no pitching prospects, only pitchers”—that a good pitcher who is 20 years old is a good pitcher, period, and not a prospect? It sounds like you mean it in the former (and newer) sense.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55855 Nick Kapur Tue, 27 May 2008 16:23:41 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55855 Well, I definitely see what you are saying, and I agree, but I guess my counterpoint would be that there's no reason not to be excited about these prospects when they do come up, and that there's no reason why we shouldn't enjoy what games they do win before the inevitable arm injury. I mean, Kershaw's curveball really is a thing of beauty: <a href="http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200805252772678" rel="nofollow">http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200805252772678</a> Well, I definitely see what you are saying, and I agree, but I guess my counterpoint would be that there’s no reason not to be excited about these prospects when they do come up, and that there’s no reason why we shouldn’t enjoy what games they do win before the inevitable arm injury. I mean, Kershaw’s curveball really is a thing of beauty:

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200805252772678

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55854 Paul Moro Tue, 27 May 2008 15:41:12 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55854 Depends on how literally you're going to take it. Yes, some pitching prospects do pan out. But really, how many of them actually even win 50 games over their career? Mark Prior, Kurt Ainsworth, Juan Cruz, Ryan Anderson, Nick Neugebauer, Jon Rauch, Dennis Tankersley and Carlos Hernandez were the top arms a few years ago. Hasn't exactly worked out for them. The only guy among this crop who has succeeded up to expectations is Josh Beckett. No matter how good Kershaw appears to be, the odds are simply against him to win 50 games in his career. Depends on how literally you’re going to take it. Yes, some pitching prospects do pan out. But really, how many of them actually even win 50 games over their career?

Mark Prior, Kurt Ainsworth, Juan Cruz, Ryan Anderson, Nick Neugebauer, Jon Rauch, Dennis Tankersley and Carlos Hernandez were the top arms a few years ago. Hasn’t exactly worked out for them. The only guy among this crop who has succeeded up to expectations is Josh Beckett.

No matter how good Kershaw appears to be, the odds are simply against him to win 50 games in his career.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55853 Sarah Green Tue, 27 May 2008 15:39:22 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55853 Let's first be clear on <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=249" rel="nofollow">what that means</a>. Let’s first be clear on what that means.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55852 Nick Kapur Tue, 27 May 2008 15:15:12 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55852 Do you really believe that, Paul? Do you really believe that, Paul?

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-55851 Paul Moro Tue, 27 May 2008 13:53:54 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-55851 TINSTAAPP TINSTAAPP

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]]> By: Danny O http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-48887 Danny O Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:23:13 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-48887 Yeah but Ruiz had 6 stolen bases last year while Coste has none. That definitely makes up for 59 points of career batting average. "Money, it's gotta be the shoes!" Yeah but Ruiz had 6 stolen bases last year while Coste has none. That definitely makes up for 59 points of career batting average.

“Money, it’s gotta be the shoes!”

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/05/25/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-48778 Paul Moro Sun, 20 Apr 2008 17:39:22 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/todays-game-to-watch-clayton-kershaw-vs-the-cardinals/#comment-48778 Yeah, I wish teams would just play the better player. I mean seriously, does anyone really show up to the ballpark because they want to watch Carlos Ruiz?? The fans are ready to embrace Coste's "everyman" story of grit and stick-to-it-iveness. Especially those fans in Philly - they love that working class schtick. I say let him play every day, until he sucks. Yeah, I wish teams would just play the better player. I mean seriously, does anyone really show up to the ballpark because they want to watch Carlos Ruiz??

The fans are ready to embrace Coste’s “everyman” story of grit and stick-to-it-iveness. Especially those fans in Philly – they love that working class schtick. I say let him play every day, until he sucks.

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