Before the season started, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said he thought his team had a chance to break the franchise record for most runs scored – 944. Just how close are the Phillies to that goal? Let’s check in.
The Phils started off a little slow. They scored 127 runs in 27 games in April, good for 10th in MLB. Then they got scorching hot, scoring 175 runs in 29 games in May, more than any other team that month. So far in June, they’ve been just so-so, scoring 40 runs in 9 games.
All told, the Phils have scored 342 runs in 65 games, or 5.26 runs per game. If they keep up that rate, they’ll score 510 runs over the next 97 games, for a total of 852 runs. That’s obviously far short of the record.
But what if you’re of the opinion that the Phillies turned a corner in May and that they’ll continue their hot hitting for the rest of the season? Since May 1, the Phils have averaged 5.66 runs per game. If they keep it up, they’ll score 548 runs over the next 97 games, for a total of 890 runs. That’s still well short of what they need.
But, what if you are extremely optimistic and figure that the Phils will repeat their May success in June, July, August and September? That would mean scoring 6.03 runs over the remaining 97 games. If the Phillies do that, they will finish with a total of 927 runs – still 17 runs shy of the record.
A more realistic goal would be simply topping last season’s mark of 892 runs. That’s within reach, though hardly a gimme.
While we’re on the topic of Phillies records, what about Jimmy Rollins’ stated goal of winning 100 games? Can the Phillies pull that off? So far the team is 39-27. That means a winning percentage of .591. If they maintain that pace they’ll win 57 more games, for a cumulative record of 96-66. That would be a little short of 100, but it would make my preseason prediction of 95 wins look pretty smart.