UmpBump’s Week 10 Fantasy Results
Our UmpBump Fantasy League is getting tighter and tighter in the standings. Comfortable leads are now slimming down. Two owners have already made a combined 93 roster moves. which may be a record. But then again, with so many notable players hitting the DL over the past week (John Smoltz, Ryan Zimmerman, David Ortiz, Carlos Pena, Rickie Weeks, Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Hill, and the indispensable Clete Thomas), it’s looking like a necessity…
Alejandro: So how’s it going? Good? Well? Swell? Great, I’m fine; just dandy. D’you see those White Sox? Boy 
that Ozzie Guillen can really get under his team’s skin, and boy do they respond! Ok fine, I didn’t want to do it, but I guess I have to talk about my fantasy team. I’m so good I don’t wanna talk about it lest I jinx it. I was this close to losing in week 9, but last week I just brought it, and my Center Field Stud whopped freebase my balls (yes that’s the name) 11-1. That lone loss came as a result of a 2.91 ERA, which was obviously not enough to beat balls’ 2.59. But really, my offense was firing on all cylinders. I mean, I had guys on the bench who were racking up stats. My pitching was decent, B.J. Ryan blew a save and had a balloon-like 16.20 ERA (I wonder if that’s what prevented a perfect 12-0?). And Mark Hendrickson seems to be coming back to earth. Don’t look now, but that first place seems awfully close at 7.5 games ahead. Hot: Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Kerry Wood (hot!!), Gavin Floyd, Jon Garland. Notable mildness: Eric Chavez. Not: Mark Hendrickson, B.J. Ryan, Alex Gordon (trade anyone?).
Coley: This week my team put a 9-3 beat down on Montefusco’s Revenge, a feat that is made more amazing by the fact that I had to overcome Oliver Perez’s 162.00 ERA. Overcome it I did, and Perez is now on the waiver wire. That’s the good news. The bad news is that, moments after trading away Todd Helton for Rich Harden, Carlos Pena hit the DL. All of a sudden I found myself sans a first basemen AND an extra infielder. So I picked up Mark Teahen and Carlos Delgado and they’ll just have to do until Pena and Chone Figgins return from the DL. Now my only problem is what to do with Jorge Posada. He’s back and he’s looking healthy, but I am perfectly content with Bengie Molina. I’ve tried to trade Posada but so far there have been no takers. Should I cut him? I just can’t bring myself to do it. Hot: Milton Bradley, Johnny Damon, Yunel Escobar. Not: Oliver Perez, Brandon Phillips.
Sarah: The Green Sox took a 6-5 squeaker last week over team caitlin grace, who goes all-lowercase, e.e. cummings
-style. Embarassingly, she’s last in our league, hasn’t logged in in nearly a month, and has made zero roster moves all season long. But a win is a win, and this one marked an important milestone for my team: I finally won the saves category. With John Smoltz out for the season, I’m hoping the Braves will give my Rafael Soriano a long leash. With Pedro Martinez coming off the DL, I spent much of the week trying to find a taker for a pitcher to clear a space on my roster, but had no luck. Then Vernon Wells came off the DL and Rickie Weeks went on, necessitating even more maneuvering. Ultimately, I dropped Dana Eveland, Hong Chih Kuo, and Santiago Casilla and added Joel Zumaya and Akinori Iwamura. Hot: J.D. Drew, David Murphy (though the poor kid never gets a chance to play for me—trade anyone?), Vernon Wells, Ian Kinsler, Troy Glaus. Not: Andy Pettitte (I thought it was safe to pitch him against the Royals!), Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury.
Paul: My high school gym teacher, the legendary John Donodeo, used to say, “a tie is like kissing your sister!” Mr. Donodeo, that’s just gross. I really think I’d just rather tie. And so would 98% of god-fearing Americans (statistic not applicable in West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Philadelphia). But I did manage to pull off a draw this week against the team whose name is most difficult to type, Box89RowKKSeat14 (Ania). My offense was dominated but my pitching staff picked up the slack. That’s not 
to say that all my bats were silent. Brian Roberts, Edwin Encarnacion, and Shane Victorino did their best, but the only category I won on offense was Runs Scored. On the mound, the only pitcher who stumbled was Cliff Lee, and he still picked up a win despite allowing six runs in five innings (proof #876,329,861,734,896 that Wins are an arbitrary stat). But Scott Kazmir just keeps rolling. Have you seen just how good he’s been? He began the year late due to an injury, but since his return, he’s pitched 45 innings, averaging almost 10Ks per 9IP, less than 3 walks per 9, allowing a mere (but unsustainable) .22 HRs per game, a 0.91 WHIP and 1.40 ERA. On a totally, completely and utterly unrelated note, the Mets are 7.5 games back in the NL East and Victor Zambrano is sporting a 9.45 ERA. In Colorado Springs. AAA. Excuse me, I need to go get a tissue. Hot: Brian Roberts, Edwin Encarnacion, Shane Victorino, Trevor Hoffman, George Sherrill, Scott Kazmir. Not: Geovany Soto, David Wright, Jhonny Peralta, Cliff Lee.
Standings, with games behind:
1. Paul (ElDuquesInjuryReport) (0)
2. Scott (Utley’s Firm Quads) (3.5)
3. Doug (Swamp Dragons) (5)
4. Alejandro (Center Field Stud) (7.5)
5. Sarah (Somerville Green Sox) (13.5)
6. Kirk (Montefusco’s Revenge) (23)
7. Bryan (Pirates in 08!) (24.5)
8. Ania (Box89RowKKSeat14) (26.5)
9. Larry (croutchyoldman) (26.5)
10. Coley (Crunkball All Stars) (28.5)
11. Sooze (freebase my balls) (34.5)
12. Caitlin (caitlin grace) (35)
May 6th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Nick, you’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon here. But I don’t think your concluding sentence is really supported by the data you’ve put together in your post, or by the other data out there. For instance, according to Baseball Prospectus’ organizational rankings, 4 of the top 5 farm systems in baseball are in the AL, and the NL team that makes the cut—the Dodgers—is number 5.There are some other rankings systems that are a little more favorable of the NL, like the young talent rankings put together by Bill James for SI, but that even shows an even split between the leagues, not NL dominance. I think with teams trying to lock up their young stars, we will see an evening out of the two leagues, not a sea change in favor of the NL. I know you are salivating at the prospect of an NL coup, but I think you may have overreached a bit with that last line—I can almost hear the “MUAHAHAHAHA!”
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May 6th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Sarah, here’s the thing. You’re assuming that BP’s projections are accurate, but we all know that prospect rankings doesn’t necessarily lead to big league success. What Nick’s showing is what’s happening now at the big league level. These guys’ futures are easier to project.
With that said, the question has to be asked – if Utley, Soto, Chipper, et al were to be facing AL pitching, would they succeed at this level? Conventional wisdom seems to say no.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:05 am
BP’s rankings are looking at the organization’s farm systems as a whole, though, which I think is more useful than looking at something like Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list. Sure, any of those guys could fail to pan out. But if you look at teams’ systems all together, from AAA down to the Sally league, I think it gives you a pretty good sense of what that organization is doing internally to try and compete. I think it’s pretty likely that some of the players from those deep systems will end up succeeding in the bigs. At least, it’s more likely than major leaguers somehow emerging from those farm systems where the cupboard is bare.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:27 am
or maybe this is because National League pitching sucks, and AL pitching dominates, and has more aggressive pitchers – another way of looking at it.
then of course I went to look at the stats and that didnt make sense either…because NL teams lead the MLB in almost every category in pitching too…so I don’t know. the AL Central has definitely been more mediocre than expected this year – Detroit and Cleveland aren’t hitting the way they should be right now, and in the east, Boston was thrown off its game from the Japan trip, etc, and you’re right, the Yankees are aging offensively – all their “power hitting” is over 30 now.
maybe, after years of calling the Nat. League overmatched and a bunch of AAAA clubs, it just means that the playing field is finally even, and that’s a good thing.
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:32 am
also – a lot more injuries than expected in the AL – Mike Lowell was out awhile, A-Rod’s out so he’s going to have an off year this year, Ortiz had that weird freakishly slow start, Granderson was out, Cabrera’s been rendered ineffective (for some reason)…seeing as Detroit is 0 for 15 when scoring 4 runs or less…thats an awful lot of pressure to put on your lineup. maybe the pressure to produce and make up for the overwhelmingly useless bullpen has already gotten to their heads.
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May 6th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I have to say, I also like how those first 9 over 1.000 OPS players would make a perfect NL All-Star team, with exactly one player at each position on the diamond, plus Lance Berkman to DH.
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May 6th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
“or maybe this is because National League pitching sucks, and AL pitching dominates, and has more aggressive pitchers”
You make me LAUGH—Lets have a look
Top 5 ERA as goes (with 30 innings).
1-Cliff Lee
2-Edison Volquez
3-Tim Lincecum
4-Zack Greinke
5-Ervin Santana
Lets also look at STRIKE OUTS
1-J. Santana
2-Vazquez
3-Peavy
4-Lincecum
5-Billingsley
only 1 in the AL in the MLB top 5
AND WALKS
1-Matsuzaka
2-Gorzelanny
3-Lester
4-Carmona
5-Jimenez
only 2 from the NL in the MLB Top 5
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May 6th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
“BP’s rankings are looking at the organization’s farm systems as a whole, though, which I think is more useful than looking at something like Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list.”
Sarah – Baseball America also ranks farm systems as a whole. They ranks the top 5 as…
1-Rays
2-Red Sox
3-Reds
4-Rangers
5-Yankees
the next 4 teams are in the NL with the Angels rounding out the top 10
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May 6th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Doug, I know they do that, but only their Top 100 list is available to nonsubscribers and my BA book is at home. If you know where to get it for free, I’d like to know. Thanks for weighing in.
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May 6th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Nick,
Part of the reason everyone thinks the AL is so much better is that ESPN and the New York media tend to focus on the Yankees and the Red Sox. While a lot of the attention these teams get is well deserved it also tends to ignore what is happening elsewhere in baseball. The national media coverage of these two teams is more extensive than most cities local coverage of their own teams.
The current offensive dominance by NL players is even more impressive when you consider they don’t have as many solely offensive players on their roster. With AL teams carrying DHs they should definitely have a few more guys near the top since that’s all they do.
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May 6th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Melissa, it’s not just hype. Looking at all the interleague games that have been going on, I think it’s pretty clear who the better league has been over the last decade. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the NL isn’t turning the tide. So while it’s interesting to note how many NL hitters are just tearing it up so far in 2008, there are no conclusions that can be reached yet.
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May 6th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Paul, Please notice where I stated, “a lot of the attention these teams get is well deserved,” hence I did not contend it’s all hype. If you want to contend there is no East Coast media bias that’s fine but I have seen it. I was simply adding bias to the list of things Nick mentioned as another reason as to why the perception of AL dominance exists. People who live on the East Coast may not be as aware of it because they are part of it and it’s teams they are interested in. Put Albert Pujols on the Yankees and see if he doesn’t become the most hyped player in the game. He doesn’t get a great deal of mention for quite possibly being the best player in the game. Jeter gets the love because he is a Yankee, we all know he doesn’t deserve the level of praise he gets. Miguel Cabrera and Albert are definitely 2 of the 5 best hitters in the game and they don’t get anywhere near the pub. of guys in NY and Boston.
I also agree with you it’s too early to indicate that the NL is an offensive powerhouse. The DH alone should make the AL the dominant offensive league. I would also add that personally I don’t think the outcome of the All-Star game means a whole lot as to which is the better league. It is an exhibition game even if MLB gives the outcome meaning. If the “better” teams and players are in the AL, there are many fans of the game of baseball that will always prefer to watch the DH-less NL.
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May 6th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
“or maybe this is because National League pitching sucks, and AL pitching dominates, and has more aggressive pitchersâ€
You make me LAUGH—Lets have a look”
DUDE – did you not read what I wrote after that? I said that was my INITIAL reaction, but upon looking at the pitching stats, the NL seemed to be leading in pitching categories as well.
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:01 am
I wonder if all this NL love will continue after interleague play?
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:16 am
Well, Ken, I’m not sure, but my point was not necessarily that the NL has better *teams* as much as that it has better stars. Can anyone really doubt that right now Chase Utley is the best second baseman in the game, that Geovany Soto is the best catcher, or that Pujols is the best first-baseman?
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Nick, when you mention Soto as the best catcher, don\’t you mean \"so far in 2008\"?
And Melissa, I know very well that the east coast gets more media coverage. I wouldn\’t call it \"bias\" (that\’s a totally different conversation). Players and teams get more attention for many reasons. Bigger media markets, more convenient time zone, bigger revenue stream. The AP, Reuters, ESPN, Time Warner/Sports Illustrated, are all located in the NY tri-state area for a reason. So yeah, the east coast (more notably the BOS-NYC corridor) gets far more attention than the rest of the country.
But I just disagree that this is the reason why so many people think that the AL is the better league. Hell, I couldn\’t care less about the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. But the fact remains that since 2000, the National League has a 955-1059 record in interleague play.
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Don’t forget DC and Philly! There’s a reason the Amtrak Boston-to-DC corridor is the only profitable passenger rail line in America. If you look at one of those maps of the US at night, you can easily see where the population centers are. Yes, plenty of other states have huge cities, but the sprawl from Boston to Pittsburgh to DC is pretty uniformly intense. Nonetheless, any benefit we gain from greater media coverage I would readily trade for less traffic.
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:22 am
So I notice that David Pinto, writing over at The Sporting News, has just tackled this question from a slightly different angle, but I think his data and conclusions support my view, namely, that the NL teams are using younger players than the AL teams, and that the younger players they are using are better than the young players the AL is using.
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May 8th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
The reason the NL dominates can be broken down inot a simple equation.
Dominantness= # of Chase Utleys ^ # of Pat the Bats
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May 8th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
This conversation is moot until inter-league play. Right now you’re analyzing statistical incest.
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June 11th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
When is a 9-3 loss satisfying? When you were facing an 11-1 loss going into Sunday morning, and you still hang onto the 6th seed, that’s when. My offense got destroyed, I was out of it from Monday on pretty much, when he got 10 runs, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 25 TB, and .541 OBP, and my team managed just 3 runs, 1 HR, 3 RBI, etc. Then on Tuesday his team drove the dagger in with a 6, 4, 9, 29 outburst which made the outcome never in doubt. Milton Bradley made sure of that!
His pitching was dominant all week as well, thankfully Ervin and Wandy gave me a couple nice Sunday performances to salvage a split in pitching categories. So, I’m under .500, but still in the hunt for the championship bracket, while I am licking my wounds, I still feel confident about my chances.
Hot: No one on offense really. Ervin Santana, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jonathan Sanchez all pitched well though.
Not: Everyone on offense, and James Shields, Jesse Litsch, and the dudes I dropped on the pitching side.
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June 11th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
I might have to do some stretching here before I write about my team this week, because I might just pull a muscle patting myself on the back. At the conclusion of Saturday’s games, I was winning only one of the pitching categories (S) and trailed Pirates in ‘08! (Bryan) by a score of 7-4. Realizing that W, K, ERA, WHIP, and K/BB were within reach, I decided to grab a couple of spot starters. Thanks to Justin Masterson and Armando Galaragga’s 2 wins, 8 Ks, and solid ratios, I ended the week sweeping the pitching categories and with an 8-4 win to keep me within spitting distance of first place. My offense, however, has been struggling somewhat… to that end I pulled the trigger on another trade, sending the Big Unit and Adam LaRoche to Ania for Justin Morneau. I’m happy to say this is the second trade this season in which someone has expressed their concern over the fairness of the deal…
HOT: Masterson & Galarraga (thanks for the spot starts, guys, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!), Prince Fielder, my bullpen
NOT: AJ Burnett, Jason Bergmann
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June 11th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Alejandro – Josh Beckett, hot? really? have you been watching replayed games from last year or something?
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June 11th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Lindsay, this is Fantasy Baseball. The boy has this kind of a line:
W1 SV0 K5 ERA1.50
He’s hot.
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June 13th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Sarah, you’re probably aware of this, but you might wanna start thinking Plan B on Soriano. (The Braves are currently on Plan R when it comes to pitching.) He has had a persistently sore elbow ever since coming off the DL. He won’t be pitching in consecutive games anytime soon, and they gotta start thinking about disabling him again as it has been too painful to pitch for most of this week.
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