Comments on: UmpBump’s Week 12 Fantasy Results http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/ In-your-face baseball commentary Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:48:13 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Lyndsay http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/comment-page-1/#comment-56079 Lyndsay Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:15:12 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2387#comment-56079 dammit that didnt work. it was his team photo. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6462 dammit that didnt work. it was his team photo.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6462

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]]> By: Lyndsay http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/comment-page-1/#comment-56078 Lyndsay Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:14:03 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2387#comment-56078 with how hot he is right now, you'd think Dan Uggla could try and relax a little and not look so scared shitless. with how hot he is right now, you’d think Dan Uggla could try and relax a little and not look so scared shitless.

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]]> By: Kirk Miller http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/comment-page-1/#comment-56077 Kirk Miller Tue, 24 Jun 2008 01:12:57 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2387#comment-56077 Good advice Nick. My feeling is that if they are not good enough to play then don't even have 'em on your roster. That being said, sometimes it is advisable at the end of the week to bench a pitcher (or rarely, a hitter) if they can only hurt you in rate stats because the counting stats are out of reach one way or the other. My team played well this week. I managed to survive a same-day meltdown by Contreras and Litsch. Luckily, I had some great performances earlier in the week so I had a large cushion to absorb all those runs and hits. It felt good to sweep pitching for the week. My offense is still under-performing for the most part, but I did manage to grab 3 cats. I am still taking heart in the fact that I am in the thick of the hunt for the top 6 seeds. This has been a fun season and it's shaping up to be an exciting finish. Good advice Nick. My feeling is that if they are not good enough to play then don’t even have ‘em on your roster. That being said, sometimes it is advisable at the end of the week to bench a pitcher (or rarely, a hitter) if they can only hurt you in rate stats because the counting stats are out of reach one way or the other.

My team played well this week. I managed to survive a same-day meltdown by Contreras and Litsch. Luckily, I had some great performances earlier in the week so I had a large cushion to absorb all those runs and hits. It felt good to sweep pitching for the week. My offense is still under-performing for the most part, but I did manage to grab 3 cats. I am still taking heart in the fact that I am in the thick of the hunt for the top 6 seeds.

This has been a fun season and it’s shaping up to be an exciting finish.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/comment-page-1/#comment-56076 Nick Kapur Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:06:14 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2387#comment-56076 Yeah, I mean I guess theirs no cure for not having the right horses in the race. If you don't have good arms, then you don't have good arms. But all I really want to say is, if you are going to bet on a horse, then you have to bet on him completely. If you estimate that a pitcher is going to end up with a 3.75 ERA and 200 strikeouts by the end of the season, then you should play him every day and hopefully by the end the numbers will be there But baseball is just so crazy and random that it is too hard to predict from week to week whether a pitcher is going to do well or not (unless you have other information, like he is playing through an injury or something). The difference between the best lineup in baseball and the worst lineup in baseball just isn't great enough to reliably manifest itself in any single game. Just think of how many times a lineup like the Yankees' is randomly shut down by some team's 4th starter who just happened to have a good day. That's why we need all of 162 games to see these larger trends. Yeah, I mean I guess theirs no cure for not having the right horses in the race. If you don’t have good arms, then you don’t have good arms.

But all I really want to say is, if you are going to bet on a horse, then you have to bet on him completely. If you estimate that a pitcher is going to end up with a 3.75 ERA and 200 strikeouts by the end of the season, then you should play him every day and hopefully by the end the numbers will be there

But baseball is just so crazy and random that it is too hard to predict from week to week whether a pitcher is going to do well or not (unless you have other information, like he is playing through an injury or something). The difference between the best lineup in baseball and the worst lineup in baseball just isn’t great enough to reliably manifest itself in any single game. Just think of how many times a lineup like the Yankees’ is randomly shut down by some team’s 4th starter who just happened to have a good day. That’s why we need all of 162 games to see these larger trends.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/comment-page-1/#comment-56075 Sarah Green Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:00:07 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2387#comment-56075 Nick, that is interesting advice. I began the season with that in mind, but I seemed to be routinely getting hammered week in and week out, losing all of my pitching averages. Maybe my pitchers just aren't very good pitchers. :( Nick, that is interesting advice. I began the season with that in mind, but I seemed to be routinely getting hammered week in and week out, losing all of my pitching averages. Maybe my pitchers just aren’t very good pitchers. :(

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/06/23/umpbumps-week-12-fantasy-results/comment-page-1/#comment-56074 Nick Kapur Mon, 23 Jun 2008 19:53:25 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2387#comment-56074 Sarah, the first rule of fantasy baseball pitching is that you always start all of your pitchers every chance possible. Unlike say, fantasy football, baseball is too close to a .500 game, and too unpredictable to play matchups like that. So you should just play all of your pitchers all the time, because at least you will get more of the counting stats, like strikeouts, that way. Inevitably, some of your pitchers are going to get hammered on some days, but if they are truly good pitchers, the numbers are going to even out over a full season. But if you don't play them every week due to matchups, you are going to miss out on that evening out effect and might actually come out on the bad side of the evening out, and meanwhile you are definitely going to be missing out on precious counting stats. This principle also goes for hitters as well. Baseball is just too unpredictable in the short term - only long term outcomes can be (sort of) predicted. Sarah, the first rule of fantasy baseball pitching is that you always start all of your pitchers every chance possible. Unlike say, fantasy football, baseball is too close to a .500 game, and too unpredictable to play matchups like that.

So you should just play all of your pitchers all the time, because at least you will get more of the counting stats, like strikeouts, that way. Inevitably, some of your pitchers are going to get hammered on some days, but if they are truly good pitchers, the numbers are going to even out over a full season.

But if you don’t play them every week due to matchups, you are going to miss out on that evening out effect and might actually come out on the bad side of the evening out, and meanwhile you are definitely going to be missing out on precious counting stats.

This principle also goes for hitters as well. Baseball is just too unpredictable in the short term – only long term outcomes can be (sort of) predicted.

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