Comments on: Blame Cox. Just a little. http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/ In-your-face baseball commentary Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:44:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-56298 Paul Moro Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:57:46 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-56298 Using, say, Greg Norton in place of Francoeur gets you 4.934 runs per game. Roughly speaking, that's about nine runs more per 162 games. And to answer the ".250 with RISP" part, with the same number of ABs, a .250 hitter would have hit 27 hits - 6 more than Francoeur hit in those situations. But that doesn't necessarily mean that you should just go and tack on 8 or 9 runs to the Braves offense in this theoretical scenario. In order to do that, you'd have to take into account how those batting behind him performed following his ABs too. Just because Francoeur didn't drive them in, doesn't meant that no one did. And with RISP with 2 outs, he did hit .250. Using, say, Greg Norton in place of Francoeur gets you 4.934 runs per game. Roughly speaking, that’s about nine runs more per 162 games.

And to answer the “.250 with RISP” part, with the same number of ABs, a .250 hitter would have hit 27 hits – 6 more than Francoeur hit in those situations. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that you should just go and tack on 8 or 9 runs to the Braves offense in this theoretical scenario. In order to do that, you’d have to take into account how those batting behind him performed following his ABs too. Just because Francoeur didn’t drive them in, doesn’t meant that no one did. And with RISP with 2 outs, he did hit .250.

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]]> By: Coley Ward http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-56297 Coley Ward Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:37:59 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-56297 What if Francoeur had been in triple-A, where he probably belongs? How many runs would the Braves have scored with a different outfielder? I've gotta believe that if Atlanta took Frenchy's .198 average with runners in scoring position and replaced it with somebody who hit even .250 with RISP, that would make a big difference. What if Francoeur had been in triple-A, where he probably belongs? How many runs would the Braves have scored with a different outfielder? I’ve gotta believe that if Atlanta took Frenchy’s .198 average with runners in scoring position and replaced it with somebody who hit even .250 with RISP, that would make a big difference.

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-56296 Paul Moro Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:00:21 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-56296 Sarah, the program takes into account OBP and SLG for each player (and nothing else) and then projects, based on those two stats, how many runs are expected to be produced. It then tries out every possible lineup combination and spits out the best and worst lineups possible. Of course, it's not perfect. There's a lot of stuff that doesn't get taken into account. But it's a good, clean indicator that levels the playing field. Sarah, the program takes into account OBP and SLG for each player (and nothing else) and then projects, based on those two stats, how many runs are expected to be produced. It then tries out every possible lineup combination and spits out the best and worst lineups possible. Of course, it’s not perfect. There’s a lot of stuff that doesn’t get taken into account. But it’s a good, clean indicator that levels the playing field.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-56295 Sarah Green Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:22:14 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-56295 Well, I'm not sure quite how BM (really? that's an unfortunate acronym) calculates those things, but I know that JD Drew hitting in front of Manny Ramirez has been much more productive than JD Drew hitting in front of Jason Varitek this year. People in Boston are all talking about how Drew has "emerged" as a productive hitter, and how he's "stepped up" with Papi injured. But really, I think he's just benefiting from having a guy with a .312 career average behind him, rather than the guy who is hitting .219 this year. Well, I’m not sure quite how BM (really? that’s an unfortunate acronym) calculates those things, but I know that JD Drew hitting in front of Manny Ramirez has been much more productive than JD Drew hitting in front of Jason Varitek this year. People in Boston are all talking about how Drew has “emerged” as a productive hitter, and how he’s “stepped up” with Papi injured. But really, I think he’s just benefiting from having a guy with a .312 career average behind him, rather than the guy who is hitting .219 this year.

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-56293 Paul Moro Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:17:54 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-56293 I'll be the party pooper. I really think that batting orders are not nearly as important as we think. I tried out Baseball Musings' lineup analysis for some numbers. With Francoeur batting sixth, the Braves project to score 4.879 runs per game. If he had been put into the #8 spot all year, they would have scored 4.885 runs per game. So that's a difference of .006 runs per game. Less than a run over 162 games. Take it for what you will. I’ll be the party pooper. I really think that batting orders are not nearly as important as we think. I tried out Baseball Musings’ lineup analysis for some numbers. With Francoeur batting sixth, the Braves project to score 4.879 runs per game. If he had been put into the #8 spot all year, they would have scored 4.885 runs per game. So that’s a difference of .006 runs per game. Less than a run over 162 games. Take it for what you will.

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]]> By: Danny O http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-56294 Danny O Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:04:35 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-56294 For the record, Francoeur has seen some time in the 7 spot. But you're exactly right, he has gotten far too much PT and is hitting too high in the lineup. It's hurting McCann, who usually hits 5th, to have his buddy Frenchy behind him. McCann is known for having a good eye, but this year he already has 39 walks, just two shy of his career high. A guy hitting .300 needs some better protection than Francoeur. It’s a pretty small sample, but since I went to the trouble of compiling it, I’m gonna mention it. Tidbits from the five games that the Braves have played when Francoeur wasn’t in the lineup: The Braves have gone 3-2 over that span, scoring 20 runs. The replacement rightfielders (Gregor Blanco in the second game of a doubleheader against the Mets and Jason Perry for the four games that Francoeur was sent down to AA) have gone 2 for 20 and left nine men on base. Seven of those runners left on were by Jason Perry in the 17 inning victory against the Astros. No walks, four strikeouts, no runs scored, and one RBI. So the production has been paltry in right no matter who’s been there. For the record, Francoeur has seen some time in the 7 spot. But you’re exactly right, he has gotten far too much PT and is hitting too high in the lineup. It’s hurting McCann, who usually hits 5th, to have his buddy Frenchy behind him. McCann is known for having a good eye, but this year he already has 39 walks, just two shy of his career high. A guy hitting .300 needs some better protection than Francoeur.

It’s a pretty small sample, but since I went to the trouble of compiling it, I’m gonna mention it. Tidbits from the five games that the Braves have played when Francoeur wasn’t in the lineup: The Braves have gone 3-2 over that span, scoring 20 runs. The replacement rightfielders (Gregor Blanco in the second game of a doubleheader against the Mets and Jason Perry for the four games that Francoeur was sent down to AA) have gone 2 for 20 and left nine men on base. Seven of those runners left on were by Jason Perry in the 17 inning victory against the Astros. No walks, four strikeouts, no runs scored, and one RBI. So the production has been paltry in right no matter who’s been there.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-50005 Nick Kapur Tue, 03 Jun 2008 10:28:49 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-50005 Sarah, what I can only presume are Nancy Drew references are entirely lost on me. Sarah, what I can only presume are Nancy Drew references are entirely lost on me.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-49977 Sarah Green Mon, 02 Jun 2008 18:16:46 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-49977 It helps if you have Titian blonde hair, a yellow convertible, and a friend who knows judo. It helps if you have Titian blonde hair, a yellow convertible, and a friend who knows judo.

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-49975 Nick Kapur Mon, 02 Jun 2008 16:51:29 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-49975 Well as long as you are admitting that you liked Nancy Drew, I will cop to liking the Hardy Boys. They always made detective-izing look so easy! Apparently deduction is not necessary, because all you have to do is convince the villain to tell you his evil plan right before he kills you, and then escape at the last second! Well as long as you are admitting that you liked Nancy Drew, I will cop to liking the Hardy Boys. They always made detective-izing look so easy! Apparently deduction is not necessary, because all you have to do is convince the villain to tell you his evil plan right before he kills you, and then escape at the last second!

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/23/blame-cox-just-a-little/comment-page-1/#comment-49974 Sarah Green Mon, 02 Jun 2008 15:34:40 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2478#comment-49974 Oh man. For me it was Nancy Drew---all Nancy, all the time. No baseball connection whatsoever, except that for a brief while I was so addicted I even insisted on bringing the books with me to Fenway. Oh man. For me it was Nancy Drew—all Nancy, all the time. No baseball connection whatsoever, except that for a brief while I was so addicted I even insisted on bringing the books with me to Fenway.

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