Comments on: 2008 Trade Deadline Roundup: Knee-jerk Analysis of All the Trades, as They Happen http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/ In-your-face baseball commentary Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:44:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56428 Nick Kapur Sat, 02 Aug 2008 17:17:10 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56428 Sarah, in my defense, I never actually said that Jason Bay is fantastic on defense. I just said that he is a big improvement over Manny on defense. And let's face it - who wouldn't be? Almost anyone would be an improvement on defense over Manny, and Bay certainly is. Sarah, in my defense, I never actually said that Jason Bay is fantastic on defense. I just said that he is a big improvement over Manny on defense. And let’s face it – who wouldn’t be? Almost anyone would be an improvement on defense over Manny, and Bay certainly is.

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]]> By: melissa http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56427 melissa Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:31:55 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56427 It's probably time to let this go but I ran across an article on Baseball Prospectus by Christina Kahrl and couldn't resist. Here are some excerpts: "However much this wound up being a hail mary or an anticlimax, for the Red Sox, it's a straightforward good move. As improbable as it may or may not be that Bay outproduces Ramirez for the balance of the year-as he has already this season, with an EqA of .319 to Manny's .306-and as much chemistry gets either washed out or restocked or put in the right beakers or whatever metaphor you can torture on behalf of the clubhouse amity, this can be seen as a straightforward case of addition by addition. Bay's six and a half years younger and as productive right now, as PECOTA's MORP projections for both men reflect, and in the immediate future there's every reason to expect Bay to be worth what you'd wind up paying and fulfill what you need from a mid-lineup bopper in left; Manny, not so much. As great as Manny's past was, does anyone think he's going to slug .600 again? Because if he doesn't do that, you've got a player doing a lot of the same things Bay does, only with considerably more drama and expense, and with considerably worse defense, however much Red Sox Nation might have been inclined to trot out the standard "but he plays the Wall well" defense that has been a prop for bad-fielding Red Sox left fielders for decades." "So, in short, Theo Epstein and company did it. The "prospects" they surrendered were filler players in danger of being crowded out of the 40-man, and Manny was the thorn in the franchise's side who'd long since become infectious. As this proposition goes-lancing that wound, saving perhaps more than $20 million over the next two years, not hurting the lineup now while almost certainly helping it in the next season or two to come-taken together the benefits of the trade provide a range of outcomes to keep everyone happy: fans, statheads, bean-counters, and even player-development types worried about the Rule 5 draft. Consider this nothing short of a brilliant achievement, and the product of an inspired effort." Going forward it appears to me that the Red Sox have upgraded the position and it's going to cost them less. Bay is scheduled to make $7.5 million in 2009 and is then arbitration eligible. Would the Red Sox have been able to bring in a free agent in 2009 of Bay's caliber at that price? Doubtful. I stand by my initial contention that Epstein pantsed the competition. It’s probably time to let this go but I ran across an article on Baseball Prospectus by Christina Kahrl and couldn’t resist.
Here are some excerpts:
“However much this wound up being a hail mary or an anticlimax, for the Red Sox, it’s a straightforward good move. As improbable as it may or may not be that Bay outproduces Ramirez for the balance of the year-as he has already this season, with an EqA of .319 to Manny’s .306-and as much chemistry gets either washed out or restocked or put in the right beakers or whatever metaphor you can torture on behalf of the clubhouse amity, this can be seen as a straightforward case of addition by addition. Bay’s six and a half years younger and as productive right now, as PECOTA’s MORP projections for both men reflect, and in the immediate future there’s every reason to expect Bay to be worth what you’d wind up paying and fulfill what you need from a mid-lineup bopper in left; Manny, not so much. As great as Manny’s past was, does anyone think he’s going to slug .600 again? Because if he doesn’t do that, you’ve got a player doing a lot of the same things Bay does, only with considerably more drama and expense, and with considerably worse defense, however much Red Sox Nation might have been inclined to trot out the standard “but he plays the Wall well” defense that has been a prop for bad-fielding Red Sox left fielders for decades.”

“So, in short, Theo Epstein and company did it. The “prospects” they surrendered were filler players in danger of being crowded out of the 40-man, and Manny was the thorn in the franchise’s side who’d long since become infectious. As this proposition goes-lancing that wound, saving perhaps more than $20 million over the next two years, not hurting the lineup now while almost certainly helping it in the next season or two to come-taken together the benefits of the trade provide a range of outcomes to keep everyone happy: fans, statheads, bean-counters, and even player-development types worried about the Rule 5 draft. Consider this nothing short of a brilliant achievement, and the product of an inspired effort.”

Going forward it appears to me that the Red Sox have upgraded the position and it’s going to cost them less. Bay is scheduled to make $7.5 million in 2009 and is then arbitration eligible. Would the Red Sox have been able to bring in a free agent in 2009 of Bay’s caliber at that price? Doubtful. I stand by my initial contention that Epstein pantsed the competition.

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]]> By: Sarah Green http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56426 Sarah Green Fri, 01 Aug 2008 22:50:33 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56426 Okay, okay, Nick, I have a tendency to automatically believe what you say when we talk about baseball and I have no internet handy. So yesterday when you told me over the phone that Bay was this fantastic defender, I believed you---but today, I read Amalie Benjamin's piece in the Globe and she said his defense wasn't that great. So I've just been looking over his fielding percentage, zone rating, and range factor, and all three are in the bottom half of MLB outfielders. He may be an upgrade over Manny---who, as Lyndsay points, out, had gotten to know Fenway's quirky left field very well, and who surprised quite a few baserunners by getting the ball back to the infield very quickly---but he's not the defensive whiz you led me to believe he was. Okay, okay, Nick, I have a tendency to automatically believe what you say when we talk about baseball and I have no internet handy. So yesterday when you told me over the phone that Bay was this fantastic defender, I believed you—but today, I read Amalie Benjamin’s piece in the Globe and she said his defense wasn’t that great. So I’ve just been looking over his fielding percentage, zone rating, and range factor, and all three are in the bottom half of MLB outfielders. He may be an upgrade over Manny—who, as Lyndsay points, out, had gotten to know Fenway’s quirky left field very well, and who surprised quite a few baserunners by getting the ball back to the infield very quickly—but he’s not the defensive whiz you led me to believe he was.

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]]> By: Paul Moro http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56425 Paul Moro Fri, 01 Aug 2008 20:23:06 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56425 John, Lee's not THAT bad. Compared to Manny, he's a gazelle out there covering ground. Carlos Lee has 40 out of zone plays in 844 innings. Manny has 14 in 537. That's not even close. And Lee has a better revised zone rating as well. Plus, according to Justin Inaz' popular fielding metrics, Manny has actually allowed 14 more runs to score so far than the average LFer. Lee's at minus 0.53 runs so he's not nearly as bad. Every fielding metric seems to indicate that Manny was the worst defensive LFer in baseball. John, Lee’s not THAT bad. Compared to Manny, he’s a gazelle out there covering ground. Carlos Lee has 40 out of zone plays in 844 innings. Manny has 14 in 537. That’s not even close. And Lee has a better revised zone rating as well. Plus, according to Justin Inaz’ popular fielding metrics, Manny has actually allowed 14 more runs to score so far than the average LFer. Lee’s at minus 0.53 runs so he’s not nearly as bad. Every fielding metric seems to indicate that Manny was the worst defensive LFer in baseball.

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]]> By: John Royal http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56424 John Royal Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:54:56 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56424 If you think Manny is the worst defensive left fielder in baseball, then you have obviously never watched Carlos Lee. If you think Manny is the worst defensive left fielder in baseball, then you have obviously never watched Carlos Lee.

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]]> By: Lyndsay http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56423 Lyndsay Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:33:03 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56423 is that any worse than Youkilis sending everyone's equipment flying all over the place every time he strikes out? I think the "Manny is clubhouse cancer" theme is totally overblown. is that any worse than Youkilis sending everyone’s equipment flying all over the place every time he strikes out? I think the “Manny is clubhouse cancer” theme is totally overblown.

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]]> By: Tom Hoffman http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56422 Tom Hoffman Fri, 01 Aug 2008 18:51:46 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56422 Let's not forget that aside from his ability with a bat, Manny has been a lazy, malingering, insubordinate, belligerant, royal migraine headache for the whole team, who have had to live with him everyday, sometimes defending themselves from his physical attacks and always listening to his bleating complaints about what a rotten place Boston is. He has certainly been a corrosive element to team morale. As the Herald so nicely pointed out "Sox Bid Bum Adieu: selfish slugger will fit in niocely in La-la land" Let’s not forget that aside from his ability with a bat, Manny has been a lazy, malingering, insubordinate, belligerant, royal migraine headache for the whole team, who have had to live with him everyday, sometimes defending themselves from his physical attacks and always listening to his bleating complaints about what a rotten place Boston is. He has certainly been a corrosive element to team morale. As the Herald so nicely pointed out “Sox Bid Bum Adieu: selfish slugger will fit in niocely in La-la land”

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]]> By: Nick Kapur http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56421 Nick Kapur Fri, 01 Aug 2008 14:35:44 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56421 Lyndsay, Manny's big problem is range. He has the worst range of any left fielder in all of baseball, and it's not even close. It's not so much about throwing arm or high-fiving ability. Range is far more important, because if you can't get to balls, they go from outs to hits, often extra base hits in the outfield. The reason why Fenway is easier for Manny to play is because he doesn't have to cover as much ground. In other parks he is overmatched defensively. Bay has much better range than Manny (he used to play centerfield), so he does in fact represent a huge defensive upgrade. Also, I think the "adjusting to the AL" theme is overplayed. Typically, in recent years, hitters see about a 4% dropoff in production when they move from the NL to the AL. However, I suspect that much of this dropoff will be negated by Bay moving from PNC Park to Fenway for home games, and also being in a better lineup. Lastly, the batting average stat you cited is not impressive, first of all because it is batting average, but second of all because you are comparing the first half of Bay's career to all of Manny's, which includes all of Manny's peak years, but only some of Bay's. Manny is in decline now, so we are really comparing a near-peak Bay with a late-30s decline-phase Manny. Bay's combined OPS for the last four years is over .900, and is very similar to Manny's OPS over the last four years. Lyndsay, Manny’s big problem is range. He has the worst range of any left fielder in all of baseball, and it’s not even close. It’s not so much about throwing arm or high-fiving ability. Range is far more important, because if you can’t get to balls, they go from outs to hits, often extra base hits in the outfield. The reason why Fenway is easier for Manny to play is because he doesn’t have to cover as much ground. In other parks he is overmatched defensively. Bay has much better range than Manny (he used to play centerfield), so he does in fact represent a huge defensive upgrade.

Also, I think the “adjusting to the AL” theme is overplayed. Typically, in recent years, hitters see about a 4% dropoff in production when they move from the NL to the AL. However, I suspect that much of this dropoff will be negated by Bay moving from PNC Park to Fenway for home games, and also being in a better lineup.

Lastly, the batting average stat you cited is not impressive, first of all because it is batting average, but second of all because you are comparing the first half of Bay’s career to all of Manny’s, which includes all of Manny’s peak years, but only some of Bay’s. Manny is in decline now, so we are really comparing a near-peak Bay with a late-30s decline-phase Manny. Bay’s combined OPS for the last four years is over .900, and is very similar to Manny’s OPS over the last four years.

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]]> By: Lyndsay http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56420 Lyndsay Fri, 01 Aug 2008 13:47:35 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56420 Melissa, you said a few things that are not exactly true about this situation, which I would like to point out: first off, this: "Bay is a huge defensive upgrade who should have no problem adjusting to what is probably the easiest left field to cover in the majors." I wouldn't call him a "huge" defensive upgrade. scouting report on him has him at an okay throwing arm at best. when Manny was making the effort, he was actually a good outfielder - could Bay have made the high-five play? doubtful. second, just because it's short does not make it the easiest left field to play because of all the corners and playing balls off the wall - guys who have never played at Fenway before have been known to have trouble with it - example, last year's ALCS, that corner had the Indians outfield confused and misjudging plays. Manny knew how to play balls off the wall and in the corners. add to the fact that Bay hasn't batted against AL pitching and I see a period of adjustment here before he's actually contributing. and I think you're overblowing him here - he has a career batting average of .282. comparable to .312 MANNY? no way. he's a JD Drew trade, not a Manny trade. I just would have liked if they had worked out getting an additional reliever in the mix. Melissa, you said a few things that are not exactly true about this situation, which I would like to point out:

first off, this: “Bay is a huge defensive upgrade who should have no problem adjusting to what is probably the easiest left field to cover in the majors.”

I wouldn’t call him a “huge” defensive upgrade. scouting report on him has him at an okay throwing arm at best. when Manny was making the effort, he was actually a good outfielder – could Bay have made the high-five play? doubtful.

second, just because it’s short does not make it the easiest left field to play because of all the corners and playing balls off the wall – guys who have never played at Fenway before have been known to have trouble with it – example, last year’s ALCS, that corner had the Indians outfield confused and misjudging plays. Manny knew how to play balls off the wall and in the corners. add to the fact that Bay hasn’t batted against AL pitching and I see a period of adjustment here before he’s actually contributing. and I think you’re overblowing him here – he has a career batting average of .282. comparable to .312 MANNY? no way. he’s a JD Drew trade, not a Manny trade.

I just would have liked if they had worked out getting an additional reliever in the mix.

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]]> By: AT http://umpbump.com/press/2008/07/31/2008-trade-deadline-roundup-knee-jerk-analysis-of-all-the-trades-as-they-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-56419 AT Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:39:51 +0000 http://umpbump.com/press/?p=2576#comment-56419 I must say that I'm torn on this one. Manny was a player I always wanted on Boston and thought he would be here for the rest of his life. Sure the antics were a little much sometimes, but the three four punch of Manny and Papi were just a force to be reckoned with. It won't be the same without him. Plus, while Hanson and Moss weren't the greatest (I actually liked Moss and am a little sad to see him go), it seems to me a little much to give up those two and Manny and money just to get Bay. It sounds like Boston was just finally sick of dealing with Manny and open to anything they could get, especially in wake of Manny's trade dare. The ease of that is the money situation will be better for Boston and we still get Bay which is great for us. All in all, I still am on the fence about this one. It'll be hard not to see Manny going through the green monster to hit the head or take a phone call in the middle of play. He was a staple in the Boston outfield that I'll miss. I must say that I’m torn on this one. Manny was a player I always wanted on Boston and thought he would be here for the rest of his life. Sure the antics were a little much sometimes, but the three four punch of Manny and Papi were just a force to be reckoned with. It won’t be the same without him.

Plus, while Hanson and Moss weren’t the greatest (I actually liked Moss and am a little sad to see him go), it seems to me a little much to give up those two and Manny and money just to get Bay. It sounds like Boston was just finally sick of dealing with Manny and open to anything they could get, especially in wake of Manny’s trade dare.

The ease of that is the money situation will be better for Boston and we still get Bay which is great for us.

All in all, I still am on the fence about this one. It’ll be hard not to see Manny going through the green monster to hit the head or take a phone call in the middle of play. He was a staple in the Boston outfield that I’ll miss.

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