What they need: Philadelphia Phillies — to trade Ryan Howard
The Rolling Stones have this song, and we can’t remember the words off the top of our heads, but the jist of it is that you can’t always get what you want, but sometimes fate conspires to give you what you need. Umpbump is here to shed some light on what each team is missing, and how they can get what they need, even if it’s not exactly what they want.
The only thing harder than winning a World Series is repeating as World Series champions. But hey, why can’t us?
Recently, Inquirer sports writer Todd Zolecki speculated that the Phillies payroll will surely increase next season, because lots of guys are scheduled to receive arbitration raises:
Players that made $51.225 million last season are scheduled to make $70.25 million next season.
Now consider the 10 players eligible for salary arbitration: Joe Blanton ($3.7 million last season), Eric Bruntlett ($600,000), Clay Condrey ($420,000), Greg Dobbs ($440,000), Chad Durbin ($900,000), Cole Hamels ($500,000), Ryan Howard ($10 million), Ryan Madson ($1.4 million), Shane Victorino ($480,000) and Jayson Werth ($1.7 million).
Those 10 players made $20.14 million last season. They will make much more than that in 2009. How much? It’s tough to say. But let’s say that group makes $30 million next season, which I think is a conservative estimate. That means the Phillies already have spent more than $100 million on salaries after opening last season with a $103 million payroll.
Actually, Zolecki’s estimate is probably very light. I ran his “$30 million” projection by MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes, who pointed out that “Hamels/Howard could account for a 10 mil raise alone.” I’ve gotta agree with Tim. Let’s say the Phillies payroll will be $110 million — still a conservative number — and that’s before signing Jamie Moyer or deciding who is going to play left field.
Fortunately, there is some good news:
- Jimmy Rollins is signed to a ridiculously affordable contract through 2011.
- Winning the World Series means increased season ticket sales, increased merchandise sales, and generally more money to spend.
- This is the last season the Phillies will have to pay Jim Thome to play for the White Sox ($3 million) and Adam Eaton to pitch in triple-A.
The Phillies game plan appears set:
- Play Pedro Feliz at third base this season and let him walk after 2009 if Jason Donald performs well at triple-A this season. Donald has been a bit of a surprise, posting a .296 average, .384 OBP and .458 slugging percentage in over 1,000 minor league at bats. Right now he’s a shortstop, but he’s got an above average arm and the Phils will probably try him at third base this season.
- Resign Jamie Moyer.
- Try to sign Ryan Howard to a contract extension (not going to happen).
- Let Pat Burrell test the free agent market and then sign him to a one or two year contract after he discovers that there isn’t much of a market out there for left fielders who can’t field.
- If Burrell doesn’t return, platoon Geoff Jenkins and Greg Dobbs in left field (even though they’re both left-handed hitters).
Personally, I think this is a fine plan. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? A Jenkins/Dobbs platoon would represent an offensive downgrade in left field, but a defensive upgrade. It’s not a wash, but it’s not a huge step back, either.
Still, let me present an alternate course of action, one that would surely raise a few eyebrows, but would put the team on track for a third consecutive playoff appearance:
1. Trade Pedro Feliz to the Rangers for Hank Blalock. The Rangers need a third baseman and are looking for somebody to improve their infield defense. Feliz is one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball and is scheduled to make $5 million in 2009 and has a club option for $5 million in 2010, with a $500K buyout. Blalock, on the other hand, will make $6.2 million in 2009 before becoming a free agent. Blalock would play first base for the Phillies.
2. Trade Ryan Howard to the Giants for Matt Cain. The Giants have shown a willingness to take on big salaries and are desperate to add punch to an offense that was second to last in the NL in runs scored in 2008 and way, way last in home runs. Cain, for his part, would give the Phillies some salary relief (he’s signed through 2010 with an affordable club option for 2011) and a formidable rotation, alongside Brett Myers and Cole Hamels.
3. Sign Jamie Moyer. He won 15 games last season and his ERA improved to 3.71 in 2008, from 5.01 in 2007. Plus, he’s a mentor to the younger pitchers and an all around great guy. When he retires, the Phillies should make him a coach. If he ever retires.
4. Let Pat Burrell walk. This season, Burrell’s power justified his crappy defense. But that won’t be the case for much longer. Burrell might not want to admit it, but his future is as a DH. He needs to sign with an AL club. When he does sign with another club, the Phillies will get two draft picks.
5. Play Greg Dobbs at third. He hit over .300 in 2008 and will serve as a capable stop-gap until Jason Donald is ready for the big time.
6. Sign Juan Rivera to play left field. He won’t require the Phillies to forfeit any draft picks and as a career backup he shouldn’t demand a high salary. Last season, in 256 at bats, Rivera’s OBP was .282. Ewww. But in 2006, in 256 at bats, his OBP was .364. I’m speculating that, given a change of scenery and the chance to play everyday, Rivera will perform. Could be a low cost/high reward move. And if Rivera is a bust, the Phillies still have Geoff Jenkins as a fallback plan.
If the Phillies follow my blueprint, their 2009 roster would actually be more affordable (around $105 million, assuming Rivera makes approximately $6 million) and would look like this:
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
RF Jayson Werth
2B Chase Utley
1B Hank Blalock
LF Juan Rivera
3B Greg Dobbs
C Carlos Ruiz
SP Cole Hamels
SP Matt Cain
SP Brett Myers
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Joe Blanton
CL Brad Lidge
Here’s the problem with the new lineup: fewer home runs. Replacing Howard, Burrell and Feliz with Blalock, Rivera and Dobbs means less power. But a full season of Werth should translate into more home runs from the right field position. I’d predict a net loss of about 20-25 homers, though maybe as few as 10 if Blalock and Rivera live up to their potential. Meanwhile, adding Cain to the team makes Philly’s rotation certifiably nasty, and the bullpen remains a strength, anchored by Lidge.
UPDATE: I should note that I realize that this is exactly the kind of pointless speculation that only the most hopeless of baseball nerds indulge in. But it was a slow day at the office.
November 10th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
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November 10th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
I totally agree. Howard is so futile against lefties – it’s getting painful to watch.
I hope he gets the MVP, and they move him for some pieces for the future. Ryan was a key player, and helped deliver the World Series to Philly, but he now wants big time money, and the Phils shouldn’t give it to him.
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November 10th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I understand why Howard doesn’t want to give the Phillies a hometown discount. The organization kept him in the minors way longer than was necessary. But his growing cost and inability to hit lefties (plus his crappy defense) is enough for me to think trading him is the right move. Though, I do love those Subway commercials.
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November 10th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I dont know if I could imagine seeing the phils drop Howard! The guy was the catalyst that started to get us back in the post season and helped us win it. It would be hard seeing him go.
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November 10th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Michael, that’s why they won’t trade him. But they should. His perceived value is much higher than his actual value.
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November 10th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Ryan Howard is the most overrated player in baseball; by the time he’s 32 he’ll be a platoon player at best, by the time he’s 35 he should be out of baseball. He can’t hit for average, can’t run, can’t play defense, doesn’t hit a lot of doubles, can’t hit lefties. He hits home runs and draws an above-average number of walks, and nothing else. Once his power atrophies inside of three years (which it will) he’ll have nothing left. He is a product of his park and the lineup around him, which bloats his RBI numbers. The sad thing is that a lot of people think he’s on track for the Hall of Fame and ought to win the MVP this year. His slash stats have declined across the board every full season he’s played. If I were the Phillies manager I’d shop him HARD. It was fun while it lasted but the Phils need to dump for a player that has a future longer than two seasons, and his value has never been higher.
I’ve been calling for Dobbs-over-Feliz since July, glad to see someone else finally doing the same.
The team should of course let Burrell walk, I’ll take two draft picks over an unwarranted, massive contract any day.
If Moyer would take a modest two-year deal, I’d keep him. If he asks for a dime more than he’s really worth, let him go. There is no reason for a team like the Phillies, which can afford big-time players, to waste money on a 45-year-old pitcher. There is no reason whatsoever. It isn’t huge contracts that kill teams, its lots of medium contracts for small time players. Moyer is good but is hell of old and only one season removed from a 5.00 ERA. If he asks for too much let him go.
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November 10th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
How about Ryan Howard for a top corner guy, and a prospect (pitching?), and then take the money saved from his salary (likely 15MM this year, after arb), and take a shot at Teixiera for say 5yr./100MM?
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November 11th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
There are a couple of problems with that proposal, not the least of which is that Teixeira turned down a seven year, $140 million offer from Texas a couple years ago. So he’ll require a lot more than 5/$100MM.
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November 11th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Also, I want to mention how shocked I am that a post about trading Ryan Howard, who just brought a national championship to Philly and could very well win a second MVP title this month, didn’t result in any nasty comments. Yet.
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November 12th, 2008 at 3:25 am
Howard had a sh*tty year in 08 ,even by his standards,and still did his job, producing runs. He hit well over .300 w/RISP all year long. That production got the Phillies the championship that has eluded them for so long. The Phils have been shortchanging this guy his whole career (until he made a stand and got some of his overdue money back). If he gets traded hopefully it’s to the Yankees who would actually appreciate him.
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November 12th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Steve, you’re looking at “producing runs” only from one side. Yes, it’s nice to have guys who can hit bombs to drive runs home. But the really good hitters also set the table – which is something that Howard isn’t good at.
Out of the 24 first basemen who qualified for a batting title, Howard was 19th in OBP. Those behind him were guys whose reputations aren’t nearly equal to Howard’s – Loney, Kotchman, Barton, Millar, and Jacobs. Which is why Coley thinks – and I agree with him – that his perceived value is much higher than his actual value.
Yes, Howard had a very good OBP in 2006 and 2007. But that was only because he was intentionally walked 37 and 35 times respectively. Once pitchers and managers realized he wasn’t Barry Bonds, they stopped doing so. And his OBP crashed.
This obviously isn’t to say that Howard hurt the Phillies because he didn’t. His positives outweigh the negatives. But there were a decent number of other first basemen who would’ve done a better job for much cheaper. Plus, guys with Howard’s body type don’t age well. I think we’ve already seen the best years of Ryan Howard’s career.
And if the Yankee fans can’t appreciate Jason Giambi, then they’re probably not going to appreciate Ryan Howard.
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November 13th, 2008 at 12:06 am
Yes, but it’s quite possible that due to the current economy, no one, well at least no one that’s not the Yankees are going to offer that same deal again. And he has expressed a desire to play somewhere near BAL, which is 100 miles down the I-95 from Philly.
Moving Howard to an AL team should be a snap, and with the windfall from last year, the savings from the Burrell contract, they should be able to make an offer to Tex in the neighborhood of 20-22MM a year, AND still be able to lock up Hamels, AND still stay within the supposed 125MM budget that has been bandied about this year. And, as Paul said above, even if they don’t get Tex, there are still a lot of 1B out there who can do a comparable job for a lot less.
I like Ryan, and heaven knows he’s a monster bat, but Tex is an even bigger monster, and every indication is that he’s coming into his prime, while RH may very well be moving into his decline phase. I think that the Phils should move him now while they can get max value for him and make every effort to sign this guy.
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November 13th, 2008 at 12:14 am
Oh, and also they still should have money room for that corner OF they need too, although some of the platoons that have been discussed (Werth/Jenkins/Dobbs, etc.) seem to have merit. The fact is, that just like you can find a guy to replace RH for less money, you can likely do the same in LF. The Phils are maybe the only team out there that can sacrifice some offense for a better OFF/DEF balance and possibly more pitching, so why not try it?
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November 14th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Ryan Howard is a stud—-he drives fear deep into the heart of the competion. If you trade him, the haul better be huge! He is a better athlete than he is given credit for (he was an outstanding Basketball player). He does need to improve his defense and will work at it since he is a competitor.
Reading these posts I would have thought the Phillies never made the playoffs and that Howard drove in 65 runs.
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November 14th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Michael, if he “drives fear deep into the heart of the competition”, please explain why he stopped getting intentionally walked so often in 2008.
Whatever athleticism he may have once had is pretty much gone at his size. And you need more than work to become a good defensive player. You need talent.
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November 14th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
that article was an amazing waste of time. congrats.
Only thing I could see them doing out of that mess is bringing back Moyer and taking a shot on Rivera (although that would be terrible).
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November 14th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
One big issue this article missed, which was briefly mentioned in the comments, is signing Cole Hamels. Amaro is certainly going to try to lock up Hamels for a long term contract.
Trading Howard is just not going to happen. Despite what his numbers might have been, and how frustrating it was to watch Howard strike out after 5,000 breaking balls were thrown to him during the playoffs, he has still carried this team on multiple occasions.
As was argued in his arbitration hearing last year, Howard is a special player and does a lot for the team on many levels. With his undeniably great production this year, he will be back for sure.
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November 14th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Since we have a lot of MLBTR people here today, I should mention that I talked to Tim before I wrote this post and he didn’t think the Giants would trade Cain for Howard. Paul didn’t think so either. I think they might be giving Brian Sabean a little too much credit, but if the Phillies can’t get Cain, they should target another top of the rotation arm.
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November 14th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Regarding signing Cole Hamels long term, I absolutely think the Phillies should do this, but I don’t think they will. I think they’re nervous about his back. But here’s the way I look at it: Hamels works out every morning for two hours doing back strengthening exercises, which is about two hours more exercise than the average ballplayer gets per day. This year, he pitched injury free all season. He’s an elite arm and he’s earned his extension. I say pay the man.
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November 14th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
I understand the frustration with Howard and understand he is somewhat overrated to the fan base, but I also hear he’s undervalued by other teams. Look at this proposed lineup and it’s a huge downgrade. Not only have you taken out two huge bats you have removed one of the better 3Bs from the field. When you have a Hamels and Moyer you better hope Dobbs is not at 3B. Last year’s team played well down the stretch but is not a 100-win team. The offense is what struggled, and now you want to severely downgrade it?
However if you are going to trade Howard, the BEST thing to do would be to get a pitcher for him and re-sign Burrell. Burrell could play a solid 1B. One thing you can’t deny is that he is real good with the glove, just can’t get to any balls to prove it! If you do that, then you can spend Howard’s money on signing Adam Dunn. His lack of defense can be made up by talented defense by Vic and Werth, and you have another left-handed power bat that plays everyday (like Howard but WITH OBP!!!)
Oh, and Hamels will get paid. If he doesn’t then we’ll quickly be wondering why Mr. Arbuckle is not manning the ship.
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November 14th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I hope Hamels gets paid. I really do.
As for signing Burrell to play first base…that’s a thought. I don’t know if he’s got it in him or not. The problem with that scenario is you probably have to give him three years to get him to stay, and then if it turns out he’s no good at first you’re stuck with him.
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November 14th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Yeah, but he probably wouldn’t be any worse than Howard there.
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November 15th, 2008 at 4:10 am
I totally agree with resigning Howard and then trading him to the Giants for Cain if they will pull the trigger. I want to add something to think about though. I heard a rumor before but what about putting Burrel at first to replace Howard, then all you have to do is either sign a free agent LF or use the platoon of Dobbs/Jenkins. As for trading Feliz, i think that they should keep him until Donald is ready especially if they want to repeat. I believe he will return to his numbers from 05-07 where he hit at least 20 HRs a season.
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