And regarding ABs with runners on: 278 in 2006 (20th in MLB). I’m not sure what you wanted me to do in 2005 since he only played 70 games.

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In both 2006 and 2007, if you add his runs and RBI together, you get a total of nearly 190. Pretty darn good.

Any time your runs plus RBI put you in the 200 neighborhood… you are a fairly big run producer. And Jeff Francoeur WAS exactly that from the moment of his call-up through the end of 07.

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The problem here is that we value completely different numbers so you’re right, we’re just going to disagree. But if his bounce-back number is a Adj OPS of 103, then I’m not going to think of him as a better than average player.

And the idea that having great hitters ahead of you hurts your RBI potential is a myth. Like I said, Francouer had 295 ABs with runners on base, which was 11th most in MLB in 2007 and the most among Braves. So he had a lot of chances. That part’s not skill.

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There are always a little bit of risk when bringing a Japanese pitcher over. But over time, major league teams have developed a metric for determining how Japanese pitching stats generally translate to big league pitching stats. Using those averages in along with the counsel of the scouting dept. teams are able to set reasonable expectations for a Japanese pitcher making the leap.

I only know what I’ve heard from Braves officials, one scout, and a couple of reporters I’ve talked to. And THEY could ALL wind being wrong. Who knows?

But to go back to my original point, I would feel comfortable wagering that he’ll be more effective than Blanton.

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As for the .444 SLG… not what you want from your cleanup hitter. But then, he wasn’t the cleanup hitter.

So he hit a lot of singles… so what? However he did it, be it with a single, a double, or a homer, he was getting the job done.

As you pointed out, prior to 08, he was one of the better clutch hitters in the league. Not just in 07, but prior to that as well.

I just don’t believe that you can whitewash a .292 average and 105 RBI by quoting his SLG and OBP. And one could argue that his hitting behind Chipper and Teixeira actually made it tougher for him to accrue the 105 RBI’s he tallied in 07.

And keep in mind that he also drove in 100 in 2006, and if you were to project his partial 05 season out to a full year… he was on pace to do it in his rookie season as well.

I’m not trying to turn him into a slick fielding version of Juan Gonzalez. I just respectfully disagree with your assertion that he was a “below average” outfielder in 07. I don’t think you could find a single person in Major League Baseball that would agree with that assessment.

He was very good. Not a superstar… but definitely a very good all around RF’er prior to 08.

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To his credit, he did do very well with RISP in 07. But then again, when you get 295 ABs with RISPs like he did that year, you’d better drive in at least 100. So you also have to give a lot of credit to Chipper, Tex and McCann who hit in front of him to give him all those chances.

And Gold Glove means absolutely nothing until people like Nate McLouth and Michael Young stop winning them. Francouer’s by no means bad defensively.
He’s pretty good, actually.

And though I get the sense that this won’t mean much to you, Francoeur had a .337 BABIP in 2007. So he was pretty lucky to even post slightly below-average numbers.

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Cole, I never said a bounce-back year was anything other than “far from certain”. Of course it’s far from certain. That’s why the Braves have been working the phones all winter to try and find another bat, and continue to do so.

And I must disagree with your assertion that the Braves are unlikely to get another bat this winter. I’m not saying it’s LIKELY that they will pick up another bat… there are not a whole lot of options out there. But I wouldn’t call it unlikely.

The Braves reportedly still have about 10 million (per) to spend. Neither Dunn nor Abreu are a perfect fit for the ATL (The Braves want a right-handed slugger who isn’t a defensive liability), but either would certainly help, and both seem to be slipping into a price range that force the Braves to consider them.

And they’ve had multiple discussions with the Yankees about Nady, and have a few other ongoing talks about which the Braves refuse offer details. The Braves farm system was recently rated the best in the league by Baseball America, so they certainly have the trade bait.

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Hamels vs. Lowe: I agree, Hamels is better… but not by a wide margin. In 08, Lowe went 14-11, with a 3.24 ERA, and Hamels went 14-10, with 3.09. Both tend to rise to the occasion in big games.

Myers VS. Vasquez… I agree, not much difference there. I suspect both will put up significantly better number than they did last year.

But the Braves advantage is not at the top end of the rotation. It’s in the middle and bottom of the rotation.

Cole, if you think Jurrjens is a “back-end” guy… then I now understand your perspective on the Braves pitching.

Jurrjens just completed a rookie season that saw him win 13 games and post an ERA of 3.68 (better than the rookie seasons of young aces like Lincecum and Hamels). And it’s not fool’s gold. Jurrjens has an excellent fastball that he can run up into the mid-90’s, and devastating changeup, and 2 other good very solid pitches. A couple years ago, Jurrjens was voted as having the best control of any pitcher in the Tigers’ system, and he does in fact have near-Glavine-like control. I have also heard numerous people in the Braves organization RAVING about his makeup and maturity. He understands pitching, and wants to pitch to contact and keep the ball on the ground, despite having the stuff to run up his strikeout total as most young hurlers with his stuff try to do.

Maybe Jurrjens will end up being nothing more than a middle-of-rotation or back-end guy. Sometimes even the best bets fizzle out. But from what I’ve seen… that’s pretty damned unlikely. I feel Jurrjens has already established himself as legitimate #2 starter, and certainly has a good chance to step up and become something more. If Jamie Moyer can continue to thumb his nose at Father Time, he’s certainly a solid starter… but I’d take Jurrjens over Moyer in 09, in a NY minute.

Kenshin Kawakami was also a nice pickup for Atlanta. He’s won the Japanese equivalent of the CY, and has been compared closely to LA’s H.Kuroda, both in style and overall career results. Kuroda posted a 3.73 ERA in 181 innings for LA in 08, and the consensus among analysts in these parts seems to be to expect something similar from Kawakami. We’ll have to wait and see… but I’d bet on his being significantly better than Joe Blanton.

As for the 5th starter… again Tommy Hanson is rated as one of the top few pitching prospects in baseball in Baseball America’s 09 prospect report and Keith Law’s Top-100 prospect list. I’ve heard more than one scout say they consider him to be the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball. The Braves will decide this spring whether to give him a spot in the rotation on opening day or start him out at AAA (just to be absolutely sure they’re not rushing him in the slightest), but consensus seems to be that he’s ready.

And there are number of other possible options for the #5 slot, from Tom Glavine (if he makes a successful comeback), to Jorge Campillo, who posted a 3.91 in 25 starts for ATL last year, to a couple of other ML ready prospects. I believe that whoever winds up anchoring the 5th slot is going to be significantly better than either Blanton or Kendrick and their mid-upper 5.00 range ERA’s.

As for the bullpen, the Braves could wind up with a slightly above average pen, or the best bullpen in baseball. It all depends on the health of Soriano and Moylan (again, two of the best late-inning relievers in the league, when healthy, both of whom missed most of 08) and the development of Blaine Boyer and Manny Acosta. Boyer and Acosta both have closer-like stuff and should benefit from not being overworked and thrust into late-inning roles they’re not ready for (as they were last year after bullpen injuries).

Unless sidelined by injuries, the Braves have a “Nasty Boys” type of trio at the back of their pen, and some other good arms to go with them. So I guess I should stipulate my earlier statement. IF the Braves bullpen IS HEALTHY, to go with a rotation that will likely include 5 quality starters… the Braves have the best pitching in the NL East.

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