Hot Offseason Action: Toronto Blue Jays
First, a bit of backstory: last year, I made fun of Toronto for essentially employing a passive strategy of waiting for Boston and New York fail simultaneously and unforeseeably. One year later, you can add Tampa to the list of beasts of the AL East, making this strategy even more pathetic. So I figured the time would come this winter when, perhaps, the Blue Jays would finally admit that just treading water and waiting for three good teams to all inexplicably underperform was not a strategy they could, in good conscience, continue to pursue.
And yet — and yet. GM JP Ricciardi essentially announced that the team was done before the offseason deals even began in earnest. After a rather feeble effort to retain AJ Burnett (who had made it pretty clear that he had no interest in staying) the Jays mostly twiddled their thumbs and began to count the days until spring, taking their do-nothing strategy to the hilt by doing what they do best: nothing.
So they’ll head into the 2009 season with the same flaccid offense that got them nowhere last year. How bad was their lineup last year? Well, I had Vernon Wells on my fantasy team, and despite missing 54 games due to injury, he still finished the year as the team’s home run leader. With 20. And this year, instead of having Burnett on their side, they’ll have to face him when they play New York. Shaun Marcum will miss the entire year after having Tommy John surgery, and the aforementioned Dustin McGowan will miss at least the first month of the season after having surgery on his labrum. So you’re looking at a team with a) no offense and b) no pitching.
Unfortunately, given that the Jays barely accomplished anything this winter, there is little to do now but recap Paul’s excellent post from our earlier What They Need series: Assuming that Roy Halladay continues to be Roy Halladay, the Jays should explore trading him at the deadline — he’s signed through the end of 2010 at about $13MM/year, which should make him valuable in a deal. And more than one insanely good player, what they need now is a lot of reasonably good — and cheap — players. They also still have enough good, young pitching lined up for 2010 that dealing Halladay is a risk I think they can afford to take. (Two particular areas to target: first and third base, and a defensive centerfielder that would allow Wells to move to left.) Another player to shop: closer BJ Ryan. His value come July (when the Jays will likely be 20 games back) will likely be high, and most teams overvalue closers anyway.
One bright spot should be a full season of Travis Snider, a beefy young masher who rose rapidly through the farm system last year — maybe too rapidly. Hopefully, the Jays will stick him at DH since he doesn’t really do anything but beefily mash. However, it would be nice if the Jays had picked someone up who could help spell Snider and perhaps ameliorate his growing pains. But they didn’t. (Note: Kevin Millar has recently been offered a minor league contract. Perhaps with this role in mind?)
In one sense, I sympathize with the Jays. I truly do. Last year, they actually had a better pythag than the Yankees. They had the best pitching in baseball, and usually, that’s enough to get you somewhere. And now, in the face of the global financial crisis, MLB’s only Canadian team is suffering from the decline of the Loonie compared to the greenback. Everyone — even subprime mortgage lenders and credit default-swappers — seems to be against them.
If the Toronto Blue Jays had a voice, I would imagine it to be a glum, Eyore kind of voice: “Heeeeyyyy, guuuys, thanks for noticin’ me.”
But you know what? Everyone’s got problems. And sitting around doing nothing isn’t the way to solve ‘em.
Added: Matt Clement, Brian Burres, TJ Beam, Brandon Fahey, Jason Lane, Michael Barrett,
Lost: AJ Burnett, Greg Zaun, Curtis Thigpen (subsequently re-signed to a minor league deal), Russ Adams, Kevin Mench, every shred of hope
Projected lineup:
2B: Joe Inglett/Aaron Hill
1B: Lyle Overbay
RF: Alex Rios
CF: Vernon Wells
LF: Adam Lind
DH: Travis Snider/Kevin Millar (?)
3B: Scott Rolen
C: Rod Barajas/Curtis Thigpen
SS: John MacDonald/Marco Scutaro
Projected rotation and closer:
SP1: Roy Halladay
SP2: Jesse Litsch
SP3: David Purcey
SP4: TBD
SP5: TBD
CL: BJ Ryan
Grade: F
The Jays needed to cut spending this year, and they didn’t. They needed to upgrade their offense, and they didn’t really. They needed to at least pick up a warm body to give them some innings after the loss of Burnett, nevermind the injuries to McGowan and Marcum, but all they did was sign Matt Clement to a minor league deal. Sure, there’s upside there — but just because it’s impossible for Clement to go any further down. From the mouth noises coming from the Jays’ front office, it sounds like their plan is just to wait until 2010, when they will have some more payroll flexibility, and then try and spend on free agents who can help them. But that strategy is dubious. So why wouldn’t they make at least a few intermediate moves to really save money and improve the team in the short term? Or, you know, even one serious intermediate move. Or half a move. Something. Anything.
In fact, Toronto did nothing this winter. There was no offseason action, hot or otherwise. So for this assignment, they get a zero.
- Hot Offseason Action index -
February 13th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Curtis Thigpen is not the backup to Barajas dumb ass.
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February 13th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
This is easily the most pathetic review of a baseball team that I have ever seen. Clearly you know nothing about the Blue Jays, especially when you list Joe Inglett before Aaron Hill. I’m not saying they’re going to win the world series, but there is little reason to believe that they will do any worse then last season. They still have the beset bullpen in baseball, the best starting pitcher in baseball, and an offense that has the potential to be very potent. Say what you will, but it would wrong.
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February 13th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Aaron Hill still isn’t confirmed as a starter. Concussions are such tricky things i don’t think it’s fair to expect Hill to start the season. Rolen as well better be back to health and playing Barajas full time definently didn’t work out for the phillies.
I honestly don’t know how after losing our 2,3,4 pitchers from last year we can still expect to have a great rotation since JP only got a bunch of scrubs to fill in. Hopefully Maroth comes back to form and Clement becomes useful.
We do have a good bullpen so our 2-5 pitchers only have to be good for 6 innings, but that will take a toll on the pen after a while of saving the rotation.
I don’t understand why people are giving this guy a hard time. He’s pretty accurate and i don’t think anyone will honestly say the Jays are battling for anything higher then 4th place in the AL East this year.
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February 13th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
And by the way, who is backing up Barajas? Arencibia or Barrett ?
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February 13th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
My bet is that the Jays will surprise the fans this year. Not because they’ll finish higher than 3rd or 4th.
But because of their depth of mediocrity. What I mean by that is that any player who fills an existing hole or replaces someone due to injury will be just mediocre enough to keep them at about .500 all year.
It will be a revolving door of mediocrity all year.
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February 13th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Whoa there, let’s not go nuts. The Jays are by no means in a good position, but the offence will certainly improve with full years of Snider (who is a better OF than Lind, and will play mostly in left), Lind, Wells, and Aaron Hill– no need to squeeze Inglett into that lineup. Add in that Rios improved his OPS by 140 points in the second half and that, in an albeit small September sample, Rolen and his adjusted swing went 307/354/523 in 96 PA. (No, I’m not ACTUALLY banking on Rolen, but I thought I’d throw it in there.)
And I think the pitching will be better than you think– especially once Cecil arrives.
All in all, I expect a strong fourth place finish from our boys.
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February 13th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
How did the Jays not cut spending this year? Or are you referring to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar? In that case, what an oblique way to say that.
This article was lazy and poorly researched, and it shows. It’s not too much to ask for a more reasonable/even-handed evaluation– even if you don’t think they are going to be any good.
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February 13th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
wow this is all crap
overbay hitting 2nd? no that would be Hills spot
and their lead off is Marco
Here is how it is going to be
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Aaron Hill
3. Alex Rios
4. Vernon Wells
5. Adam Lind
6. Scott Rolen
7. Lyle Overbay
8. Rod Barajas
9. Travis Snider
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February 13th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Woah whoah whoah. Before things get out of hand, let’s review a few things:
1. These lineups are my lineups. You can disagree with them, but these are just my opinion, not what I think the manager will actually do. I have given up trying to predict what managers will actually do because I mostly disagree with a lot of it (eg, putting the fast guy with a .320 OBP at leadoff). There should also be nothing inferred from having one guy “in front of” the other, above. I certainly wasn’t think about it that way when I wrote it.
2. For most of the other team previews, we only put one guy per position. However, the Jays have several positions where there’s no clear starter. (At least, in my mind.) For the Jays, this is not only true because they have guys who split time between positions, but because so many of their players are mediocre that there’s no clear-cut guy who deserves to start. It’s more about who is healthy, who ends up having a good year, and who’s pitching that day.
3. The Jays didn’t cut payroll in any meaningful way except by letting Burnett walk, and they tried to re-sign him anyway, which would have been lunacy. And they let Gregg Zaun walk away. Big deal. If I’m missing some big payroll-shedding move, please enlighten me.
Even so, these are just nit-picky details. It doesn’t change the fact that the Jays will be duking it out with the Orioles for fourth place. My main problem with Toronto is that — year after year after year after year — they pretend they’re contenders when they’re not. So they come in third or fourth and sputter in amazement when they miss the playoffs. Baltimore has finally gotten the newsflash and is in rebuilding mode. They have the minors’ best prospect coming up this year. What do the Jays have? Mediocre replacement-level players, aging players, and a few good players whose trade value depreciates the longer the Jays hold on to them.
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February 13th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Did you seriously list thigpen as one of the players we lost and as our back up catcher? Nice work genius.
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February 13th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Thanks Jeremy. He’d been DFA’d when I started the post but re-signed to a minor league deal by the time I finished it. I’ll correct the mistake.
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February 13th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
why would they trade halladay this year… he’s signed throught 2010… and 2010 is the year that management is aiming for… you don’t trade the best pitcher in baseball when you’re one year away from possibly doing something big… thats why snider is going to get a legitimate shot… same with purcey… and there’s a bunch of other young arms in the farm system that will at least get a shot in spring training… i personally dont think millar has a shot at making the team unless he’s on the bench… he won’t start.. cause then he would be taking at bats away from snider and lind… which is what the jays should avoid doing… but there’s no reason to trade halladay.. and i dont think there’s a reason to trade ryan either… you’re rating of F is pretty poor in my opinion… they are probably a C or C team at worst… they have the best bullpen in the majors still intact from last season… and they are getting jeremy accardo back… janssen will be back but should be a top candidate for a rotation spot… and they will hit the ball better than the did last year…and WHY would you think wells should play left field… did he not win 3 gold glove awards as a center fielder… this article is garbage
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February 13th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Jeff, Sarah’s not saying the Jay’s are the worst team in baseball, she’s saying they had a crappy offseason. And, let’s face it, Toronto didn’t do anything to get better this offseason. It’s true the organization has some promising prospects, but it’s a stretch to think this team is going to be competing for first place in 2010. That’s why trading Halladay now, when his value is at its highest, is a smart move.
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February 13th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Wow
Did you even consider doing research?
This is just more moronic nonsense written by someone who doesn’t actually care if their information is accurate. First of all it has been said that Snider will be playing LF in 09 and Lind will be the DH. Snider is not a liability in the field; he has average range and an above average arm for LF. If you did research you would realize this, and it would make your dumb idea to add “a defensive centerfielder that would allow Wells to move to left” moot. Also J.P. has said that Janssen will be the #4 starter, remember him 2.35 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 07. With McGowan coming back in May I believe that gives them an above average starting 5. With the best bullpen in baseball, they will have one of the best staffs in baseball again this year. Are they going to make the playoffs? Probable not. But, they will have a better record than the Rays, and if they get off to a good start they will be in the Wild Card race come September.
If you’re going to do a projection for a team you should probable do some research. Then you won’t sound like some uneducated hack that’s trying to get his job done as quickly as possible.
I’m not even going to mention your projected lineup or your mention of Curtis Thigpen.
Your Grade: F
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February 13th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
I’m happy to respond to intelligent criticism, but I am done responding to people who think that winning a Gold Glove means someone actually has good defense or that the Jays will have a better record than the Rays this year.
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February 13th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
“but I am done responding to people who think that winning a Gold Glove means someone actually has good defense:”
WTF
Your a idiot, this article is a joke. Sarah? i take it your a woman, that explains it all.
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February 13th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Sarah, how is losing Burnett and his 15 miilion theey would have paid not trimming payroll? They went from 98 mil to low to mid 80’s
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February 13th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
There is absolutely no reason why the Jays wont be just as good as last year. They have the same bulpen,better hitting with the new management and same pitching minus Burnett. You cant include McGowan or Marcum cause they never contributed last year and now they have Janssen back healthy along with 10 new guys to try out for the final 2-3 spots in the rotation. If they can find lightening in a bottle from any of them it would be a bonus. Also, remember back a few years ago when M & M surprised everyone while filling in for the injured starters. Pitching was supposed to be the weak spot that year too.
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February 13th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
This post is very anti-Blue Jays. First of all they did cut their spending; their payroll went from about 100million to 80 million. Apparently 20 million dollars is nothing right? Also, why didn’t you mention the amazing bullpen the Blue Jays have when you were giving them an F? As for the offense I hope that Cito can turn the Jays around. They are a group of under-achieving hitters who can produce much better numbers. Cut them some slack but you’re not going to since you’re anti-Blue Jay.
As for the Jays being passive and doing nothing I agree with you. The last two years they have been idiots and J.P. should be fired but this year is different. They are letting their young talent come up and get a taste of the bigs. I think that is better than signing a guy for a lot of money for one year. Also, they are saving up money for next year where they will sign people who will hopefully help them get into the playoffs. You cannot call the Blue Jays idiots this year; they said that they would not sign many players so that they could save up money for 2010.
I hope that you put some effort in your next post about the Jays because this one is terrible. Also, while you’re at it do some research. One huge mistake you made is saying that Snider is a worse fielder than Lind. It is the opposite. Also, Lind AND Snider will be splitting the DH duties. Vernon Wells should be moved to left field to block Adam Lind and Travis Snider right? Wells should be moved to left field because he only won three gold gloves as a center fielder right? We should be afraid of Burnett because he is always healthy and because he always has an 18-10 record not a record near 500 right? Ms. Green, I am guessing you are either a depressed Jays fan from back in the day, you just hate the Jays and/or you are a very poor writer who has the balls to write about a team that she knows very little about and is completely biased against.
Cheers,
Kevin
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February 13th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
“The Jays didn’t cut payroll in any meaningful way except by letting Burnett walk.”
I hope you can appreciate why a statement like that would provoke snide replies. It wasn’t like the Jays aggressively tried to re-sign Burnett, failed, and thereby cut payroll accidentally. They made an offer to Burnett for show with no intention of competing for his services, as part of a conscious decision to cut payroll. You also deserve legitimate criticism for not mentioning Casey Janssen in your preview, and for mischaracterizing Snider’s defensive abilities (reasonable fielder, good arm).
I don’t think the Jays will be very good this year either, and if you want to make that case in a condescending fashion without understanding their business case, that’s your editorial choice. Factual inaccuracies and ignorance of established baseball opinion can’t be defended, though.
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February 13th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Unfortunately, as much as I adore my Blue Jays, I have to agree with your assessment that the Jays will be fighting out with the Orioles for 5th spot. I have already resigned myself to a 70-92 season and look forward to seeing Doc pitch every 5th day. I believe that will be the only saving grace in ‘09. With weak ownership since Mr. Rogers passed away during the off-season, the Jays do not have the budget nor will they ever as Toronto supports hockey only, with the Raptors a distant second. I hope that 2010 will be a little more enjoyable with the young guns on the mound coming back, but I think they need a new corner infield with Overbay and Rolen beyond their best years. Snyder is too young to become an everyday player so Millar may help out. With a long year ahead, we;ll see you in 2010!.
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February 13th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I’ll accept that Lind may be a better fielder than Snider, but from what I have heard, Snider is really not very good and was the one being considered for DH. In fairness, I am going here on published reports. (So I I guess those people are moronic Jays haters too?) Either way, the end result is still that you have a couple of guys who you are trying to hide somewhere as opposed to good fielders.
Nonetheless, I don’t think that’s a bad thing. The Jays have solid defense — they can afford to sacrifice some defense for some offense.
Speaking of defense, I would really like to know what numbers you guys are looking at that support Vernon Wells as a good fielder. Because judging by things like range factor and UZR, Wells was hands down one of the worst CFs in the league last year. Plus, considering that one of his injuries last year was a pretty severe hamstring strain, I’d think you guys would want him in a less demanding position.
A big reason I was so harsh on the Jays is that I’m just sick of listening to Ricciardi give this same bs line every year about how “Oh we have a good club, it’s a tough division but we can contend.” I say this with love: it’s just not true.
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February 13th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
“Yes we can,” say it all together Jays fans. What’s not to like about an off-season that included picking up Kevin Millar and Michael Barrett? That alone should have given them at least a D-. Anyone that would think differently is obviously just a Jays hater. “Jays Fever, Catch It?”
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February 14th, 2009 at 12:04 am
“Speaking of defense, I would really like to know what numbers you guys are looking at that support Vernon Wells as a good fielder. Because judging by things like range factor and UZR, Wells was hands down one of the worst CFs in the league last year.”
One year. Three gold gloves. Wells is a terrible fielder of course. Also, Wells finished the year on the field not on the disabled list.
A big reason I was so harsh on the Jays is that I’m just sick of listening to Ricciardi give this same bs line every year about how “Oh we have a good club, it’s a tough division but we can contend.” I say this with love: it’s just not true.
Well that makes everything right as rain. Next time you write an article remind yourself what you want to talk about. If you hate Ricciardi, talk about Ricciardi. If you dislike the Jays then at least come up with reasonable arguments about why you dislike them.
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February 14th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Melissa, it’s true. Now that the Millar thing is finalized, I’m happy to grand the Jays and JP Ricciardi, who is the general manager of the Jays and hence the one responsible for both this offseason and the team’s long term strategy (such as it is) a D-.
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February 14th, 2009 at 11:04 am
And Kevin, please also be sure to include RBI as a meaningful metric in your future arguments. RBI and Gold Gloves: that’s what it’s all about.
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February 14th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Frank Thomas is off the Jays pay roll this year. Not just Burnett and Zaun. Consider yourself enlightened. Try doing some research next time.
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February 14th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
You see, I knew they deserved at least a D-, cause I did my research. It really doesn’t matter if there are at least 3 teams in their division that are better than the Jays because they are going to try really hard and they want it more. They might even win 9 gold gloves.
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February 15th, 2009 at 12:28 am
Oh yeah, Thomas! He last played for them in what…May? June? Sorry, I didn’t look it up. I didn’t do any research. But, I HAVE been drinking. And you know what they say: in vodka veritas.
Melissa, the Jays should be proud to come in fourth. That is a major accomplishment for MLB’s only Canadian team. For not coming in last, we should all praise them. Because they are the only team in the AL East who is not even attempting a stretagy. Yes, I’ll leave it spelled that way. GO JAYS.
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February 15th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Jays will come in 3rd!!! Mark my word!!
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February 15th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
“Speaking of defense, I would really like to know what numbers you guys are looking at that support Vernon Wells as a good fielder. Because judging by things like range factor and UZR, Wells was hands down one of the worst CFs in the league last year. Plus, considering that one of his injuries last year was a pretty severe hamstring strain, I’d think you guys would want him in a less demanding position.”
Wells shouldn’t play centre I agree. Rios should. Check your metrics and you will see he was one of the best centrefielders in baseball last year.
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February 16th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Jason, I’d be reasonably content with Rios at center. But then who to put in right? Would you move Wells to right?
Kevin, I’d really like to know who you think is coming in fourth. Because as much as it would fulfill one of my wildest dreams, I don’t see this Yankees team falling that far. And it would take a catastrophe for that to happen to Tampa Bay or Boston.
For what it’s worth, Keith Law ranked the Jays’ organization 18th in MLB. I’m not sure their prospect pool, as it is, are enough to put them over the top in ‘10 — even if they perform well. But the Jays could easily augment their prospect pipeline…with one very big trade!
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February 19th, 2009 at 10:10 am
I’m a long-time Jays fan, but the team is starting to anger me with its lack of direction. Yes they can’t expect to compete monetarily with the Yankees and Red Sox, but year after year JP is building teams which would cap out in the high 80s, which just isn’t good enough. I don’t think there was much they could have done this off-season simply because they’ve painted thereselves into a corner with few prospects because of poor drafting and overpaying solid players as stars (Vernon Wells, anyone). JP needs to go and the team needs to be shaken up. I don’t want to trade Doc, but that might be what is required to start rebuilding into the 90 win club the Jays need to be if they have any hope of actually competing.
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February 19th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Hey Sarah stop talking
you have no idea what you are talking about
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February 19th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
and why would you put Snider 5th? he is 21 your line up sucks how about that
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February 19th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Erik, you are concise and persuasive. I feel like time-strapped people would do better just to read your comment than to labor through my lengthy post! All I would like is to see the Jays accept reality and at least devise a strategy. The Orioles – whose preview I will be posting tomorrow, I hope – at least have a strategy they can articulate: grow the arms, buy the bats. There, was that so hard?
Joe, I’m not sure what you’re saying. Snider is 6th in my lineup. How about that?
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February 21st, 2009 at 10:33 pm
are you a jays fan sarah?
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