Hot Offseason Action: New York Mets
Back in October, the New York Mets once again played the role of the little orphan children looking into the window of an aristocratic family serving Christmas dinner by a roaring fireplace in a Dickens novel. And although we’re already in February, the majority of the team remains interestingly unchanged save for one area – the bullpen.
Let me just state that on paper, the Mets bullpen didn’t need much fixin’. Yes, they were awful down the stretch. Down. Right. Awful. Luis Ayala is not a man who should be pitching meaningful innings. But their collectively terrible performance was an unlikely occurrence. Had the Mets kept the 
entire corp in tact, I’m confident that the pen would have been better in 2009. You can’t keep rolling snake eyes for that long.
But Mets fans wanted a change and a change is what they got. Francisco Rodriguez was signed to take over the closing duties. New York traded for J.J. Putz, who may actually be the team’s best reliever, and they received groundball machine Sean Green in the same deal. They also signed Tim Redding who will most likely be the long man, and acquired Connor Robertson by dumping Scott Schoeneweis on Arizona’s lap. For better or worse, the Mets bullpen will have a very different look in 2009.
At this point in the post I should point out that 2008 was a fluke, and bullpens are almost never as big a factor as they were in last season’s NL East race. While the Mets pen imploded, the Phillies enjoyed a perfect season from Brad Lidge. How often do such extremes occur? The majority of a single baseball game is played with the starters still on the mound, so more often than not, it’s the guys taking the ball at the onset of the game that makes the bigger impact.
The Mets brought in some new names on the starting pitching front but whether they’re better than their replacements is unclear. Gone is the ever-entertaining-unless-he’s-on-the-mound-at-that-moment Pedro Martinez. His spot will most likely be taken by Freddy Garcia, who signed an incentive-laden deal that could be worth as much as $8MM. Although just giving the keys to Jonathon Niese may have been the more cost-effective move with the same payoff, Garcia should be fine as a back of the rotation pitcher.
But the team also re-signed lefty Oliver Perez to a three-year $36MM that I knew was coming the moment Derek Lowe signed with Atlanta. Once the Braves ponied up, the Mets lost a ton of leverage in their negotiations with 
Scott Boras. Oliver Perez is a league average pitcher. And apparently, this still costs you $36MM. I kind of want to weep.
For all the Mets’ moves, the fans are fixated on the player the team didn’t sign — Manny Ramirez. The team currently plans on sending out a platoon of lefty Daniel Murphy and righty Fernando Tatis into leftfield and to say that neither is of the caliber of Ramirez is quite the understatement. However, if the Mets were to get involved in the Manny hunt, the organization would dramatically increase Boras’ leverage once again. Ramirez has already turned down $25MM/1 and $45MM/2 offers – and that’s with only one team (Dodgers) actually bidding.
The true motivation behind the Mets’ refusal to become involved in the Ramirez sweepstakes is unclear. Are they wary of signing a 36-year old to a three-year deal worth what could be $75MM? Did they determine that his bat isn’t worth his antics? Or did the Madoff ponzi scheme (Mets co-owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz reportedly lost hundreds of millions) drastically change any plans Omar Minaya had drawn up?
The only excuse that won’t sit well with me is #2. Clearly, Manny did not prevent the Red Sox from winning two championships. Joe Posnanski thinks he’s a winner. And that’s good enough for me. While his defense in left may be comedic, how much worse is he than Tatis or Murphy – neither of whom were outfielders before 2008?
OFFSEASON TRANSACTIONS:
Added: Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Freddy Garcia, Sean Green, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding, Cory Sullivan, Rob Mackowiak, Bobby Kielty, Valerio de los Santos, Alex Cora, Jeremy Reed, Casey Fossum, Connor Robertson, Rocky Cherry, Darren O’Day
Lost: Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Endy Chavez, Joe Smith, Luis Ayala, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Ambiorix Burgos, Damion Easley, Orlando Hernandez, Ricardo Rincon, Matt Wise
PROJECTED LINEUP:
C: Brian Schneider
1B: Carlos Delgado
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Ryan Church
PITCHING:
SP1: Johan Santana
SP2: Mike Pelfrey
SP3: John Maine
SP4: Oliver Perez
SP5: Freddy Garcia/Jon Niese/Livan Hernandez/Tim Redding
CL: Francisco Rodriguez
GRADE: C-
I suppose it’s to Omar Minaya’s credit that he didn’t push the panic button after two consecutive late-season failures. Then again, the Mets didn’t have many tradable assets. The only area of the team that received much attention was the bullpen, which is, on paper, improved quite a bit. However, the Mets cannot count on Murphy and Tatis to perform as well as 
they did last season. And the clock is ticking on Carlos Beltran, who is no longer young. Plus Delgado, Schneider and Castillo are past their primes and in decline. If logic holds, the Mets will not score as many runs this year as they did in 2008.
So the question becomes: can they prevent more from scoring? Johan Santana is still among the elite. While he had a very strong 2008, Mike Pelfrey needs to prove that it was no fluke. John Maine is coming back from shoulder surgery and Oliver Perez will continue to give fans occassional major headaches. So the key once again may be in the hands of the bullpen. Anddue to the nature of relievers – having so few innings to perform at a high level – that is always going to be a crapshoot.
- Hot Offseason Action Index -
February 17th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Interesting point about “Logic” dictating that the production for Delgado, Schneider and Castillo getting worse due to being past their prime. I need to point out that logic also dictates that Reyes, Wright , Church and Murphy will all get better because Reyes, Wright and Murphy are approaching their prime and Church is in his prime. Using your definition of logic you need to complete the argument and not cut it off because you don’t think Omar did enough to improve the team.
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February 17th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Looks like it to me.
At least it does on paper. Looks like they fixed the needed pieces of what went wrong last year will not happen this year.
This year the starting staff and the pen is going in stronger then last year. Pelf is now considered to be a good starter, Main is now healthy, and there sure is a strong chance that from the group of a 1/2 dozen pitchers one of them will be good enough for the 5 spot.
Plus look how much the offense can still be better then last year. Instead of the weak clutch hitting the offense was good enough, and this year it should be even better.
Delgado is now completely over his injuries and can do it all year long.
And the same can be said for Beltran, cause he did improve over his game as the season went on last year. And now he is able to go all out.
And Reyes and Wright are now in a position to reach their potential. And I feel that their potential still has some way to go.
Plus if Church is over his concussion, as he said so, then he will be much better then he was playing after he got hurt.
Plus Castillo has worked hard to get into shape this year. So why can’t he be closer to his stats this year.
Perhaps not all of this will happen, but I feel enough of it will.
And that is the way I feel. This team does have the stuff to go all the way.
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February 18th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Pedro, I’m not sure it works that way. It’s much easier to get worse than to get better.
In the case of Wright, he’s already among the best players in the league. I don’t think it’s fair to expect that much more from him. His numbers have been stable for four years now (in a good way) and you need to consider the possibility that he’s already reached his high ceiling. Murphy’s talent level just isn’t as good as his numbers showed last season. I’m betting that you’ll hear the words “sophomore slump” associated with him. He doesn’t have enough power to justify how often he strikes out. When he does make contact, it’s solid and produces line drives. So I do like the guy as he’s also a patient hitter. Even so, his numbers say that he was quite lucky as a lot of balls fell in for hits than it should have. Church isn’t young anymore so he doesn’t even belong in that group.
Out of the four of those guys, Reyes is the most likely to show some improvement as there’s still more room to grow. I think there’s more potential for power there.
And Fred, I hope you’re right. I picked the Mets to win in ‘07 and ‘08 and I may still do the same this year. But I’d advise that you don’t pay attention to the “he’s in shape” or “he’s healthy” talk. Every team says these things in the spring. It’s not something unique to the Mets. And most of the time, it leads to nothing.
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February 18th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
“But I’d advise that you don’t pay attention to the “he’s in shape” or “he’s healthy” talk. Every team says these things in the spring.”
Every year, every player shows up to camp in “the best shape of his career.” Except for the one or two guys who show up fat.
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February 20th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Paul,
I agree with the gist of your post. One point I would make, however, is that the overall production from the corner outfield was quite poor in 2008:
LF: 10 HR, 68 RBI, .273/.334/.396
RF: 17 HR, 80 RBI, .283/.347/.423
It’s true that Tatis & Murphy played above their heads in 2008, but this was more that balanced out by all the playing time given to the likes of Endy Chavez (a great fielder but terrible hitter), Angel Pagan, Marlon Anderson, & Trot Nixon after Church & Alou went down to injuries. So I do think even if Muprhy & Tatis come down to earth in 2009, the Mets should be better off at corner OF than they were in 2008 just by not having to give so many at-bats to scrubs.
Castillo can’t be much worse than he was last year. Whether he can bounce back depends on whether his knees can bounce back from surgery, which is a big if.
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February 20th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Why must met fans always complain about the same thing. This team has been in contention for 3 of Minaya’s 4 years. Do you remember all the years prior to these. Outside 1999 and 2000 the team was terrible for almost 15 years.
Onto this years team. Your beginning 3 paragraph’s were right on. But i think last season’s bullpen was so flawed because it had to many specialists. Smith, Feliciano, Schow coudn’t get anyone out from their opposite sides. Not even close. that’s almost half of your bullpen. Sanchez wore out after not pitching for a year and a half because of injuries. Heilman wore out his welcome with the fans and outside one solid month he was awful. Wagner got injured and there was no closer heading into this season, and nobody on the roster that could have closed last year.
Now onto the offseason. The Bullpen was completely revamped. And baring injuries it’s 100 times better then alst seasons. Putz is a top closer, and he will be setting up. This pushes the rest of the group into 7th inning duties and on the ocassional 6th inning when the SP only goes 5. This means you can play the lefty righty matchups on most days if you would like with Feliciano or green. Or you can throw out cross over guys like Sanchez or Redding.
Onto the Starting Pitching. How can you say Ollie is league Average. This is a Pitcher who the last 2 seasons in NY has been 25-17 in his last 2 seasons in NY. Is a 27 year old lefty, and was arguably the 3rd best pitcher on the market when you take injury concern into the discussion. Also look back at the history of 36 year old’s signing 4 year contracts and lets see what you think 3 years from now with Ollie and Lowe. Actually i argued on other sites, mainly the MetsBlog that outside CC i just want ollie back. Out is Pedro in the 5th spot, in is Neise, Garcia, Redding, Livan. All to man the #5 starter. Any one of these guys is as good as the PEDRO that is around now, and is 100 times better then Knight, Armas, Figerorea and the rest of the guys who made starts last year. I love how met fans say Pelfrey has to prove last year wasn’t a Fluke. Hello he’s 24 and finally showed why he was considered a top prospect and a #1 pick out of college. How do you think he won’t be better? Maine has injury issues, but before his injury was made public he was pitching very well. And Ollie should have won about 3-5 more games. Be happy he only got 12 million.
THe offense will be fine. Even if you have a step back by Delgado, a healthy Castillo will be better then argenis reyes, and Ramon Martinez, so will Alex Cora. Schneider can’t be worse then he was, even if he is the same he was exactly league average for a catcher offensively. a Murphy/Tatis Platoon will put up about a .280 20 HR 80 RBI total. It’s not bad for a corner Platoon.
When will met fans stop thinking their team stinks. Everything went wrong the last 2 years and the one thing they never had was Depth. This is the first team where DEPTH is actually not a concern. They have signed 3 good options for SP depth. They signed 15 guys with MLB experience for RP depth. They have signed MI’s and OFers for depth there, and don’t look like they will need it unless Church goes head first into the wall a bunch of times.
I actually like this team. I know Castillo isnt’ ideal, and i wanted Delgado traded. But i’m excited to watch this team which has been close for 3 years, and that happens to all teams. The Manny Lead Red Sox had 3-4 years of failures before they came back from a 0-3 hole to the Evil Empire to win their first championship.
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February 20th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Mark, I didn’t say once that the team stunk. So if you have any inferiority complexes, looks like you’ve let it all out.
There’s just no statistical indication over the history of the game that bullpens consistently account for a huge portion of a team’s success/failure. Yes, the bullpen is much improved. How many wins that will translate to is a totally different thing. I feel like fans think of bullpens as too big a piece of the pie. It’s a sizable piece, but it’s not nearly as important as offense and starting pitching.
No matter how “healthy” the reports say Castillo is, middle infielders who have to rely on speed to remain productive can’t have knee issues at his age without major repercussions. Sure, his knees are fine now. But it’s the start of spring training. By the time May rolls around, we’ll see how the guy feels/is producing.
And how can you say that Ollie isn’t league average when his ERA last year was 4.22 while the league average ERA was 4.21? And that’s with the huge advantage of pitching in Shea Stadium and having one of the better defenses in the league behind him. He’s the definition of league average. And if it’s true that he’s still young (which he kind of is) and thus bound to improve, shouldn’t we be seeing that improvement by now? Now all players improve. Some actually regress or stay the same. There is a strong possibility that Ollie won’t get any better.
Regarding Pelfrey, again, you’re assuming that a) ALL young players improve (which is untrue) and b) his performance last year was his true skill level (still up for debate). If he can keep it up for another two seasons, then yes, he’s established. But history’s full of former top prospects who had one good season then fell off a cliff.
And Wins for a starting pitcher is probably the worst way to evaluate anyone. It’s a meaningless stat that people keep bringing up out of bad habits. Doesn’t tell you much from one season to another.
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February 20th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
wow…a c-? i’d hate to see what you give the pirates.
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February 20th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Chesbomb, it’s important to note that we’re not grading the teams on how good they are, but on what they’ve done to get better during the offseason. Paul thinks the Mets did a slightly below average job of improving the team, because most of their moves were bullpen related and, as he says in his post, bullpens are always a crapshoot.
FWIW, the Pirates also got a C-.
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February 20th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
“There’s just no statistical indication over the history of the game that bullpens consistently account for a huge portion of a team’s success/failure.”
Tell that to the 2008 Phillies.
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February 20th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
You gotta love the fact that it is a walk year for Delgado. The one thing that may hold Carlos back is the amount of real estate if Citi’s RF, considerably more than at Shea.
I’ve heard Carlos is in tremendous shape and predict these numbers.
.286, .370, .588, .970, 42-HR’s, 132 RBI’s. NL MVP.
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February 20th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Lynkx, the key word there is “consistently”. We need more than one season here.
megamets, I have no idea if you’re serious. If you are, may gos have mercy on your soul.
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February 20th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
How can you give them a c- they addressed pretty much all their needs. I think the only reason they are doing the platoon in left is because they might make a run at mat holiday next off season and move murphy to first if he has a good season. Also if church is struggling or hurt and fernando martinez is healthy and doing well in the minors he may be called up mid season and who knows maybe he could make a real impact. But a c- is ridiculous they deserve at least a B. Also your argument tat the bullpen accounts for very little is completely wrong i was at most of the games last year. to prove it if games ended after 6 innings last year the mets would’ve had the best record in the league. What does it take to deserve an A in your grading?
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February 20th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Jason, what exactly were “their needs” in your opinion? Unless it was “bring bigger names into the bullpen then sit back and enjoy”, then they didn’t meet all their needs.
While Carlos Delgado isn’t as bad a hitter as he was in the first half, he’s not as good as he was in the second half either. Luis Castillo has negative power and hurts you on defense. Brian Schneider’s defensive reputation is better than actual talent. The rotation didn’t get better – it’s just one name that’s different (whomever takes #5 spot).
And I don’t understand how attending games makes you a better expert on how the bullpen imploded. I mean, you can look at the box score to see that. I went to 15 games last year and enjoyed myself immensely. But I still would have known how poorly the bullpen performed had I gone to zero.
And I’ve heard the idea of moving Murphy to first. And I hate it. If he were good enough to handle it, Murphy’s offensive skills belong at second base. As a first baseman, his offense would be among the worst.
For the last freaking time, the bullpen implosion of 2008 was an ANOMALY. It happened. But it was the most unlikely of occurrences. The same guys could be back there in 2009 and they were bound to have a better go of it.
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February 20th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
#3. wright will continue to get better, if for only one reason. MLb players at around age 27 get what is called “old man strength.” its also the beginning of their “peak” periods. basically, this means an untick in their power stats. the last two seasons, wrights had two notable periods of weak production aka cold bats. these were basically month long periods. if he can gain consistency and avoid these prolonged slumps, he’ll emerge as basically the best hitter in the league and factor in the uptick in power and he could really distinguish himself. its also notable that he struggled quite a bit in clutch situations this past season, missing many RBI opportunities, so thats another area he could improve. there are reasons he could go the other way (health), but there are plenty of reasons to believe he’ll improve.
as for this article, Oliver Perez is not a league average pitcher. last year, his stats were league average and the year before that they were slightly better, but still league average.
ollie on the other hand is not league average. he’s displayed time and time again tremedous talent, with the ability to dominate the games best hitters (ask albert pujols and ryan howard). he’s also extremely valuable to mets, because they play lefty heavy lineups coming out of philly and florida.
and guess what, he’s entering his prime.
14. maybe it was an anomaly, but the fact of the matter is, who would you rather have in a pressure situation. heilman or putz? wagner or krod? maybe last years bullpen would of done better this year, but it doesn’t have nearly the same upside as this years bullpen.
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February 20th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
as for Manny, he wouldn’t mess with the team first policy jerry is implementing this spring.
say what you will about manny, some of his antics are fun, he’s the clown in the clubhouse, but assaulting an employee isn’t something to be taken lightly, especially over a ticket issue.
you can say manny’s a winner, but would he really have been there if not for ortiz or beckett or schilling? boston really hasn’t seemed too broken up over it and quite frankly, they should of been in the world series last year if not for becketts injuries.
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February 20th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Ok but theres a difference between simply looking at the box score and watching it unfold with your own eyes. Also Castillo does not hurt the mets on defense. He’s plays average defense at second base but it’s not a liability. I agree with you that schneiders defense is overrated but its not terrible it’s slightly above average. The relievers last year were absolutely terrible excluding wagner and joe smith who both did decent jobs. In my opinion the bullpen was their biggest need and even though i hate omar and thought he should’ve been fired last year he did address the need in a big way. The rotation has improved with the departure of pedro i think out of livan hernandez, Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, and Joe Niese one of them will be able to do better then 5-6 with a 5.61 era.
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February 20th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
For 2009, I’ll take a healthy Billy Wagner over K-Rod. Not by much, but I still would. K-Rod’s velocity and control has been down over the last two years. And before anyone starts talking about the saves record, consider that he broke Bobby Thigpen’s record – a guy who aside from that one lucky year had an unremarkable career. Saves don’t tell you nearly enough about a pitcher’s abilities.
And I think that Putz is a better pitcher than K-Rod is so of course I’ll take JJ over Heilman. But how many more wins that will translate to is another story. Heilman’s a much better pitcher than he showed over the last year. And I don’t think (nor do the stats show) that one guy who pitches 70 innings in one year has THAT big an impact.
And your point about whether or not Boston would have won without Ortiz, Schilling and Beckett is a false question. I don’t care how good one player is – if you don’t surround him with other good players, he’s not going to win. It’s not something that applies to just Manny. Think broader.
Finally, regarding Wright, I didn’t say that he won’t improve. I said that it’s not fair to expect him to because he’s already among the best. And I know that people think all players peak at 27-29, but it’s not necessarily true. There are tons of players who peaked much earlier and much later. It’s not absolute.
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February 20th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Our bullpens was horrible last year.period.We blew about 25-30 saves last year.we were among the worst teams in baseball at holding leads last year(and the last two months of ‘07).How many games did we blow when leading after the 7th or 8th innings? It had to be in the 8-10 range.How can anybody say that all the guys we brought in aren’t an improvement?
All of that, and considering the Phillies had one of the best bullpens in the league last year tells me that bullpens are pretty important.Now I’m not gonna say we’re gonna win the division or anything like that but it might be enough to make up the 3 games we trailed the Philies at seasons end.
I think the real issue is the “choking” label this team has garnered. The phillies are without a doubt a stronger team mentally (or maybe they just had a better bullpen the last 2 years).We were just fine in ‘06 with a solid pen.
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February 20th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Last year it was the bullpen, this year it will be the rotation.
Yes Santana is amazing, but Pelfry blew by his inning limit, Maine had shoulder surgery, well know about Perez, and who knows for the 5th starter.
Plus KRod was vulnerable, still had what 8 blown saves last year? with a declinig Krate and only an 1 inning guy.
Plus Tatis isnt going to be as good, is Church’s head ok yet? Delgado repeat? Castillo? 27hrs from beltran?
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February 20th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
a C- Really? Lets see the 2cnd worst bullpen in baseball would automagically be much better this year with the same guys. I am not following that logic at all especially if they were at least league average they would have won the division easily.
The number 1 need on this team was a bullpen upgrade. I would say Omar has done a great job upgrading that by acquiring the 2 finest relievers available.I agree that he has also added an impressive bit of depth to the roster as well. I would give him an A- at worst.Also in a very tough division I think that the Mets have the most improved team.
I would love to see Manny in a Met uniform he is clutch and I think they would be the favorites in the division instantly. That is if you get the happy Manny who does not feel insulted by his low offers.
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February 20th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
I’ve been a Mets for 25 years, but unless you tell me that picture of Jose Reyes is photoshopped, I’m becoming a Yankees fan.
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February 21st, 2009 at 11:03 am
Paul, you said “I don’t think (nor do the stats show) that one guy who pitches 70 innings in one year has THAT big an impact”. Let me point out that too many times Heilman and the other culprits in the Mets pen came into games in critical situations and didn’t register an out – therefore getting NO credit for even a portion of an inning pitched.
I also think you have to look at more than the stats. I have vivid memories of more than one Santana gem being turned into a no-decision. Those bullpen implosions were devastating to morale. Amazingly Santana always seemed to shrug them off, but it wasn’t easy for the hitters to come back time after time to try to stage a rally in the late innings.
Baseball is a team sport and when one component is consistently bad as was the bullpen, it puts added pressure on others.
Stats may show bullpens in general don’t have that big an impact but you can’t win a championship with a mediocre (at best) pen. There is no way that pen would do better in 2009, especially without a Wagner in it. That makeover was essential.
Considering the Mets were in the hunt til the last day of the season tells me the rest of the team was pretty solid, so it makes sense to leave them intact.
Time to reconfigure your offseason grade. The Mets got Putz and K-Rod for a song and a bag of spare parts they didn’t need. They got a younger backup infielder, Alex Cora. They did no worse than break even at replacing Pedro, and possibly improve there too. That’s not a C-; give Omar a solid B.
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February 22nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
wilpon et al didnt personally lose millions in the madoff scandal. that wasnt reported anywhere. the investment firm wilpon controls had hundreds of millions invested with madoff, but it unknown how much that investment company lost, if they actually lost any at all.
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February 23rd, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Ken, it’s both. Sterling Equities took a huge hit (exact amount unknown). The Wilpon family had dozens of accounts with Madoff through their investments at Sterling. The list of victims is now public and Wilpon family name is everywhere, including Fred by name.
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February 23rd, 2009 at 1:12 pm
And to those of you saying that the Mets deserved a “B”, I’m not going to argue with you since that’s just your opinion. But why are causing such an uproar over the difference between a “c-” and a “b”? Is it really that huge?
I still expect the Mets to win. If the unthinkable didn’t keep happening, they would’ve won in 07 and 08 too. The Mets could have stayed put and I still would’ve picked them to win. They just didn’t have a great off season in my book. It was OK. They didn’t make any huge mistakes that I can think of.
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February 23rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
When I was in school, a “C” grade was pretty mediocre. So I took your C- to mean the Mets took a step backward in the offseason. Could be I just don’t understand your rating. But I do disagree with your implication that the Mets would contend if they hadn’t revamped the bullpen. And from a business point of view, you’d have a tough time getting fans to pay top dollar to watch the bullpen give away games like they did last year.
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February 23rd, 2009 at 10:06 pm
C is average. So C- is slightly below average.
Grade inflation = lame.
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February 24th, 2009 at 12:32 am
yeah the holding company and their names show up on lists but no one knows if they lost any money. pyramid schemes make money for the people that get their money out first. however if that is the case it gets tricky because of they knew that madoff was phoney and still took their money out then it is illegal.
im not saying i know they did or that that didnt necessarily lose butt loads of cash, im just saying no one does. also its silly to point out the wilpon’s connection to madoff when they could have just as easily lost more money in other legitimate ventures.
i know its a petty quibble but if the wilpon’s non-mets related budgets are relevant than its worth bringing up.
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February 24th, 2009 at 1:09 am
Paul
You say “I have no idea if you’re serious. If you are, may god have mercy on your soul” as if I’m coming straight out of left field, as if I am a raving lunatic. So once again let me break it down for you.
I guess this will require a thinking cap.
Would you say “I have no idea if you’re serious. If you are, may god have mercy on your soul” if I told you Manny Rameriz would put up the numbers I predicted for Carlos (.286, .370, .588, .970, 42-HR’s, 132 RBI’s)…..NO
Since 2000 Carlos Delgado’s averaged 36-HR and 114-RBI and Manny’s averaged 38-HR and 116-RBI. Considering it’s a CONTRACT YEAR for Carlos adding on roughly 10% isn’t exactly lunacy as you make it out to be. Yes it’s in all likely hood the ceiling, but it’s far from beyond the realm of possibility.
As far as your comment about Delgado being past his prime. You obviously didn’t watch the Mets play last year. Carlos Delgado finished top 10 in the NL-MVP with 96 points, just 44 shy of third place. His numbers were phenomenal(38-HR’S, 115-RBI’S) despite entering 2008 with a recently healed broken wrist.
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February 24th, 2009 at 10:43 am
I actually watched the Mets a lot. I am a New Yorker and I’ve been an avid fan since the championship year of ‘86 (I was six). I had the Saturday ticket plan and watched the games from home whenever I could.
Here’s the problem – you’re using evaluation methods that mean very little. I think that the MVP voting system is totally flawed. In my mind, Wright, Beltran and Reyes (and possibly Santana) were all more “valuable” to the Mets than Delgado was. And if you’re going to talk about how good Delgado was in 2008, you can’t possibly ignore how awful he was in April, May and June. His performance during those three months – half the season – was a total detriment to the team.
And I assume that very few Met fans would equate Manny Ramirez’ offense to Carlos Delgado’s. But if you want to go there, you have very little backing you up. Ask every scout/front office exec/pretty much anyone and I’d be surprised if one person would say that Manny isn’t a superior hitter.
And Delgado is on the decline. He was pretty bad in 2007 too in addition to the first half of 2008. In those two years, he had three months (the second half of 2008) where he was helping the team. Whereas between April 07 – June 08 the guy hit .248/.324/.438 which are bad numbers for a first baseman with no defense.
I was ecstatic with how well he hit from July-Sept last year. But I also know that his performance during that span is not repeatable. Now I don’t think he’s as bad as he was during April 07- June 08, but he’s also not as good as he was in the second half of 08 either. His true skill level is somewhere in between.
Regarding “contract year”, if you can prove to me that a 10% improvement is the norm, I’m all ears. I know that a lot of people expect big years when their contract is up, but personally, I think it’s a myth. If they had the skill to perform at such a high level, they’d be doing it from the get go. Or else it means that they were dogging it during those other years.
And for a 35 year-old hitter like Delgado, averaging out his prime years is a bad way to evaluate future performance.
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February 25th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Paul
Reply to “I think that the MVP voting system is totally flawed. In my mind, Wright, Beltran and Reyes (and possibly Santana) were all more “valuable” to the Mets than Delgado was”….The Hall of Fame voting is even more flawed than the MVP voting system where Delgado finished 9th, but in my mind he was a sure-fire top 3 guy. That is unless you don’t put a lot of stock in his clutch hits. Then Reyes(24th) and Wright(7th) would fairly catapult over Delgado. Delgado was the guy pitchers feared during the stretch drive. 38-HR’s, 115-RBI, and extremely clutch, were Carlos’ crudentials. Carlos was clearly the Mets most valuable player. The writers left out the clutch-factor when evaluating both Carlos and A-Rod who finished 7th in the AL. What a joke. He shouldn’t have even finished top 100. It appears that the writers obviously put a lot of stock in meaningless tack on 3 run shots, of mop up relievers. The value of A-Fraud’s HR’s in 2008 didn’t matter just the fact that he compiled them was enough. So I basically agree that the system is flawed, but if the writers more accurately evaluated the value of the most worthy candidates, Delgado would’ve have finished much higher.
Reply to “And if you’re going to talk about how good Delgado was in 2008, you can’t possibly ignore how awful he was in April, May and June” While projecting his 2009 numbers, yes I can, if not I would be putting more stock in a blip on the radar than an entire a body of work. Which is what you are doing. Reference: The back of Carlos’ baseball card.
Reply to “And I assume that very few Met fans would equate Manny Ramirez’ offense to Carlos Delgado’s. But if you want to go there, you have very little backing you up.” Now your pissing in the wind. I gave you a 9 year window for both players, which by the way are virtually identical. If that’s “VERY LITTLE BACKING ME UP” then (in your words) “I have no idea if you’re serious. If you are, may god have mercy on your soul” Also, Carlos played in more pitcher friendly ballparks from 2000-20, which is worth noting.
Reply to “And Delgado is on the decline. He was pretty bad in 2007 too in addition to the first half of 2008″….Carlos didn’t exactly beat the doors down in 07, an injury plagued season, but if you were to average his numbers out over 162 games they would be 28 and 101. Considering the injuries, which I do when I make evaluations and predictions, 28/101 is more than respectable. In my original post I mentioned “I’ve heard Carlos is in tremendous shape and predict these numbers” as a reference to why I predicted what I did. Is this something that if were true, you wouldn’t consider when projecting his upcoming numbers? Do you put any stock in injuries being a factor for his numbers being down in 07?
Reply to “regarding “contract year”, if you can prove to me that a 10% improvement is the norm, I’m all ears…I think it’s a myth” what I said “Considering it’s a CONTRACT YEAR for Carlos adding on roughly 10% isn’t exactly lunacy” a little different than “10% is the norm”, but if you state that think it’s a myth that players tend to step-it-up a notch or two in their contract years then your simply grasping at straws.
Reply to “And for a 35 year-old hitter like Delgado, averaging out his prime years is a bad way to evaluate future performance.” Your argument would be easily validated if Delgado’s 2008 numbers were worse than an average of his numbers throughout this decade, but his 2008 numbers are better. What numbers would you reference in projecting Carlos’ 2008 numbers? Hopefully not a 3 month clip over a 15 year career, and hopefully not an injury riddled 2007 season in which his numbers still managed to remain respectable.
Right now I prefer sticking to the Delagdo debate and do not wish to delve into the insanity of your idea that the bullpen would’ve been fine this year. But, FTR what were you watching last year?
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February 25th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Typos.. The 3rd to the last paragraph should read.
Reply to “regarding “contract year”, if you can prove to me that a 10% improvement is the norm, I’m all ears…I think it’s a myth” what I said “Considering it’s a CONTRACT YEAR for Carlos adding on roughly 10% isn’t exactly lunacy” a little different than “10% is the norm”, but if you state that “it’s a myth” that players tend to step-it-up a notch or two in their contract years then your simply grasping at straws.
Typos.. The last sentence in the 2nd to the last paragraph should read
What numbers would you reference in projecting Carlos’ 2009 numbers? Hopefully not a 3 month clip over a 15 year career, and hopefully not an injury riddled 2007 season in which his numbers still managed to remain respectable.
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February 26th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Don’t worry about the typos, man. I’m sure some of my comments are riddled with them.
Anyhow, good lord. It took me ten minutes to read and comprehend all this you’re throwing my way.
Look, you’re not speaking my language. You put far more stock in RBIs than I do. Again, RBIs don’t tell you much of anything. It has WAY more to do with where you’re batting in the order and who’s hitting ahead of you than your own personal skill. When you have Reyes, Wright and Beltran hitting ahead of you, you get RBI chances up the wazoo thanks to their abilities to get on base. If you didn’t get 100 RBIs with so many chances, then you’re just a bad hitter. It doesn’t make Delgado look any better in my eyes.
You still can’t prove to me that the 10% bump in a contract year performance is truth. Mark Teixeria had a .963 OPS in 2007. In his contract year of ‘08, he had a .962. No bump. Sabathia had a 3.21 ERA in 2007. Before being traded to the inferior NL Central, Sabathia’s ERA with Cleveland was 3.83 in 18 starts. Orlando Hudson – .817 OPS in ‘07, .817 in ‘08. Pat Burrell – .902 in ‘07, .874 in ‘08. Oliver Perez – 3.56 ERA in ‘07, 4.22 in ‘08. Adam Dunn – .901 OPS in ‘07, .899 in ‘08. Some guys do better in contract years, some guys don’t, and the others play exactly the same. But the same can be said of any year, regardless of contract status. Again, if these guys perform at such a high level only in contract years, then that means that they’re punking out in non-contract years by not even trying. I’m not grasping at straws here and I’m not just making things up.
And no. I put zero stock in what beat writers tell me in regards to how great of a shape player X is in on the first day of camp. Nor should you. Take a look at this list: http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/01/spring-traini-1.html
This is the list from last year’s “great shape/new workout routine” garbage from last year’s spring. Again, like any other year, some of these guys did better, some did worse, others played exactly the same. This isn’t to say that gaining 100lbs is inconsequential. But “in great shape” doesn’t necessarily lead to good things.
What’s far more predictive is age, player type, and past performances of both the player (in this case, Delgado) and the other players in MLB history who fit his age, type, and career trend. People far smarter than me have created systems that are, way more often than not, far more accurate than what you or I can do off the top of our heads. And pretty much all of them think that Delgado’s going to have an average season for a first baseman. Which isn’t bad at all and I’d be happy with it. But if you’re predicting an MVP type season, you’re probably going to be disappointed. I just think you should be tempering your expectations.
And you’re looking at the wrong data for Manny and Delgado. Manny’s held up his level of production far longer than he should. Because he’s a freak. Delgado’s career trend has been much more predictable. From 98-05, (Delgado’s prime years) comparing them isn’t so crazy (Manny was still better, but again, not crazy to compare). But since then, Delgado’s OBP has been .361, .333, .353. Manny’s has been .439, .388, .430. There’s no comparison whatsoever. Manny Ramirez is a much better hitter right now. Again, temper your expectations for Delgado.
I have a feeling that what I say above is totally moot for you. You seem to think that HR and RBIs are all that matter for a guy like Delgado. I think that OBP and SLG are leaps and bounds more descriptive of a player’s abilities.
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May 20th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Right now I think the Mets deserve a B with the way they r playing.
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