Since When Are the Red Sox Speed-Happy?
For some reason, Kevin Millar appears totally unconcerned at the prospect that Mike Lowell might try to steal second.
When Jacoby Ellsbury got called up in September of 2007, the Red Sox added his speed to a club that already boasted the not-to-shabby wheels of Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo. For a while, it seemed like the Red Sox could legitimately run, possibly for the first time in the memory of any living Sox fan. While they didn’t rack up many total steals, comparatively, it seemed like they were doing the smart thing and focusing on situational stealing — in both 07 and 08, they ranked in the top 5 teams in stolen base percentage.
But so far this season, there’s been blood on the basepaths. Boston ranks 18th in the majors in SB%. Dustin Pedroia, who doesn’t have great speed but who has typically been a very savvy base-stealer, has been caught 4 times and called safe just 10. Nick Green and J.D. Drew have been safe just once apiece, but caught thrice and twice, respectively. And David Ortiz, inexplicably, has been caught twice. I call this inexplicable not because he was caught, but because he was running at all in the first place.
Tonight we witnessed another prime example: Mike Lowell draws a walk off of A.J. Burnett in the bottom of the third, with the Red Sox ahead 4-0. With one out and Lowell on first, Varitek comes to the plate. On a 2-1 count, Lowell takes off for second base. Varitek stands at the plate looking dumbfounded. When Posada recovers from his initial shock, he fires the ball to second and the lead-footed Lowell is out by a country mile.
How did this happen? Does a seasoned veteran like Mike Lowell — who no doubt has a good idea of exactly how slow he is — just take off on his own? If not, what sort of manager decides to send him? Announcers Don Orsillo and Dennis Eckersley (who, by the way, will make a thrilling and hilarious replacement for Joe Morgan one day, please God) can only speculate that Jason Varitek missed the hit-and-run sign. Sure enough, when Tek eventually makes his way back to the dugout (after drawing a walk and ultimately scoring), the first word out of his mouth is, “Sorry.”
But is it really the Captain’s fault that he missed that sign? If I were in his shoes, I’d be standing there thinking, “Did they just put a hit-and-run on with Lowell on first? Nah. No way. My eyes must have tricked me.” And I’d make a mental note to borrow Big Papi’s eye drops when I got back to the dugout.
How slow is Mike Lowell? He has the worst EQBRR on the team, ringing in at -1.77. Don’t worry though — that’s probably a fluke. Flukily good, that is. Because last year he was an abysmal -5.75. And before you argue that that was just his gimp-tastic hip talking, the year before, the season he was voted World Series MVP, he rated a horrifying -6.21.
If you’re Terry Francona, why take a chance that the salt-and-pepper haired, 35-year old Lowell hurts himself sliding headfirst into a base because you decided it would be “nifty” to try a doomed-to-fail “run-manufacturing” play? Are you feeling invincible now that the mighty Mark Kotsay has returned from the DL? Did David Ortiz’s third home run of the season leave you feeling light-headed and omnipotent?
So far this season, the Red Sox have had mediocre starting pitching and bad defense. The one thing they have going for them is offense — even with their designated hitter flirting with the Mendoza line, Boston has still posted an .804 team OPS, good for a close fourth in the majors. Terry Francona gets crap from the fans for “just waiting for that three-run homer” but when you have the lineup Boston does, it’s not a bad strategy.
It’s certainly better than telling Ortiz and Lowell to steal.
June 10th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Conventional wisdom (yeah, I said it) is to use the hit and run with the players not expected to steal a base or don’t hit for high average.
The defense plays differently, and the pitch selection is different.
If the batter makes contact, it’s designed to prevent the double play. Also, the 2B/SS are playing farther from the bag, the 1B isn’t holding the runner, or cheating off the bad (opening the line) and the batters will probably receive better pitchers to hit.
Who throws their best pitch to a guy hitting .220?
It’s common, and it should work. What needs to happen more than anything is for a guy who is supposed to be know for his baseball savvy to know the signs, receive the sign, and execute the play. Not screww it up becausse he was surprised.
It reminds me of the time Billy Martin gave Reggie Jackson the bunt sign. Jackson, who knew the signs, stood at the plate, turned around to Martin in the dugout, and asked, “You really want me to bunt?”.
The Red Sox catcher at the time, Carlton Fisk, was able to pick up this excahange, mostly because he was standing next to Reggie at the time. Martin, who was then a little miffed, kept the bunt sign on. Fisk called for two pitches outside. Jackson reached across the plate with the bat both times, but made no attempt to actually make contact and struck out.
There is a difference between having baseball knowledge and having the reputation for baseball knowledge. I think Varitek just proved which side of the line he’s on.
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June 10th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Ron, there’s conventional wisdom and then there’s conventional dumbdom.
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June 11th, 2009 at 2:51 am
whoa whoa whoa, Sarah. normally I agree with you, but I gotta take issue with your claim that this team has “mediocre pitching and bad defense”. that’s a little harsh. 4 out of 5 (everyone but Dice-K) of sox starters are either sailing or have turned things around. Wakefield’s been solid since the start. Penny’s been decent his last few starts. and Lester and Beckett have turned things around drastically and flirted with no-no’s in their last starts. plus they have the best bullpen in the league. the “bad defense” is attributable to Mikey’s lack of range at the moment, plus the elephant in the infield, the perennial hole at shortstop, but shortstop aside you have two gold glovers at 1st and 2nd, plus Jacoby Hot Feet at center has been making the webgem reel all season. they just need to get a shortstop who can actually turn DPs and they should be solid all around.
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June 11th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Okay, in my defense I did say “mediocre *starting* pitching” because yes, I agree that the bullpen has been great. And I agree that the starters are (now) turning the ship around. But going by the first couple months of the season, Sox starters have been right in the middle of the pack. We should feel blessed to be in first place (knock on wood!) with the kind of effort we’ve seen from our starters for the bulk of this year, at least up until the last week or two.
But the defense has just been BAD. I’m not going to re-look it up (because I’m lazy) but it’s something like 26th or 27th in team defensive efficiency. I agree with your diagnosis that Lowell and the SS position are largely to blame, but they seem to be dragging the whole team down. If they want to win in the playoffs, the Sox are going to have to become better glovemen.
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June 11th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Yup, Sox are 26th in defensive efficiency, 25th in team UZR.
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June 11th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
It’s not just SS and 3B. Bay has been awful and even Ellsbury has been not great.
Only Drew, Pedroia, and Youk have been good on D.
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June 11th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Also: Coco Crisp was really great on defense. One of the best CFs in baseball, by most measures.
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June 11th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
Bay has been awful? Really? Nick, you have to put that in a little more context for Sox fans who are still used to Manny-style defense in left.
And though Coco was superior to Jacoby defensively, I think Jacoby would’ve had A-Rod’s two-RBI hit to center…which Rocco just watched bounce off the wall. Humbug.
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June 11th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
ok, purely anecdotally, Bay just let an easy fly ball bounce off the wall for a hit. Lame.
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June 11th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
omg! I now feel bad about dissing Rocco because he just made an a-MAZ-ing diving grab in the rain.
Yep, I’m really cool with my one-woman open thread here.
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June 11th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
“He humped right there through a good piece of cheese.” That is what Eck just said. I’m pretty sure it was “humped.” Might have been “pumped.” But “humped” sounds funnier.
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June 11th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Great comeback win for the Sox tonight. It makes you wonder how it will effect the Yankees psyche down the road going 0-8 against the Sox so far this year.
On the topic of stolen bases… I am surprised you didnt bring up just how Ortiz was thrown out last time, in the 6th inning of the June 7th game against the Rangers, he just takes off with the pitcher holding the ball, not even starting his move. What makes a guy that big think no one will notice him running to second base?
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June 12th, 2009 at 12:28 am
Nick – how has Ellsbury been “not great” at center? I think he’s up there as one of the better defensive centerfielders in the league. he has great range, he gets to every ball, and he has great judgment – and he knows how to play balls off the wall. so what are you basing your “not great” on?
in comparison – did you SEE Johnny Damon blow that routine fly out tonight? I mean did you SEE it? he might as well have shielded his face and screamed. that was just sad.
Jon – I think once a season, Ortiz has to try and make a pathetic attempt at stealing a base. (I’m pretty sure it’s because he makes a bad bet with Pedroia). I think he thinks that no one expects him to steal, so maybe he’ll get away with it because it’s so unlikely. just once – then he probably won’t try again until next year.
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June 12th, 2009 at 12:44 am
and Nick – for another comparison, Ellsbury’s range factor this season is 2.58 – Crisp’s is 2.60. not a huge difference there.
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June 12th, 2009 at 12:49 am
Sarah – I missed Eck’s cheese humping. if there ever was an award though for most creative uses of “cheese”, he would surely get it.
I noticed that last night he was pretty clearly advocating that sox pitchers plunk yankee batters to “even the score” – I’m wondering how NESN/MLB/Red Sox brass feels about his on-air vocalizing of support for retaliations.
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June 12th, 2009 at 12:50 am
he also kept mentioning Sabathia’s size and even at one point referred to his “buns” – that was an awkward moment.
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June 12th, 2009 at 12:57 am
even though I share in Sarah’s hatred for Lugo, you have to kind of feel bad for the guy right now. unless Green gets hurt, I can’t think of a situation in which they’d actually play him again. he always at least had speed, but now that that’s obviously gone, he’s not fast, he can’t make routine plays, and he also can’t hit. and it’s not like you want him as a defensive replacement in late innings. He can’t run anymore so you can’t use him as a pinch runner. he’s like a crappy 10 year old Chevy with defective brakes sitting in your driveway that you’ve put a lot of work into already, and you’ve just gotten a new car – what do you do with it? do you sell it for parts? or do you lie and try and sell it on craigslist for more than it’s worth?
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June 12th, 2009 at 1:08 am
“Only Drew, Pedroia, and Youk have been good on D”.
Nick: I’ve seen Pedroia make some shit plays this year. he’s not playing GG defense the way he was last year. his fielding % is only .984 this season – 29th for 2nd basemen. and Drew? Bones Made Of Glass (his Indian name), when he’s not taking a break from playing, barely has to move out there. I’ve yet to see him lift his feet or dive for anything. he’s covered by Ellsbury most of the time anyway. (and yes, I realize I just disproved my own previous points that their defense is otherwise good).
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June 12th, 2009 at 2:41 am
Lyndsay: Hatred for Lugo aside, do you really feel that Green is the answer? This “new car” that you seem to like isnt too enjoyable to watch in the field and has already costed the Sox some runs and games.
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June 12th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Lyndsay, 2.6 Ranger Factor/9 for a CFer isn’t good. Plus, defensive stats vary more year to year and is thus thought to require about three years worth of data to judge accurately. Also, Ranger Factor is just one metric to look at. Like on offense, there’s more than one number we should be looking for. For example, UZR has Ellsbury right at the average mark. So Nick’s right. Using RF and UZR, you can see that Ellsbury hasn’t been great. Mind you, he never said he was crap.
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June 12th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Lyndsay, thanks for the comments. Lately I pretty much only evaluate defense based on UZR and plus/minus, which is where I got my evaluation of the Red Sox fielders.
Range factor is way too dependent on variables completely out of a fielder’s control, and fielding percentage doesn’t tell you anything about a player’s range at all.
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June 12th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
1. Paul, I don’t know what Ranger Factor is, but it sounds HOT. Rowrrrr. Sarah like.
2. I like Green’s arm, on defense, but that’s about it – and unfortunately, he doesn’t always seem to be able to control where the arm is aiming. But I’ve definitely seen some plays (last night’s 9th inning spin move, for instance) where a guy with a weaker arm wouldn’t have gotten the out.
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June 12th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
I never said I thought Green was the their guy at short. they obviously need someone who can easily go right and cover Lowell’s inadequacies at 3rd. that hole in the left infield is going to be a huge problem for them. I’m just not sure Lowrie is capable of this either though.
what do you think – Penny for Tulowitski? it does look like Colorado will be having a fire sale very soon…
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June 12th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Sarah – I am hot and cold on Green. he can make these beautiful pirouette catches one inning, then the next inning chuck an airball into the dugout. still I think ANYone is better than Lugo. my 65 year old father would make a better shortstop than Lugo at this point.
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June 13th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Agreed. Anyone is better than Lugo. And I think Lowrie will at least be more consistent than Green has been.
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