So since we last checked in, Padres first-sacker Adrian Gonzalez has continued mashing balls out of the park at a prodigous rate, and is currently on pace for 63 bombs this season despite playing half his games in the worst hitters park in the Majors.

gonzalezBut what is downright scary about Adrian Gonzalez’s 2009 campaign is that he has actually been unlucky this year on batted balls. His BABIP is only .246, well below his career mark of .312,  and seventh worst in the league, way down there with other down-on-their-luck hitters like Jimmy Rollins, Jay Bruce, and Garrett Atkins.

But whereas those other guys are all putting up pretty depressed stat lines due to their bad luck with BABIP, Gonzalez has an outstanding slash line of .281/.421/.638/1.059

It is amazing to ponder how crazy that line would look if Gonzalez were having even average luck this year on balls in play.

4 Responses to “The Scariest Thing About Adrian Gonzalez”

  1. I disagree. BABIP excludes HR, so if his BABIP goes up he’ll simply have a higher average, higher peripheral numbers and more doubles. (Unless he’s got a abnormally high percentage of flyball outs to the warning track)

    I have a different theory…Look at his splits this year, notice what counts he’s hitting well in (0-0, 1-0, 3-2)….those are all fastball counts. He also has a higher percentage of homers on the first pitch. I’m guessing pitchers are trying to use that big petco field to their advantage and work him into long flyball outs.

    No way he keeps this up. No protection, expect a steady diet of offspeed/breaking pitchers the rest of the season.

  2. My bad, yo…I misread your post.

    You’re absolutely right.

  3. Paul Moro says:

    Nathan, I think you’re talking about two different things. Of course, BABiP excludes HRs. That’s part of the point of the number itself. But Nick’s post is saying that his AVG/OBP/SLG line would be even better if the BABiP was more in line with his career norms. Which is absolutely true. He’s not contending that the HR numbers would go up as well since that would be a total misinterpretation of BABiP.

    But you may be very on the mark in regards to Gonzalez feasting on fastballs. His pitch type values are ridiculously strong on the FB. But it should be noted that he’s also crushing changeups and sliders too. The only pitch that seems to be giving him some trouble is the curveball.

  4. Just like Pedro Cerano!

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