You remember Aaron Guiel, don’t you? That journeyman fifth outfielder who once hit 15 homers for the Kansas City Royals back in 2003? Who batted .256 in 82 at-bats with the Yankees in 2006? Who posted a major league career line of .246/.338/.447 in parts of six major league seasons?

Sure you do.

Well, three years on since his last major league appearance, Guiel has undergone a mini career renaissance playing in Japan for the Yakult Swallows. In his first year in Japan, in 2007, Guiel (or “Gai-eru” in Japanese) belted 35 homers, which tied for second in the league. After an injury plagued 2008 campaign, Guiel has come back strong with 23 homers and a respectable .262/.361/.512 line.

Along the way, he has earned the nickname “Angel” from Japanese fans, due to his blond, curly hair and his reportedly angelic demeanor, as well as his own cheering section in Jingu Stadium, instantly recognizable by its frenetic waving of Canadian flags whenever Guiel comes up to bat (Guiel is from Vancouver).

And of course, as a starting player on a Japanese team, Guiel has his very own personal fight song, which the fans sing at the top of their lungs whenever he bats:

(Trumpet Fanfare=first several notes of “Oh Canada”)

Oh! Guiel! You hit the ball!
Oh! Guiel! A home run!
Aa-ron Gui-el! The man who works miracles!
Toward the stands you launch, a timely blast!

My buddy Glenn likes gifs. He’s prolific at them, actually. He says he’ll soon graduate to flash video. I, for one, hope he doesn’t abandon the wonderful aesthetic and convenient medium of the GIF. Every one is a treasure worth discovering.

Anyway, upon hearing the news that one Bobby Cox would retire, Glenn decided to conceptualize the importance of this announcement in the form of an animated GIF.

This is the result.

As far as Cox’ legacy beyond the animated GIF, ie, baseball? Rob Neyer’s post puts it in good perspective.

Really, the only thing missing from Cox’s resumè is World Championships (plural). He’s won just one of them, fewer than non-Hall of Famers Danny Murtaugh, Billy Martin, Tom Kelly, Ralph Houk, and Cito Gaston.

Which won’t keep Cox out of the Hall of Fame. It’s a lot harder to win the World Series than it used to be, and winning just one World Series certainly didn’t keep Earl Weaver out of the Coop.

The Phillies dodged a bullet. Today they found out that catcher Carlos Ruiz’s wrist isn’t structurally damaged and he’ll be back in action in a week.

Good thing, because after Ruiz the Phillies have zero catching depth.

And that’s really amazing, because when the season started the organization had a slew of catchers.

Here’s what happened:

Over the winter the Phils traded minor league catcher Jason Jaramillo, an above-average defender who couldn’t hit, for Ronny Paulino, a good hitting catcher with a reputation for dickishness.

Then the Phillies traded Paulino for lefty reliever Jack Taschner, who has bounced between the big club and triple-A this season. With the Phils he’s given up 36 hits in 28 innings. Paulino, meanwhile, ended up with the Marlins where he played 75 games and hit .278/.344/.435. Fangraphs says he’s been worth $7.7MM this season.

The Phils entered 2009 with Ruiz the starter, Chris Coste the backup, and prospect Lou Marson waiting in the wings at triple-A. Then the Phils traded Marson in the Cliff Lee deal, and they were down to only two guys with major league skills — Ruiz and Coste.

So the Phils picked up Paul Bako, a career backup with a good reputation as a receiver and absolutely no clue when it comes to hitting a baseball. Look up “replacement level catcher” in the dictionary and you’ll find a picture of Bako.

And then they put Coste on waivers to make room for Raul Ibanez, who was coming off a month-long DL stint, and the Astros claimed Coste (damn you, Ed Wade!).

And just like that they were down to two catchers, and one of them was Bako. And he sucks.

This week the Phils came dangerously close to losing Ruiz and entering the postseason with Bako as their starting catcher and minor league journeyman Paul Hoover the backup.

Next season, maybe Philadelphia should bring back the mustache, just in case?

When the Tampa Bay Rays signed LF/DH Pat Burrell to a 2-year $16 million contract this past off-season, I thought that the defending AL champs had gotten a steal – especially in comparison to the 3-year $31.5 million deal that his replacement in Philadelphia, Raul Ibanez, would garner from Burrell’s old team. And while I won’t make final judgments until these two contracts are completed, it’s looking like I was wrong. Very, very wrong.

While Ibanez was posting career-best numbers as a 37-year old Phillie, Burrell was doing the exact opposite in Tampa. His walk rate is below career norms, he’s striking out more often than he has in several seasons and his power has seemingly disappeared (.385 SLG? Who are you?).

To his credit, the guy isn’t making excuses for himself. But that also means that we don’t quite know if there’s something wrong that can be fixed during the off-season.

There are, however, potential explanations for his dip in performance that could portend a much better season in 2010:

1. The talent gap between the AL East and NL East. Especially over the past few seasons, the quality of pitching in the NL East has been slightly underwhelming. Johan Santana didn’t enter the division until 2008 so the only top-level SP that Burrell had to face consistently over the last few seasons was John Smoltz. Now in the big boys league, he has to face the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Can Burrell adjust to the higher quality pitching at the age of 33? I haven’t the faintest.
2. Hiding an injury. You wouldn’t expect a player to have such a dramatic drop in power numbers from one season to another and especially not at Burrell’s age. This is a guy who had slugged over .500 from 2005-2008. How does he become a sub-.400 slugger seemingly overnight? If he had a serious injury, that would explain quite a lot.
3. He’s done this before. The main reason why I don’t believe that Pat Burrell is washed up is because of his 2003 season. A year prior to that, the then-26-year old had a very strong line of .282/.376/.544 with 37 HRs. He had become on of the  better offensive threats in the National League. But he followed it up with a very disappointing season where he batted .209/.309/.404 with 21 HRs. And despite a wrist injury in 2004, his numbers rebounded very well and he was a solid hitter for the rest of his stay in Philadelphia. No actual reason (none that I saw, anyway) was ever really given for his sharp drop in production in 2003.

I am not going to say that any of these potential reasons are correct because at this point, I have no way of knowing anything. But I will say that Burrell most likely is not done, simply because it’s rare for a 33 year old hitter to fall off such a steep cliff. There’s got to be a reason aside from “decline” that ruined Burrell’s 2009 season. I just don’t quite know what that reason may be.

Because people will be upset if I wrote about Burrell and didn't include this photo...

So I’m watching Gary “Sarge” Matthews talk about today’s Phils-Braves pitching matchup, Cliff Lee vs. Tommy Hanson, and Sarge refers to Lee as “a certain, maybe, Hall-of-Famer.”

And I don’t know what certain-maybe means, but Lee is not a certain Hall of Famer, and he’s not maybe a Hall of Famer. Lee is a very good pitcher who seems to have finally figured it all out after a couple down years and a demotion to the minors in 2007. But Lee, who is 30, has had exactly one season with an ERA under 3.00, he’s never struck out 200 batters in a season, and if he averages 20 wins a year over the next 10 seasons, he still won’t reach 300 wins.

Sarge is the man because he wears cool hats and he’s friends with Obama. But jeez, that guy says some crazy stuff.

A while back, we questioned the notion that the Braves’ trade for Adam LaRoche was about 2010. Today we’ll take a look at who might play 1B for Atlanta next season.

The contenders:

1. Adam LaRoche, the team’s current 1B, will be a free agent at the end of the season and could be resigned.

2. Chipper Jones, who has had a horrid season at third base, leading the league in errors and posting a -10.1 UZR, might benefit from a move to first.

3. Freddie Freeman is a first baseman and one of the organization’s top prospects, but probably won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2011 or, at the earliest, late 2010.

4. Martin Prado has had a good year, playing mostly at second base but also spending time at 1B and 3B and hitting .291/.342/.429.

5. Nick Johnson and Carlos Delgado are two other free agent first basemen, and are both injury risks.

So what’s Atlanta to do? Let’s analyze the situation:

• Move Chipper to 1B. This seems obvious, right? The Braves need a first baseman and Chipper seemingly can no longer hack it at third. Moving him to first would keep his bat in the lineup and hopefully help him stay off the DL. But here’s the rub: if Chipper moves to 1B he’ll be blocking Freeman, who could be ready for the bigs as soon as June. And Chipper is signed through 2011, so Freeman would potentially be stuck at triple-A until 2012.
• Make Martin Prado the first baseman. Prado has had a pretty decent season serving as Atlanta’s super utility player, hitting .291/.342/.429. The Braves could move him to first, where he’s played decent defense in 2009, until Freeman is ready. Unfortunately, this move wouldn’t solve the problem of Jones’ deteriorating fielding ability, and Atlanta would be crossing their fingers that Jones’ bad year in the field was an anomaly. Jones had an almost equally bad season at third in 2006, but rebounded to play average defense in 2007 and was a stellar fielder last season. Maybe he’ll make a similar recovery in 2010? Maybe. But he’s at the age when a dramatic defensive improvement is unlikely.
• Bring back LaRoche. This would be the safe play, as you pretty much know what you’re getting with LaRoche. On the other hand, what you’re getting really isn’t that great, and there’s little reason to think that he’d be any better than Prado, who is already under contract.
• Sign another free agent. Other free agent first basemen include Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson, but both come with injury concerns. On the plus side, signing a free agent first baseman would allow Atlanta to play Prado at second base in 2010, where he’d most likely represent an offensive upgrade over Kelly Johnson, who has never lived up to expectations.

My advice? Atlanta should sign a free agent 2B, shift Prado to 3B and move Chipper to first. Both Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson will be available this winter and both would represent a drastic improvement over Kelly Johnson, who started 2009 as Atlanta’s 2B before getting benched.

Sure, Chipper would be blocking Freeman, but only until Chipper strains an oblique or herniates a disk in his back, or comes down with some other inevitable injury. And when he does Atlanta can call up Freeman for a tryout with the big club. And if Freeman hits so well that Atlanta is forced to keep him in the lineup even after Chipper returns from the DL, well, that’ll be a good problem to have.

In tonight’s game between the Reds and the Cubs, Cubs starter Rich Harden had already run up a pitch count of 103 through 4 innings of work, despite only allowing 1 run, so Cubs manager Lou Pinella opted to remove him from the game (wisely, I would say, given Harden’s legendary fragility). Harden left with a 4-1 lead, but obviously could not get the win, since he had not pitched the requisite 5 innings.

Rookie reliever Jeff Stevens thereupon entered the game to start the 5th frame, pitching one inning and earning his first ever career win.

The only problem was, in his one inning of work Stevens gave up two singles and a three run bomb to Johnny Gomes, erasing the Cubs’ lead and leaving the game as a 4-4 tie.

The Cubs promptly came back and scored a run in the bottom half of the fifth, and scoreless relief by three other Cubs relievers, including 2 innings of hitless, 3-strikeout work by Aaron Heilman, preserved a 6-4 victory for Chicago, and saved the “win” for Stevens.

This is one of the worst cases of “vulturing a win” that I’ve seen in a long, long time. Stevens was far and away the worst Cubs pitcher in this game, posting a -.265 WPA whereas all the other four pitchers were positive, and yet he was awarded the win.

I know I’m just beating a long dead horse here, but why again do so many people hang so much of their evaluation of a player (not to mention Cy Young Awards), on this incredibly flawed stat?

Derek Jeter’s career on-base percentage: .387
Lou Gehrig’s career on-base percentage: .447

Derek Jeter’s career total times on base: 3736
Lou Gehrig’s career total times on base: 4274

Jeter has a ways to go.