The Marlins finished in second place in 2009, but the reality is they only scored 6 more runs than they allowed and the third-place Braves had a much better run differential. So Florida will have to improve more than a little if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot in 2010.

Offense isn’t a big problem for the Fish. In 2009, the Marlins scored more runs than every NL team except for the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers and Rockies. But run prevention was a weakness. Division rivals Atlanta and Philadelphia allowed fewer runs.

As usual, the Marlins will insist on spending the bare minimum. Fortunately, improving this team shouldn’t cost much.

The biggest thing Florida can do to improve in 2010 is take Emilio Bonifacio, strap him to a rocket, and shoot him into space. Florida’s insistence on starting Bonifacio at third base and batting him leadoff for much of 2009 cost the team valuable runs. That can’t happen again.

Unfortunately, it might happen again. In his column today, Peter Gammons suggested that the Marlins will probably play Bonifacio at second base in 2010 (after they trade incumbent 2B Dan Uggla to shed payroll):

But if Emilio Bonifacio can play second base and improve his .303 on-base percentage, the Marlins pretty much know who and what they are going to be in 2010.

Bonifacio at second isn’t nearly as great a sin as Bonifacio at third, which is a position where teams generally field a player who contributes power and OBP. But Bonifacio, even if he proves to be a decent defender, should never again be allowed to bat leadoff. Never. Again.

If the Marlins are smart and get rid of Bonifacio altogether, that’ll open up holes at first base and third (assuming free agent 1B Nick Johnson signs elsewhere). Jorge Cantu can plug one of those holes — most likely third base. He’s no Brooks Robinson. Far, far from it. UZR hates Cantu at third. But he’s got decent pop and he’s relatively cheap and he’s in what should be his prime, and because of his defensive struggles he’s got little trade value. So he’ll have to do.

At first base, Gaby Sanchez should be given a shot at the big time after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A. Logan Morrison is probably another year or two away, but could be ready by midseason.

With Uggla on his way out and Bonifacio an unappealing option, rookie of the year Chris Coghlan is another guy to consider at second base. At least, I think he can play second base. He played there in the minor leagues. If he could handle the position in 2010 that would be really great for the Fish. If he can’t, I suppose Florida could put him back in left field, though he wasn’t particularly good there last season. Actually, let me rephrase that. He was particularly bad in left last season. Bill James says he was the 34th best LF in the game, and he cost his team 16 runs, compared to the average left fielder. In fairness, Coghlan had never played the outfield before last season, and he’s likely improve in 2010, given the chance. But he’d have to improve a lot to justify running him out there again.

Florida is set with Camerin Maybin in CF and Cody Ross in one of the corner spots. The Fish are said to be in the market for another corner outfielder (again assuming Coghlan moves to the infield), and presumably Matt Holliday isn’t an option. But there are a couple of free agents out there who might be lured by the prospect of an everyday gig. Maybe Randy Winn, Eric Hinske or Coco Crisp?

As for Florida’s pitching, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are an incredibly solid 1-2 punch. Chris Volstad wasn’t good in 2009, but the 23-year-old groundball pitcher has a good shot at improving in 2010 if he can just surrender a few fewer flyballs. Even if Volstad doesn’t improve his flyball percentage this season, it’s unlikely he’ll once again give up homers at a 17.5% clip.

Andrew Miller, Sean West and Anibal Sanchez can fight it out for the final two rotation spots, and Florida would be wise to pick up a veteran SP to push the youngsters and give Florida one more option for the rotation. Doug Davis or Carl Pavano would be nice pick-ups, if the price were right. And let’s face it, in order for Florida to sign anyone, the price will have to be right.

Conclusion: I’d love to see Florida sign Crisp, who would do a lot to bolster the team’s defense. An outfield of Crisp, Maybin and Ross would be a defensive juggernaut. The real questions are 1. Can Coghlan play second base? 2. Can Cantu provide close to average defense at third? 3. Can Josh Johnson stay healthy? and 4. Can Sanchez hit big league pitching?

That’s a lot of questions, and I’m sure I forgot a few. A lot would have to go right for the Marlins to compete in 2010. But this is a young team, and young teams can sometimes surprise us.

What They Need Index

If you take a quick glance at the Minnesota Twins 2009 campaign, you might deem it a success since they reached the postseason. But taking a closer look at the numbers and you’ll realize that the Twins were basically a carbon copy of their 2008 selves. The difference was essentially the outcome of the second, division-deciding, one-game playoff in as many years (I mean, their records were almost identical!).

Well, not everything was identical. Last year, I pointed out the dearth of power as the Twins hit the least home runs in the American League and this time around, they managed to increase that number by over 50 long balls. Problem is, along with those gains came some significant losses: Had a lower team batting average, stole less bases, allowed more runs and scored less than in 2008.

Even still, their offense was good enough to get them over the hump, posting the third best average in the majors and scoring the fifth most runs. Pitching, on the other hand, was mediocre: Fifth worse ERA and third worse batting average against.

With that said, there are two areas that the Twins need to focus on this offseason, adding a bat or two to the infield, and solidifying their rotation. By trading for J.J. Hardy, who’ll take over a departing Orlando Cabrera at short, while clearing a bit of the log-jam in the outfield in the process (they shipped the inconsistent Carlos Gomez), they’ve plugged a hole in the infield. Question is, will Hardy be a good replacement over Cabrera or even Brendan Harris, who posted better numbers in ‘08?

The Twins also have a hole at third, as the Joe Crede experiment culminated in a third consecutive offseason back surgery.

Btw, this quote from Scott Boras regearding Crede is priceless:

“The great thing about Joe is you’re hiring on a one-year contract,” Boras said. “It’s not often you’re going to get that level of a player to sign for one year.”

Many names are currently being floated in the internetz as possibilities for the Twins to add to their infield, including Brandon Phillips, Felipe Lopez, and Adrian Beltre, so expect another trade or perhaps a run at a free agent like Orlando Hudson.

The Twins also need to improve their rotation as only three starters made more than 29 starts, so it’s no surprise that GM Bill Smith was openly discussing the possibility of bringing in a veteran arm or two.

As it’s always the case, the Twins will try to make all these moves within the scope of their frugality, and any move will have to be tied to a long-term plan, says Smith. Sure, their new stadium is ready go, but any increase in attendance revenue will only be available next offseason.

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Look, we could talk about how the Dodgers need a second baseman now that Joe Torre completely alienated Orlando Hudson by benching him in favor of an inferior player down the stretch and in the playoffs, or how the Dodgers need another starting pitcher or two, but why beat around the bush when what the Dodgers clearly need, way more than anything else, is new ownership.

Even before the whole divorce saga exploded, Frank and Jamie McCourt had already worn thin their welcome a long time ago. These are people who forced Ned Colletti add the game’s best catching prospect as a throw-in to the Casey Blake trade just to save a lousy $2 million, but who at the same time were dropping tens of millions of dollars annually on at least 7 massive mansions.

These are owners who have refused to sign even a single one of the team’s young talent to any sort of contract at all, despite the fact that this is the obvious way to secure the long-term competitiveness of the franchise while keeping fan favorites in the fold, instead going to arbitration every single year with every single one of them.

These are owners who doubled down on Ned Colletti, giving him a secret contract of undisclosed length and size “in order to prevent speculation,” apparently not realizing that the best possible way to encourage speculation of all types is to give someone a secret contract, and all this in spite of the fact that almost all of the success the Dodgers have had recently is because of Logan White and Kim Ng and Joe Torre, and actually in spite of Colletti’s “efforts.”

Frank McCourt is the kind of owner who likes to show up in the press box in the middle of a game to “chat” with Vin Scully, blathering on and on about nothing, sometimes for innings at a time, when we are all trying to watch the game and would much rather be listening to the greatest sports broadcaster of all time.

These are the kind of owners, who used money they didn’t even have to buy one of the most storied franchises in baseball, with one of the largest fanbases and revenue streams, and proceeded to run it like it had the revenue stream of the Devil Rays, all while extracting as much income out of it as they could to support their lavish lifestyle.

And yet, instead of recognizing what an incredible stroke of luck they had to get their hands on such a team, and doing their best to keep it, they let their marital troubles spin out of control to the point where probably neither of them will keep the team, and in the meantime the a huge cloud hangs over the whole franchise. Because if you thought the McCourts were loathe to spend money on the actual team before, just wait til you see how little they spend now that they need every last penny to pay their lawyers.

In short, what the Dodgers need more than anything is new ownership, as soon as possible.

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The Red Sox finished 7 games behind the Yankees and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs. How can they avoid a similar fate in 2010?

Boston’s biggest problem in 2009 was defense. They had the third-best run differential in baseball, yet ranked dead last in deff eff for much of the year. Their lineup, while certainly not bad, was not good enough. And their starting pitching, while good, was not good enough in the postseason.

Defense, offense, and pitching sounds like a lot (”Other than that, what did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”) but it’s actually not that bad. Boston has a pretty good team. Their biggest need this winter is the left side of the diamond. They could beef it up with one or more of the following acquisitions:

1. Sign LF Matt Holliday. Theo Epstein has hardly dared to breathe Holliday’s name this winter, and insists loudly to all who will listen that he wants to re-sign Jason Bay. Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much. Of the two, Holliday is clearly the left fielder the Red Sox need, superior on both offense and defense to Bay. (Bay has only once posted a positive UZR; Holliday has only once posted a negative UZR. Bay was worth 33.7 runs on offense, while Holliday’s bat was worth 36. Though some have wondered if Holliday is somehow incapable of hitting in the AL, it’s worth noting that his “terrible” slash line for the A’s was .286/.378/.454. Move him to hitter-friendly Fenway, and I think his righthanded bat will feel right at home. However, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox are loaded up with outfield prospects, so they might not want to commit a lot of money and years to a free agent signing there. (Also, Fire Brand of the American League likes the Jeremy Hermida acquisition.)
2. Sign 3B Adrian Beltre Beltre is another example of a righthanded hitter whose numbers would benefit from moving to Fenway Park, but I’m more interested in another aspect of his game: glovework. Beltre has been outstanding the last TK seasons as a third baseman, and the Red Sox desperately need to improve at third, where Mike Lowell, post-hip surgery, posted an UZR of -10.4. And while Kevin Youkilis can play third, his defense there is neutral, while his defense at first is actually a plus. (I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Boston to trade for a premier first baseman at this time.) If the Red Sox do sign Beltre, what happens to Lowell? I think the Red Sox just need to accept that, for 2010, they’ll have a very expensive DH platoon. To trade either Lowell or Ortiz, the Sox would have to eat a large portion of salary, and I’m doubtful about what they could get in return. Yes, a $25 million platoon is pricey. But those are sunk costs, and both players come off the books after next season — whether the Red Sox win or lose.
3. Acquire a shortstop Theo Epstein already missed out on JJ Hardy, but a girl can dare to dream of Marco Scutaro. Theo supposedly spends his free time scheming of ways to bring Hanley Ramirez back to Boston, but that seems like quite a long shot. Other names that have been bandied about include Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (great, so Bostonians can have another Drew brother to dump on?). It’s also worth mentioning that the Sox have defensively talented Cuban defector Jose Iglesias in their system, who they signed to a big-league deal in September. However, he’ll only be 20 in January and has “a swing-at-anything approach” according to Baseball Prospectus.

I’d be remiss if we didn’t at least talk about Boston’s pitching needs. You can never have too much starting pitching, and the Red Sox have diligently inquired with John Lackey’s agent. However, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll make a big push for him. There are also plenty of Type B free agent pitchers and rehab projects on the market, and the latter will be almost irresistible to Theo Epstein. For the GM who signed Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz, it will be nearly impossible to layoff the reclamation project crack pipe. With Boston’s superb medical staff, if any of these pitchers can be had at reasonable prices, you can bet Epstein will be in on it.

The Red Sox have the deep pockets to make some free agent signings; plus, their current core of home-grown players — Lester, Youkilis, and Pedroia — are all signed to inexpensive, multi-year deals. If the Red Sox can add one of Holliday, Beltre, or Scutaro to beef up the left side of the diamond, and gamble on a good pitcher (or two) coming back from injury, they’ll have a decent shot at knocking the Yankees off their perch.

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The 2009 Mariners became a bit of a darling in the sabermetric world. The proponents of the non-traditional fielding stats such as Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Plus/Minus were actually able to see their beliefs translate to on-field success. You see, the Mariners brought in a group of players rated highly by UZR and +/- but were undervalued in the market due to the fact that they didn’t put up gaudy offensive numbers.

Consequently, the 2009 Mariners finished the year 85-77, which is a much better record than many (myself included) had them pegged for prior to the season. When Russell Branyan was arguably your best hitter, conventional wisdom says that you shouldn’t finish with 85 wins – especially not in the American League. But their stellar defense (only three pitchers on the entire team finished with an ERA higher than their FIP) as well as an elite season from ace Felix Hernandez gave the M’s a 24-win improvement in the span of a year.

So what do they need to do to get to 90+ wins and contend for a playoff spot? The good news is, the Mariners have some play money this year. Aside from the $18M owed to Ichiro and the ludicrous $12.75M going to pay Carlos Silva, Seattle doesn’t have any contract obligations that will cost them more than $5M in 2010. It does not appear that they will re-sign third baseman Adrian Beltre and the money saved there should at least cover the expected arbitration raises for their younger players and then some. Add in the close to $17M that free agent pitchers Miguel Batista and Erik Bedard made (not to mention the god-send that was Kenji Johjima walking away from his contract), and the Mariners have financial capacity. Therefore…

Ease up a tad on the bargain hunting. One of the things that I often write about here on the ol’ blog is the importance of maintaining financial flexibility in terms of payroll. Don’t pay extra for something you’ve already got (like, say, signing a replacement level player or four to seven figure contracts), and only consider future performance instead of past accomplishments (trading any prospect for a 38 year-old former All Star with three years left on a contract is usually not encouraged).  However, bargain hunting often only gets you so far. While guys like Jack Hannahan and Mike Carp will probably add a couple wins on the cheap, they’re not going to add five or six a piece. And the Mariners have a lot of Hannahan-types on their roster. Sometimes, you need to pay some cash and roll the dice. To get to the next level without commiting $300M over the next five years, this is what needs to be done.

Luckily for the Mariners, there are guys worth gambling on, like Ben Sheets or Rich Harden. Yes, the Mariners tried something similar with Erik Bedard last year and got only 83 innings out of the guy before he inevitably got hurt again. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea at the time. In this market, I’d imagine that Sheets would have a hard time finding a multi-year deal and could be had for $7-8M plus incentives and that sounds like a reasonable chance to take for a team lacking an impact starter after King Felix.

Offensively, the re-signing of Ken Griffey Jr. was a bad idea for two reasons. One, his on-field production is now replacement level and is therefore not even worth the $2M. Two, he takes up a roster spot (corner OF) that could have been used to bring in some much needed power into the fold. But what’s done is done and now the M’s must figure out how to work their roster with the current conditions.

Bringing back Russell Branyan appears to be a good idea. His injury that ended the season may have been a blessing in disguise for Seattle as there is now a lesser chance that another team will go crazy in pursuing him. With Branyan back at firstbase, that leaves Mike Carp as the primary candidate to be DH. Is he ready? And if Branyan gets hurt again, will Carp be even passable at first? Assuming that Carlos Delgado is out of their price range, someone like Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche seems to make sense, in which case they’d have to decide if they want production (Johnson) or durability (LaRoche).

They could also use an upgrade at second base, as Jose Lopez offers little offensively or defensively.  If I were Seattle, I’d be leery of diving into the free agent market here as neither Orlando Hudson nor Felipe Lopez are ideal situations. Hudson could garner a deal longer than he deserves at his age and diminishing skills while Lopez isn’t a very good defensive option and had a very strong 2009, which makes him a candidate for being overvalued on the market.  But what about trading for someone like the Cubs’ Mike Fontenot, who would be a good platoon partner for Lopez? This route would probably mean that they would have to clear a roster spot (probably Bill Hall), but it is a way for Seattle to make a run at a pitcher and DH with the available funds.

An offensive upgrade could also come from within, as Matt Tuiasosopo (say that five times fast) appears ready to take on a larger role with the team in 2010. Tuisosopo had a respectable line of .261/.368/.473 in AAA-Tacoma and while he’s learning how to play second base, it appears likely that he’s better suited to play a less demanding position at his size (6′2, 225lbs) and could be a better choice at third than the defensively gifted but offensively inept Jack Hannahan.

So while the Mariners have some funds to experiment, they still can’t compete with the big boys in terms of payroll – at least, not as long as they’re paying Carlos Silva. And they would be better off plugging a few holes with those funds than breaking the bank on a Matt Holliday. It’s not easy for an 85-win team to become a playoff contender. But the Mariners have a chance to do just that, so long as they take a chance on some risky names.

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Leave it to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. While all the other baseball hacks are reporting on boring stuff that nobody cares about (trades, signings, the crappiness of the O’Hare Hilton), he’s bringing us the good stuff.

From Crasnick’s Twitter:

In other news .. San Diego OF Kyle Blanks just became the 5th player to get the Matt Sosnick-Paul Cobbe company logo tattooed onto his arm.

and…

“License to Deal” trivia: The other Sosnick-Cobbe tattoo guys are Jon and Jason Pridie, Tigers P Zach Simons and Dontrelle Willis.

That’s right, Matt Sosnick and Paul Cobbe have five (out of 33) Major League clients who have agreed to get their agency’s logo tattooed on them (logo shown in upper right).

Well, actually, John Pridie is no longer a client. He joined the Sosnick-Cobbe team a few years ago as an agent.

I think one of two things is going on here. Either Sosnick and Cobbe are the greatest guys/agents in the whole world and their clients were dying for a way to express their gratitude, or these tattooed players totally misunderstood when Sosnick and Cobbe talked to them about the importance of branding.

Jayson Stark doesn’t think the Philies should sign Chone Figgins because Figgins is a leadoff hitter and the Phillies already have a leadoff hitter.

From ESPN.com:

“What happens if they try to install Figgins in the leadoff hole? That has the potential to create a gigantic problem because they’d have to sell it to their current leadoff man, some guy named Jimmy Rollins. And that won’t be easy. So to me Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Placido Polanco are much better fits for them, depending on the asking price.”

Rollins had a .296 OBP in 2009, which was the third lowest in the National League, behind only Clint Barmes and Bengie Molina. Because he still has some power and speed, Rollins isn’t a total loss offensively. But leadoff hitters are supposed to get on base and score runs, and because of Rollins’ inability to get on base he’s a terrible fit for the leadoff spot.

Granted, the Phils have been to two consecutive World Series with Rollins batting leadoff, but I think it’s safe to say that in 2009 the Phils succeeded despite Rollins offense (which Fangraphs says was worh -10 runs), not because of it. In fact, whether or not the Phillies sign Figgins, Rollins shouldn’t bat leadoff in 2010. Shane Victorino would be a much better candidate.

I’m of the belief that if your team is using a guy with a sub-.310 OBP in the leadoff spot, somebody should be fired. Probably the manager. Maybe the GM. Possibly both. But I must be in the minority because last season, of the 10 guys with the lowest OBPs in the NL, three of them (Rollins, Guzman and Soriano) batted leadoff most of the year, and one of them (Bonifacio) batted leadoff for nearly half the season.

You’ll hear a lot of Philly fans bitch about Charlie Manuel’s allegiance to closer Brad Lidge, but his willingness to stick with Rollins at the leadoff spot is an equally great crime.

As a Phillies fan, the Braves’ rotation is keeping me up at night. Derek Lowe. Tim Hudson (who just signed a three-year deal). Jair Jurrjens. Tommy Hanson. Javier Vazquez. Good god almighty, that is a solid five.

Oh, and don’t forget about Kenshin Kawakami, who posted a 3.86 ERA in 2009 and is under contract for another two seasons. He’s a pretty decent insurance plan.

Suffice it to say, Atlanta doesn’t need to worry about their starting pitching. What they do need to worry about is first base. And left field. And right field. And the bullpen. And Chipper Jones’ fragile, quickly deteriorating body.

Last season it took Atlanta a few months to figure out a lineup that could score runs. Once they realized Martin Prado was the answer at second base, and replaced Jordan Schaffer with Nate McLouth and Jeff Francoeur with Ryan Church, they were cooking with gas.

They also traded for Adam LaRoche, who provided his usual second-half fireworks. But now LaRoche is a free agent, and Atlanta is faced with the option of re-signing him and enduring his usual first-half craptitude, or pursuing another option. LaRoche’s first-half/second-half splits are real. His first-half OPS: .773. His second-half OPS: .909. Rather than bringing him back, a better plan would be moving Chipper Jones to first base. Jones’ defense appears to be slipping, but his bat is still potent. At first base he’d be more likely to stay healthy and he’d cost the team fewer runs on defense.

Who would play third if Chipper moved to first? Pedro Feliz will likely be available and nobody has a stronger, more accurate arm. Other free agents include Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa, but those guys will likely prove too expensive for the cash-strapped Braves. Melvin Mora and Placido Polanco are other options.

Last season, Matt Diaz played a big chunk of games in left field and did quite well. But Diaz is traditionally poor against righties and the Braves might want to keep him in a platoon. Fortunately, Atlanta has Ryan Church, who hits righties OK enough (.280/.353/.460). Diaz and Church can split time in left field, while rookie Jason Heyward can play right field if he makes the team out of spring training. Rob Neyer says, “Heyward’s first time in Double-A came this summer, when he was just turning 20. In 47 games he struck out 19 times, drew 28 walks, and posted a .446 on-base percentage.” So he’s going to be good. If Heyward needs some more minor league seasoning, Diaz/Church could shift to right field and the Braves could sign a free agent or trade for a left fielder. The AJC’s Dave O’Brien says not to dismiss rumors that Atlanta might trade for Florida 2B Dan Uggla and shift him to LF. I’m not sure I endorse that idea, but it’s one option.

Finally, we’ve got the bullpen. Between them, the Braves’ dual closers had as many blown saves in 2009 as Brad Lidge. That’s not good. On the other hand, their combined ERAs were still more than a run lower than Lidge’s. So let’s not go crazy bashing them. Mike Gonzalez walked a few too many batters, but mostly he and Rafael Soriano were just a little unlucky. The Braves paid them a total of about $10MM in 2009, and if they can sign them to similar deals in 2010 they should bring them back. Otherswise, there are plenty of free agent bullpen arms out there.

Ultimately, that’s all Atlanta needs. Shift Chipper to first and sign Feliz and you improve your infield defense. Create a Diaz/Church platoon, and you’ve improved over last year’s Diaz/Garrett Anderson platoon. Uggla/Heyward/Anyone-else in the other corner outfield spot is better than Jeff Francoeur, last year’s starting right fielder. A full season of Prado will be an improvement over a Kelly Johnson/Prado split.

The rumor is the Braves are going to trade one of their pitchers, most likely Lowe, Vazquez or Kawakami, to reduce payroll and land a left fielder with pop. I think the team should hang onto it’s pitching depth. They’re not the Giants. They’re not desperate for offense. They were fifth in OBP last season, sixth in wOBP, and fifth in runs scored. As for the team’s payroll situation, I’m not an accountant, but I don’t think my plan, which calls for signing one free agent position player (Feliz) and a couple of bullpen arms, is too extravagent.

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