This is one of a series of posts in which we eviscerate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move. Guest author Melissa Rakestraw is a life-long Cubs fan and a first-time poster on UmpBump.com.

On October 14, 1908, the Chicago Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers to become baseball’s world champions. It was their second consecutive title; they have failed to win a championship since that time. They haven’t even won their division two years in a row since then. But despite a century of futility, expectations around this team have been elevated after their come-from-behind NL Central title last year. And after watching previously futile franchises like the Red Sox and the cross-town White Sox take titles in ‘04 and ‘05 and then seeing their arch-rival Cardinals win it all in ‘06, Cubs fans (and Ryan Demptster) are tired of the lament, “wait ’til next year,” and in 2008 ask, “Why not us?” But that may be asking too much.

On the surface, it does appear that GM Jim Hendry has improved the team enough to repeat as division champs, but will these moves provide what’s necessary to win a World Series? For those looking for signs that the Curse of the Goat is still alive and well, the advent of spring training has already seen numerous oddities arise, which include the twisted testicles of Felix Pie, the fighting cocks of Aramis Ramirez, a fractured middle finger for Alfonso Soriano, the surgically repaired heart of Mark DeRosa and a convenience store smackdown suffered by Jose Ascanio. Let’s take a look at the offseason moves of a team whose season has already gotten off to a memorable start, regardless of the final outcome…

In ‘07 the Cubs had enough talent to overcome a slow start and make a second half push to win a weak division. But once they were swept by Arizona from the divisional round of the playoffs, it was clear that they were deficient in several areas. The most glaring weakness the Cubs suffered from was the lack of a #2 starter after Carlos Zambrano. Lefties Ted Lilly and Rich Hill certainly didn’t look the part and no one acquired in the offseason can be considered able to fill this role. The Cubs would have been well served to have made an effort to acquire Eric Bedard, Dan Haren, or Joe Blanton. The addition of any of these pitchers could have made them the clear favorite in the NL.

The Cubs have a fairly deep arsenal of young pitching prospects that surely would have made them competitive bidders. Although when asked why he never made an attempt to acquire Johan Santana, Hendry claimed that Santana refused to waive his no trade clause for a team that trained outside of Florida, I find it doubtful that the Cubs would have been willing to sacrifice the prospects necessary to complete the deal. In the past they have refused to deal top prospects only to have them fizzle out on the major league level (think Corey Patterson).

Hendry did make progress in upgrading his position players by somehow managing to unload the undisciplined and unfocused Jacque Jones on Detroit for utility man Omar Infante. This move set up Hendry’s acquisition of the crown jewel of the Cubs’ offseason – Kosuke Fukudome, the former Japanese-league MVP – who signed with Chicago for $48 million over 4 years. He was the primary free agent the Cubs targeted and his strengths should bolster areas that have been known weaknesses for the club. Defensively in right field, look for him to showcase impressive fielding skills and a rocket arm. Right field bleacher fans should not be surprised when they see him hitting the cut-off man or gunning down runners attempting to stretch singles into doubles. Moreover, the Cubs lineup is dominated by right handers, and his left-handed bat with some power and a high OBP was sorely needed. His combination of plate discipline, speed and power should make him an excellent fit in the 2nd or 5th slot of the batting order. PECOTA projects 550 plate appearances at .289/.401/.504, with 21 HR and 81 RBI.

Fukudome is a major upgrade for the Cubs in one position, but they also expect improvement at two other positions that they intend to fill from within. They allowed the defensive liability and offensively neutered Jason Kendall to walk in order to make room for top catching prospect Geovany Soto. Soto was impressive last season in his September call-up even though he had only 16 starts. Geovany had a stellar season in AAA and carried that success with him to the big league level where he showed plate discipline and the ability to drive in runs and hit for power. His defensive skills and his arm are well above average and offensively in 54 major league AB he had a line of .389/.433/.667. He looks poised to have a break-out season.

The other open position, still up for grabs, is center field. Felix Pie will be given the first opportunity to take over the reins at a position he could not hold last year. The 23-year-old product of the Cubs farm system has stellar defensive skills, and speed, but looked over-matched at the plate in ‘07, hitting only .215/.271/.333 in 177 AB. To succeed this season Pie must show a better command of the strike zone. He needs to cut down on a big looping lefty swing in favor of making contact, and must be more willing to sacrifice power in order to get on base. Unfortunately the Cubs brought him up through the minors as a #3 hitter when he is clearly not ever going to be a #3 in the Majors. They made the same mistake with Corey Patterson and he was either unwilling or unable to make the adjustment to being a table setter. Expect Pie to continue to languish at the plate if placed in the 8th slot which is where he likely will bat in the current projected lineup. It would serve Pie better to spend another year in AAA trying to adjust his approach at the plate.

The other top contender for the job in center is the Arizona Fall League MVP, Sam Fuld. Fuld is nearly as good a fielder as Pie and has shown that he is actually more advanced at the plate. Even if he doesn’t win the job in center, expect him to stick around as a 4th outfielder. Another avenue the Cubs are rumored to be pursuing is possibly dealing starting pitcher Jason Marquis to Boston for Coco Crisp. If the Cubs can pull it off, this would probably be the best option available, since Crisp is a proven major-league quality centerfielder, and the Cubs consider Marquis expendable due to the free agent signing of Jon Lieber and the moving of closer Ryan Dempster into the starting rotation.

The Cubs appear to have a solid pitching staff on the whole. They had the 2nd best ERA in the NL last season, led the league in strike outs, and were the most difficult NL team to manufacture runs against. Their top 3 starters, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill, are certainly capable of combining for at least 45 wins. It’s most likely that Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster will fill in the final two slots with youngsters Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart having outside chances. They don’t want to put Dempster back in the bullpen, even though in his career he is below .500 as a starter, and there was no point in acquiring Lieber if they did not intend to use him in the starting rotation. But placing much confidence in Lieber’s ability to stay healthy seems unwise due to his propensity for injury over the last 6 seasons. Since 2001, when he was the Cubs’ last 20-game winner, he has pitched over 200 innings only once and that was back in 2005. Still, at only one year and $3.5 million, the Lieber signing is not a huge gamble and, should he come up lame, they do have numerous young arms that could fill the slot.

What does make the Lieber signing rather curious, however, is that they refused to offer this same deal to Mark Prior, who has also been injury-plagued but is only 27 and has more upside than a 38-year-old Lieber. Prior has only made 57 starts in the last 4 seasons and hasn’t shown signs of the brilliance he possessed in 2003 when he won 18 games. But I would’ve rather seen them gamble on the younger player who has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy. When Prior balked at agreeing to a club option for a second year on the one year offer, the Cubs finally threw in the towel on one of the most heralded draft picks in franchise history.

So Prior no longer figures into the Cubs future, but they did re-sign oft-injured former phenom Kerry Wood to a one-year deal. Moving Dempster out of the closer role creates an opportunity for Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol, or Wood to win the position in spring training. Woody seems the least likely to win the role in spite of being the hardest thrower. He has always had a propensity to walk batters and it’s uncertain if his arm can withstand working 2 or 3 consecutive days. Last season, Manager Lou Piniella tended to avoid using Wood in situations when the game was still in contention.

Carlos Marmol, possessor of the devastating slider and no doubt the closer of the future, may not yet be ready to move into the closer’s slot. While it is true that last season he had the 2nd lowest ERA (1.43) of all NL relief pitchers, and held batters to the 2nd lowest batting average (.169), the 25-year-old has not had the experience of facing the pressure of even a single major league save opportunity. Lou said last season that he liked having the flexibility of being able to bring Marmol into the game in the 6th, 7th or 8th when close games hung in the balance. He stranded inherited runners 87.8% of the time, which was better than all other NL relievers. Due to Marmol’s inexperience it is most likely they will start the season with veteran Bobby Howry in the closer role. Howry has done it before and it may benefit the club to ease the younger player into the role later on in the season if Howry falters.

In other bullpen moves the Cubs avoided salary arbitration with middle reliever Michael Wuertz by signing him to a one-year, $860,000 deal. The hard throwing right-hander was a solid contributor in ‘07 with a 3.48 ERA and stranded 86.8% of inherited runners, second in the NL to teammate Marmol. Neil Cotts was also resigned to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. He has a live arm but may return to the minors if he can’t regain the control that gave him the success he had in ‘05 with the White Sox. In a move with a lot of upside, Hendry dealt left hander Wil Ohman and utility man Omar Infante to Atlanta for Jose Ascanio, who has a 95+ mph fast ball and will likely begin the year at AA. Rule 5 draft pick-up Tim Lahey could also bolster their bullpen depth. These moves could serve dividends down the road and the Cubs have added young depth. Overall, I would say the pitching staff is slightly upgraded from last season, but more should have been done.

This offseason, the Cubs have made several moves that have improved their ballclub. It is still possible that they will attempt to bring in lead-off man and second baseman Brian Roberts, which would improve their lineup even more. That move would allow them to move Soriano and his strike outs down in the order and free up Mark DeRosa to fill the utility role which best suits him. But even if they are able to pry Peter Angelos’ pet out of Baltimore it probably won’t be a move that helps them capture the NL pennant. Their best chance of ending the centennial suckfest would be to acquire another top of the rotation pitcher. My prediction is wait ’til next year.

Offseason Grade: B

Additions: RF Kosuke Fukudome, SP Jon Lieber, RP Jose Ascanio, RP Tim Lahey, SS Alex Cintron, RP Chad Fox, RP Shingo Takatsu

Losses: OF Jacque Jones, C Jason Kendall, SP Mark Prior, RP Wil Ohman, OF Angel Pagan, OF Omar Infante

Projected Lineup, Rotation and Closer:

LF Alfonso Soriano – .299/.337/.560, 33 HR

SS Ryan Theriot – .266/.326/.346, 3 HR

1B Derrek Lee – .317/.400/.513, 22 HR

3B Aramis Ramirez – .310/.366/.549, 26 HR

RF Kosuke Fukudome – .294/.443/.520, 13 HR (Japan in 81 games)

2B Mark DeRosa – .293/.371/.420, 10 HR

C Geovany Soto – .389/.433/.667, 3 HR, 54 AB

CF Felix Pie – .215/.271/.333, 9HR

RHP – Carlos Zambrano – 18-13, 3.95 ERA

LHP – Ted Lilly – 15-8, 3.83 ERA

LHP – Rich Hill – 11-8, 3.92 ERA

RHP – Jon Lieber – 3-6, 4.73 ERA

RHP – Ryan Dempster – 2-7, 4.73 ERA, 28 SV

CL – Bobby Howry 8 SV, 3.32 ERA

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Because I’m guessing they are not racist, right-wing Japanese ultranationalists.

You’d have to be one or the other to build an entire ad campaign around a symbol that is deeply offensive to millions of people across Asia:

Sure, maybe a lot of those Asians don’t care about baseball, or the Cubs but isn’t this still kind of a bad idea? I mean, I don’t know if 85-year old Eastern European Jews care much about baseball either, but would you build a marketing campaign around the Nazi swastika flag?

What’s more amazing than the fact that this ad campaign even exists is the way the Cubs are so blithely hyping it on their official website. In an article on Cubs.com entitled “Cubs unleash bold, new ad campaign: Promotions international in scope with dash of local flavor,” there is clearly no understanding whatsoever that this image might at all be offensive:

CHICAGO–Kosuke Fukudome is among the players featured in a new ad campaign unveiled on Tuesday designed to showcase the international breadth and depth of the Cubs.

A graphic red, white and blue image of the Japanese outfielder that includes a rising sun includes the statement, “I don’t need an interpreter. My bat does the talking.”

The campaign focuses on individual players with a bold treatment using elements from each player’s unique background. Ads featuring Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano will use a portion of the Dominican Republic flag as a background…. There also is an ad with pitcher Kerry Wood that will feature the Texas flag.

….

“It’s a very international campaign. Yet the red, white and blue also makes it very Cub,” said Scott Maney, president and executive creative director of Jones, which is based in the River North section of Chicago and the company behind the creation of the ads.

….

“Most of the time, advertising has to work pretty hard to lift a brand up,” Maney said. “But with the Cubs, the opposite is true. The brand is already so sacred, the advertising has to work extremely hard just to keep up. It has to earn the right to represent the Cubs.”

This is the kind of ad that will “earn the right to represent the Cubs”? This cheery article gets posted on the Cubs’ official site, including a picture of the Fukudome ad? And the ad has already been printed in several Chicago area newspapers? It boggles the mind to think of the number of people in the Cubs’ front office who must have had to green light this ad for it to get so far.

Clearly the Cubs have no idea what kind of campaign they have “unleashed.”

But what surprises me most of all is the reaction so far to this ad campaign, which makes me wonder, if only for a moment, whether I am giving the Cubs too hard a time. While plenty of people were shocked by the ads, there also seems to be a large number of people who think that it is not a big deal. Witness a representative comment to the post that first broke this story on the blog “On 205th”:

“Much ado about basically nothing. I would be shocked if anyone besides bloggers are “offended” by this image. For a country that sure loves to parade the image of our flag around, it is ironic that some of its citizens would get their panties in a bunch over this.”

Or this one:

“Given the craptacular diplomatic performance of our current administration could the same not be said of the American Flag?

Hell, that thing is all over the place in MLB.”

There seems to be an erroneous assumption here that this image is simply the Japanese national flag, equivalent to our own American flag, so what’s the big deal? Which means it’s time for a little history lesson…

So there are two flags which were used by the Japanese at various times in the 20th century:

The flag on the top is the current national flag of Japan. The flag on the bottom, however, is not. Rather, it was the battle flag of the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy during World War II and earlier Japanese wars. This was the flag that was raised over Nanking, that flew over “comfort” stations, that was saluted by Unit 731. It was the flag of Japanese militarism.

Anyone who has been in Asia for any length of time will recognized why the second flag is so offensive. There is a reason why extreme right-wing ultranationalists in Japan make a point of marching around carrying this flag and not the regular Japanese flag when they protest in favor of restoring Japanese military might. There is a reason why many Chinese and Koreans fly into a rage at the mere sight of this flag. There is a reason why the Japanese government itself never used this flag at all for more than 50 years after World War II, until some right-wing politicians made a political statement by passing a law in 1999 “rehabilitating” the flag as a national symbol, although it is still almost never actually used.

And then there is our good friend Jay Mariotti of the Chicago-Sun times, who writes a piece today calling for people to have some “perspective,” and asking us to “remember that World War II ended in September of 1945. A month later, the Cubs played in their most recent World Series. We’re talking a long, long time ago, maybe too long to get worked up over what’s supposed to be a proud showcase of the new right fielder.”

Yeah, and the Holocaust was a long time ago too.

World War II in Europe killed 40 million people. The War in Asia killed 30 million people. The only difference between the armies that bore the swastika on their flags and the armies that bore the sunburst was that the armies with the swastikas killed some more people. But we are still talking tens of millions of people killed.

So either symbol would be an absolutely moronic image to use in your “proud showcase of your new rightfielder,” let alone tout on your official website or run in actual print newspapers, no matter how long ago those atrocities were.

No, it’s not pronounced Foo-koo-dohm. But everyone else seemed to be cashing in on the joke and I wanted a piece.

Speaking of cashing in (awkward segue of the day!), Kosuke Fukudome is officially a Chicago Cub. Last night, it was announced that he signed a 4-year $48 million deal to patrol the outfield grass of Wrigley Field. Umpbump has already done a small analysis of Fukudome’s numbers in Japan but here’s a quick recap:

• Best offensive skill is plate discipline.
• Will whiff on his share of third strikes, but makes very solid contact when he does connect.
• Currently has the range to play centerfield, but at 31-years old, his skills will inevitably diminish in that department. May as well put him in one of the corner spots.
• A fair expectation is an OPS around .830 (.370 OBP, .460 SLG). Not a star, but a very solid MLB outfielder.

Considering the money that both Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter received this offseason, we shouldn’t be too surprised to hear that Fukudome is getting $12 million per year for four. I anticipated at least a $40 million deal and that was before the outfield market was set by the Anaheim-Hunter contract. So I can’t really fault the Cubs for going so high.

The positive here is that Fukudome gives the Cubs something they sorely needed – a guy who could get on base. With Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano in the lineup, Chicago has some pop (they just couldn’t keep all 3 on the field in 2007). But they often came to bat with the bases clear. The four guys who most often occupied the top two spots in the batting order (Soriano, Ryan Theriot, Jacque Jones, and Mike Fontenot) simply couldn’t fill these roles. In fact, none of them had an OBP higher than .337, which helps account for why the Cubs ranked in the bottom half in MLB in that category. As a team, they walked only 500 times in 2007, which was 26th out of the 30 clubs. If Sweet Lou pencils in Fukudome’s name in the #2 slot, the big bats ought to see some more RBI opportunities.

But here’s the negative from my perspective, which is one that I imagine most Cubs fans will disagree with. I’ve expressed support for Matt “Big Red” Murton in the past, primarily because he would help Chicago in the OBP department. While I think that Fukudome is a superior player, to me, these two guys are rather similar. Neither should be expected to hit 30 homeruns because, simply, it’s not who they are. But utilized well, they’ll more than make up for their lack of power. So the question becomes, is Kosuke Fukudome worth $48 million more than Murton? I’m not so sure about that.

I should give the Cubs some credit here for improving during an offseason that’s looking difficult for anyone to do so. If they can keep Lee, Ramirez and Soriano on the field, they certainly have a chance to repeat as division champs, and Fukudome will help.

Hector Lavoe, the great Puerto Rican salsa crooner once sang “your love is like yesterday’s news,” (Tu amor es como un periódico de ayer) and in this day and age, yesterday’s news (actually, this past monday’s news) should seem like a teenage fling to the middle-aged White Sox GM, Kenny Williams.

You see, right after trading for Orlando Cabrera, Williams was on the verge of landing Torri Hunter. The Sun-Times “broke” a story last Monday that reported:

Sources both in the Sox organization and the camp of free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter have told the Sun-Times that the two sides could be signing a contract within the week.

In other words, while it appeared Williams was playing checkers in the Garland for Cabrera deal, he was actually playing chess, staying moves ahead of the game.

Before I try to offer my opinion on the “reporter” with some dry, witty, sarcastic remark, lets remember that the reporter in question is Joe Cowley, who once famously voted Derek Jeter 6th in his MVP ballot, contributing to Morneau getting the trophy, with Jeter not far back in the polls.

Let’s just say I will think twice next time I read something penned by Cowley.

We now know, of course, that the Angels had their finger on the dial right after hanging up the trade-talk phone with the ChiSox. And were that much quicker. And those chess moves that Williams was so erroneously praised for, might actually have him in check.

Without Hunter, Williams’ center field options in the free agent market are reduced to Andruw Jones and former South-sider Aaron Rowand – and Sox fans are torn.

Personally, I can’t ignore Jones’ horrendous season this year and I cannot possibly imagine Rowand commanding less than $75 million over 4 years. However legendary his status among Sox fans is, I doubt Rowand is really worth that much.

Let’s think about this for a minute. It’s rumored that the Angels beat out Williams by $20 mill. Which means he had offered a 4-year/$70 deal. I doubt he offered a 5th year; Williams favorite flavor in contracts is of the 3-year-kind. And now that the Sox shelled $19 mil per 4 years for Scott Linebrink, I can only assume Williams decided to spend some his CF money on relief pitching.

In reality Williams has a few more options. There’s always Kosuke Fukudome, who, according to UmpBump’s very own Paul Moro, will command around $10 mill over 4 years. (Considering Hunter’s inflated price tag, Fuku’s price tag suddenly jumped to about $30mill/4years.

And then there are the prospects. For the past four years, the White Sox have had promising outfield prospects that fizzled once they made it to the majors.

Consider this: Last time the White Sox signed a Japanese player (Iguchi in ‘05), they won the World Series. Last time they failed to move their underachieving outfielders and/or upgrade via free-agency, well, this season happened.

Williams has already released World Series hero Scott Podsednik. Can I pull a Joe Cowley and say he’ll go after Fukudome instead of Jones/Rowand?

Only time can tell.

By now, you’ve probably at least heard of Kosuke Fukudome (pronounced Koh-su-kay Fuku-doh-may), the lefty-hitting Japanese outfielder who will by all accounts be making his way stateside this offseason. No one can yet knowingly guess where he will end up exactly, but it’s probably safe to say that he’s bound to be playing for a club with a big payroll. While potential suitors won’t have to go through the posting system to land him (he’s a free agent), he’s still expected to come with the price tag of at least $10 million for four years.

But will he be worth the investment? Let’s take a look see.

To help frame the conversation, here’s a chart that lists the Japanese positional players who have made their way stateside, and their career numbers while playing in Japan. I refrained from presenting stats like HR and RBI because they don’t really translate well to yearly averages:

Fukudome turns 31 in late April of 2008, so he’s certainly no “prospect”.  It’s difficult to compare him with any other Japanese player with MLB experience because no one seems to fit his profile. His bat control is not nearly at Ichiro’s level and won’t match Hideki Matsui for power. Although he can surprise you with a stolen base now and again, that’s never been his game either. So what makes him special? Pretty much everything else.

Defensively, Fukudome has earned a reputation as among the country’s best, with the range of a centerfielder to go along with a strong arm. My guess here is that he will be a corner outfielder in the States due to his age. Fukudome is also among the best at getting on base, posting OBPs above .400 in five of the last six seasons, which bodes very well for him because this seems to be a skill that transfers rather well. He has cleared the 30HR-mark twice in his nine-year career, which probably means that he’ll top out around 20 in MLB. As I mentioned earlier, his bat control leaves something to be desired, but his patience and his ability to make some very solid contact consistently make him an offensive threat. In fact, Fukudome is in Ichiro’s league when it comes to making solid contact (although Ichiro’s bat control is far superior). It’s a safe bet that he’ll strike out around 110 times in a full season,  but he may have the skills to bat .280 or better. If he can adjust to the new strike zone, he should also have a very strong OBP in the .370 range to go along with “gap power” (think a slugging pct around .460). When you factor in a strong defense, an OPS of .830 is certainly not bad at all.  I think that a good comparison would be the very underrated Ryan Church.

But you’d have to wonder – is an .830 OPS with good defense and limited speed worth $40 million? In a market where Eric Byrnes can earn $30m/3, it’s quite possible. There are several teams looking for outfield help, and the allure of extra income from Japanese fans make it very likely that he’ll get this money and possibly much more.

(NOTE: Can we please end the habit of listing Shinjo among Japan’s top players who failed in America? He never was a “top player”. Look at his OBP. Embarrassing.)