The Marlins finished in second place in 2009, but the reality is they only scored 6 more runs than they allowed and the third-place Braves had a much better run differential. So Florida will have to improve more than a little if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot in 2010.

Offense isn’t a big problem for the Fish. In 2009, the Marlins scored more runs than every NL team except for the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers and Rockies. But run prevention was a weakness. Division rivals Atlanta and Philadelphia allowed fewer runs.

As usual, the Marlins will insist on spending the bare minimum. Fortunately, improving this team shouldn’t cost much.

The biggest thing Florida can do to improve in 2010 is take Emilio Bonifacio, strap him to a rocket, and shoot him into space. Florida’s insistence on starting Bonifacio at third base and batting him leadoff for much of 2009 cost the team valuable runs. That can’t happen again.

Unfortunately, it might happen again. In his column today, Peter Gammons suggested that the Marlins will probably play Bonifacio at second base in 2010 (after they trade incumbent 2B Dan Uggla to shed payroll):

But if Emilio Bonifacio can play second base and improve his .303 on-base percentage, the Marlins pretty much know who and what they are going to be in 2010.

Bonifacio at second isn’t nearly as great a sin as Bonifacio at third, which is a position where teams generally field a player who contributes power and OBP. But Bonifacio, even if he proves to be a decent defender, should never again be allowed to bat leadoff. Never. Again.

If the Marlins are smart and get rid of Bonifacio altogether, that’ll open up holes at first base and third (assuming free agent 1B Nick Johnson signs elsewhere). Jorge Cantu can plug one of those holes — most likely third base. He’s no Brooks Robinson. Far, far from it. UZR hates Cantu at third. But he’s got decent pop and he’s relatively cheap and he’s in what should be his prime, and because of his defensive struggles he’s got little trade value. So he’ll have to do.

At first base, Gaby Sanchez should be given a shot at the big time after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A. Logan Morrison is probably another year or two away, but could be ready by midseason.

With Uggla on his way out and Bonifacio an unappealing option, rookie of the year Chris Coghlan is another guy to consider at second base. At least, I think he can play second base. He played there in the minor leagues. If he could handle the position in 2010 that would be really great for the Fish. If he can’t, I suppose Florida could put him back in left field, though he wasn’t particularly good there last season. Actually, let me rephrase that. He was particularly bad in left last season. Bill James says he was the 34th best LF in the game, and he cost his team 16 runs, compared to the average left fielder. In fairness, Coghlan had never played the outfield before last season, and he’s likely improve in 2010, given the chance. But he’d have to improve a lot to justify running him out there again.

Florida is set with Camerin Maybin in CF and Cody Ross in one of the corner spots. The Fish are said to be in the market for another corner outfielder (again assuming Coghlan moves to the infield), and presumably Matt Holliday isn’t an option. But there are a couple of free agents out there who might be lured by the prospect of an everyday gig. Maybe Randy Winn, Eric Hinske or Coco Crisp?

As for Florida’s pitching, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are an incredibly solid 1-2 punch. Chris Volstad wasn’t good in 2009, but the 23-year-old groundball pitcher has a good shot at improving in 2010 if he can just surrender a few fewer flyballs. Even if Volstad doesn’t improve his flyball percentage this season, it’s unlikely he’ll once again give up homers at a 17.5% clip.

Andrew Miller, Sean West and Anibal Sanchez can fight it out for the final two rotation spots, and Florida would be wise to pick up a veteran SP to push the youngsters and give Florida one more option for the rotation. Doug Davis or Carl Pavano would be nice pick-ups, if the price were right. And let’s face it, in order for Florida to sign anyone, the price will have to be right.

Conclusion: I’d love to see Florida sign Crisp, who would do a lot to bolster the team’s defense. An outfield of Crisp, Maybin and Ross would be a defensive juggernaut. The real questions are 1. Can Coghlan play second base? 2. Can Cantu provide close to average defense at third? 3. Can Josh Johnson stay healthy? and 4. Can Sanchez hit big league pitching?

That’s a lot of questions, and I’m sure I forgot a few. A lot would have to go right for the Marlins to compete in 2010. But this is a young team, and young teams can sometimes surprise us.

What They Need Index

Leave it to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. While all the other baseball hacks are reporting on boring stuff that nobody cares about (trades, signings, the crappiness of the O’Hare Hilton), he’s bringing us the good stuff.

From Crasnick’s Twitter:

In other news .. San Diego OF Kyle Blanks just became the 5th player to get the Matt Sosnick-Paul Cobbe company logo tattooed onto his arm.

and…

“License to Deal” trivia: The other Sosnick-Cobbe tattoo guys are Jon and Jason Pridie, Tigers P Zach Simons and Dontrelle Willis.

That’s right, Matt Sosnick and Paul Cobbe have five (out of 33) Major League clients who have agreed to get their agency’s logo tattooed on them (logo shown in upper right).

Well, actually, John Pridie is no longer a client. He joined the Sosnick-Cobbe team a few years ago as an agent.

I think one of two things is going on here. Either Sosnick and Cobbe are the greatest guys/agents in the whole world and their clients were dying for a way to express their gratitude, or these tattooed players totally misunderstood when Sosnick and Cobbe talked to them about the importance of branding.

Jayson Stark doesn’t think the Philies should sign Chone Figgins because Figgins is a leadoff hitter and the Phillies already have a leadoff hitter.

From ESPN.com:

“What happens if they try to install Figgins in the leadoff hole? That has the potential to create a gigantic problem because they’d have to sell it to their current leadoff man, some guy named Jimmy Rollins. And that won’t be easy. So to me Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Placido Polanco are much better fits for them, depending on the asking price.”

Rollins had a .296 OBP in 2009, which was the third lowest in the National League, behind only Clint Barmes and Bengie Molina. Because he still has some power and speed, Rollins isn’t a total loss offensively. But leadoff hitters are supposed to get on base and score runs, and because of Rollins’ inability to get on base he’s a terrible fit for the leadoff spot.

Granted, the Phils have been to two consecutive World Series with Rollins batting leadoff, but I think it’s safe to say that in 2009 the Phils succeeded despite Rollins offense (which Fangraphs says was worh -10 runs), not because of it. In fact, whether or not the Phillies sign Figgins, Rollins shouldn’t bat leadoff in 2010. Shane Victorino would be a much better candidate.

I’m of the belief that if your team is using a guy with a sub-.310 OBP in the leadoff spot, somebody should be fired. Probably the manager. Maybe the GM. Possibly both. But I must be in the minority because last season, of the 10 guys with the lowest OBPs in the NL, three of them (Rollins, Guzman and Soriano) batted leadoff most of the year, and one of them (Bonifacio) batted leadoff for nearly half the season.

You’ll hear a lot of Philly fans bitch about Charlie Manuel’s allegiance to closer Brad Lidge, but his willingness to stick with Rollins at the leadoff spot is an equally great crime.

As a Phillies fan, the Braves’ rotation is keeping me up at night. Derek Lowe. Tim Hudson (who just signed a three-year deal). Jair Jurrjens. Tommy Hanson. Javier Vazquez. Good god almighty, that is a solid five.

Oh, and don’t forget about Kenshin Kawakami, who posted a 3.86 ERA in 2009 and is under contract for another two seasons. He’s a pretty decent insurance plan.

Suffice it to say, Atlanta doesn’t need to worry about their starting pitching. What they do need to worry about is first base. And left field. And right field. And the bullpen. And Chipper Jones’ fragile, quickly deteriorating body.

Last season it took Atlanta a few months to figure out a lineup that could score runs. Once they realized Martin Prado was the answer at second base, and replaced Jordan Schaffer with Nate McLouth and Jeff Francoeur with Ryan Church, they were cooking with gas.

They also traded for Adam LaRoche, who provided his usual second-half fireworks. But now LaRoche is a free agent, and Atlanta is faced with the option of re-signing him and enduring his usual first-half craptitude, or pursuing another option. LaRoche’s first-half/second-half splits are real. His first-half OPS: .773. His second-half OPS: .909. Rather than bringing him back, a better plan would be moving Chipper Jones to first base. Jones’ defense appears to be slipping, but his bat is still potent. At first base he’d be more likely to stay healthy and he’d cost the team fewer runs on defense.

Who would play third if Chipper moved to first? Pedro Feliz will likely be available and nobody has a stronger, more accurate arm. Other free agents include Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa, but those guys will likely prove too expensive for the cash-strapped Braves. Melvin Mora and Placido Polanco are other options.

Last season, Matt Diaz played a big chunk of games in left field and did quite well. But Diaz is traditionally poor against righties and the Braves might want to keep him in a platoon. Fortunately, Atlanta has Ryan Church, who hits righties OK enough (.280/.353/.460). Diaz and Church can split time in left field, while rookie Jason Heyward can play right field if he makes the team out of spring training. Rob Neyer says, “Heyward’s first time in Double-A came this summer, when he was just turning 20. In 47 games he struck out 19 times, drew 28 walks, and posted a .446 on-base percentage.” So he’s going to be good. If Heyward needs some more minor league seasoning, Diaz/Church could shift to right field and the Braves could sign a free agent or trade for a left fielder. The AJC’s Dave O’Brien says not to dismiss rumors that Atlanta might trade for Florida 2B Dan Uggla and shift him to LF. I’m not sure I endorse that idea, but it’s one option.

Finally, we’ve got the bullpen. Between them, the Braves’ dual closers had as many blown saves in 2009 as Brad Lidge. That’s not good. On the other hand, their combined ERAs were still more than a run lower than Lidge’s. So let’s not go crazy bashing them. Mike Gonzalez walked a few too many batters, but mostly he and Rafael Soriano were just a little unlucky. The Braves paid them a total of about $10MM in 2009, and if they can sign them to similar deals in 2010 they should bring them back. Otherswise, there are plenty of free agent bullpen arms out there.

Ultimately, that’s all Atlanta needs. Shift Chipper to first and sign Feliz and you improve your infield defense. Create a Diaz/Church platoon, and you’ve improved over last year’s Diaz/Garrett Anderson platoon. Uggla/Heyward/Anyone-else in the other corner outfield spot is better than Jeff Francoeur, last year’s starting right fielder. A full season of Prado will be an improvement over a Kelly Johnson/Prado split.

The rumor is the Braves are going to trade one of their pitchers, most likely Lowe, Vazquez or Kawakami, to reduce payroll and land a left fielder with pop. I think the team should hang onto it’s pitching depth. They’re not the Giants. They’re not desperate for offense. They were fifth in OBP last season, sixth in wOBP, and fifth in runs scored. As for the team’s payroll situation, I’m not an accountant, but I don’t think my plan, which calls for signing one free agent position player (Feliz) and a couple of bullpen arms, is too extravagent.

- What They Need Index -

Obviously, the Phillies are no fluke. And it’s temping to suggest that they should stand pat this offseason. After all, all the team’s best players are under contract for next season, and the rotation figures to be strong, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer returning, and minor league prospect Kyle Drabek waiting for a chance at the big time.

But, as Rob Neyer says, “Baseball teams are like sharks: If they’re not moving forward, they’re dying.” The Phillies and GM Ruben Amaro seem to understand this. After all, Amaro’s big move last winter was signing Raul Ibanez and letting Pat Burrell walk. Is there any doubt that swapping Burrell for Ibanez was the difference between the Phils winning the east and sitting at home in October? Ibanez was worth 4.2 wins above replacement in 2009, while Burrell was worth -0.6, and would have been worth even less if the Rays had allowed him to play left field.

This offseason, the Phils have already made waves by cutting ties with SP/RP Brett Myers (due to excess douchiness) and announcing that they are looking to upgrade at third base.

Do the Phillies need to upgrade at 3B? No. Pedro Feliz’s outstanding defense makes him a valuable guy. But the Phils’ front office apparently can no longer stomach his craptastic hitting, and that’s understandable. So what are the options?

From MLB Trade Rumors:

There are several third base options on the free agent market that could pique Amaro’s interest. Both Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins would represent a significant offensive upgrade at the position, and according to UZR/150, they’d even provide a defensive boost over Feliz’s already sterling glovework.

Figgins would be a great addition to the Phils, as he would add even more speed to the lineup and could supplant Jimmy Rollins as the team’s leadoff hitter. And whether or not Figgins comes to Philly, the Fightins need a new leadoff hitter. It is no longer tenable to allow a guy with a sub-.300 OBP to leadoff.

Beltre would likely provide a more cost-effective solution at third, as he is coming off an injury plagued 2009. But while Beltre would bring more power, he’d be another OBP-suck (though not as bad as Feliz or Rollins), while Figgins OBP has steadily improved each of the past few seasons.

Outside of 3B, the Phils need to figure out Brad Lidge and the rest of the bullpen. Neyer put this pretty succinctly in a recent post:

The Phillies won 93 games this year. Brad Lidge blew 11 saves and lost eight games. The key ingredient in another 93-win recipe is a closer who instead blows five saves and loses four games. Those guys are out there, and they don’t all cost a great deal of money. Ruben Amaro isn’t likely to get super-creative this winter; general managers of pennant-winning teams rarely do. But he just has to be creative enough to find a couple of dependable relief pitchers. Which is one of the easiest things in professional sports.

Conclusion: Figgins would be a great addition, but will likely cost too much. If the Phils don’t land him they should sign Beltre or bring back Feliz, and turn their attention to improving the bullpen and adding a couple of decent bench players (Eric Bruntlett, you are the weakest link). And they should shift Shane Victorino into the leadoff spot and bat Rollins second. Or ninth. Whatever.

What They Need Index

Here we go again. Time for another edition of our semi-annual “What They Need” series, where we play GM for all 30 teams. As usual, we’ll be suggesting subtle tweaks for some squads, and major overhalls for others. There’s already movement going on in the Hot Stove front, so there’s no time to waste!

Here’s a helpful tip: this post will serve as an index for the series, so you may want to bookmark it.

On to the posts!

November 19 — Florida Marlins

November 16 – Minnesota Twins

November 16 – Los Angeles Dodgers

November 15 – Boston Red Sox

November 14 – Seattle Mariners

November 12 – Atlanta Braves

November 10 – New York Yankees

November 9 – San Francisco Giants

November 8 – Philadelphia Phillies

So the Phillies are letting Brett Myers walk, and you can feel pretty confident that the biggest reason he’s not sticking around is he was a giant pain in the ass during his Philly tenure.

But let’s give credit where credit is due. Myers’ parting words were classy:

“I was just like, `OK, thanks for putting up with my (stuff),’ ‘’ Myers said. “He thanked me and wished me and my family well.

“I’ll miss the guys on the team and the fans who have supported me. Hopefully I’ll be playing against the Phillies and when I do I want the roughest treatment the fans can give me – when I’m pitching. I’m an opposing player – you have to give it to me.’’

Don’t worry, Brett. We’ll boo your ass. But you saved an NLDS, so we’ll refrain from throwing any batteries.

So here’s the deal: Today the New York Post Daily News ran this gossip item and I know it’s last minute, but it’s Halloween and if nobody shows up to Citizen’s Bank Park dressed as half-A-Rod-half-horse, then we Phillies fans have dropped the ball.

Honestly, if anybody else commissioned a portrait of himself as a centaur, I’d say, “that guy is awesome. I want to have a beer with him and vote for him for president.” But we all know A-Rod has no sense of humor. So this is just kind of…weird. Still funny, but I’m pretty sure I’m laughing at him and not with him.