This just doesn’t happen. Teams just don’t go from 96 losses one year to 97 wins the next. One of the worst defenses in baseball history doesn’t become one of the five best in the league over one offseasons. Teams that were 200-1 to win the pennant before the year begins really aren’t supposed to be playing in the ALCS seven months later.

But for one ridiculous summer, all of those things did happen. The Rays are four games away from the AL title, and, thanks to home-field advantage and outstanding run prevention, they’ve actually got a pretty good chance of winning the damn thing.

Still, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. These are the Rays we’re talking about here. And though they’re much improved, they’re still vulnerable. Here are three ways the Red Sox can win:

1. Avoid the big hit. Despite having an above average OPS of .762, the Rays were last in the AL in BA with runners in scoring position. Performing worse in those situations than you do overall isn’t thought to be sustainable; this, and the fact that everybody is finally healthy, means that Tampa’s offense has the potential to be significantly better in the ALCS than they have been thus far this year. But if the Red Sox can find a way to keep the Rays from finding the clutch they’ll be in good shape.
2. Get to Kazmir early. The 24-year old lefty got off to a rocky start in his playoff debut, loading the bases with nobody out in Game 2 of the ALDS against Chicago. He ended up allowing two runs in that inning, and none the rest of the way. There’s no doubt that Kazmir has the potential to be dominant; in his career, he’s averaged over a strikeout per inning. But he’s going to have to get off to a good start against an excellent Red Sox lineup, and get the ball over the plate so he can pitch as deep into the game as possible.
3. Make the right choice in Game 4. Admittedly, I don’t even know the answer to this one. But because of the absurd number of off days, each remaining team has the option of bringing their ace back on short rest in the fourth game, and then having him available on full rest in Game 7. If the Sox are down, Francona is going to have a tough decision on his hands; Dice-K is obviously better than Wakefield, the other option in that game, and he does have legendary stamina. Wakefield, on the other hand, gave up 7 runs, 0 runs, 6 runs and 4 runs in his last four starts of the season, and you just never know if that knuckler is going to be knuckling.

This post was written by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller, who writes the blog Vegas Watch and recently began contributing to Fan House. He’s actually an Indians fan, but has been following the Rays this season for the best possible reason — he bet on them to win.

What happened to the Cubs this season? Guest author Melissa Rakestraw takes us from heady summer days to autumn nights chilly with defeat, and, as a bonus, ranks the three worst heartbreaks in recent Cubbies history.

The 2008 Chicago Cubs, 97-64, NL Central Division Champs. It was not much of a surprise to me to see this team win the division. I certainly did expect them to win their division; but that doesn’t mean I didn’t appreciate the manner in which they were able to do it. There is no question that this season was the best summer of baseball I have seen a Cubs team produce. They entertained their fans, winning more home games than any other team in the NL, and looked good doing it. There were many great games and moments in those games I won’t forget.

Opening day at Wrigley Field, the Cubs main off-season acquisition, Kosuke Fukudome, hit a 3-run homer in the bottom of the ninth off of the Brewers’ Eric Gagne to tie the game and send it to extra innings. It didn’t end in a Cubs victory that day, but it was an impressive debut for the Japanese rookie and a moment that I was able to witness first hand.

Jim Edmonds, the former Cardinal, winning over the hearts of Cubs fans on June 12 with a game-tying homer in the bottom of the ninth against Atlanta, to send the game to extras, leading to an eventual Cubs’ win. Aramis Ramirez with a walk-off solo home run against the White Sox to give the Cubs a 3-2 win. The Cubs scoring 8 runs in one inning against those same White Sox, with Jimmy Ballgame providing 2 home runs in that outburst. The Cubs coming back from a 9-1 deficit to beat the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley. The Cubs’ 4-game sweep of the Brewers at the end of July up in Milwaukee, effectively sealing their fate as division champs.

Ted Lilly running through Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina at home plate attempting to score at Busch Stadium. He was out, but his effort seemed to symbolize the Cubs’ resolve to not let anyone or anything stand in their way.

The Cubs won that game as well. Geovany Soto, the rookie catcher, hitting a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 9th against the Brewers. The Crew had led 6-2 entering that inning and the Cubs went on to eventually win that game in extras as well. September 20, Wrigley Field, the Cubs beat the Cardinals to clinch the NL Central. Cubs players returned to the field after the final out and celebrated with the fans singing the chorus to “Go Cubs Go.” It was the first time since 1908 that the Cubs had won back-to-back division titles. Lastly, I won’t forget Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitter, thrown against the Houston Astros in the Brewers’ Miller Park. It was a dominating performance by Big Z and the first no-hitter thrown by a Cub since Milt Pappas in 1972.

These are just some of the best memories that I have from a season filled with great moments. There is no way that 3 games in October will erase them. Those were the games that made fans fall in love with this team. Of course, when you fall in love with someone or something, you always set yourself up for possible heartbreak — and unfortunately, this season ended in more heartbreak for Cubs fans.
I will admit that at the start of the season I didn’t think the Cubs were headed for the World Series, but after witnessing such a great performance all season long I thought they had a legitimate shot at getting there — and maybe even winning it all.

With Zambrano, the acquisition of Rich Harden, and the incredible 17-win season of Ryan Dempster, I thought the Cubs had fortified the top of their rotation and put themselves in a position to win the NL pennant and beyond. I do believe the post-season is a crapshoot and I know the best team doesn’t always win a 5- or 7-game series, but I liked my guys’ chances going in. And I’ll admit that with the playoffs approaching, I started to look at things more from an emotional standpoint, wanting my team to take it all as opposed to looking at it with a logical perspective. Yet if you had told me that the Dodgers would sweep the Cubs, I would not have been shocked. Although I didn’t think it probable, I was aware it was possible. I was not shocked by the fact the Cubs were defeated, but rather the way in which they were defeated. I couldn’t help but feel disappointed by the Cubs’ sub-standard performance.

Not to take anything away from the Dodgers, but the Cubs didn’t seem to make it very difficult for them. That caught me off-guard. I watched this team battle all summer long — they were consistent throughout. When Ryan Dempster walked 7 batters in game 1, more than he had walked in any appearance all season, I was surprised. Demp was 14-3 at Wrigley this season and I thought he would give his team a chance to win. In the 5th inning, he walked 3, and with 2 out and an 0-2 count on James Loney, he gave up a grand slam. It only put the team in a 4-2 hole, but was a blow they didn’t recover from in a game that ended 7-2.

But as improbable as Dempster’s performance was in Game 1 it paled in comparison to the events that would unfold in Game 2.
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This is one of a series of posts in which we eviscerate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move. Guest author Melissa Rakestraw is a life-long Cubs fan and a first-time poster on UmpBump.com.

On October 14, 1908, the Chicago Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers to become baseball’s world champions. It was their second consecutive title; they have failed to win a championship since that time. They haven’t even won their division two years in a row since then. But despite a century of futility, expectations around this team have been elevated after their come-from-behind NL Central title last year. And after watching previously futile franchises like the Red Sox and the cross-town White Sox take titles in ‘04 and ‘05 and then seeing their arch-rival Cardinals win it all in ‘06, Cubs fans (and Ryan Demptster) are tired of the lament, “wait ’til next year,” and in 2008 ask, “Why not us?” But that may be asking too much.

On the surface, it does appear that GM Jim Hendry has improved the team enough to repeat as division champs, but will these moves provide what’s necessary to win a World Series? For those looking for signs that the Curse of the Goat is still alive and well, the advent of spring training has already seen numerous oddities arise, which include the twisted testicles of Felix Pie, the fighting cocks of Aramis Ramirez, a fractured middle finger for Alfonso Soriano, the surgically repaired heart of Mark DeRosa and a convenience store smackdown suffered by Jose Ascanio. Let’s take a look at the offseason moves of a team whose season has already gotten off to a memorable start, regardless of the final outcome…

In ‘07 the Cubs had enough talent to overcome a slow start and make a second half push to win a weak division. But once they were swept by Arizona from the divisional round of the playoffs, it was clear that they were deficient in several areas. The most glaring weakness the Cubs suffered from was the lack of a #2 starter after Carlos Zambrano. Lefties Ted Lilly and Rich Hill certainly didn’t look the part and no one acquired in the offseason can be considered able to fill this role. The Cubs would have been well served to have made an effort to acquire Eric Bedard, Dan Haren, or Joe Blanton. The addition of any of these pitchers could have made them the clear favorite in the NL.

The Cubs have a fairly deep arsenal of young pitching prospects that surely would have made them competitive bidders. Although when asked why he never made an attempt to acquire Johan Santana, Hendry claimed that Santana refused to waive his no trade clause for a team that trained outside of Florida, I find it doubtful that the Cubs would have been willing to sacrifice the prospects necessary to complete the deal. In the past they have refused to deal top prospects only to have them fizzle out on the major league level (think Corey Patterson).

Hendry did make progress in upgrading his position players by somehow managing to unload the undisciplined and unfocused Jacque Jones on Detroit for utility man Omar Infante. This move set up Hendry’s acquisition of the crown jewel of the Cubs’ offseason – Kosuke Fukudome, the former Japanese-league MVP – who signed with Chicago for $48 million over 4 years. He was the primary free agent the Cubs targeted and his strengths should bolster areas that have been known weaknesses for the club. Defensively in right field, look for him to showcase impressive fielding skills and a rocket arm. Right field bleacher fans should not be surprised when they see him hitting the cut-off man or gunning down runners attempting to stretch singles into doubles. Moreover, the Cubs lineup is dominated by right handers, and his left-handed bat with some power and a high OBP was sorely needed. His combination of plate discipline, speed and power should make him an excellent fit in the 2nd or 5th slot of the batting order. PECOTA projects 550 plate appearances at .289/.401/.504, with 21 HR and 81 RBI.

Fukudome is a major upgrade for the Cubs in one position, but they also expect improvement at two other positions that they intend to fill from within. They allowed the defensive liability and offensively neutered Jason Kendall to walk in order to make room for top catching prospect Geovany Soto. Soto was impressive last season in his September call-up even though he had only 16 starts. Geovany had a stellar season in AAA and carried that success with him to the big league level where he showed plate discipline and the ability to drive in runs and hit for power. His defensive skills and his arm are well above average and offensively in 54 major league AB he had a line of .389/.433/.667. He looks poised to have a break-out season.

The other open position, still up for grabs, is center field. Felix Pie will be given the first opportunity to take over the reins at a position he could not hold last year. The 23-year-old product of the Cubs farm system has stellar defensive skills, and speed, but looked over-matched at the plate in ‘07, hitting only .215/.271/.333 in 177 AB. To succeed this season Pie must show a better command of the strike zone. He needs to cut down on a big looping lefty swing in favor of making contact, and must be more willing to sacrifice power in order to get on base. Unfortunately the Cubs brought him up through the minors as a #3 hitter when he is clearly not ever going to be a #3 in the Majors. They made the same mistake with Corey Patterson and he was either unwilling or unable to make the adjustment to being a table setter. Expect Pie to continue to languish at the plate if placed in the 8th slot which is where he likely will bat in the current projected lineup. It would serve Pie better to spend another year in AAA trying to adjust his approach at the plate.

The other top contender for the job in center is the Arizona Fall League MVP, Sam Fuld. Fuld is nearly as good a fielder as Pie and has shown that he is actually more advanced at the plate. Even if he doesn’t win the job in center, expect him to stick around as a 4th outfielder. Another avenue the Cubs are rumored to be pursuing is possibly dealing starting pitcher Jason Marquis to Boston for Coco Crisp. If the Cubs can pull it off, this would probably be the best option available, since Crisp is a proven major-league quality centerfielder, and the Cubs consider Marquis expendable due to the free agent signing of Jon Lieber and the moving of closer Ryan Dempster into the starting rotation.

The Cubs appear to have a solid pitching staff on the whole. They had the 2nd best ERA in the NL last season, led the league in strike outs, and were the most difficult NL team to manufacture runs against. Their top 3 starters, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill, are certainly capable of combining for at least 45 wins. It’s most likely that Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster will fill in the final two slots with youngsters Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart having outside chances. They don’t want to put Dempster back in the bullpen, even though in his career he is below .500 as a starter, and there was no point in acquiring Lieber if they did not intend to use him in the starting rotation. But placing much confidence in Lieber’s ability to stay healthy seems unwise due to his propensity for injury over the last 6 seasons. Since 2001, when he was the Cubs’ last 20-game winner, he has pitched over 200 innings only once and that was back in 2005. Still, at only one year and $3.5 million, the Lieber signing is not a huge gamble and, should he come up lame, they do have numerous young arms that could fill the slot.

What does make the Lieber signing rather curious, however, is that they refused to offer this same deal to Mark Prior, who has also been injury-plagued but is only 27 and has more upside than a 38-year-old Lieber. Prior has only made 57 starts in the last 4 seasons and hasn’t shown signs of the brilliance he possessed in 2003 when he won 18 games. But I would’ve rather seen them gamble on the younger player who has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy. When Prior balked at agreeing to a club option for a second year on the one year offer, the Cubs finally threw in the towel on one of the most heralded draft picks in franchise history.

So Prior no longer figures into the Cubs future, but they did re-sign oft-injured former phenom Kerry Wood to a one-year deal. Moving Dempster out of the closer role creates an opportunity for Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol, or Wood to win the position in spring training. Woody seems the least likely to win the role in spite of being the hardest thrower. He has always had a propensity to walk batters and it’s uncertain if his arm can withstand working 2 or 3 consecutive days. Last season, Manager Lou Piniella tended to avoid using Wood in situations when the game was still in contention.

Carlos Marmol, possessor of the devastating slider and no doubt the closer of the future, may not yet be ready to move into the closer’s slot. While it is true that last season he had the 2nd lowest ERA (1.43) of all NL relief pitchers, and held batters to the 2nd lowest batting average (.169), the 25-year-old has not had the experience of facing the pressure of even a single major league save opportunity. Lou said last season that he liked having the flexibility of being able to bring Marmol into the game in the 6th, 7th or 8th when close games hung in the balance. He stranded inherited runners 87.8% of the time, which was better than all other NL relievers. Due to Marmol’s inexperience it is most likely they will start the season with veteran Bobby Howry in the closer role. Howry has done it before and it may benefit the club to ease the younger player into the role later on in the season if Howry falters.

In other bullpen moves the Cubs avoided salary arbitration with middle reliever Michael Wuertz by signing him to a one-year, $860,000 deal. The hard throwing right-hander was a solid contributor in ‘07 with a 3.48 ERA and stranded 86.8% of inherited runners, second in the NL to teammate Marmol. Neil Cotts was also resigned to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. He has a live arm but may return to the minors if he can’t regain the control that gave him the success he had in ‘05 with the White Sox. In a move with a lot of upside, Hendry dealt left hander Wil Ohman and utility man Omar Infante to Atlanta for Jose Ascanio, who has a 95+ mph fast ball and will likely begin the year at AA. Rule 5 draft pick-up Tim Lahey could also bolster their bullpen depth. These moves could serve dividends down the road and the Cubs have added young depth. Overall, I would say the pitching staff is slightly upgraded from last season, but more should have been done.

This offseason, the Cubs have made several moves that have improved their ballclub. It is still possible that they will attempt to bring in lead-off man and second baseman Brian Roberts, which would improve their lineup even more. That move would allow them to move Soriano and his strike outs down in the order and free up Mark DeRosa to fill the utility role which best suits him. But even if they are able to pry Peter Angelos’ pet out of Baltimore it probably won’t be a move that helps them capture the NL pennant. Their best chance of ending the centennial suckfest would be to acquire another top of the rotation pitcher. My prediction is wait ’til next year.

Offseason Grade: B

Additions: RF Kosuke Fukudome, SP Jon Lieber, RP Jose Ascanio, RP Tim Lahey, SS Alex Cintron, RP Chad Fox, RP Shingo Takatsu

Losses: OF Jacque Jones, C Jason Kendall, SP Mark Prior, RP Wil Ohman, OF Angel Pagan, OF Omar Infante

Projected Lineup, Rotation and Closer:

LF Alfonso Soriano – .299/.337/.560, 33 HR

SS Ryan Theriot – .266/.326/.346, 3 HR

1B Derrek Lee – .317/.400/.513, 22 HR

3B Aramis Ramirez – .310/.366/.549, 26 HR

RF Kosuke Fukudome – .294/.443/.520, 13 HR (Japan in 81 games)

2B Mark DeRosa – .293/.371/.420, 10 HR

C Geovany Soto – .389/.433/.667, 3 HR, 54 AB

CF Felix Pie – .215/.271/.333, 9HR

RHP – Carlos Zambrano – 18-13, 3.95 ERA

LHP – Ted Lilly – 15-8, 3.83 ERA

LHP – Rich Hill – 11-8, 3.92 ERA

RHP – Jon Lieber – 3-6, 4.73 ERA

RHP – Ryan Dempster – 2-7, 4.73 ERA, 28 SV

CL – Bobby Howry 8 SV, 3.32 ERA

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Many people have attributed the Rockies rise to NL champions, in part, to their practice of storing baseballs in a humidor. The humidor creates an atmosphere-controlled climate that prevents the balls from hardening and losing their friction, which can happen all too easily in the thin mountain air of Denver. The Rockies have been using it since the 2002 season, and since then the ridiculous offensive

numbers that the park had become know for have declined.

This phenomenon has had numerous benefits for the Rockies. One, Rockie pitchers are less fatigued, both mentally and physically, because they’re not pitching half of their games in an arcade game-style stadium.

Also, as Todd Helton has pointed out, the hitters benefit because they’re more prepared

for pitches that actually break and have movement when they play road games. So, it seems the humidor has been a stroke of genius by the Rockies organization.

Now, the smartest thing they can do is turn it off immediately, bring all those balls out into the Rocky Mountain air, and not touch that humidor again until April. Why? Because a hitter-friendly park favors the team with the better offense, and that team in this series is the Rockies. When you consider the Red Sox will be without one of their key offensive players for the DH-less games in Colorado (either David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, or Mike Lowell will have to sit out), the offensive edge swings even more toward the Rockies.

It would be interesting to see what effect the thin air and hard balls would have on Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 3. Would his fancy pitches dart and dive like they normally do? Many in Red Sox Nation would tell you that Dice-K doesn’t need any help to screw things up right now, he’s doing fine on his own, but I’m sure the Rockies wouldn’t mind a little extra help. And then there’s the specter of Josh Beckett, the emerging Mr. October Jr., looming in Game 5. Shouldn’t the Rockies be pulling out all the stops to try to throw him off his game, no matter how slight?

The best counter-argument I see is that the Rockies have won 20 of 21 games and shouldn’t be messing with anything right now. That’s fair. But none of those 21 games were against a team as good as the Red Sox and you have to look for every edge you can get.

There’s nothing illegal about storing balls in the normal way, right? So, Rockies, shut down the humidor!

This post was submitted by frequent Umpbump commenter Dan Doogan. If you’d like to submit a post, send it to get@umpbump.com. If we like it, we’ll publish it.

The announcement that John Schuerholz was resigning as GM of the Braves to become the new team president came as a surprise to fans. More than a few are worried that his replacement, former assistant GM Frank Wren, will not be able to pull off some of the same magical moves that have made the Braves so successful.

But before we speculate about the future, let’s take a moment to reflect on the past.

Schuerholz came on just after Bobby Cox stepped down from the front office to get back in the dugout. When Ted Turner and the Braves brought Schuerholz to Atlanta in the fall of 1990 to announce that he would be the new GM, they tried to book him in one of the swankier downtown hotels. But they were disappointed to find out that the presidential suite was not available due to the presence of one George H.W. Bush, who happened to be in town that week. The lesson, as always: you’ve got to lodge for the job you want, not the job you have.

But I digress.

Schuerholz won a number of different ways. He memorably built teams around pitching, but he also put together winning lineups that overcame bad pitching (see 2004). Even though he had a reputation as a wheeler and dealer, there were also plenty of home-grown stars that matured during his tenure. And while he had a fairly large checkbook to pursue big money names, he never was able to spend at the level of the Yankees or Red Sox. That became even more true after AOL-Time Warner bought the team and froze his budget.

And still he was able to produce division winners until the 2006 season.

Here’s a few highlights and lowlights from the Schuerholz era:

December 1990 – Signed free agent 3B Terry Pendleton

Pendleton had just hit .230 for the Cardinals the year before becoming a free agent. The Braves had been so bad for most of the eighties that they had to look up “first place” in the dictionary to understand what it meant. Schuerholz brought him in along with a collection of seasoned veterans (Sid Bream, Rafael Belliard, Otis Nixon, Juan Berenguer, etc.) for $1.7 million, which was less money than he made the previous season. The team was transformed by the new faces as well as the culmination of some talented young arms that the Braves had been grooming since the late eighties. TP hit quickly became the emotional leader. He hit .319 and was the MVP in the worst-to-first season.

December 1992 – Signed Free Agent P Greg Maddux

This certainly won’t be filed under “genius moves that no one expected to pay off” because Maddux was a hot commodity in a fairly rich free agent market. But by bringing him to Atlanta to team up with Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Steve Avery, Schuerholz gave the Braves a devastating rotation. Maddux won the Cy Young Award in each of his first three seasons as a Brave and Atlanta fans were treated to great pitching for the next decade or so.

July, 1993 – Traded OF Melvin Nieves, Donnie Elliott, and Vince Moore to the San Diego Padres for 1B Fred McGriff

Can you say fire sale? The Braves had too many prospects, the Padres had too much payroll. A match was made. San Fran was sitting atop a 9-game lead in the NL West when McGriff gave the Braves the spark they needed. (Literally: The press box caught fire his first night, delaying the start of the game for an hour. The Atlanta Fire Department was named the Player of The Game on TBS, even though McGriff hit a game-tying homer that rallied the Braves to the win.) The Crime Dog had a new moniker (Fire Dog) and a new home. All he did was hit .310 with 19 dingers and 55 RBI in 68 games for the Braves. The Braves won the NL West in one of the best pennant races of all time.

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