The Red Sox finished 7 games behind the Yankees and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs. How can they avoid a similar fate in 2010?

Boston’s biggest problem in 2009 was defense. They had the third-best run differential in baseball, yet ranked dead last in deff eff for much of the year. Their lineup, while certainly not bad, was not good enough. And their starting pitching, while good, was not good enough in the postseason.

Defense, offense, and pitching sounds like a lot (”Other than that, what did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”) but it’s actually not that bad. Boston has a pretty good team. Their biggest need this winter is the left side of the diamond. They could beef it up with one or more of the following acquisitions:

1. Sign LF Matt Holliday. Theo Epstein has hardly dared to breathe Holliday’s name this winter, and insists loudly to all who will listen that he wants to re-sign Jason Bay. Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much. Of the two, Holliday is clearly the left fielder the Red Sox need, superior on both offense and defense to Bay. (Bay has only once posted a positive UZR; Holliday has only once posted a negative UZR. Bay was worth 33.7 runs on offense, while Holliday’s bat was worth 36. Though some have wondered if Holliday is somehow incapable of hitting in the AL, it’s worth noting that his “terrible” slash line for the A’s was .286/.378/.454. Move him to hitter-friendly Fenway, and I think his righthanded bat will feel right at home. However, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox are loaded up with outfield prospects, so they might not want to commit a lot of money and years to a free agent signing there. (Also, Fire Brand of the American League likes the Jeremy Hermida acquisition.)
2. Sign 3B Adrian Beltre Beltre is another example of a righthanded hitter whose numbers would benefit from moving to Fenway Park, but I’m more interested in another aspect of his game: glovework. Beltre has been outstanding the last TK seasons as a third baseman, and the Red Sox desperately need to improve at third, where Mike Lowell, post-hip surgery, posted an UZR of -10.4. And while Kevin Youkilis can play third, his defense there is neutral, while his defense at first is actually a plus. (I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Boston to trade for a premier first baseman at this time.) If the Red Sox do sign Beltre, what happens to Lowell? I think the Red Sox just need to accept that, for 2010, they’ll have a very expensive DH platoon. To trade either Lowell or Ortiz, the Sox would have to eat a large portion of salary, and I’m doubtful about what they could get in return. Yes, a $25 million platoon is pricey. But those are sunk costs, and both players come off the books after next season — whether the Red Sox win or lose.
3. Acquire a shortstop Theo Epstein already missed out on JJ Hardy, but a girl can dare to dream of Marco Scutaro. Theo supposedly spends his free time scheming of ways to bring Hanley Ramirez back to Boston, but that seems like quite a long shot. Other names that have been bandied about include Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (great, so Bostonians can have another Drew brother to dump on?). It’s also worth mentioning that the Sox have defensively talented Cuban defector Jose Iglesias in their system, who they signed to a big-league deal in September. However, he’ll only be 20 in January and has “a swing-at-anything approach” according to Baseball Prospectus.

I’d be remiss if we didn’t at least talk about Boston’s pitching needs. You can never have too much starting pitching, and the Red Sox have diligently inquired with John Lackey’s agent. However, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll make a big push for him. There are also plenty of Type B free agent pitchers and rehab projects on the market, and the latter will be almost irresistible to Theo Epstein. For the GM who signed Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz, it will be nearly impossible to layoff the reclamation project crack pipe. With Boston’s superb medical staff, if any of these pitchers can be had at reasonable prices, you can bet Epstein will be in on it.

The Red Sox have the deep pockets to make some free agent signings; plus, their current core of home-grown players — Lester, Youkilis, and Pedroia — are all signed to inexpensive, multi-year deals. If the Red Sox can add one of Holliday, Beltre, or Scutaro to beef up the left side of the diamond, and gamble on a good pitcher (or two) coming back from injury, they’ll have a decent shot at knocking the Yankees off their perch.

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What could the world champion, richer-than-God New York Yankees possibly need? What do you get for the team that has (apparently) everything?

The question most Yankee-watchers have been asking is: Who’s in left? World Series MVP Hideki Matsui is a free agent, as is Johnny Damon. Neither player’s health inspires much confidence at this stage, though Damon’s legs have the edge over Matsui’s. Today, we learned that the Yankees may try to keep both players. This is surprising, and I’m inclined to suspect trickery — how can Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein both be professing a strong desire to re-sign their own sub-optimal LF/DH types when there’s Matt Holliday on the market? Could it be because they don’t want to start the inevitable bidding war (Holliday is a Scott Boras client) just yet? Both the Sox and the Yanks need a left-fielder; both teams have plenty of cash; and Holliday is the best one on the market. Let the auction begin! (It’s worth noting that Austin Jackson, one of NY’s top prospects, is an outfielder; but they aren’t relying on him being ready to contribute next year.)

Yet although the Yankees’ outfield has gotten the most attention as the area that needs improvement, even more material to the team’s success next year is beefing up the starting pitching. Despite signing the best two starters on the market last winter, the Yankees actually looked a little thin in the rotation in 2009. As a staff, Yankee pitchers were worth 18.7 wins above replacement — 10th in the majors. The starters ranked 15th in the majors in win probability added, at -0.42, with a fielding independent pitching mark of 4.31, good for 11th in MLB. Somehow I think they had something a little more impressive in mind when they signed CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett (though naturally, I suspect they’re quite pleased with the WS trophy). Yes, Andy Pettitte is getting up there, but it seems to make sense for the Yankees to re-sign him at least as an insurance policy (that is, of course, if he doesn’t retire). The Yankees are also, again, placing faith in their home-grown arms.

However, I do think they need to add to the pitching staff. I see no reason why baseball’s richest team shouldn’t get in on the bidding on John Lackey, for starters, and they should also be looking at Erik Bedard and Rich Harden. Though all three of these pitchers experienced health issues this year — and Bedard may not be ready to go by Opening Day — the Yankees have the kind of cash that lets them recover easily from bad contracts. And when healthy, all three of these guys can throw.

Why should the Yankees make a push on pitching when their offense is so strong? Why does a team that can score more than 900 runs really need to invest even more in starting pitching? Answer: injuries. The Yankees were remarkably healthy this year, especially for a team that’s on the older side. In 2010, if some of their big bats go down, it sure would be nice if they had some strong arms to carry them back to October.

-What They Need index-

The Yankees are World Champions again, but it’s not the same this time. Evil Empire? I wish; at least “evil” is interesting.

Instead, what we have is the rise of the boring over the bad. Somehow, Yankeefication has become synonymous with boringification. Johnny Damon: went to the Yankees, became boring. Mark Teixeira: is boring, and thus is perfectly suited for the Yankees. Joba Chamberlain: has a mother who dealt meth. Yet somehow is boring anyway.

Even Alex Rodriguez is boring. You’d think a top slugger who dates starlets could at least manage to be mildly intriguing. And yet Kate Hudson was pretty boring to start with, and is now made even more boring by her association with A-Rod. The news that A-Rod has not one, but two, portraits of himself as a centaur? That should be, if not actually interesting, then perhaps titillating. (If you snoozed through Mythology 101, a centaur is a mythical beast that is half horse, half douchebag.) But it’s completely boring.

The Yankees aren’t even interesting in New York, where the Mets seem to have a lock on mental stimulation. The Mets may have failed spectacularly this year, but at least they failed in a way that engaged the frontal lobe. Sure, the Yankees won the World Series, but they won it dully: They essentially just scored a lot of runs. And yet, not enough runs so as to actually be remarkable.

And in fact, that’s in line with their one-note “strategy” for success over the 2009 regular season: just score a lot of runs. In the middle of the pack in pitching, defense, and baserunning, the Yankees ranked first in MLB in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And as the only team in MLB to score more than 900 runs this season, their games were interminably long even before Jorge Posada started making 4 trips to the mound per at-bat.

Most mind-numbing of all is the debate we’re sure to be inflicted with, post-Series, about the payroll disparity between the Yankees and the Rest. Yes, it’s pretty wearisome when a team wins just by buying the best talent available. But it will be even more tedious to rehash the same tired arguments about salary caps and payroll limits.

What would save the Yankees — and the free, baseball-loving world — from this state of ennui? A better Red Sox team in 2010. Let’s face it: the Yankees only manage to be exciting when they have a worthy foe.

Let’s hope that Theo pulls out all the stops to give the Boring Bombers a run for their (oodles and oodles of) money. Because right now, even hating the Yankees is boring.

Last week, I wrote this somewhat silly Metro column about why Red Sox fans should root for the Phillies. I was being glib and slightly facetious. But tonight, I really do think that everyone in their right mind should be rooting for the Phillies — specifically, for Pedro Martinez.

There’s nothing like a good sports redemption story, and Pedro’s tale has all the ingredients. He has crazy hair, says crazy things, has a crazy secret love child. He is winless in his last 5 playoff starts at Yankee Stadium, dating back to 2003. He once admitted that the Yankees were his “daddy.” And he’s also one of the best pitchers of all time. (Remember that time back in 2000 when he posted an ERA+ of 291?!? Well, I do.)

And yet despite his sustained dominance — three Cy Youngs, eight All-Star picks, nine seasons with 200+ strikeouts including two seasons with 300+ strikeouts — he always retains the flavor of the underdog. Maybe it’s his diminutive size. Maybe it’s the arm-hanging-by-a-thread thing that’s made it seem for 10 years like every great game might be his last. Maybe it’s because he’s come thisclose to an MVP (in 1999, denied by voters who didn’t think a pitcher should win), thisclose to a perfect game (in 1995, when, after retiring 27 batters, the game was still scoreless) and now, just maybe, thisclose to being the only pitcher to win a Cy Young and a World Series ring in both leagues. Or maybe it’s because we remember that he was just the younger, smaller brother from a poor town in the Dominican; the one who might, with luck, one day be nearly as good as Ramon.

“I’m someone who wasn’t meant to be,” he said, “And here I am on the big stage.”

Here’s hoping he gets to take a well-deserved curtain call.

Last night’s World Series contest between the Phillies and the Yankees featured five solo home runs — one apiece from Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Ruiz, and two for Jason Werth.

Is there anything in baseball more boring than a solo home run? I mean, sure, it can be pretty darn interesting in the right context, like if it’s a walk-off solo home run or something. Or if it kills a seagull mid-air. But to me, a game with five solo homers tells you a) that the pitchers are throwing strikes and generally keeping runners off the bases and b) that they’re still not really pitching well enough to make the game interesting as a pitchers duel. For these reasons, I consider that a game with five solo shots has to be one of the most boringest kinds of games to watch.

Unless you were a Yankee fan, the most interesting parts of last night’s game were a) the appeal on A-Rod’s homer in the 4th (a two-run homer, let’s note) and when Jimmy Rollins tore up the basepaths in the 2nd, stealing second off of Andy Pettitte and swiping third (he then had to go back to second after Chase Utley fouled off the pitch). That’s about it.

Yes, the game was close enough to maintain suspense until the late innings. But I hope that tonight’s game offers something a little more interesting than the sight of one ballplayer trotting around the bases…five different times.

It’s the post-postseason here in Boston, and Sox fans have been ruminating on what the team should do to produce a better outcome next year. And yet we haven’t heard too many actual, you know, ideas on how to make that happen. It’s just, um, like, try harder, I guess?

But I have two ideas, just for starters:

1. Sign Matt Holliday instead of Jason Bay. Both LFers will be expensive, so the Red Sox should pick the slightly younger one with more defensive ability. Boston can afford Holliday, and anyway, Papi and Lowell will both come off the books after 2010. Before you wave the “but he sucked in the AL!” bloody shirt at me, recall that Holliday’s “shitty” OBP with Oakland was .378 — 8 points better than Bay’s first half-season in the AL. And while his power numbers were down, Oakland is definitely on the pitcher’s park side of things. He wouldn’t have that problem in Fenway.

2. Shop Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox need some youth, and their best prospects are all 2-3 years out. They also need infield help. It could be the ideal time to shop Pap, who won’t stay with the Red Sox once he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season anyway. (Plus, his periphs alarm me.)

What are your thoughts, Umpbumpers? Is this crazy-talk? Are there other moves you think Boston should make?

This WAR pie struck me as by turns satisfying and shocking. First, satisfying because it reveals the contributions of Jon Lester — who, earlier this season, was subjected to an embarrassing debate amongst fans over whether he was even a decent No. 3. But even so, it may be a shocking pill to swallow for Sox fans that Lester has contributed more to the team’s performance than Josh Beckett.

That big slices of pie have been gobbled up by Beckett, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia will not surprise observers of the team. But seeing JD Drew so high will come as a surprise to many, I fear; his playing seems to have been very underrated by Red Sox fans.

What shocks me, however, is seeing Brad Penny right behind Tim Wakefield. This is the guy Boston just released? For nothing in return? Oof. And Mike Lowell’s recent hot streak had left me assuming he’d take up more of the pie; same for Jason Bay. But their defense has eroded so much that they give up almost as many runs with their gloves as the produce with their bats. (Much to the chagrin of the aforementioned Mr. Penny.)

What should not come as a surprise, from the nice distribution of position players and pitchers above, is the even split between Boston’s hurlers and hitters in their overall pie:

Clearly, Boston can kill you on both sides of the ball. So why are they stuck 6 games behind New York and clinging to a tenuous Wild Card lead? I blame that crappy, crappy defense. Oh well.

So the rending of garments, tearing of hair, beating of breasts etc has been in full swing in Boston today after last night’s 8-4 loss to the New York Yankees. It’s August and the Red Sox are 7.5 games out of first, and just barely clinging to a tenuous lead in the Wild Card race. Plus the two teams nipping at their heels — Tampa Bay and Texas — seem to be playing with newfound second-half vigor, whereas in Boston it feels like our local nine are staggering to the finish line with all the enthusiasm and verve of the Bataan Death Marchers.

The headlines today proclaim that Josh Beckett was “hammered,” “battered,” “knocked around,” etc. And true, he did give up 5 dingers. But — and this may sound slightly crazy, I know — I really don’t think he pitched that badly. After all, he gave up only 9 hits in 8 innings of work. He struck out 5, while walking 0. And, given the way the Red Sox were scoring runs this weekend, somehow the 4-run deficit never felt insurmountable. And indeed, it’s not as if Beckett labored through the outing — he threw 120 pitches, which is high, but not as high as you would have thought it would be if you’d known he was going to work 8 innings and allow 8 runs to score.

Suffice it to say, it was a curious outing. And I’m curious to know if I sound totally-nuts-suffering-from-Stockholm-Syndrome, or refreshingly sane amidst a sea of Sox fan sturm und drang.