There are times, regardless of how good the advice sounds, when one needs to consider the source:

Cole Hamels met with reporters earlier and detailed how he changed his off-season training. Instead of not picking up a ball like he did last off-season, Hamels followed a long tossing program he learned from Mark Prior, who Hamels has known since he was 14.

OK, I’m probably being mean. But if I were Hamels, I would not be getting training tips from a guy like Prior.

It almost as stupid as creating a tv show where Alec Baldwin is giving you marital advice.

According to Jerry Crasnick’s Twitter feed, the Mets are bringing back let’s-call-him-a-first-baseman-because-he-can’t-possibly-play-anywhere-else Mike Jacobs as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

Jacobs broke into the majors as a Met in 2005, and promptly put up Pujols-like numbers. In 112 plate appearances, Jacobs went .310/.375/.710. And while no one in his/her right mind expected that to continue, he was a welcome offensive boost in comparison to the team’s regular first baseman that season, Doug Mientkiewicz. But Jacobs never got the chance to prove himself as a Met, and he was shipped off to Florida during that offseason as part of a package that netted the Mets’ Carlos Delgado.

With Jacobs, what you see is what you get. The guy looks like he swings for the fences no matter the pitch type, location, or count. And that’s what he does and likely all he ever will do. He doesn’t take walks, he strikes out a ton, he doesn’t hit for average, can’t run, and can’t field. He hits home runs. That’s Mike Jacobs.

So naturally, way too many people have confused him for a good player. Yes, he hit 32 HRs in 2008. But he also posted a downright poor batting average of .248 to go along with a .299 OBP. You need to hit a lot more than 32 dingers to make up for that lack of production.

And regardless of what evaluation tool you use, Jacobs is a bad defender. Period. Like advanced metrics? His UZR went from bad to terrible during his stay in Florida, finishing with a negative 19.4. Plus/minus data tells the same story, with him giving up twenty more runs than the average first baseman in 2008. If fielding % is your bag, then just know that he had a .988 FPCT, tied for last in MLB in 2008.

You may be wondering why I’m expressing such negativity over a minor league deal. He’s not guaranteed a roster spot, and he’s being paid the league minimum. This is true.  But consider the potential outcomes:

1. Jacobs beats out Daniel Murphy for the starting gig: When I’m hoping that Daniel Murphy – he of the career .768 OPS – will start the majority of games, clearly, there is a problem. Sure, Murph doesn’t have the power potential of Jacobs. But he will, god willing, post a much better AVG and OBP than Jacobs could while providing at least a decent glove defensively.
2. Jacobs remains on the team as a bench player: The Mets will likely carry 12 pitchers for most of the season, leaving 13 spots for positional players. Eight will obviously be taken up by starters, leaving five bench spots. One of them will be the back up catcher (Henry Blanco?) Gary Matthews Jr. (ugh) will be the fourth OFer, and Alex Cora and Fernando Tatis will most likely be the infielders. So would you give that last spot to a player incapable of playing defense and can’t hit lefties like Jacobs? Would the Mets feel comfortable with Matthews and Tatis as their only “viable” (wink, wink) OF options?
3. Jacobs gets sent down to the minors (and doesn’t throw a hissy fit): This may actually be the worst scenario, believe it or not. Over the past year or so, the Mets have made a concerted effort to (gasp!) develop their own players from within. So through drafting and trading, the Mets have compiled a pretty decent group of players capable of seeing time as a big-league first basemen. Ike Davis in particular, has become the organization’s top positional prospect. Davis is expected to start the year in AAA-Buffalo… Which is where Jacobs would be if he’s sent down. In addition to Davis, Buffalo is also expected to find playing time for Nick Evans, journeyman (and blogger Ted Berg’s favorite) Val Pascucci, and Chris Carter – all of whom are also candidates to play first. Quite frankly, any of those guys probably have a better chance at helping the club over the short and long term than Jacobs.
4. Jacobs gets cut: You can probably tell by now that in my estimation, this would be my preference. He’s a one-dimensional player vying for a spot on a team that needs more from him than can be fairly expected. Besides, this will let Jacobs pursue what I believe is his life calling – to become a professional wrestler (tell me he does not look the part).

Seeing as I don’t expect that the Mets, as presently constructed, will be much of a threat to Philly or Atlanta in the divisional race this year, I can live with Jacobs on the 25-man roster. But if he gets sent down to AAA, I’m afraid that meaningless ABs given to him will hinder the development of younger players who still have a chance to be useful cogs in the future. Jacobs is 29 years old and has shown no signs of improving upon the areas that are required for him to become a good MLB caliber player. The Mets should be making room for the next group of players.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows anything about the Milwaukee Brewers, but this is a team that is still in need of at least one more SP capable of posting league-average numbers.

Despite signing the oft-underrated Randy Wolf to replace Braden Looper (who by the way did his very best to provide yet another example that a W-L record is a bad way to judge a pitcher)  the rotation still has two replacement-level starters in Jeff Suppan and Manny Parra.

Suppan especially has become a thorn in their side (yes, even Prince Fielder’s gut can feel that thorn). The 35-year old Soup was signed to a ridiculous $42M/4 deal in December of 2006 and has followed that up with one decent season (2007) and two gross ones. Assuming that the Brewers hold steady at a roughly $80M payroll in 2010, Jeff Suppan’s salary is going to take up 15.6% of that alone in 2010. And with the track record of 35-year old pitchers turning it around after a 3-year decline, no one should assume that Suppan will be much of an asset.

But there’s just that weird sentiment that seems to pervade the minds of baseball team owners that salary should dictate playing time, which never made much sense to me. And assuming that Suppan is untradeable, he’s going to stay in that rotation. So if any improvement’s going to come, it’s at the expense of Manny Parra, who’s no ace himself and constantly underperforms his FIP.

So who will it be? There seems to be talk of Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or Jon Garland but unless they sign a deal for far less than what I imagine it would cost to get them (which has been happening this year), I’d say no thanks. Instead, I’d argue for trading Corey Hart, who I believe is overvalued among fans and very possibly some front offices. If Hart can be dealt (he’s a former All Star!) for a decent arm, moving Casey McGehee to right (assuming he can handle it, of course) and signing Miguel Tejada on the cheap to play third would improve the team without sacrificing much offense.

Even without such a move, the team’s defense could very well have improved despite the departures of Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy. Cam’s replacement will be Carlos Gomez, among the best defensive CFers in the game. It’s clear that Gomez is a worse hitter than some pitchers, but his range in center should help make up for a lot of that. Another addition is prospect Alcides Escobar. He probably won’t be winning any Silver Sluggers anytime soon but his defense at short has been very highly regarded.  While Ryan Braun in left and Casey McGehee at third will still piss pitchers off every now and then, at least they can rely on the guys in center and short to help them out.

The NL Central is winnable although the Cards remain the favorites at this point. The ideal situation would be to somehow get Suppan out of the rotation but I don’t expect that to happen. But finding a cost-effective alternative to Manny Parra should help alleviate that issue some. The Brewers can live with Suppan or Parra as the fifth starter. But they won’t survive if they count on them both.

- What They Need Index -

Not to be too harsh on Jayson Stark since he is a far more respected writer than I will ever be, but his recent article regarding Ryan Braun’s great numbers against elite MLB pitching is a pretty good example of what bugs me as a reader of baseball articles and intimate lover of baseball statistics.  Sorry Mr. Stark, but when I see my lady being abused like this, I have to stand up for her.

Stark sets up the article discussing the difference between good hitters and bad hitters, citing Aaron Miles as the example. He writes:

In 2009, according to Bill James Online, the Cubs’ Aaron Miles — a fellow who hit a robust .185 for the season — actually had a higher batting average against pitchers with an ERA over 5.25 than Ichiro Suzuki or Derek Jeter.

Miles did bat .324 last year against this inferior crop of pitchers. However, as Stark notes, against those whose ERAs were 3.50 or lower, Miles couldn’t hit a lick, posting a .085 AVG. Thus, Stark observes:

So you’ve now learned something about what separates the best hitters on earth from the .185 hitters on earth: The best hitters (feel free to sing along) hit good pitching. And your .185 hitters? Ehhhh, not so much.

And herein lies the root of the problem with the article. Logically speaking, I suppose it makes sense. You don’t expect bad hitters to hit good pitching. But you know what? Over a short span of time, they can. And they do.

I don’t know if Stark checked to see if this was something that Miles perpetually had trouble with. But the fact remains that in 2008, against pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better, Aaron Miles hit .347.  Does this mean that Aaron Miles

As if my nerd-dom wasn't clear enough...

used to be a star player ? We all know that he never was. Here’s a guy whose career batting line is a very mediocre .282/.322/.356. So what gives?

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep on saying it until William Stryker captures me and makes me mute ala Ryan Reynolds (anyone? anyone? no?) – although we’d like to believe that the outcome of a baseball game (or life in general, for that matter) is solely up to the players themselves, it’s just not true.

Takes Miles for instance again. How is it that he was a bad hitter in 2009 against top pitching when he excelled against top pitching the year before? It’s called luck, people. And especially for part-time players like Miles, luck plays a huge role in their year-end numbers because they don’t get many ABs.

You may have heard us geeks talk about “sample sizes” before and this is what we mean. In any given at-bat, the worst hitter in baseball can get a hit off the best pitcher. Maybe the pitcher made a rare mistake. Maybe it was a groundball that sneaked by the shortstop whereas a couple more inches to the right it would have been fielded with ease. Or maybe the batter closed his eyes and god had nothing better to do than answer his prayers. These things happen. In fact, they happen all the time. And over, say, 50 ABs, it could very well happen once, twice, or 20 times more. It’s unlikely. But the world is full of unlikely things. I mean, chances are, at least one of the Gosselin kids will lead a fairly happy life with no need for intensive therapy (I’m so topical!).

But have that same batter and pitcher face each other again 1000 times. I’ll bet the remaining $500.61 I have in my savings account that the numbers will be ugly for this hypothetical batter. Because the longer they play, the more reality sets in. You can’t tell anything about any player in 50ABs. And that’s basically the reliability of the information that Stark is using to make his argument. A player’s true skill level is not revealed statistically in such a short span of time. It takes much longer for that to happen.

No offense, Jayson, but to paraphrase the great Inigo Montoya, I do not think that stat means what you think it means.

While I’m sort of happy for Aroldis Chapman who has reportedly agreed to a five-year, $30MM deal with Cincinatti, I have one primary question for him.

If you were escaping Communist Cuba for American shores, would you really want to sign with a team called the Reds?

Just asking.

Oakland fans, your long wait is almost over! Yes, 2010 will be the last year of Eric Chavez’s contract! Hazzah!

But aside from that, I’m not sure there’s going to be too much to celebrate in Oak-Town. With no Matt Holliday or Jack Cust in the lineup, the A’s are lacking some serious punch. Aside from the departed players, no one on their 2009 roster surpassed the league average number for Isolated Power (.155). But with the news that the front office is set to acquire Coco Crisp, I think they’ve made their intentions quite clear – they are not going to concern themselves much with this..

Perhaps that sounds harsh. It’s probably more accurate to say that they feel trying to improve their power isn’t worth what it will inevitably cost them. Instead, they’re targeting Crisp, a strong defensive outfielder. On the days that he will start alongside Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney, the A’s outfield will rival any other with the glove.

And that should only help their young pitching staff. Out of the six Oakland pitchers with the most starts in 2009, Dallas Braden will be the oldest among them come Opening Day – at the grandfatherly age of 26. Plus, not only are the others younger, they’re more talented. The trio of Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Josh Outman are already good enough to post league average numbers or better.

But while their defense and pitching should make them competitive, I’m afraid that’s all they will be in 2010. Unless the young pitchers take huge leaps, I don’t see what Billy Beane can do right now to top both Anaheim and Seattle to take the division crown. The most likely of the potential positive outcomes is that the pitchers get some more big league experience while they somehow find enough ABs for prospects Aaron Cunningham and Michael Taylor in that crowded OF. And once they can shed Eric Chavez’s deal, they may be ready to make a run for it in 2011.

- What They Need Index -

If Opening Day were tomorrow, I’d peg the Mets to finish 3rd in the NL East behind Philly and Atlanta. And it may not even be that close. They’d be trotting out Omir Santos at Catcher, Daniel Murphy at First, Luis Castillo at Second, Jeff Francoeur in Right, Angel Pagan in Left, and Johan Santana would be followed in the rotation by Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and (maybe) Jonathon Niese. On their own, each of these would not pose much of a problem. Collectively, it’s unacceptable for a team that routinely has one of the highest payrolls in baseball and claims to have playoff aspirations.

How did this happen? How did a team that averaged 91 wins from 2006-2008 fall to such mediocrity in the span of one season? Like most things of this nature, it wasn’t one mistake that caused it, but rather, a series of blunders over a long span of time. And at some point, the responsibility needs to fall on the shoulders of the man who’s supposed to be making the tough decisions. And that man is GM Omar Minaya.

The Mets are currently an organization with no apparent plan. They do not have the prospect pipeline of Texas or Tampa Bay. They don’t have the appreciation for defense exhibited by Seattle, or the pitching depth of Atlanta, nor do they have the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Philadelphia. What the Mets do have, however,  is the market cornered on replacement-level catchers. So that’s something.

I could sit here and tell you that the Mets should sign free agents Matt Holliday and Ben Sheets. I could argue that they need to continue rebuilding their farm system that’s beginning to show some promise. But first, what the Mets really need is someone who understands that paying $2M per year to a player like Alex Cora who can easily be replaced by a number of minor leaguers makes no sense. Or that giving Francisco Rodriguez $37M over 3 years when you have too many other holes to fill is insane. Until there is a change at the top, whomever they sign this offseason will merely be a stopgap until the next round of problems.

- What They Need Index -

Reading this defense of Molina on Mets Fever, I came back to a sincere question I have that keeps reoccurring.

Who are the catchers that do not call a good game? Who’s terrible at this? If we are to assume that some guys are the cream of the crop (in this instance, Molina), then there must be those at the bottom, right?

This is one instance where I’m not trying to be a jerk at all. I’m honestly curious. Fire away with suggestions.