This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows anything about the Milwaukee Brewers, but this is a team that is still in need of at least one more SP capable of posting league-average numbers.

Despite signing the oft-underrated Randy Wolf to replace Braden Looper (who by the way did his very best to provide yet another example that a W-L record is a bad way to judge a pitcher)  the rotation still has two replacement-level starters in Jeff Suppan and Manny Parra.

Suppan especially has become a thorn in their side (yes, even Prince Fielder’s gut can feel that thorn). The 35-year old Soup was signed to a ridiculous $42M/4 deal in December of 2006 and has followed that up with one decent season (2007) and two gross ones. Assuming that the Brewers hold steady at a roughly $80M payroll in 2010, Jeff Suppan’s salary is going to take up 15.6% of that alone in 2010. And with the track record of 35-year old pitchers turning it around after a 3-year decline, no one should assume that Suppan will be much of an asset.

But there’s just that weird sentiment that seems to pervade the minds of baseball team owners that salary should dictate playing time, which never made much sense to me. And assuming that Suppan is untradeable, he’s going to stay in that rotation. So if any improvement’s going to come, it’s at the expense of Manny Parra, who’s no ace himself and constantly underperforms his FIP.

So who will it be? There seems to be talk of Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or Jon Garland but unless they sign a deal for far less than what I imagine it would cost to get them (which has been happening this year), I’d say no thanks. Instead, I’d argue for trading Corey Hart, who I believe is overvalued among fans and very possibly some front offices. If Hart can be dealt (he’s a former All Star!) for a decent arm, moving Casey McGehee to right (assuming he can handle it, of course) and signing Miguel Tejada on the cheap to play third would improve the team without sacrificing much offense.

Even without such a move, the team’s defense could very well have improved despite the departures of Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy. Cam’s replacement will be Carlos Gomez, among the best defensive CFers in the game. It’s clear that Gomez is a worse hitter than some pitchers, but his range in center should help make up for a lot of that. Another addition is prospect Alcides Escobar. He probably won’t be winning any Silver Sluggers anytime soon but his defense at short has been very highly regarded.  While Ryan Braun in left and Casey McGehee at third will still piss pitchers off every now and then, at least they can rely on the guys in center and short to help them out.

The NL Central is winnable although the Cards remain the favorites at this point. The ideal situation would be to somehow get Suppan out of the rotation but I don’t expect that to happen. But finding a cost-effective alternative to Manny Parra should help alleviate that issue some. The Brewers can live with Suppan or Parra as the fifth starter. But they won’t survive if they count on them both.

- What They Need Index -

Not to be too harsh on Jayson Stark since he is a far more respected writer than I will ever be, but his recent article regarding Ryan Braun’s great numbers against elite MLB pitching is a pretty good example of what bugs me as a reader of baseball articles and intimate lover of baseball statistics.  Sorry Mr. Stark, but when I see my lady being abused like this, I have to stand up for her.

Stark sets up the article discussing the difference between good hitters and bad hitters, citing Aaron Miles as the example. He writes:

In 2009, according to Bill James Online, the Cubs’ Aaron Miles — a fellow who hit a robust .185 for the season — actually had a higher batting average against pitchers with an ERA over 5.25 than Ichiro Suzuki or Derek Jeter.

Miles did bat .324 last year against this inferior crop of pitchers. However, as Stark notes, against those whose ERAs were 3.50 or lower, Miles couldn’t hit a lick, posting a .085 AVG. Thus, Stark observes:

So you’ve now learned something about what separates the best hitters on earth from the .185 hitters on earth: The best hitters (feel free to sing along) hit good pitching. And your .185 hitters? Ehhhh, not so much.

And herein lies the root of the problem with the article. Logically speaking, I suppose it makes sense. You don’t expect bad hitters to hit good pitching. But you know what? Over a short span of time, they can. And they do.

I don’t know if Stark checked to see if this was something that Miles perpetually had trouble with. But the fact remains that in 2008, against pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better, Aaron Miles hit .347.  Does this mean that Aaron Miles

As if my nerd-dom wasn't clear enough...

used to be a star player ? We all know that he never was. Here’s a guy whose career batting line is a very mediocre .282/.322/.356. So what gives?

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep on saying it until William Stryker captures me and makes me mute ala Ryan Reynolds (anyone? anyone? no?) – although we’d like to believe that the outcome of a baseball game (or life in general, for that matter) is solely up to the players themselves, it’s just not true.

Takes Miles for instance again. How is it that he was a bad hitter in 2009 against top pitching when he excelled against top pitching the year before? It’s called luck, people. And especially for part-time players like Miles, luck plays a huge role in their year-end numbers because they don’t get many ABs.

You may have heard us geeks talk about “sample sizes” before and this is what we mean. In any given at-bat, the worst hitter in baseball can get a hit off the best pitcher. Maybe the pitcher made a rare mistake. Maybe it was a groundball that sneaked by the shortstop whereas a couple more inches to the right it would have been fielded with ease. Or maybe the batter closed his eyes and god had nothing better to do than answer his prayers. These things happen. In fact, they happen all the time. And over, say, 50 ABs, it could very well happen once, twice, or 20 times more. It’s unlikely. But the world is full of unlikely things. I mean, chances are, at least one of the Gosselin kids will lead a fairly happy life with no need for intensive therapy (I’m so topical!).

But have that same batter and pitcher face each other again 1000 times. I’ll bet the remaining $500.61 I have in my savings account that the numbers will be ugly for this hypothetical batter. Because the longer they play, the more reality sets in. You can’t tell anything about any player in 50ABs. And that’s basically the reliability of the information that Stark is using to make his argument. A player’s true skill level is not revealed statistically in such a short span of time. It takes much longer for that to happen.

No offense, Jayson, but to paraphrase the great Inigo Montoya, I do not think that stat means what you think it means.

While I’m sort of happy for Aroldis Chapman who has reportedly agreed to a five-year, $30MM deal with Cincinatti, I have one primary question for him.

If you were escaping Communist Cuba for American shores, would you really want to sign with a team called the Reds?

Just asking.

Oakland fans, your long wait is almost over! Yes, 2010 will be the last year of Eric Chavez’s contract! Hazzah!

But aside from that, I’m not sure there’s going to be too much to celebrate in Oak-Town. With no Matt Holliday or Jack Cust in the lineup, the A’s are lacking some serious punch. Aside from the departed players, no one on their 2009 roster surpassed the league average number for Isolated Power (.155). But with the news that the front office is set to acquire Coco Crisp, I think they’ve made their intentions quite clear – they are not going to concern themselves much with this..

Perhaps that sounds harsh. It’s probably more accurate to say that they feel trying to improve their power isn’t worth what it will inevitably cost them. Instead, they’re targeting Crisp, a strong defensive outfielder. On the days that he will start alongside Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney, the A’s outfield will rival any other with the glove.

And that should only help their young pitching staff. Out of the six Oakland pitchers with the most starts in 2009, Dallas Braden will be the oldest among them come Opening Day – at the grandfatherly age of 26. Plus, not only are the others younger, they’re more talented. The trio of Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Josh Outman are already good enough to post league average numbers or better.

But while their defense and pitching should make them competitive, I’m afraid that’s all they will be in 2010. Unless the young pitchers take huge leaps, I don’t see what Billy Beane can do right now to top both Anaheim and Seattle to take the division crown. The most likely of the potential positive outcomes is that the pitchers get some more big league experience while they somehow find enough ABs for prospects Aaron Cunningham and Michael Taylor in that crowded OF. And once they can shed Eric Chavez’s deal, they may be ready to make a run for it in 2011.

- What They Need Index -

If Opening Day were tomorrow, I’d peg the Mets to finish 3rd in the NL East behind Philly and Atlanta. And it may not even be that close. They’d be trotting out Omir Santos at Catcher, Daniel Murphy at First, Luis Castillo at Second, Jeff Francoeur in Right, Angel Pagan in Left, and Johan Santana would be followed in the rotation by Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and (maybe) Jonathon Niese. On their own, each of these would not pose much of a problem. Collectively, it’s unacceptable for a team that routinely has one of the highest payrolls in baseball and claims to have playoff aspirations.

How did this happen? How did a team that averaged 91 wins from 2006-2008 fall to such mediocrity in the span of one season? Like most things of this nature, it wasn’t one mistake that caused it, but rather, a series of blunders over a long span of time. And at some point, the responsibility needs to fall on the shoulders of the man who’s supposed to be making the tough decisions. And that man is GM Omar Minaya.

The Mets are currently an organization with no apparent plan. They do not have the prospect pipeline of Texas or Tampa Bay. They don’t have the appreciation for defense exhibited by Seattle, or the pitching depth of Atlanta, nor do they have the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Philadelphia. What the Mets do have, however,  is the market cornered on replacement-level catchers. So that’s something.

I could sit here and tell you that the Mets should sign free agents Matt Holliday and Ben Sheets. I could argue that they need to continue rebuilding their farm system that’s beginning to show some promise. But first, what the Mets really need is someone who understands that paying $2M per year to a player like Alex Cora who can easily be replaced by a number of minor leaguers makes no sense. Or that giving Francisco Rodriguez $37M over 3 years when you have too many other holes to fill is insane. Until there is a change at the top, whomever they sign this offseason will merely be a stopgap until the next round of problems.

- What They Need Index -

Reading this defense of Molina on Mets Fever, I came back to a sincere question I have that keeps reoccurring.

Who are the catchers that do not call a good game? Who’s terrible at this? If we are to assume that some guys are the cream of the crop (in this instance, Molina), then there must be those at the bottom, right?

This is one instance where I’m not trying to be a jerk at all. I’m honestly curious. Fire away with suggestions.

Via Bob Dutton (KC’s beat reporter)’s twitter feed:

Hearing the #Royals have upped offer to C Jason Kendall to two years in hopes of eliminating competition.

I have no idea if this is true. But if it is, it almost makes me glad to be a Mets fan.

First, Coley pointed me to a funny tweet courtesy of ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick:

Phils special asst. Charlie Kerfeld just came up to me in the lobby. “I have a question for you,” he said. “What the heck is a Twitter?”

Prior to this, I had no idea that Charlie Kerfeld was working as a special assistant to Ruben Amaro, Jr. But I’m glad he’s still around the game. Why? Because his name will always remind me of that drunken totally normal interview he gave during the celebration following the Astros clinching the NL West pennant in 1986. Enjoy.