Fantasy Update: More Injury Risks
In my last entry, I listed five guys who would be on the DL before the All-Star break. Since the article was posted, three players have already been stricken by the injury bug. Gary Sheffield and Kerry Wood have both been placed on the 15-day DL and Barry Bonds has missed five straight games with a sore left side. In this column, I have listed five more players that present intermediate injury risks to your fantasy team. Proceed at your own risk.
J.D. DREW
If you were to start a Fantasy Injury League, Drew would be a top-three pick. J.D. has missed 27 games or more in six of his seven full professional seasons. On average, Drew misses approximately a month per season and consistently breaks fantasy owners’ hearts with lingering hamstring pulls. It’s only a matter of time until Drew blows a gasket again this season and hampers your fantasy team’s stretch run. He’s been posting great numbers this season, so try to work a trade with another owner and get market value from a less-risky outfielder.
JAKE PEAVY
The damage may have already been done to Jake Peavy. By looking at his numbers this season, one could assume that Peavy is pitching hurt and just doesn’t want to admit it. At 4-7 with a 4.96 ERA, Peavy is nowhere near his form from the 2004 and 2005 campaigns in which he posted a combined record of 28-13 with an ERA hovering around 2.50. It’s possible that Peavy is pitching through pain to help his Padres stay in the NL West race – an unselfish but extremely dangerous notion. Be weary of Peavy’s progress and check-up on his health regularly.
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Fantasy Update: Highest Injury Risks
We’ve all drafted teams that would have won fantasy leagues if it weren’t for the injury bug. I know it, you know it. Avoid the madness! I have detailed the highest injury risks fantasy baseball has to offer. Rip off a friend, work a trade, do what you have to do. Just get rid of these players immediately – they will be on the DL by the All-Star break.
BARRY BONDS
Bonds recently passed Babe Ruth for 2nd place on the all-time HR list. His knees are
shot, his back is stiff and he has publicly acknowledged that he does not foresee himself passing Hank Aaron. Does he really have anything else to play for? Bonds takes a verbal beating every time that he takes the field, it’s only a matter of time until some psycho throws a needle at him, and the Giants are 3 ½ games out of first place in the NL West. Bonds has been out of the starting lineup an average of once every fives games this season. The well-rounded lashing that Bonds takes on a daily basis will catch up to him…soon.
KERRY WOOD
Sorry Cubs fans, but the curse continues. Despite solid performances in his first two starts after returning from right shoulder surgery, Kerry Wood’s third start had to be pushed back to “give him more rest”. Ummm, shady. Cubs manager Dusty Baker refuses to pitch Wood on less than five days rest. Wood’s curveball embarrasses hitters, but it doesn’t help that he can only throw it 50-80 times before undergoing more shoulder surgery. As long as Wood continues to throw that curve – and he will…he’s a stubborn, swashbuckling Texan – expect DL stints to follow.
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Fantasy Injury Updates
Eric Gagne Dodgers reliever Eric Gagne allowed one hit in a scoreless ninth inning Monday to earn a save in his second and final rehab assignment for Triple-A Las Vegas. Gagne got former major leaguer Curtis Pride to ground out to shortstop to end the 8-6 victory.
Gagne said he is scheduled to return to the Dodgers on Thursday, when they return home to play Philadelphia. The former All-Star has looked great during his rehab stint and is primed to regain his role as the Dodgers’ closer upon his return to the majors. It’s likely that it’s too late to pry Gagne away from your fantasy brethren, but it’s worth a shot. Try packaging two good relievers and see if you can catch someone off guard.
Mark Prior Pitching at the Cubs’ Class A affiliate, Prior struggled to get out of the second inning of his rehab appearance on Monday. The 25-year old righty threw 44 pitches in two innings, giving up four hits and three runs. He’s been on the disabled list all season as he works his way back from a sore shoulder.
With the Cubs mired in a season-long slump, don’t expect Prior to be rushed back into the rotation. The Cubs plan to start Prior in atleast two more rehab games before assessing his situation. Prior is a top-notch starter that is worth acquiring if you have trade bait and can afford to stow him away until he reemerges in the majors in mid-June.
Jorge Cantu Devil Rays 2B Jorge Cantu starts a week-long rehab assignment Monday at Double-A Montgomery and is expected back from a broken left foot around June 5.
Despite putting up remarkable numbers, Cantu is still an under-valued fantasy commodity. With eligibility at 2b and 3b, Cantu is coming off of a season in which he led the Devil Rays in homers, RBI’s, hits and doubles. Try to trade for Jorge before he regains full strength and starts mashing again at the Trop.
Carl Pavano Carl Pavano had a bone chip removed from his right elbow by Dr. James Andrews last Thursday, according to the New York Post.
Run for your lives! Anytime you hear the words “Dr. James Andrews” in regard to one of your pitchers, you might as well grab a drink, toast to better times, grin and bear it. Pavano is still hopeful to return before the end of 2006, but at this point, the injury-plagued Pavano holds little to no fantasy value. Stash him only if you have ample room on your DL.
Rich Harden Oakland ace Rich Harden could return to the Oakland rotation as early as this upcoming Sunday. He has been out of action and on the disabled list since late April due to a strained back muscle.
Now may be the perfect time to try to acquire Harden. With a lengthy injury to begin the 2006 campaign, fantasy owners may be growing restless with his prolonged abscence and may not have heard the good news about his return. Offer a respectable trade for Harden in an attempt to make an antsy Harden owner bite without thinking things through.
Stay tuned for my next article in which I’ll tell you which players WILL be injured by the end of this month.
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Fantasy Update: Love ‘em or Leave ‘em?
For all you fantasy geeks that would rather endure a Bea Arthur striptease than watch your former all-star vet suffer through another horrendous season, I have masterfully compiled the following list.This list dutifully releases you of all hardship involved in making the perpetually difficult decision: hope for the best or drop for the rest? I’ll make your decision for you…
1. ADRIAN BELTRE – Beltre is hitting an anemic .218 on the season with power numbers sagging across the board. What you may have missed is the fact that Beltre has swiped nine bags, nearly matching his output from the last two seasons combined. Some schmuck in your fantasy league will want Beltre the minute he hits two homeruns in a game, so stash him away for a trade deadline deal.
Verdict: KEEP HIM
2. LUIS CASTILLO – Is this guy infuriating or what? No doubt you drafted Castillo for his stolen bases, but fact of the matter is he doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to. With declining stolen base totals each of the last three years (10 last year), Castillo serves little to no worth at the 2b position. Oh wait, he’s batting .345 with 20 rbi’s! Are you kidding?!? Do yourself a favor and trade him while he still has some value. Castillo has never had more than 47 rbi’s in a season, so don’t expect his pace for 90+ rbi’s to be sustainable.
Verdict: TRADE HIM…IMMEDIATELY
3. MIKE SWEENEY – Oh Mike, I’ve drafted you in three fantasy leagues over the past two years…oh, sorry Mike, I’ve dropped you in all three of those fantasy leagues. Sweeney’s days of .300+, 25+ hr, 85+ rbi are long gone. This guy has more health problems than Jack Bauer. With bulging discs and tight hammies and broken wrists and whatever else, Sweeney is not worth a roster spot.
Verdict: DROP HIM
4. SHAWN GREEN – Ever since the ‘roid rage days of 2002, Greenie has prided himself on being thoroughly mediocre. In the last three years, he has averaged 23 homeruns and a .278 batting average, fitting in perfectly with the Raul Ibanez’s of the outfield world. Those numbers are fine for a flex outfielder in mixed rotisserie formats, just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’ve found a gem. Verdict: KEEP HIM
5. RAFAEL FURCAL – Furcal has struggled so far in his first year west of the Mississippi, but I can’t remember a season in which he didn’t struggle before June. Although his batting average and power numers are down, Furcal has totaled 29 runs and 9 sb’s through the first six weeks, hardly numbers to complain about. You drafted Fookie for his stolen bases and in that regard he has come through.
Verdict: KEEP HIM
*note: a line in this post was changed to read “west of the Mississippi”, rather than “west of the Mason-Dixon Line.”
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Fantasy Update: Love ‘em or Leave ‘em?
For all you fantasy geeks that would rather endure a Bea Arthur striptease than watch your former all-star vet suffer through another horrendous season, I have masterfully compiled the following list.This list dutifully releases you of all hardship involved in making the perpetually difficult decision: hope for the best or drop for the rest? I’ll make your decision for you…
1. ADRIAN BELTRE – Beltre is hitting an anemic .218 on the season with power numbers sagging across the board. What you may have missed is the fact that Beltre has swiped nine bags, nearly matching his output from the last two seasons combined. Some schmuck in your fantasy league will want Beltre the minute he hits two homeruns in a game, so stash him away for a trade deadline deal.
Verdict: KEEP HIM
2. LUIS CASTILLO – Is this guy infuriating or what? No doubt you drafted Castillo for his stolen bases, but fact of the matter is he doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to. With declining stolen base totals each of the last three years (10 last year), Castillo serves little to no worth at the 2b position. Oh wait, he’s batting .345 with 20 rbi’s! Are you kidding?!? Do yourself a favor and trade him while he still has some value. Castillo has never had more than 47 rbi’s in a season, so don’t expect his pace for 90+ rbi’s to be sustainable.
Verdict: TRADE HIM…IMMEDIATELY
3. MIKE SWEENEY – Oh Mike, I’ve drafted you in three fantasy leagues over the past two years…oh, sorry Mike, I’ve dropped you in all three of those fantasy leagues. Sweeney’s days of .300+, 25+ hr, 85+ rbi are long gone. This guy has more health problems than Jack Bauer. With bulging discs and tight hammies and broken wrists and whatever else, Sweeney is not worth a roster spot.
Verdict: DROP HIM
4. SHAWN GREEN – Ever since the ‘roid rage days of 2002, Greenie has prided himself on being thoroughly mediocre. In the last three years, he has averaged 23 homeruns and a .278 batting average, fitting in perfectly with the Raul Ibanez’s of the outfield world. Those numbers are fine for a flex outfielder in mixed rotisserie formats, just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’ve found a gem. Verdict: KEEP HIM
5. RAFAEL FURCAL – Furcal has struggled so far in his first year west of the Mississippi, but I can’t remember a season in which he didn’t struggle before June. Although his batting average and power numers are down, Furcal has totaled 29 runs and 9 sb’s through the first six weeks, hardly numbers to complain about. You drafted Fookie for his stolen bases and in that regard he has come through.
Verdict: KEEP HIM
*note: a line in this post was changed to read “west of the Mississippi”, rather than “west of the Mason-Dixon Line.”
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Fantasy Update: Five guys to grab
Brandon McCarthy, Chicago White Sox:
McCarthy currently serves as manager Ozzie Guillen’s darkhorse out of the bullpen. In four appearances so far this year, he has worked nine innings tallying seven strikeouts and a 0.89 WHIP. In other words, the 22-year old reliever logs multiple innings per outing while establishing a K/9 ratio nearing 9.0. Can anyone say rotation? Grab onto McCarthy while he’s still available and hope that one of the White Sox starters goes down to injury - McCarthy is next in line.
Chuck James, Atlanta Braves:
James, like McCarthy, is an innings eater for Bobby Cox. He has worked two or more innings in each of his five appearances so far this year, allowing runs in only one outing (solo HR’s to Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell last week). Although his strikeout ratios have not been overwhelming, opposing batters are batting just .179 against him. With all of Atlanta’s pitching in flux, pick up James and hope that Chris Reitsma continues to blow it. James could very well be the Braves’ next option.
Scott Shields, LA Angels of Anaheim:
Shields is a set-up man that keeps his ERA down and his K/9 ratio up. What bolsters his value is his ability to factor into decisions. Over the last two years, Shields has logged 18 wins, surpassing the likes of both Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Add to those numbers 33 holds (last season) and you have yourself a mighty successful setup man. Still not sold? Angels stud closer Francisco Rodriguez is day-to-day with a tight hammy. Grab Shields now to fill out all of your stats columns.
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres:
Few people on the east coast realize that Gonzalez is even starting, nonetheless putting up solid numbers. Ryan Klesko is out indefinitely due to shoulder surgery and word has it that the Padres aren’t too upset. Gonzalez has filled in by hitting .298 over the first two weeks, crossing the plate ten times. Although the power numbers currently aren’t there (1 HR), fantasy owners could benefit from a first basemen that plays everyday, scores runs and hits for average. Start a trend and pick up Gonzalez now. You will wow your league with west coast fantasy expertise and also benefit from Gonzalez’s ever improving numbers.
Craig Wilson, Pittsburgh Pirates:
Wilson is another quality bat that many fantasy owners have overlooked. He’s expected to act as the Pirates’ everyday first baseman with Sean Casey going on the disabled list with two fractures in his lower back. In fourteen games this season, Wilson is batting .297 with six homers and an astronomical slugging percentage of .865. This is the same Craig Wilson that belted 29 homeruns in 155 games in 2004. With that track record, Wilson should be good for another 10+ homers while Casey misses at least six to eight weeks with the gruesome injury.
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Fantasy Fun: Top Late Round Sleepers
PRESTON WILSON (CF), Houston Astros:
Caution: Wilson will be an injury risk again this year, so the veteran has been slipping far down draft orders everywhere.
Payoff: Preston will benefit from moving from the cavernous RFK to the friendly confines of Minute Maid Juice Park. This is the same Minute Maid that transformed Lance Berkman from an adequately tooled Texan into a perennial superstar.
What to Expect: If he stays relatively healthy, Wilson should improve on his combined power numbers from last year (25 HR, 90 RBI). If you can deal with a .250-.270 batting average, Wilson’s power numbers will not disappoint.
Draft Him…if he slips past the 9th round in your fantasy draft.
WILY MO PENA (RF), Boston Red Sox:
Caution: Pena’s strikeout per at-bat ratio is alarming. Given a full season of plate appearances, Pena has the slim chance to make Adam Dunn look like a disciplined hitter.
Payoff: Wily Mo will likely become a protected, middle of the order bat in one of the best lineups in baseball. At 24, Pena has tremendous upside and is eager for his first chance to produce big numbers in a big market.
What to Expect: With one of the quickest swings in baseball, Pena should abuse the Green Monster night in and night out in a Red Sox lineup that will consistently produce RBI opportunities for the big man.
Draft Him…if Red Sox nation hasn’t already gobbled him up before round 12.
CLINT BARMES (SS), Colorado Rockies:
Caution: Barmes will be one of many young bats in the middle of the Rockies order. Beware of the dreaded sophomore slump.
Payoff: Barmes was walking away with Rookie of the Year honors before suffering a freak injury at the beginning of June last year. He will play in the best offensive park in all of baseball and can fill your SS position if you can’t land Tejada or Furcal.
What to Expect: With power to all fields and a great eye (only 36 K’s in 350 at-bats last year), Barmes should put up numbers comparable to other veteran shortstops at half the price.
Draft Him…if you look at your roster in the late rounds and realize you haven’t fulfilled the SS requirement. Barmes has been falling deep in draft orders, so keep an eye out for a late-round steal.
OLIVER PEREZ (SP), Pittsburgh Pirates:
Caution: He’s a big risk following a woeful 2005 season in which he lost sight of his mechanics.
Payoff: Perez should be a top of the rotation starter for a Pirates team that many are picking to be spoilers in the NL Central. He has the stuff to be a top-10 pitcher and could easily fall into your hands as late as the last two rounds.
What to Expect: If Perez can relocate his late-breaking slider, 12+ wins and 200+ strikeouts are well within reach.
Draft Him…if you are able to hedge the risk by acquiring him in the last 3 rounds.
MARK LORETTA (2B), Boston Red Sox:
Caution: Loretta is 34 and coming off injury.
Payoff: Before his injury plagued campaign last year, Loretta had averaged 15 HR and 75 RBI in his previous two seasons. Those are great numbers for a 2B position.
What to Expect: Barring injury, Loretta is a balanced hitter that defends the plate and puts the ball in play. He should score many runs batting in front of perennial powerhouses Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.
Draft Him…whenever you need a 2b. Loretta is a steal at any round past round 5.
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