If you take a quick glance at the Minnesota Twins 2009 campaign, you might deem it a success since they reached the postseason. But taking a closer look at the numbers and you’ll realize that the Twins were basically a carbon copy of their 2008 selves. The difference was essentially the outcome of the second, division-deciding, one-game playoff in as many years (I mean, their records were almost identical!).

Well, not everything was identical. Last year, I pointed out the dearth of power as the Twins hit the least home runs in the American League and this time around, they managed to increase that number by over 50 long balls. Problem is, along with those gains came some significant losses: Had a lower team batting average, stole less bases, allowed more runs and scored less than in 2008.

Even still, their offense was good enough to get them over the hump, posting the third best average in the majors and scoring the fifth most runs. Pitching, on the other hand, was mediocre: Fifth worse ERA and third worse batting average against.

With that said, there are two areas that the Twins need to focus on this offseason, adding a bat or two to the infield, and solidifying their rotation. By trading for J.J. Hardy, who’ll take over a departing Orlando Cabrera at short, while clearing a bit of the log-jam in the outfield in the process (they shipped the inconsistent Carlos Gomez), they’ve plugged a hole in the infield. Question is, will Hardy be a good replacement over Cabrera or even Brendan Harris, who posted better numbers in ‘08?

The Twins also have a hole at third, as the Joe Crede experiment culminated in a third consecutive offseason back surgery.

Btw, this quote from Scott Boras regearding Crede is priceless:

“The great thing about Joe is you’re hiring on a one-year contract,” Boras said. “It’s not often you’re going to get that level of a player to sign for one year.”

Many names are currently being floated in the internetz as possibilities for the Twins to add to their infield, including Brandon Phillips, Felipe Lopez, and Adrian Beltre, so expect another trade or perhaps a run at a free agent like Orlando Hudson.

The Twins also need to improve their rotation as only three starters made more than 29 starts, so it’s no surprise that GM Bill Smith was openly discussing the possibility of bringing in a veteran arm or two.

As it’s always the case, the Twins will try to make all these moves within the scope of their frugality, and any move will have to be tied to a long-term plan, says Smith. Sure, their new stadium is ready go, but any increase in attendance revenue will only be available next offseason.

- What They Need index -

Look, we could talk about how the Dodgers need a second baseman now that Joe Torre completely alienated Orlando Hudson by benching him in favor of an inferior player down the stretch and in the playoffs, or how the Dodgers need another starting pitcher or two, but why beat around the bush when what the Dodgers clearly need, way more than anything else, is new ownership.

Even before the whole divorce saga exploded, Frank and Jamie McCourt had already worn thin their welcome a long time ago. These are people who forced Ned Colletti add the game’s best catching prospect as a throw-in to the Casey Blake trade just to save a lousy $2 million, but who at the same time were dropping tens of millions of dollars annually on at least 7 massive mansions.

These are owners who have refused to sign even a single one of the team’s young talent to any sort of contract at all, despite the fact that this is the obvious way to secure the long-term competitiveness of the franchise while keeping fan favorites in the fold, instead going to arbitration every single year with every single one of them.

These are owners who doubled down on Ned Colletti, giving him a secret contract of undisclosed length and size “in order to prevent speculation,” apparently not realizing that the best possible way to encourage speculation of all types is to give someone a secret contract, and all this in spite of the fact that almost all of the success the Dodgers have had recently is because of Logan White and Kim Ng and Joe Torre, and actually in spite of Colletti’s “efforts.”

Frank McCourt is the kind of owner who likes to show up in the press box in the middle of a game to “chat” with Vin Scully, blathering on and on about nothing, sometimes for innings at a time, when we are all trying to watch the game and would much rather be listening to the greatest sports broadcaster of all time.

These are the kind of owners, who used money they didn’t even have to buy one of the most storied franchises in baseball, with one of the largest fanbases and revenue streams, and proceeded to run it like it had the revenue stream of the Devil Rays, all while extracting as much income out of it as they could to support their lavish lifestyle.

And yet, instead of recognizing what an incredible stroke of luck they had to get their hands on such a team, and doing their best to keep it, they let their marital troubles spin out of control to the point where probably neither of them will keep the team, and in the meantime the a huge cloud hangs over the whole franchise. Because if you thought the McCourts were loathe to spend money on the actual team before, just wait til you see how little they spend now that they need every last penny to pay their lawyers.

In short, what the Dodgers need more than anything is new ownership, as soon as possible.

- What They Need Index -

The 2009 Mariners became a bit of a darling in the sabermetric world. The proponents of the non-traditional fielding stats such as Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Plus/Minus were actually able to see their beliefs translate to on-field success. You see, the Mariners brought in a group of players rated highly by UZR and +/- but were undervalued in the market due to the fact that they didn’t put up gaudy offensive numbers.

Consequently, the 2009 Mariners finished the year 85-77, which is a much better record than many (myself included) had them pegged for prior to the season. When Russell Branyan was arguably your best hitter, conventional wisdom says that you shouldn’t finish with 85 wins – especially not in the American League. But their stellar defense (only three pitchers on the entire team finished with an ERA higher than their FIP) as well as an elite season from ace Felix Hernandez gave the M’s a 24-win improvement in the span of a year.

So what do they need to do to get to 90+ wins and contend for a playoff spot? The good news is, the Mariners have some play money this year. Aside from the $18M owed to Ichiro and the ludicrous $12.75M going to pay Carlos Silva, Seattle doesn’t have any contract obligations that will cost them more than $5M in 2010. It does not appear that they will re-sign third baseman Adrian Beltre and the money saved there should at least cover the expected arbitration raises for their younger players and then some. Add in the close to $17M that free agent pitchers Miguel Batista and Erik Bedard made (not to mention the god-send that was Kenji Johjima walking away from his contract), and the Mariners have financial capacity. Therefore…

Ease up a tad on the bargain hunting. One of the things that I often write about here on the ol’ blog is the importance of maintaining financial flexibility in terms of payroll. Don’t pay extra for something you’ve already got (like, say, signing a replacement level player or four to seven figure contracts), and only consider future performance instead of past accomplishments (trading any prospect for a 38 year-old former All Star with three years left on a contract is usually not encouraged).  However, bargain hunting often only gets you so far. While guys like Jack Hannahan and Mike Carp will probably add a couple wins on the cheap, they’re not going to add five or six a piece. And the Mariners have a lot of Hannahan-types on their roster. Sometimes, you need to pay some cash and roll the dice. To get to the next level without commiting $300M over the next five years, this is what needs to be done.

Luckily for the Mariners, there are guys worth gambling on, like Ben Sheets or Rich Harden. Yes, the Mariners tried something similar with Erik Bedard last year and got only 83 innings out of the guy before he inevitably got hurt again. Doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea at the time. In this market, I’d imagine that Sheets would have a hard time finding a multi-year deal and could be had for $7-8M plus incentives and that sounds like a reasonable chance to take for a team lacking an impact starter after King Felix.

Offensively, the re-signing of Ken Griffey Jr. was a bad idea for two reasons. One, his on-field production is now replacement level and is therefore not even worth the $2M. Two, he takes up a roster spot (corner OF) that could have been used to bring in some much needed power into the fold. But what’s done is done and now the M’s must figure out how to work their roster with the current conditions.

Bringing back Russell Branyan appears to be a good idea. His injury that ended the season may have been a blessing in disguise for Seattle as there is now a lesser chance that another team will go crazy in pursuing him. With Branyan back at firstbase, that leaves Mike Carp as the primary candidate to be DH. Is he ready? And if Branyan gets hurt again, will Carp be even passable at first? Assuming that Carlos Delgado is out of their price range, someone like Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche seems to make sense, in which case they’d have to decide if they want production (Johnson) or durability (LaRoche).

They could also use an upgrade at second base, as Jose Lopez offers little offensively or defensively.  If I were Seattle, I’d be leery of diving into the free agent market here as neither Orlando Hudson nor Felipe Lopez are ideal situations. Hudson could garner a deal longer than he deserves at his age and diminishing skills while Lopez isn’t a very good defensive option and had a very strong 2009, which makes him a candidate for being overvalued on the market.  But what about trading for someone like the Cubs’ Mike Fontenot, who would be a good platoon partner for Lopez? This route would probably mean that they would have to clear a roster spot (probably Bill Hall), but it is a way for Seattle to make a run at a pitcher and DH with the available funds.

An offensive upgrade could also come from within, as Matt Tuiasosopo (say that five times fast) appears ready to take on a larger role with the team in 2010. Tuisosopo had a respectable line of .261/.368/.473 in AAA-Tacoma and while he’s learning how to play second base, it appears likely that he’s better suited to play a less demanding position at his size (6′2, 225lbs) and could be a better choice at third than the defensively gifted but offensively inept Jack Hannahan.

So while the Mariners have some funds to experiment, they still can’t compete with the big boys in terms of payroll – at least, not as long as they’re paying Carlos Silva. And they would be better off plugging a few holes with those funds than breaking the bank on a Matt Holliday. It’s not easy for an 85-win team to become a playoff contender. But the Mariners have a chance to do just that, so long as they take a chance on some risky names.

- What They Need Index -

The Giants are basically set for the next two years at least in the starting rotation, with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez all under team control til at least 2011 at cost-controlled prices. And with the vaguely serviceable Barry Zito signed til forever and closer Brian Wilson still with 4 years left of arbitration, on the pitching side of things GM Brian Sabian’s job consists of little more than plugging in a 5th starter and filling in a few gaps in the back end of the bullpen from year to year.

The offense, however, is another story.

Even with the emergince of Pablo Sandoval as a superstar-type bat, the Giants still put up the following team numbers:

OBP – .309 (last in the majors)
BB% – 6.7 (last in the majors)
wOBA – .305 (last in the majors)

Yes, that is correct. Despite seeing their third baseman post a slash line of .330/.387/.556, the Giants still had the worst offense in the game – that’s just how bad everyone else on the team was.

Of course, the Giants kind of shot themselves in the foot by benching the player with their second best OBP, left-fielder Fred Lewis, for much of the season behind guys like Nate Schierholtz (a putrid .302 OBP), but Lewis’s OBP that was good enough for second best on the team was still only .348, which tells you something about the kind of “talent” Sabean has assembled in the lineup behind Sandoval.

What they really need is to clone Big Panda.

They Giants are not entirely without hope of improvement. The recently resigned Freddy Sanchez improves the offense at second base a bit, and a full season of highly touted catching prospect Buster Posey might provide a boost, but then again that would require actually playing Posey, rather than letting him rot on the bench behind punchless Eli Whiteside the way Bruch Bochy did all last September.

But the problem is that the Giants already have subpar offensive contributors ensconced at too many positions, with Garko at first, Renteria at short, and Rowand in center. Assuming the Giants are committed to giving Posey some sort of shot and letting either Lewis or Schierholtz play one of the outfield corners, their only real chance to upgrade offensively is at the other outfield corner.

But given how good the Giants pitching is, they have a real shot to go deep into the playoffs if they can add only a modicum of defense, and with huge numbers coming off the books this offseason, they should go for it now, while they have pitching a low prices, by signing a star, run-producing outfielder.

Knowing when your team is on the verge of playoff contention and thus that you should spend big to try to get a few extra wins is a key skill in baseball, and for the Giants the time is now. After all, they won 88 games last year despite having the worst offense around.

In sum, what the Giants need is to start Lewis instead of Schierholtz in right field, play Buster Posey full-time, maybe sign Brad Penny if he’s cheap, and do whatever it takes to sign either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.

What They Need Index

One of the things that always piques my interest is a conversation in regards to “value”. It can be discussed in the abstract sense (leadership, personality, energy, grittitude) or more specifically (WAR, Runs Created, Runs Prevented, Ass Slaps Dished Out To Teammates).

But in my mind, whether you fall into the “pay for intangibles” camp or not, one thing we all ought to be agreeing upon is that salary matters. A guy on a rookie contract is far more valuable than a veteran making $20 million if their on-field production is equal. Having the former allows the GM to go out and spend that money on filling another need for the team.

So I hope to have several of these types of discussions throughout the early portion of the Hot Stove calendar. Today, I’m kicking things off with one guy who I think is one of the most interesting cases – Chone Figgins.

It would not surprise me to learn that the majority of baseball fans still consider Figgins to be a fairly young player. Fact is, he’s not. He didn’t get his first taste of the bigs until he was 24 and didn’t have his first full season until he was 26. By the time Spring Training comes around, Figgins will be 32 years old. For a player whose speed is often touted as the most desirable aspect of his game, this does not bode well for Chone nor anyone who signs him to a multi-year deal.

Looking at the greatest baseball website of all time, they have Bip Roberts, Patsy Tebeau, Jack Rothrock, Mookie Wilson, and Sam Mertes as Figgins’ top statistically comparable players through the age of 30. Out of those five, only Mertis was able to produce at the league average level once they hit 33 years of age and that year (1906) was still a steep dropoff from his previous levels of production.

Another aspect of Figgins’ reputation that I personally feel is overvalued is his versatility. Is there value to this? Absolutely, as long as he isn’t awful (I mean, Adam Dunn can call himself a shortstop. Doesn’t mean you want him there). It does give managers and GMs some flexibility when you know that a certain player can be moved around the diamond without much negative repercussions.

But is Figgins really that player? Or is it essentially a myth that continues to be propagated? We know that Figgins is a pretty good third baseman. Both UZR and +/- has him as above average at the position. He is also respectable at second base as well, although information is limited due to the fact that he doesn’t play second very often anymore. And as he grows older, we’ll see him there less and less. He hasn’t played SS or CF since 2006, and again, as he approaches his mid-thirties, we should expect this to continue. So at this point, he’s pretty much a 3B full time who can be a 2B in a pinch (think Mark Teahen, but, you know, good).

However, there is one aspect of Figgins’ game that does tend to age well. His plate discipline has actually been improving over these past couple of seasons. In 2007, Figgins swung at 22.3% of pitches thrown outside the stroke zone according to FanGraphs. For a guy with as little power as Figgins, this is too high. So he came back in 2008 and performed much better, to the tune of 16.5% and followed that up with a 14.9% this season, 4th lowest among all qualified hitters. This is important since not only has this resulted in a career high .395 OBP in 2009, it allows him to maintain a higher than normal BABiP (making contact with pitches out of the zone will often end poorly unless you are Vlad Guerrero).

So with all this information at our disposal, I ask – what’s the value of Chone Figgins? Since 2007, FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth a total of $50.9 million, with a high of $27.4 million in 2009 (while getting paid a paltry $5.78 million). But with Figgins finally eligible for free agency, would you pay Figgins $50 million over the next three years?

Let the discussion begin!

When the Tampa Bay Rays signed LF/DH Pat Burrell to a 2-year $16 million contract this past off-season, I thought that the defending AL champs had gotten a steal – especially in comparison to the 3-year $31.5 million deal that his replacement in Philadelphia, Raul Ibanez, would garner from Burrell’s old team. And while I won’t make final judgments until these two contracts are completed, it’s looking like I was wrong. Very, very wrong.

While Ibanez was posting career-best numbers as a 37-year old Phillie, Burrell was doing the exact opposite in Tampa. His walk rate is below career norms, he’s striking out more often than he has in several seasons and his power has seemingly disappeared (.385 SLG? Who are you?).

To his credit, the guy isn’t making excuses for himself. But that also means that we don’t quite know if there’s something wrong that can be fixed during the off-season.

There are, however, potential explanations for his dip in performance that could portend a much better season in 2010:

1. The talent gap between the AL East and NL East. Especially over the past few seasons, the quality of pitching in the NL East has been slightly underwhelming. Johan Santana didn’t enter the division until 2008 so the only top-level SP that Burrell had to face consistently over the last few seasons was John Smoltz. Now in the big boys league, he has to face the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Can Burrell adjust to the higher quality pitching at the age of 33? I haven’t the faintest.
2. Hiding an injury. You wouldn’t expect a player to have such a dramatic drop in power numbers from one season to another and especially not at Burrell’s age. This is a guy who had slugged over .500 from 2005-2008. How does he become a sub-.400 slugger seemingly overnight? If he had a serious injury, that would explain quite a lot.
3. He’s done this before. The main reason why I don’t believe that Pat Burrell is washed up is because of his 2003 season. A year prior to that, the then-26-year old had a very strong line of .282/.376/.544 with 37 HRs. He had become on of the  better offensive threats in the National League. But he followed it up with a very disappointing season where he batted .209/.309/.404 with 21 HRs. And despite a wrist injury in 2004, his numbers rebounded very well and he was a solid hitter for the rest of his stay in Philadelphia. No actual reason (none that I saw, anyway) was ever really given for his sharp drop in production in 2003.

I am not going to say that any of these potential reasons are correct because at this point, I have no way of knowing anything. But I will say that Burrell most likely is not done, simply because it’s rare for a 33 year old hitter to fall off such a steep cliff. There’s got to be a reason aside from “decline” that ruined Burrell’s 2009 season. I just don’t quite know what that reason may be.

Because people will be upset if I wrote about Burrell and didn't include this photo...

So I’m watching Gary “Sarge” Matthews talk about today’s Phils-Braves pitching matchup, Cliff Lee vs. Tommy Hanson, and Sarge refers to Lee as “a certain, maybe, Hall-of-Famer.”

And I don’t know what certain-maybe means, but Lee is not a certain Hall of Famer, and he’s not maybe a Hall of Famer. Lee is a very good pitcher who seems to have finally figured it all out after a couple down years and a demotion to the minors in 2007. But Lee, who is 30, has had exactly one season with an ERA under 3.00, he’s never struck out 200 batters in a season, and if he averages 20 wins a year over the next 10 seasons, he still won’t reach 300 wins.

Sarge is the man because he wears cool hats and he’s friends with Obama. But jeez, that guy says some crazy stuff.

A while back, we questioned the notion that the Braves’ trade for Adam LaRoche was about 2010. Today we’ll take a look at who might play 1B for Atlanta next season.

The contenders:

1. Adam LaRoche, the team’s current 1B, will be a free agent at the end of the season and could be resigned.

2. Chipper Jones, who has had a horrid season at third base, leading the league in errors and posting a -10.1 UZR, might benefit from a move to first.

3. Freddie Freeman is a first baseman and one of the organization’s top prospects, but probably won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2011 or, at the earliest, late 2010.

4. Martin Prado has had a good year, playing mostly at second base but also spending time at 1B and 3B and hitting .291/.342/.429.

5. Nick Johnson and Carlos Delgado are two other free agent first basemen, and are both injury risks.

So what’s Atlanta to do? Let’s analyze the situation:

• Move Chipper to 1B. This seems obvious, right? The Braves need a first baseman and Chipper seemingly can no longer hack it at third. Moving him to first would keep his bat in the lineup and hopefully help him stay off the DL. But here’s the rub: if Chipper moves to 1B he’ll be blocking Freeman, who could be ready for the bigs as soon as June. And Chipper is signed through 2011, so Freeman would potentially be stuck at triple-A until 2012.
• Make Martin Prado the first baseman. Prado has had a pretty decent season serving as Atlanta’s super utility player, hitting .291/.342/.429. The Braves could move him to first, where he’s played decent defense in 2009, until Freeman is ready. Unfortunately, this move wouldn’t solve the problem of Jones’ deteriorating fielding ability, and Atlanta would be crossing their fingers that Jones’ bad year in the field was an anomaly. Jones had an almost equally bad season at third in 2006, but rebounded to play average defense in 2007 and was a stellar fielder last season. Maybe he’ll make a similar recovery in 2010? Maybe. But he’s at the age when a dramatic defensive improvement is unlikely.
• Bring back LaRoche. This would be the safe play, as you pretty much know what you’re getting with LaRoche. On the other hand, what you’re getting really isn’t that great, and there’s little reason to think that he’d be any better than Prado, who is already under contract.
• Sign another free agent. Other free agent first basemen include Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson, but both come with injury concerns. On the plus side, signing a free agent first baseman would allow Atlanta to play Prado at second base in 2010, where he’d most likely represent an offensive upgrade over Kelly Johnson, who has never lived up to expectations.

My advice? Atlanta should sign a free agent 2B, shift Prado to 3B and move Chipper to first. Both Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson will be available this winter and both would represent a drastic improvement over Kelly Johnson, who started 2009 as Atlanta’s 2B before getting benched.

Sure, Chipper would be blocking Freeman, but only until Chipper strains an oblique or herniates a disk in his back, or comes down with some other inevitable injury. And when he does Atlanta can call up Freeman for a tryout with the big club. And if Freeman hits so well that Atlanta is forced to keep him in the lineup even after Chipper returns from the DL, well, that’ll be a good problem to have.