Here we go again. Time for another edition of our semi-annual “What They Need” series, where we play GM for all 30 teams. As usual, we’ll be suggesting subtle tweaks for some squads, and major overhalls for others. There’s already movement … [visit site to read more]

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I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I am saying that it could.

Let’s look at the positives.  First of all, the Nationals definitely have a high-powered offense. By most measures they’ve had the fourth or fifth-best offense in the National league this season, right up there with hard-hitting teams like the Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers.

Second of all, the Nationals finally have a real GM. Mike Rizzo has just recently had the “interim” label removed from his title, and deservedly so, as he has done just about everything right since taking over for the hilariously incompetent Jim Bowden. Rizzo also has a track record of success as the scouting director of the Diamondbacks during the period they developed many of their current stars, and has a proven eye for talent.

Third, the Nationals have actually been quite “unlucky” this season by several measures, not least of which is their run differential, which suggests that they should actually have about 10 more wins than they’ve actually recorded.

Fourthly, the areas where the Nats most need to improve – the bullpen and on defense, are the areas most easily improved from season to season. In this way, it is possible to make a comparison between the 2009 Nationals and the 2007 Devil Rays. Both were terrible teams with terrible defense and terrible bullpens that drastically underperformed against an already terrible run differential. As you will recall, that Tampa Bay team went to the World Series the following year.

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Pujols polishes his wood

We here at Umpbump have done quite a few all-time teams. We’ve also cataloged quite a series of visit site to read more]

But as we close in on the two month mark, it is becoming increasingly more clear that New Yankee Stadium is one of the greatest home run parks of all time.

Indeed, in only its first season, the stadium is already on pace to smash the mark for most home runs hit at a ballpark in a single season.  The current record was set at pre-humidor Coors Field in 1999, when 303 homers were bashed (making Coors only stadium ever to surpass 300 thus far). But with 82 homers hit at Yankee Stadium already in only 22 games, the stadium is on pace for a ridiculous 317 homers this year.

Averaged out, an astounding 3.91 homers per game have been hit in the Bronx so far this season. By comparison, 1.98 homers were hit per game at Old Yankee Stadium last season, which is right around the typical American League average of about 2.00 per game.

What went wrong

So what exactly is wrong with New Yankee Stadium?  Well, recent wind studies have demonstrated that the new ballpark is about 20% more likely than the old one on any given day to have a wind blowing out to the outfield of 10 mph or more, with the likelihood increasing even further in the spring and fall. Given that a tail wind of 10 miles per hour will cause a typical borderline homerun ball to travel about 25 feet further, a significant assist that is only increased as the windspeed goes up.

Just watching the highlights of the homers hit out of New Yankee Stadium so far, this wind assist is plain to see. Anything hit fairly high in the air takes off once it gets into the wind, especially to right field. Guys are hitting home runs one handed, or even when they get jammed or get too far under the ball.  And when players actually do hit the ball right on the screws, they are hitting monstrous bombs.

Only adding to the homer woes, the stadium designers pulled a fast one with the dimensions in right field.  Although the most often cited dimensions, such as down the foul lines and to straightaway center are the same as the old park, thus preserving “Yankee tradition,” the designers flattened out the sharp dogleg in the right field wall, meaning that in some places, the right field wall is as much as nine feet closer to home plate in the new stadium.

This is pretty huge, and very significant when the old stadium was already legendary for having one of the shortest right field porches in the entire game (allegedly designed for the Babe).  Already this season somewhere in the region of ten homers have been hit out to right field that would not have gone out in the old stadium, just judging by distance alone, before wind is even taken into account.

What to do now

It’s obviously a little too late to go back and fix a $1.5 billion stadium.  And I’m actually of the opinion that having different stadiums that play differently is one of baseball’s charms, unlike football or basketball where the dimensions are always identical.

But what the Yankees do need to do is build a team that will be best suited to their stadium. And they need to start now.  Here are my recommendations:

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For all the bile and hatred Bud Selig and his New Media Goons invoked a few years ago with their DirecTV exclusive deal, you’ve … [visit site to read more]

My personal definition of an “unquestioned ace” differs from the typical usage of calling the best pitcher on each team that team’s “ace” by default, even if they are not that good. “Unquestioned aces” are true number-one starters: pitchers a manager would gladly start against anyone, anytime. In any given year there are only a small handful of such pitchers in all of baseball.

Being named an “unquestioned ace” is about more than just numbers. A pitcher has to have a certain extra something that strikes fear into the hearts of batters.  However, an unquestioned ace is generally a pitcher who can be relied upon to pitch at least 200 innings, win at least 16 games, and post an ERA of at least 3.75 or better.

The “unquestioned” part is the most important criterion, however.  There must be absolutely no question in anyone’s mind that the said pitcher is a true ace.  Even a rumor of injury or loss of velocity in spring training is enough to bump someone from the list, as long as there are any questions about their ability to dominate in the upcoming season. It generally also means that a pitcher has pitched at least two superlative seasons in a row,  as otherwise there will almost surely be questions as to whether the previous season was a just fluke or not.

This years unquestioned aces are:

Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Roy Oswalt
CC Sabathia
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb

So what do you think? Did I leave anyone out? Did I include someone undeserving?

Aces from previous years after the jump…

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In the end, we managed to come up with pretty good squads for visit site to read more]

For some teams, such as the Italian team (a total of six native-born players), fielding a roster of native-born major-leaguers is challenging, if not impossible.That’s not the case with creating an all-time team from the Dominican Republic. The DR has sent 472 sons of the soil to the majors, more than any other foreign country. More than 42 US states, too, as a matter of fact. Since they have such a large pool to draw from, I am not going to go the route of some of my fellow Umpbumpers and use American-born players of Dominican descent or argue that a guy with 12 starts at centerfield deserves to start there on the All-Time team. Ahem.

Lineup:

Designated Hitter – David Ortiz – David Ortiz finished the five seasons from 2003 – 2007 in the top five of MVP voting, an impressive feat – but downright incredible when you consider that many voters refuse to support a full-time DH for the honor. Since coming to the Red Sox (in 2003), he did not hit fewer than 30 home runs until last year, when he only played in 109 games. Even in 2007, a supposed “off-year” in the eyes of the media, he recorded his highest-ever OPS+ at a ridiculous 171.

Left Field – Manny Ramirez – Somehow, in between all the hijinks and shenanigans, Manuel Aristides Onelcida Ramirez has amassed, in 16 years in the majors, 527 homers and 2,393 hits. Given how he plays when he’s motivated – he hit 17 homers in 53 games with the Dodgers last year after hitting 20 dingers in 100 games with the Red Sox – can you imagine what he could have accomplished by now if he hadn’t been faking those knee injuries and striking out on purpose? But in the bottom of the 9th when your team is down a run and there’s a man on base, there’s still no one you’d rather have at the plate than this future Hall of Famer. And he just gets tougher with two strikes against him.

Right Field – Vladimir Guerrero – While Manny had scouts drooling over him when he was in high school, Vladi had to prove he could play ball. His older brothers, Elisier and Wilton, had already been scouted by the Dodgers, but they weren’t sure about Vladimir’s strange-looking body and ungainly movements. Well, little bro gets the last laugh. A career .323 hitter who hits what he wants to – whether or not it’s in the strike zone – he’s also just 8 shy of 400 homers. Despite looking like an old man when he runs (there’s that ungainly physique again) he’s still only 32 and, for the last 13 years, has been one of the game’s more durable stars. (And for those of you who might wish I had gone with Sammy Sosa, well – yes, Slammin’ Sammy certainly epitomized his, um, era. A seven-time All-Star, the 1998 NL MVP, 609 career home runs. But Guerrero still has a better career OPS+, so I don’t feel too bad about going with Vlad. That rhymed.)

Center Field – Cesar Cedeno – from his debut in June of 1970 at the age of 19 until his retirement from baseball 16 years later, Cedeno had six years where he had 50+ steals and three years where he had 20+ homers. He also had a couple of neat years where he hit .320. Welcome to the team, Cesar.

Third Base – Aramis Ramirez – Expecting to see Alex Rodriguez here? Well, too bad. A-Rod was born in New York, NY so he doesn’t count towards the REAL Dominican team. But A-Ram, on the other hand, hails from Santo Domingo, DR. And in 8 seasons as a regular, he’s averaged 29.6 home runs per season. Not too shabby.

Shortstop – Hanley Ramirez - There are a lot of great Dominican shortstops out there. Tejada. Reyes. Fernandez. But after just three full seasons in the majors, Hanley beats ‘em all. The 25-year old phenom is just approaching his prime and already averages 27 home runs a season with a career OBP of .379. These averages are depressed slightly by what would turn out – in hindsight – to be a lackluster debut season (only 17 dingers; just a .353 OBP). But that rough first year was still impressive enough for him to scoop up a Rookie of the Year trophy. Last year saw him add an All-Star nomination and a Silver Slugger award. An MVP nod surely won’t be far behind. And yes, his defense ain’t great. But you know what? It’s better than Derek Jeter’s. So there.

Second Base – Luis Castillo -A three-time Gold Glover and three-time All Star, Castillo also has a World Series ring from his days with the Florida Marlins. After 13 seasons in the bigs, he has amassed a career .292 average and a .363 OBP. So his career 27 homers aren’t going to blow anyone away. But 342 stolen bases aren’t anything to shake a stick at! Even so, I nearly went with Placido Polanco, who hits for more power. Close call.

First Base – Albert Pujols - It seems almost silly to have to make a case for Albert Pujols, but I’ll play along. Born in Santo Domingo in 1980, Pujols is 28 years old, has never missed significant time, has won two MVP awards (and come in second three times) and was the 2001 Rookie of the Year. His career OBP is .425. He has never hit fewer than 30 home runs in a season. Never. Not even one time. Yes, your girlfriend would rather be with him. But face it: so would you.

Catcher – Tony Pena – Yes, his career .309 OBP is downright hideous, as is his career 84 OPS+. But he did hit .300 a couple of times. And twice he slugged 15 (count ‘em!) home runs. He debuted at age 23 and managed to hang around until he was 40. And he was the 2003 Manager of the Year for the Kansas City Royals!

Bench - Jose Reyes, Miguel Tejada, Placido Polanco, Carlos Pena, Sammy Sosa, Alfonso Soriano, Rico Carty, Tony Fernandez, Jose Offerman (you know, for those bench-clearing brawls)

SP1 – Pedro Martinez - They called him El Duro in the Dominican – the Hard One. He has famously long, crazily-jointed fingers that create more spin on the ball than the ball knows what to do with. He once told Tom Verducci, “There are days when I first get out to the mound and it feels just like this, like the plate is closer than it’s supposed to be. Then I know right away. It’s over. You are f——-. F——-.” Even though he has not been able to find an employer yet this year, he still owns the best winning percentage of any active pitcher. I am almost certain that Pedro lied about his age when he was first signed – the age of his grown son strongly suggests at least a little fibbing – but there is no doubt that the three-time Cy Young winner is the ace of the Dominican staff. He has amassed not only an impressively long, consistent career – a 2.91 ERA over 17 seasons, with a career 151 ERA+ – but achieved a peak that has not been matched by any other man. In 1999, the annus mirabilis that saw him robbed of his dual MVP and Cy Young awards by a couple of douchebag writers, he logged a 2.07 ERA and 313 strikeouts over 213.3 innings. His record: 23-4. His ERA+: 243. While the following year, his win totals and strikeouts were down, he finished the year having pitched 217 innings with an ERA of 1.74 and an ERA+ of 291. Why do I feel the need to recite all of these well-known stats? I guess, somehow, even though I was there and watching – glued to the old TV during that 17-strikeout game against the Yankees – I still can’t believe it really happened. That’s how good he was. Now I have to move on before my head explodes.

SP2 – Juan Marichal - It may seem a little crass to put the Hall of Famer second, but it’s only a matter of time until Pedro is inducted anyway. After 16 years in the majors, Marichal retired with an ERA under 3. He never won a Cy Young, but he was a perennial all-star and a six-time 20 game winner. (And, through modern eyes, it seems pretty bad-ass that he broke the 300-innings barrier three times.)

SP3 – Ramon Martinez – He won 20 games once and 17 games twice, and also threw a no-hitter and once struck out 18 batters (in a game Nick was at!).

SP4 – Jose Rijo - Six consecutive seasons of sub-3.00 ERAs helped fuel a 1990 World Series sweep in which the Reds hurler earned two of the victories – and the Series MVP award. Though he often struggled with injuries and was out of baseball between age 30 and age 36 with elbow problems, he did return – albeit briefly – in 2001 and 2002, lifting the hearts of Cincinnatans everywhere. Or, you know, in Cincinnati. Unfortuantely, this uplifting tale – which saw Rijo win a Tony Conigliaro Award – has taken a recent sad twist, with Rijo being fired from the Nationals after one of his Dominican scouting finds was discovered to be  a totally different person – and, like, a totally older person.

SP5 – Bartolo Colon – Would you believe that Colon has a .607 career winning percentage? Colon is a former Cy Young-winner and a two-time 20 game winner, even though his career ERA is a hardly ace-like 4.09. Well, I guess he’ll round out the rotation anyway.

Relievers: Rafael Perez, Damaso Marte, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Octavio Dotel, Armando Benitez, Mel Rojas, Jose Mesa, Alejandro Pena

CL – Francisco Cordero

Manager – Felipe Alou

Final Verdict – Just for fun, I plugged the career OBPs and SLGs of this lineup into the lineup analysis tool at Baseball Musings. This had the unfortunate impact of wiping out some players’ impressive career peaks, but the overall result was still heartening:  an average of 6.17 runs per game, with the ideal lineup producing 6.426 runs per game. But we don’t need a fancy interwebby gizmo to tell us that a lineup featuring Hanley, Prince Albert, Papi, Manny, and Vladi is going to score a lot of runs. As for the pitching, the DR’s team features one Hall of Famer, one future Hall of Famer, and a back-end of guys who were all, at one time, team aces. Sure, Felipe Alou would have his hands full – but as far as I can tell, this fearsome Dominican squad would lose to only one foe:

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