The Marlins finished in second place in 2009, but the reality is they only scored 6 more runs than they allowed and the third-place Braves had a much better run differential. So Florida will have to improve more than a little if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot in 2010.

Offense isn’t a big problem for the Fish. In 2009, the Marlins scored more runs than every NL team except for the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers and Rockies. But run prevention was a weakness. Division rivals Atlanta and Philadelphia allowed fewer runs.

As usual, the Marlins will insist on spending the bare minimum. Fortunately, improving this team shouldn’t cost much.

The biggest thing Florida can do to improve in 2010 is take Emilio Bonifacio, strap him to a rocket, and shoot him into space. Florida’s insistence on starting Bonifacio at third base and batting him leadoff for much of 2009 cost the team valuable runs. That can’t happen again.

Unfortunately, it might happen again. In his column today, Peter Gammons suggested that the Marlins will probably play Bonifacio at second base in 2010 (after they trade incumbent 2B Dan Uggla to shed payroll):

But if Emilio Bonifacio can play second base and improve his .303 on-base percentage, the Marlins pretty much know who and what they are going to be in 2010.

Bonifacio at second isn’t nearly as great a sin as Bonifacio at third, which is a position where teams generally field a player who contributes power and OBP. But Bonifacio, even if he proves to be a decent defender, should never again be allowed to bat leadoff. Never. Again.

If the Marlins are smart and get rid of Bonifacio altogether, that’ll open up holes at first base and third (assuming free agent 1B Nick Johnson signs elsewhere). Jorge Cantu can plug one of those holes — most likely third base. He’s no Brooks Robinson. Far, far from it. UZR hates Cantu at third. But he’s got decent pop and he’s relatively cheap and he’s in what should be his prime, and because of his defensive struggles he’s got little trade value. So he’ll have to do.

At first base, Gaby Sanchez should be given a shot at the big time after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A. Logan Morrison is probably another year or two away, but could be ready by midseason.

With Uggla on his way out and Bonifacio an unappealing option, rookie of the year Chris Coghlan is another guy to consider at second base. At least, I think he can play second base. He played there in the minor leagues. If he could handle the position in 2010 that would be really great for the Fish. If he can’t, I suppose Florida could put him back in left field, though he wasn’t particularly good there last season. Actually, let me rephrase that. He was particularly bad in left last season. Bill James says he was the 34th best LF in the game, and he cost his team 16 runs, compared to the average left fielder. In fairness, Coghlan had never played the outfield before last season, and he’s likely improve in 2010, given the chance. But he’d have to improve a lot to justify running him out there again.

Florida is set with Camerin Maybin in CF and Cody Ross in one of the corner spots. The Fish are said to be in the market for another corner outfielder (again assuming Coghlan moves to the infield), and presumably Matt Holliday isn’t an option. But there are a couple of free agents out there who might be lured by the prospect of an everyday gig. Maybe Randy Winn, Eric Hinske or Coco Crisp?

As for Florida’s pitching, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are an incredibly solid 1-2 punch. Chris Volstad wasn’t good in 2009, but the 23-year-old groundball pitcher has a good shot at improving in 2010 if he can just surrender a few fewer flyballs. Even if Volstad doesn’t improve his flyball percentage this season, it’s unlikely he’ll once again give up homers at a 17.5% clip.

Andrew Miller, Sean West and Anibal Sanchez can fight it out for the final two rotation spots, and Florida would be wise to pick up a veteran SP to push the youngsters and give Florida one more option for the rotation. Doug Davis or Carl Pavano would be nice pick-ups, if the price were right. And let’s face it, in order for Florida to sign anyone, the price will have to be right.

Conclusion: I’d love to see Florida sign Crisp, who would do a lot to bolster the team’s defense. An outfield of Crisp, Maybin and Ross would be a defensive juggernaut. The real questions are 1. Can Coghlan play second base? 2. Can Cantu provide close to average defense at third? 3. Can Josh Johnson stay healthy? and 4. Can Sanchez hit big league pitching?

That’s a lot of questions, and I’m sure I forgot a few. A lot would have to go right for the Marlins to compete in 2010. But this is a young team, and young teams can sometimes surprise us.

What They Need Index

As a Phillies fan, the Braves’ rotation is keeping me up at night. Derek Lowe. Tim Hudson (who just signed a three-year deal). Jair Jurrjens. Tommy Hanson. Javier Vazquez. Good god almighty, that is a solid five.

Oh, and don’t forget about Kenshin Kawakami, who posted a 3.86 ERA in 2009 and is under contract for another two seasons. He’s a pretty decent insurance plan.

Suffice it to say, Atlanta doesn’t need to worry about their starting pitching. What they do need to worry about is first base. And left field. And right field. And the bullpen. And Chipper Jones’ fragile, quickly deteriorating body.

Last season it took Atlanta a few months to figure out a lineup that could score runs. Once they realized Martin Prado was the answer at second base, and replaced Jordan Schaffer with Nate McLouth and Jeff Francoeur with Ryan Church, they were cooking with gas.

They also traded for Adam LaRoche, who provided his usual second-half fireworks. But now LaRoche is a free agent, and Atlanta is faced with the option of re-signing him and enduring his usual first-half craptitude, or pursuing another option. LaRoche’s first-half/second-half splits are real. His first-half OPS: .773. His second-half OPS: .909. Rather than bringing him back, a better plan would be moving Chipper Jones to first base. Jones’ defense appears to be slipping, but his bat is still potent. At first base he’d be more likely to stay healthy and he’d cost the team fewer runs on defense.

Who would play third if Chipper moved to first? Pedro Feliz will likely be available and nobody has a stronger, more accurate arm. Other free agents include Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa, but those guys will likely prove too expensive for the cash-strapped Braves. Melvin Mora and Placido Polanco are other options.

Last season, Matt Diaz played a big chunk of games in left field and did quite well. But Diaz is traditionally poor against righties and the Braves might want to keep him in a platoon. Fortunately, Atlanta has Ryan Church, who hits righties OK enough (.280/.353/.460). Diaz and Church can split time in left field, while rookie Jason Heyward can play right field if he makes the team out of spring training. Rob Neyer says, “Heyward’s first time in Double-A came this summer, when he was just turning 20. In 47 games he struck out 19 times, drew 28 walks, and posted a .446 on-base percentage.” So he’s going to be good. If Heyward needs some more minor league seasoning, Diaz/Church could shift to right field and the Braves could sign a free agent or trade for a left fielder. The AJC’s Dave O’Brien says not to dismiss rumors that Atlanta might trade for Florida 2B Dan Uggla and shift him to LF. I’m not sure I endorse that idea, but it’s one option.

Finally, we’ve got the bullpen. Between them, the Braves’ dual closers had as many blown saves in 2009 as Brad Lidge. That’s not good. On the other hand, their combined ERAs were still more than a run lower than Lidge’s. So let’s not go crazy bashing them. Mike Gonzalez walked a few too many batters, but mostly he and Rafael Soriano were just a little unlucky. The Braves paid them a total of about $10MM in 2009, and if they can sign them to similar deals in 2010 they should bring them back. Otherswise, there are plenty of free agent bullpen arms out there.

Ultimately, that’s all Atlanta needs. Shift Chipper to first and sign Feliz and you improve your infield defense. Create a Diaz/Church platoon, and you’ve improved over last year’s Diaz/Garrett Anderson platoon. Uggla/Heyward/Anyone-else in the other corner outfield spot is better than Jeff Francoeur, last year’s starting right fielder. A full season of Prado will be an improvement over a Kelly Johnson/Prado split.

The rumor is the Braves are going to trade one of their pitchers, most likely Lowe, Vazquez or Kawakami, to reduce payroll and land a left fielder with pop. I think the team should hang onto it’s pitching depth. They’re not the Giants. They’re not desperate for offense. They were fifth in OBP last season, sixth in wOBP, and fifth in runs scored. As for the team’s payroll situation, I’m not an accountant, but I don’t think my plan, which calls for signing one free agent position player (Feliz) and a couple of bullpen arms, is too extravagent.

- What They Need Index -

Obviously, the Phillies are no fluke. And it’s temping to suggest that they should stand pat this offseason. After all, all the team’s best players are under contract for next season, and the rotation figures to be strong, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer returning, and minor league prospect Kyle Drabek waiting for a chance at the big time.

But, as Rob Neyer says, “Baseball teams are like sharks: If they’re not moving forward, they’re dying.” The Phillies and GM Ruben Amaro seem to understand this. After all, Amaro’s big move last winter was signing Raul Ibanez and letting Pat Burrell walk. Is there any doubt that swapping Burrell for Ibanez was the difference between the Phils winning the east and sitting at home in October? Ibanez was worth 4.2 wins above replacement in 2009, while Burrell was worth -0.6, and would have been worth even less if the Rays had allowed him to play left field.

This offseason, the Phils have already made waves by cutting ties with SP/RP Brett Myers (due to excess douchiness) and announcing that they are looking to upgrade at third base.

Do the Phillies need to upgrade at 3B? No. Pedro Feliz’s outstanding defense makes him a valuable guy. But the Phils’ front office apparently can no longer stomach his craptastic hitting, and that’s understandable. So what are the options?

From MLB Trade Rumors:

There are several third base options on the free agent market that could pique Amaro’s interest. Both Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins would represent a significant offensive upgrade at the position, and according to UZR/150, they’d even provide a defensive boost over Feliz’s already sterling glovework.

Figgins would be a great addition to the Phils, as he would add even more speed to the lineup and could supplant Jimmy Rollins as the team’s leadoff hitter. And whether or not Figgins comes to Philly, the Fightins need a new leadoff hitter. It is no longer tenable to allow a guy with a sub-.300 OBP to leadoff.

Beltre would likely provide a more cost-effective solution at third, as he is coming off an injury plagued 2009. But while Beltre would bring more power, he’d be another OBP-suck (though not as bad as Feliz or Rollins), while Figgins OBP has steadily improved each of the past few seasons.

Outside of 3B, the Phils need to figure out Brad Lidge and the rest of the bullpen. Neyer put this pretty succinctly in a recent post:

The Phillies won 93 games this year. Brad Lidge blew 11 saves and lost eight games. The key ingredient in another 93-win recipe is a closer who instead blows five saves and loses four games. Those guys are out there, and they don’t all cost a great deal of money. Ruben Amaro isn’t likely to get super-creative this winter; general managers of pennant-winning teams rarely do. But he just has to be creative enough to find a couple of dependable relief pitchers. Which is one of the easiest things in professional sports.

Conclusion: Figgins would be a great addition, but will likely cost too much. If the Phils don’t land him they should sign Beltre or bring back Feliz, and turn their attention to improving the bullpen and adding a couple of decent bench players (Eric Bruntlett, you are the weakest link). And they should shift Shane Victorino into the leadoff spot and bat Rollins second. Or ninth. Whatever.

What They Need Index

It took two months, but we finally wrapped up our Hot Offseason Action series. The team with the best grade? The Tampa Bay Rays, who signed Pat “The Bat” Burrell to a bargain basement contract and traded for potential future star Matt Joyce. The Yankees also got some props for their extravagant offseason, bringing in Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. That ain’t bad.

The Astros, Royals and Blue Jays all got panned for their offseasons of outrageousness. The ‘Stros continue to delude themselves, thinking they’ll content despite an aging roster and a shortage of pitching. The Royals continue to ignore the importance of OBP. And the Blue Jays…they didn’t do much of anything and worse, don’t seem to have much of a plan.

You can see all of our Hot Offseason Action grades here.

Last year, writing the season preview for the Texas Rangers, I was feeling a little, well, limp. So I had to rely on the little-blue-pill of the writing world: the exclamation point! And indeed, in retrospect, the exclamation point was the aptest possible punctuation mark for the 2008 Rangers. Pitching: terrible!!!! Offense: unstoppable!!!!!!

Hamilton knocked in 130 in '08

But ultimately, as amazing as Texas’s offense was last year –  scoring 901 runs for far and away the best mark in the AL — the Rangers still finished 21 games out of first in the AL West. As fantastic as their offense was, their pitching was even more fantastically bad, allowing 967 runs — also far and away the league’s worst mark. Their team also finished dead last in MLB in defensive efficiency.

But if the 2008 season demanded exclamation points, the appropriate mark of punctuation for the 2009 season is: ?

The question mark.

So will this year be different?

In an October article for Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein listed the Rangers as a candidate to be “the next Rays.” Is that crazy? Well, Goldstein recently ranked their farm system second in MLB. Keith Law ranked them first.

Young and (almost) ready: Feliz was born in 1988, but could be the staff ace by September

Both agree that their system is deep and talented, and flush with young pitching.

When will those young arms contribute? For the two most advanced prospects, Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, it could be later this season. However, they won’t really be ready to assume regular, major league roles until next year.

What about the defense? Will their focus on improving their glove work in spring training pay off? Will the infield defense improve with a corps of regulars – instead of a rotisserie of different fielders? Will Michael Young be any better at third than he was at short? And will I ever understand why they gave him a Gold Glove last year? Will anticipated rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus be able to make the most out of his good arm, speed, and range, while avoiding the errors that plagued him at the lower levels? And will Omar Vizquel excel as Crash Davis to Andrus’ Nuke LaLoosh?

Can the offense repeat last year’s stunning performance? While they lost free agent Milton Bradley — the team’s OBP leader, at .436 over 126 games –  Marlon Byrd is a not-too-shabby replacement (OBP’ed .380 over 122 games) and comes without the ominous emotional forecast (partly crazy, 20% chance of rage). A full season of Chris Davis, and a good year from breakout candidate Jarrod Saltalamacchia, could also soften the blow.

Aging fast: putative ace Millwood seems like he's been around forever, and plays like it too, but is actually only 33.

Was it a mistake for GM Jon Daniels to focus only on minor-league deals, and give up on Ben Sheets? I don’t think so – the Rangers will have enough pitching by 2010 to support their offense. And if they continue to work on their team defense, they might actually start to make their pitchers look good. Or, you know, as good as they can look in Arlington. One thing that confused me, though, was why Daniels was interested in Sheets (of all pitchers) when the Rangers had trouble last year with injured starters. Last year, the “workhorse” of the team was Vincente Padilla, with 171 innings pitched. Otherwise, only Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman crossed the 150 innings mark — and indeed, the trio of Padilla, Millwood, and Feldman were the only Ranger pitchers to cross the 100 innings mark. What these Rangers need is not a fragile genius, but a steady guy who can take the hill every fifth day and give ‘em seven decent innings. If they were targeting anyone, you would have expected them to go for someone like Derek Lowe, whose groundballs might occasionally give their spotty defense trouble, but who at least (theoretically) wouldn’t let too many balls leave the park. Wouldn’t you?

But all in all, this was a fine offseason by the Rangers – don’t you think? They clearly know their young pitchers won’t really be ready until next year, so this winter wasn’t the time to panic or do anything ca-rayzay. They made some solid moves to develop their positional prospects. They signed two former Gold Glovers to minor league deals. The Rangers have a realistic view of their future – and how many teams can you say that about?

Grade: A-?

Added (all on minor league deals): Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Kris Benson, Brendan Donnelly, Eddie Guardado, Jason Jennings
Lost: Milton Bradley, Ramon Vazquez, Jamie Wright

Lineup:

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B Chris Davis
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Elvis Andrus
3B Michael Young
LF David Murphy/Marlon Byrd
CF Josh Hamilton
RF Nelson Cruz
DH Hank Blalock

Rotation:

Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Scott Feldman
Matt Harrison
Brandon McCarthy

CL: Frank Fancisco/CJ Wilson

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their offseason blunders and begrudgingly praise them for the occasional savvy move.

Did any team in baseball make more moves and near-moves this offseason than the Chicago Cubs? In a flurry of activity, the Northsiders nearly traded for Jake Peavy after long negotiations before backing out due to unreasonable demands, resigned last year’s ace Ryan Dempster to a 4-year, $52 million dollar deal, inked outfielder Milton Bradley to a 3-year, $30 million pact, shipped 5th starter Jason Marquis to the Rockies for reliever Luis Vizcaino, dispatched SS Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson to the Mariners for swingman Aaron Heilman, sent utility infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three prospects, traded centerfielder Felix Pie to the Orioles for two pitching prospects, acquired closer Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for flamethrowing reliever Jose Ceda, signed speedy outfielder Joey Gathright and switch-hitting infielder Aaron Miles, and dealt away starting pitcher Rich Hill to the Orioles and reliever Michael Wuertz to the A’s for prospects.

Whew. Did you follow all of that?

Then again, it’s not surprising that Cubs GM Hendry would make so many moves. After all, this is a man who was still swinging deals from his hospital bed following a heart attack.

But are the Cubs better off than they were when the offseason started? That is a hard question to answer, because pretty much every move the Cubs made this offseason was some kind of gamble, and a lot depends on how the players they acquired play versus how well the players they lost play.

The Cubs were in a pretty tight situation heading into 2009, because with a lot of backloaded contracts coming into effect, their payroll was set to soar to around $130 million even if they did nothing at all, but at the same time they had some areas of clear need.

This meant that the Cubs had to pick their battles. They did spend some money to fill holes in the outfield and rotation by signing Bradley and re-upping Dempster, but this necessitated some cost-cutting moves such as sending Marquis to Colorado, letting closer Kerry Wood walk as a free agent, and dealing away the hugely popular “team MVP” Mark DeRosa and his 114 OPS+ at four different positions.

Stepping in for DeRosa at second base is the pint-sized Mike Fontenot, who put up monster numbers last year in a backup role. Last year’s setup man Carlos Marmol is slated to take over the bulk of Wood’s closing duties, while Gregg moves into the setup role, which may be wise since Gregg is highly overrated despite the closer tag (tied for worst in the NL last season with 9 blown saves), but on the other hand it may be better to let him close since when Marmol was the setup man he actually pitched in higher leverage situations, which now fall to Gregg.

Milton Bradley, meanwhile, will be the starter in right, assuming he can keep himself on the field. Although famed for his wild rages, Bradley’s more serious problem is his balky knees and hamstrings, and he has averaged less than 100 games played over the past 5 seasons. But assuming Bradley can play, his signing pushes Japanese import and 2008 second half bust Kosuke Fukudome to the bench, or possibly a platoon in center with Reed Johnson.

The Cubs won more games under Lou Pinella in his first two years as their manager than they had in back-to-back seasons since 1935-36, and after back-to-back NL Central crowns followed by back-to-back 0-3 playoff flameouts, both expectations and frustrations are high heading into 2009.

Most prognosticators are assuming that the Cubs are a lock to win the central and that their main problem is just figuring out how to win in the postseason, but the Cubs may have more trouble making it to the dance this season than many people expect.

The big worry for Chicago should be that while they won an NL-best 97 games last season, an awful lot went right for them to do so (as is almost always the case when a team wins 97 games), and questions abound for this season. For example, can Ryan Dempster come anywhere near repeating his 2008 career-year again? Can Bradley really play the field after being protected all last season as a DH? Is Mike Fontenot for real?

Another worry is that the Cubs’ aging, expensive core, which returns intact and is signed to big bucks long-term, but showed signs of real decline last season. Derrek Lee posted his lowest OPS+ in 11 seasons, Aramis Ramirez’s power is eroding as he enters his 30s, putative ace Carlos Zambrano saw his K/9 fall from 8.8 to 7.3 to 6.2 over the past three years, and Alfonso Soriano started having to battle through a variety of leg ailments, curtailing the speed which is normally one of his main weapons.

The offense led the NL in runs scored last year, and was second in the whole MLB only to the Texas Rangers, so there is room to give a little at the plate, but the big concern has to be the pitching staff. Zambrano is battling a sore shoulder, starter Rich Harden is as good as any pitcher who ever played when healthy but is never healthy, and Dempster just had a season for the ages after a decade of mediocrity. Throw in the maddeningly inconsistent Ted Lilly and you have a rotation that is almost as liable to collapse under injury and suckage as it is to impress.

Meanwhile, the late-inning bullpen combo of Gregg/Marmol is clearly inferior to Marmol/Wood, and losing Ceda to get Gregg seems to be a questionable move at best, although the rest of the pen, led by hot prospect Jeff Samardzija, looks solid.

The Cubs made a ton of moves this offseason, but are returning a team that is roughly equivalent to the team they fielded last year. That is not a bad thing, as last year’s squad was the best in the league, and the Cubs are definitely favorites again this year, but it is unlikely that they will win 97 games again, and they may have to squeeze by on a thinner margin for error. They did manage to hold the line on payroll, and picked up a number of fringy prospects, which is nice, but they may also miss Wuertz, Cedeno, Pie, and Ceda, and they will definitely miss DeRosa and Wood.

Overall Jim Hendry did a decent job of shuffling the deck chairs, but it remains to be seen if the ship he was on was the Titanic or a more fortunate vessel. Some of the icebergs which may have been created by this years’ dealings might not become apparent for several months or even years.

Offseason grade: B

Added: Milton Bradley, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman, Aaron Miles, Luis Vizcaino, Joey Gathright, Corey Koskie, Paul Bako, So Taguchi, Mike Stanton, Luis Rivas

Lost: Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, Jim Edmonds, Felix Pie, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, Henry Blanco, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward, Jose Ceda

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C Giovanny Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mike Fontenot
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Ryan Theriot
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley/ball of pure rage

SP1 Carlos Zambrano
SP2 Ryan Dempster
SP3 Rich Harden
SP4 Ted Lilly
SP5 Sean Marshall

CL Carlos Marmol

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we rip each team for their offseason blunders and laud them when necessary for the occasional savvy move.

The Dodgers finally got their man(ny), but did they really have a good offseason? That is a more interesting question than most people think.

Sure, the Dodgers eventually re-signed Manny Ramirez for far less money than most people expected, re-signed shortstop Rafael Furcal out from under Atlanta’s nose, and acquired Orlando Hudson, who is a defensive and probably even an offensive upgrade over Jeff Kent at this stage, but they also lost staff ace Derek Lowe, closer Takashi Saito, and setup man Joe Beimel to free agency and only replaced them with Randy Wolf and Guillermo Mota, which is somewhat akin to replacing two Porsches and a Corvette with a used Miata and a suped-up Schwinn.

And sure, the Dodgers succeeded in holding a relatively hard line in the Manny negotiations and got a great deal on Hudson, but this may be more a product of real destitution on LA’s part rather than any actual good judgment, as other moves suggest that good judgment remains in short supply within the Dodgers brain trust.

Mota, for example, had a brilliant run with the Dodgers from 2003-04 as Eric Gagne’s setup man, but at this point in his career he is basically a replacement-level arm, and thus even at a reasonable-sounding $2.35 million he is overpaid. Meanwhile, newly minted backup catcher Brad Ausmus won’t even provide replacement level production when he plays, especially now that whatever was left of the 37-year-old’s vaunted defensive abilities have melted away with age. His one $1 million salary might as well be chucked into the L.A. River when better production could be had from a younger player for the major league minimum.

Moreover, the Dodgers still have made no signs of even considering locking up some of their young stars to below-market contracts that buy out their increasingly expensive arbitration years, and came dangerously close to going to an arbitration hearing with Andre Ethier over about $500,000.

All the signs – the one-year contracts, the letting free agents walk, the surprising restraint in the Manny negotiations, the insistence on deferred money, and the nickel and diming everywhere else (such as the team throwing in their best catching prospect in a deal just to get the Indians to pay $2 million of Casey Blake’s salary), all point to a team (and owner) living on the edge (or just over the edge) of their means, which is never a good place to be in massive worldwide economic crisis.

Sadly, the Dodgers themselves, and Ned Colletti in particular, are largely responsible for the financial straitjacket in which they find themselves. Out of a projected $100 million payroll this year, about $30 million is going to 4 players who will not contribute much, if anything, this year: Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Brad Penny (the latter two are not even on the team anymore). Throw in the $5 million being paid to extremely overrated manager Joe Torre which would be better spent on actual players, and the Dodgers are wasting more than a third of their payroll.

Much is riding on Chad Billingsley, who is asked to be the staff ace while coming back from a broken leg.

But worst of all, it is becoming increasingly clear that five years into McCourt’s tenure as owner, and three years into Colletti’s tenure as GM, the Dodgers still do not show any sign of having any kind of long-term plan. Colletti & Co seem to float in the moment, twiddling their thumbs as they live from move to move, contract to contract, kind of just making it all up on the fly.

Sometimes this leads to good deals like getting Manny on the cheap last season, but other times it leads to really really bad moves – like signing Jason Schmidt even when your doctors tell you he has a torn rotator cuff, because you like big name veterans, or signing Juan Pierre to be your centerfielder, only to sign Andrew Jones to be your centerfielder the next year without having anywhere for Pierre to go, only to pay Jones off to just leave your team.

And meanwhile, you’ve got a bunch of guys on one year contracts or living from arbitration year to arbitration year, and thus no cost certainty or even contracts at all on even your best young players, meaning you are entirely dependent on your farm system to improve your team or even just keep a team on the field, because you certainly don’t have any money for free agents not named Manny Ramirez.

Too bad your farm system is increasingly barren after all the promotions and trades you’ve made. Oh well, at least you finally got your Manny. And the NL West still sucks.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: 2B Orlando Hudson, P Randy Wolf, C Brad Ausmus, P Guillermo Mota, IF Mark Loretta, P Claudio Vargas, P Jeff Weaver, IF Juan Castro

Losses: P Derek Lowe, P Brad Penny, P Greg Maddux, P Takashi Saito, P Chan Ho Park, P Joe Beimel, P Jason Johnson, 2B Jeff Kent, CF Andruw Jones, 1B Nomar Garciaparra, C Gary Bennett

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Casey Blake
SS Rafael Furcal
LF Manny Ramirez
CF Matt Kemp
RF Andre Ethier

SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Randy Wolf
SP Jason Schmidt

CL Jonathan Broxton

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their wily offseason moves and tragic offseason blunders..

Most of us (myself included) have gotten used to thinking of the O’s as sad little warblers who resent their neighbors to the north – those hordes of Fenway Faithful who invade Camden Yards when the BoSox are in town and who lured then-first baseman Kevin Millar to throw out a first pitch in Massachusetts when his work address was in Maryland.

And it’s true that the Orioles have just wrapped up their own “Lost Decade” – ten years of under-.500 ball. But could that finally be about to change? Last winter’s trades of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard showed that Baltimore had finally gotten serious about rebuilding. They now head into 2009 with enough young talent to leave Orioles fans legitimately excited – and to give road-tripping Bostonians something to look forward to besides crab cakes.

Take a look at the outfield: in right, there’s 25-year old Nick Markakis, signed to a 6-year deal after a season in which he OBP’ed .406 and hit 20 homers. Center and left will largely be manned by 23-year old Adam Jones and 24-year old Felix Pie, respectively, both players who still have a lot of upside.

The infield looks positively ancient by comparison, where the only regular under the age of 30 is newly acquired shortstop Cesar Izturis, 29, who will bring stability, speed and defense to a position that, last year, saw six players. Though Gregg Zaun will begin the year as Baltimore’s backstop, he’s only holding the plate down until 22-year old uberprospect Matt Wieters comes up from Norfolk. Wieters is the kind of hotly anticipated rookie who makes a scout whip out his thesaurus to look for new adjectives. He’s hands-down the top pick in every prospect listing I’ve read this winter. The only reason he won’t start the season with the team? Because calling him up later will let the team control him one year longer.

However, Brian Roberts and Ty Wigginton are 31, Aubrey Huff is 32, and Melvin Mora is 37. The O’s tried to trade Roberts last year, but couldn’t get a deal done and spent this spring trying to sign him to an extension.

And yet there’s one question that continues to hound the team’s front office: Who is going to pitch? Given that Jeremy Guthrie is their only solid starter, many baseball observers were surprised (to put it politely) when the O’s made a run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira this winter. Shouldn’t they be targeting hurlers instead of hitters? But looking ahead, Baltimore’s farm system is loaded with arms – and while there won’t be a critical mass of them ready to give you 200 innings for a couple of years yet, the Orioles believe in them sufficiently to be more concerned about building up their offense at this stage. And they should be – after Wieters, their farm system is light on impact bats. So in the meantime, while they wait for their young arms to mature, they’ve taken a flyer on erstwhile Japanese ace Koji Uehara, and hope they can salvage something from the rusting hulks of Mark Hendrickson and Rich Hill.

With a lineup built around Wieters, Markakis, Roberts, and the incredibly under-appreciated Aubrey Huff, Baltimore is just waiting for their young pitchers to come into their own. There’s more work to be done – finding another bat, shoring up the bullpen, and finding ways to further improve the defense, but it’s a nice start.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: OF/IF Ryan Freel, C Gregg Zaun, OF Felix Pie, SS Cesar Izturis, IF Ty Wigginton, P Koji Uehara, P Mark Hendrickson, P Rich Hill, P Adam Eaton

Losses: C Ramon Hernandez, P Daniel Cabrera, P Garret Olson, OF Jay Payton, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Adam Loewen

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

2B Brian Roberts
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
1B Aubrey Huff
3B Melvin Mora/Ty Wigginton
DH Luke Scott
C Greg Zaun (with Matt Wieters taking over soon-ish)
LF Felix Pie
SS Cesar Izturis

SP1 Jeremy Guthrie
SP2 Koji Uehara
SP3 Rich Hill
SP4 Matt Albers
SP5 Adam Eaton/Mark Hendrickson

CL George Sherrill

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