It took two months, but we finally wrapped up our Hot Offseason Action series. The team with the best grade? The Tampa Bay Rays, who signed Pat “The Bat” Burrell to a bargain basement contract and traded for potential future star Matt Joyce. The Yankees also got some props for their extravagant offseason, bringing in Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. That ain’t bad.

The Astros, Royals and Blue Jays all got panned for their offseasons of outrageousness. The ‘Stros continue to delude themselves, thinking they’ll content despite an aging roster and a shortage of pitching. The Royals continue to ignore the importance of OBP. And the Blue Jays…they didn’t do much of anything and worse, don’t seem to have much of a plan.

You can see all of our Hot Offseason Action grades here.

Last year, writing the season preview for the Texas Rangers, I was feeling a little, well, limp. So I had to rely on the little-blue-pill of the writing world: the exclamation point! And indeed, in retrospect, the exclamation point was the aptest possible punctuation mark for the 2008 Rangers. Pitching: terrible!!!! Offense: unstoppable!!!!!!

Hamilton knocked in 130 in '08

But ultimately, as amazing as Texas’s offense was last year –  scoring 901 runs for far and away the best mark in the AL — the Rangers still finished 21 games out of first in the AL West. As fantastic as their offense was, their pitching was even more fantastically bad, allowing 967 runs — also far and away the league’s worst mark. Their team also finished dead last in MLB in defensive efficiency.

But if the 2008 season demanded exclamation points, the appropriate mark of punctuation for the 2009 season is: ?

The question mark.

So will this year be different?

In an October article for Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein listed the Rangers as a candidate to be “the next Rays.” Is that crazy? Well, Goldstein recently ranked their farm system second in MLB. Keith Law ranked them first.

Young and (almost) ready: Feliz was born in 1988, but could be the staff ace by September

Both agree that their system is deep and talented, and flush with young pitching.

When will those young arms contribute? For the two most advanced prospects, Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, it could be later this season. However, they won’t really be ready to assume regular, major league roles until next year.

What about the defense? Will their focus on improving their glove work in spring training pay off? Will the infield defense improve with a corps of regulars – instead of a rotisserie of different fielders? Will Michael Young be any better at third than he was at short? And will I ever understand why they gave him a Gold Glove last year? Will anticipated rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus be able to make the most out of his good arm, speed, and range, while avoiding the errors that plagued him at the lower levels? And will Omar Vizquel excel as Crash Davis to Andrus’ Nuke LaLoosh?

Can the offense repeat last year’s stunning performance? While they lost free agent Milton Bradley — the team’s OBP leader, at .436 over 126 games –  Marlon Byrd is a not-too-shabby replacement (OBP’ed .380 over 122 games) and comes without the ominous emotional forecast (partly crazy, 20% chance of rage). A full season of Chris Davis, and a good year from breakout candidate Jarrod Saltalamacchia, could also soften the blow.

Aging fast: putative ace Millwood seems like he's been around forever, and plays like it too, but is actually only 33.

Was it a mistake for GM Jon Daniels to focus only on minor-league deals, and give up on Ben Sheets? I don’t think so – the Rangers will have enough pitching by 2010 to support their offense. And if they continue to work on their team defense, they might actually start to make their pitchers look good. Or, you know, as good as they can look in Arlington. One thing that confused me, though, was why Daniels was interested in Sheets (of all pitchers) when the Rangers had trouble last year with injured starters. Last year, the “workhorse” of the team was Vincente Padilla, with 171 innings pitched. Otherwise, only Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman crossed the 150 innings mark — and indeed, the trio of Padilla, Millwood, and Feldman were the only Ranger pitchers to cross the 100 innings mark. What these Rangers need is not a fragile genius, but a steady guy who can take the hill every fifth day and give ‘em seven decent innings. If they were targeting anyone, you would have expected them to go for someone like Derek Lowe, whose groundballs might occasionally give their spotty defense trouble, but who at least (theoretically) wouldn’t let too many balls leave the park. Wouldn’t you?

But all in all, this was a fine offseason by the Rangers – don’t you think? They clearly know their young pitchers won’t really be ready until next year, so this winter wasn’t the time to panic or do anything ca-rayzay. They made some solid moves to develop their positional prospects. They signed two former Gold Glovers to minor league deals. The Rangers have a realistic view of their future – and how many teams can you say that about?

Grade: A-?

Added (all on minor league deals): Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Kris Benson, Brendan Donnelly, Eddie Guardado, Jason Jennings
Lost: Milton Bradley, Ramon Vazquez, Jamie Wright

Lineup:

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B Chris Davis
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Elvis Andrus
3B Michael Young
LF David Murphy/Marlon Byrd
CF Josh Hamilton
RF Nelson Cruz
DH Hank Blalock

Rotation:

Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Scott Feldman
Matt Harrison
Brandon McCarthy

CL: Frank Fancisco/CJ Wilson

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their offseason blunders and begrudgingly praise them for the occasional savvy move.

Did any team in baseball make more moves and near-moves this offseason than the Chicago Cubs? In a flurry of activity, the Northsiders nearly traded for Jake Peavy after long negotiations before backing out due to unreasonable demands, resigned last year’s ace Ryan Dempster to a 4-year, $52 million dollar deal, inked outfielder Milton Bradley to a 3-year, $30 million pact, shipped 5th starter Jason Marquis to the Rockies for reliever Luis Vizcaino, dispatched SS Ronny Cedeno and pitcher Garrett Olson to the Mariners for swingman Aaron Heilman, sent utility infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three prospects, traded centerfielder Felix Pie to the Orioles for two pitching prospects, acquired closer Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for flamethrowing reliever Jose Ceda, signed speedy outfielder Joey Gathright and switch-hitting infielder Aaron Miles, and dealt away starting pitcher Rich Hill to the Orioles and reliever Michael Wuertz to the A’s for prospects.

Whew. Did you follow all of that?

Then again, it’s not surprising that Cubs GM Hendry would make so many moves. After all, this is a man who was still swinging deals from his hospital bed following a heart attack.

But are the Cubs better off than they were when the offseason started? That is a hard question to answer, because pretty much every move the Cubs made this offseason was some kind of gamble, and a lot depends on how the players they acquired play versus how well the players they lost play.

The Cubs were in a pretty tight situation heading into 2009, because with a lot of backloaded contracts coming into effect, their payroll was set to soar to around $130 million even if they did nothing at all, but at the same time they had some areas of clear need.

This meant that the Cubs had to pick their battles. They did spend some money to fill holes in the outfield and rotation by signing Bradley and re-upping Dempster, but this necessitated some cost-cutting moves such as sending Marquis to Colorado, letting closer Kerry Wood walk as a free agent, and dealing away the hugely popular “team MVP” Mark DeRosa and his 114 OPS+ at four different positions.

Stepping in for DeRosa at second base is the pint-sized Mike Fontenot, who put up monster numbers last year in a backup role. Last year’s setup man Carlos Marmol is slated to take over the bulk of Wood’s closing duties, while Gregg moves into the setup role, which may be wise since Gregg is highly overrated despite the closer tag (tied for worst in the NL last season with 9 blown saves), but on the other hand it may be better to let him close since when Marmol was the setup man he actually pitched in higher leverage situations, which now fall to Gregg.

Milton Bradley, meanwhile, will be the starter in right, assuming he can keep himself on the field. Although famed for his wild rages, Bradley’s more serious problem is his balky knees and hamstrings, and he has averaged less than 100 games played over the past 5 seasons. But assuming Bradley can play, his signing pushes Japanese import and 2008 second half bust Kosuke Fukudome to the bench, or possibly a platoon in center with Reed Johnson.

The Cubs won more games under Lou Pinella in his first two years as their manager than they had in back-to-back seasons since 1935-36, and after back-to-back NL Central crowns followed by back-to-back 0-3 playoff flameouts, both expectations and frustrations are high heading into 2009.

Most prognosticators are assuming that the Cubs are a lock to win the central and that their main problem is just figuring out how to win in the postseason, but the Cubs may have more trouble making it to the dance this season than many people expect.

The big worry for Chicago should be that while they won an NL-best 97 games last season, an awful lot went right for them to do so (as is almost always the case when a team wins 97 games), and questions abound for this season. For example, can Ryan Dempster come anywhere near repeating his 2008 career-year again? Can Bradley really play the field after being protected all last season as a DH? Is Mike Fontenot for real?

Another worry is that the Cubs’ aging, expensive core, which returns intact and is signed to big bucks long-term, but showed signs of real decline last season. Derrek Lee posted his lowest OPS+ in 11 seasons, Aramis Ramirez’s power is eroding as he enters his 30s, putative ace Carlos Zambrano saw his K/9 fall from 8.8 to 7.3 to 6.2 over the past three years, and Alfonso Soriano started having to battle through a variety of leg ailments, curtailing the speed which is normally one of his main weapons.

The offense led the NL in runs scored last year, and was second in the whole MLB only to the Texas Rangers, so there is room to give a little at the plate, but the big concern has to be the pitching staff. Zambrano is battling a sore shoulder, starter Rich Harden is as good as any pitcher who ever played when healthy but is never healthy, and Dempster just had a season for the ages after a decade of mediocrity. Throw in the maddeningly inconsistent Ted Lilly and you have a rotation that is almost as liable to collapse under injury and suckage as it is to impress.

Meanwhile, the late-inning bullpen combo of Gregg/Marmol is clearly inferior to Marmol/Wood, and losing Ceda to get Gregg seems to be a questionable move at best, although the rest of the pen, led by hot prospect Jeff Samardzija, looks solid.

The Cubs made a ton of moves this offseason, but are returning a team that is roughly equivalent to the team they fielded last year. That is not a bad thing, as last year’s squad was the best in the league, and the Cubs are definitely favorites again this year, but it is unlikely that they will win 97 games again, and they may have to squeeze by on a thinner margin for error. They did manage to hold the line on payroll, and picked up a number of fringy prospects, which is nice, but they may also miss Wuertz, Cedeno, Pie, and Ceda, and they will definitely miss DeRosa and Wood.

Overall Jim Hendry did a decent job of shuffling the deck chairs, but it remains to be seen if the ship he was on was the Titanic or a more fortunate vessel. Some of the icebergs which may have been created by this years’ dealings might not become apparent for several months or even years.

Offseason grade: B

Added: Milton Bradley, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman, Aaron Miles, Luis Vizcaino, Joey Gathright, Corey Koskie, Paul Bako, So Taguchi, Mike Stanton, Luis Rivas

Lost: Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, Jim Edmonds, Felix Pie, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, Henry Blanco, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward, Jose Ceda

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C Giovanny Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mike Fontenot
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Ryan Theriot
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley/ball of pure rage

SP1 Carlos Zambrano
SP2 Ryan Dempster
SP3 Rich Harden
SP4 Ted Lilly
SP5 Sean Marshall

CL Carlos Marmol

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we rip each team for their offseason blunders and laud them when necessary for the occasional savvy move.

The Dodgers finally got their man(ny), but did they really have a good offseason? That is a more interesting question than most people think.

Sure, the Dodgers eventually re-signed Manny Ramirez for far less money than most people expected, re-signed shortstop Rafael Furcal out from under Atlanta’s nose, and acquired Orlando Hudson, who is a defensive and probably even an offensive upgrade over Jeff Kent at this stage, but they also lost staff ace Derek Lowe, closer Takashi Saito, and setup man Joe Beimel to free agency and only replaced them with Randy Wolf and Guillermo Mota, which is somewhat akin to replacing two Porsches and a Corvette with a used Miata and a suped-up Schwinn.

And sure, the Dodgers succeeded in holding a relatively hard line in the Manny negotiations and got a great deal on Hudson, but this may be more a product of real destitution on LA’s part rather than any actual good judgment, as other moves suggest that good judgment remains in short supply within the Dodgers brain trust.

Mota, for example, had a brilliant run with the Dodgers from 2003-04 as Eric Gagne’s setup man, but at this point in his career he is basically a replacement-level arm, and thus even at a reasonable-sounding $2.35 million he is overpaid. Meanwhile, newly minted backup catcher Brad Ausmus won’t even provide replacement level production when he plays, especially now that whatever was left of the 37-year-old’s vaunted defensive abilities have melted away with age. His one $1 million salary might as well be chucked into the L.A. River when better production could be had from a younger player for the major league minimum.

Moreover, the Dodgers still have made no signs of even considering locking up some of their young stars to below-market contracts that buy out their increasingly expensive arbitration years, and came dangerously close to going to an arbitration hearing with Andre Ethier over about $500,000.

All the signs – the one-year contracts, the letting free agents walk, the surprising restraint in the Manny negotiations, the insistence on deferred money, and the nickel and diming everywhere else (such as the team throwing in their best catching prospect in a deal just to get the Indians to pay $2 million of Casey Blake’s salary), all point to a team (and owner) living on the edge (or just over the edge) of their means, which is never a good place to be in massive worldwide economic crisis.

Sadly, the Dodgers themselves, and Ned Colletti in particular, are largely responsible for the financial straitjacket in which they find themselves. Out of a projected $100 million payroll this year, about $30 million is going to 4 players who will not contribute much, if anything, this year: Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Brad Penny (the latter two are not even on the team anymore). Throw in the $5 million being paid to extremely overrated manager Joe Torre which would be better spent on actual players, and the Dodgers are wasting more than a third of their payroll.

Much is riding on Chad Billingsley, who is asked to be the staff ace while coming back from a broken leg.

But worst of all, it is becoming increasingly clear that five years into McCourt’s tenure as owner, and three years into Colletti’s tenure as GM, the Dodgers still do not show any sign of having any kind of long-term plan. Colletti & Co seem to float in the moment, twiddling their thumbs as they live from move to move, contract to contract, kind of just making it all up on the fly.

Sometimes this leads to good deals like getting Manny on the cheap last season, but other times it leads to really really bad moves – like signing Jason Schmidt even when your doctors tell you he has a torn rotator cuff, because you like big name veterans, or signing Juan Pierre to be your centerfielder, only to sign Andrew Jones to be your centerfielder the next year without having anywhere for Pierre to go, only to pay Jones off to just leave your team.

And meanwhile, you’ve got a bunch of guys on one year contracts or living from arbitration year to arbitration year, and thus no cost certainty or even contracts at all on even your best young players, meaning you are entirely dependent on your farm system to improve your team or even just keep a team on the field, because you certainly don’t have any money for free agents not named Manny Ramirez.

Too bad your farm system is increasingly barren after all the promotions and trades you’ve made. Oh well, at least you finally got your Manny. And the NL West still sucks.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: 2B Orlando Hudson, P Randy Wolf, C Brad Ausmus, P Guillermo Mota, IF Mark Loretta, P Claudio Vargas, P Jeff Weaver, IF Juan Castro

Losses: P Derek Lowe, P Brad Penny, P Greg Maddux, P Takashi Saito, P Chan Ho Park, P Joe Beimel, P Jason Johnson, 2B Jeff Kent, CF Andruw Jones, 1B Nomar Garciaparra, C Gary Bennett

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Casey Blake
SS Rafael Furcal
LF Manny Ramirez
CF Matt Kemp
RF Andre Ethier

SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Randy Wolf
SP Jason Schmidt

CL Jonathan Broxton

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their wily offseason moves and tragic offseason blunders..

Most of us (myself included) have gotten used to thinking of the O’s as sad little warblers who resent their neighbors to the north – those hordes of Fenway Faithful who invade Camden Yards when the BoSox are in town and who lured then-first baseman Kevin Millar to throw out a first pitch in Massachusetts when his work address was in Maryland.

And it’s true that the Orioles have just wrapped up their own “Lost Decade” – ten years of under-.500 ball. But could that finally be about to change? Last winter’s trades of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard showed that Baltimore had finally gotten serious about rebuilding. They now head into 2009 with enough young talent to leave Orioles fans legitimately excited – and to give road-tripping Bostonians something to look forward to besides crab cakes.

Take a look at the outfield: in right, there’s 25-year old Nick Markakis, signed to a 6-year deal after a season in which he OBP’ed .406 and hit 20 homers. Center and left will largely be manned by 23-year old Adam Jones and 24-year old Felix Pie, respectively, both players who still have a lot of upside.

The infield looks positively ancient by comparison, where the only regular under the age of 30 is newly acquired shortstop Cesar Izturis, 29, who will bring stability, speed and defense to a position that, last year, saw six players. Though Gregg Zaun will begin the year as Baltimore’s backstop, he’s only holding the plate down until 22-year old uberprospect Matt Wieters comes up from Norfolk. Wieters is the kind of hotly anticipated rookie who makes a scout whip out his thesaurus to look for new adjectives. He’s hands-down the top pick in every prospect listing I’ve read this winter. The only reason he won’t start the season with the team? Because calling him up later will let the team control him one year longer.

However, Brian Roberts and Ty Wigginton are 31, Aubrey Huff is 32, and Melvin Mora is 37. The O’s tried to trade Roberts last year, but couldn’t get a deal done and spent this spring trying to sign him to an extension.

And yet there’s one question that continues to hound the team’s front office: Who is going to pitch? Given that Jeremy Guthrie is their only solid starter, many baseball observers were surprised (to put it politely) when the O’s made a run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira this winter. Shouldn’t they be targeting hurlers instead of hitters? But looking ahead, Baltimore’s farm system is loaded with arms – and while there won’t be a critical mass of them ready to give you 200 innings for a couple of years yet, the Orioles believe in them sufficiently to be more concerned about building up their offense at this stage. And they should be – after Wieters, their farm system is light on impact bats. So in the meantime, while they wait for their young arms to mature, they’ve taken a flyer on erstwhile Japanese ace Koji Uehara, and hope they can salvage something from the rusting hulks of Mark Hendrickson and Rich Hill.

With a lineup built around Wieters, Markakis, Roberts, and the incredibly under-appreciated Aubrey Huff, Baltimore is just waiting for their young pitchers to come into their own. There’s more work to be done – finding another bat, shoring up the bullpen, and finding ways to further improve the defense, but it’s a nice start.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: OF/IF Ryan Freel, C Gregg Zaun, OF Felix Pie, SS Cesar Izturis, IF Ty Wigginton, P Koji Uehara, P Mark Hendrickson, P Rich Hill, P Adam Eaton

Losses: C Ramon Hernandez, P Daniel Cabrera, P Garret Olson, OF Jay Payton, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Adam Loewen

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

2B Brian Roberts
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
1B Aubrey Huff
3B Melvin Mora/Ty Wigginton
DH Luke Scott
C Greg Zaun (with Matt Wieters taking over soon-ish)
LF Felix Pie
SS Cesar Izturis

SP1 Jeremy Guthrie
SP2 Koji Uehara
SP3 Rich Hill
SP4 Matt Albers
SP5 Adam Eaton/Mark Hendrickson

CL George Sherrill

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we berate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move.

Here it is folks – your best bet for the worst team in the Major Leagues in 2009.

After a brutal offseason a year ago in which owner Drayton McLane forced Ed Wade to trade away whatever was left of a tattered farm system in order to “contend,” the Astros had yet another brutal offseason this year when McLane decided to completely close up his wallet in light of the financial crisis. With no prospects and no free agents, the Astros were left with no options at all for improving the team, and indeed, the team has not improved in any way whatsoever.

Now, the Astros had a decent year last season, surprising many by hovering on the fringes of contention through August, and ultimately winding up with a very respectable 86-75 finish. The problem is, just about everything is trending downward for the Astros for 2009, and no help is on the way.

Sure, Lance Berkman got off to a scorching start last year and finished with strong numbers, and while he is likely to approach last year’s numbers again, he is not very likely to improve on them at age 33. Meanwhile, Carlos Lee is also 33, fatter than ever, and starting to have trouble keeping himself on the field, and Miguel Tejada continues his fall back to Earth from steroid-induced (and age-falsified) heights, posting an OPS+ under 100 for the first time in a decade and hitting a mere 13 homers, his fewest since 1998.

And that’s actually the good part. Once you move past the team’s three superstars, things start to get really ugly, really fast. One-time hot prospects Hunter Pence and J.R. Towles took significant steps backward last year, and need to step it up this year just to get back toward average. Kaz Matsui had a career year in 2009, but it is doubtful he can approach those numbers again, given his previous performance level. With Wade forced to let Ty Wigginton walk — due to having no money to pay him –  third base is going to be manned by a platoon of Geoff Blum and Aaron  (Bleepin’) Boone. Finally, center field is going to remain in the hands of speedster Michael Bourn, who is unstoppable once he gets on base, but never actually got on base thanks to his vomit-inducing .288 OBP last year.

The ugliest part of all, however, is the pitching staff. While Jose Valverde is a decent closer, and ace Roy Oswalt remains on a Hall of Fame track, otherwise the Astros are trying to get things done on smoke and mirrors, with Ed Wade pulling a 3-year $27-million offer to Randy Wolf off the table when the financial crisis struck. Relying on 42-year-old Doug Brocail as a setup man is nobody’s idea of wise move, Wandy Rodriguez as a number two starter is a stretch at best, and when Mike Hampton is pencilled in as your third starter, you know it’s bad, bad news. If Hampton even makes it out of May without going down for the season, Ed Wade needs to call the Vatican and somebody needs to get canonized, because a genuine miracle has just occured.

But you really know your team is in trouble when they not only sign Russ Ortiz (yes that “Russ Ortiz”), but actually think there is a chance he will wind up in their rotation. (Having not thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues in almost 600 days, Ortiz points out that he is “good and rested.”)

Look, there are some teams in baseball that have talent but won’t spend money (like the Marlins), or have talent but are completely mismanaged (like the Nationals), or have no talent but spend lots of money (like the Yankees), but no other team in baseball combines an utter lack of talent in their system with brutal mismanagement *and* a total unwillingness to spend money they way the Astros have this offseason.

Offseason Grade: F

Acquisitions: P Mike Hampton, IF Aaron Boone, OF Jason Michaels, P Russ Ortiz, P Danny Graves, P Clay Hensley, C Lou Palmisano (Rule V from Arizona)

Losses: P Randy Wolf, IF Ty Wiggenton, C Brad Ausmus, IF Mark Loretta

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C J.R. Towles
1B Lance Berkman
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone
SS Miguel Tejada
LF Carlos Lee
CF Michael Bourn
RF Hunter Pence

SP1 Roy Oswalt
SP2 Wandy Rodriguez
SP3 Mike Hampton
SP4 Brian Moehler
SP5 Brandon Backe

CL Jose Valverde

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we brashly belittle each team for their brutal offseason blunders and praise them where possible for any potentially prescient ploys.

The recurring tragedy of the Florida Marlins is that they are so young and talented, that in each of the past few seasons they have been only a piece or two away from some serious postseason contention, despite having the lowest payroll in the Major Leagues. This is a credit to the deft running of the organization by long-suffering GM Larry Beinfest, as well as a big steaming discredit to the tightfisted luxury tax profiteering of owner Jeffrey Loria.

This year is much the same. Make no mistake about it – the 2009 Marlins, although largely young and untested, have a chance to be good. As in really really good.

As usual Marlins conducted yet another fire sale this offseason, getting rid of just about anyone who was arbitration eligible, in what has become an annual ritual of sorts in South Florida. But what makes offseason a bit different from recent years is that none of the guys they shipped out are actually all that good, or actually all that necessary.

First they shipped out-machine 1B Mike Jacobs (.299 OBP) to the Royals for talented young reliever Leo Nuñez (2.98 ERA). Then they sent mediocre closer Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for fireballing minor-league reliever Jose Ceda. Finally they dealt league average and no-longer-young corner outfielder Josh Willingham along with starting pitcher and BABIP mirage Scott Olsen to the Nats for slick-fielding 2B prospect Emilio Bonifacio and two other minor leaguers.

All of these deals make a certain kind of sense, if you think about it from a Marlins perspective.  Jacobs had to be moved to clear the way for hot prospect Gaby Sanchez, while Nuñez and Ceda can fill in the bullpen holes left by Gregg and free agent departee Joe Nelson for a fraction of the cost.  Meanwhile, Olson was traded at a “sell high” moment, as he is unlikely to ever repeat his 4.20 ERA from last season, and Bonifacio gives the Marlins a major league-ready 2B option if they decide to move Dan Uggla, whom the team has already stated it has no intention of signing to a long-term deal.

Meanwhile the Fish still have an impressive core of young talent.  Hanley Ramirez is a monster at the plate and on the basepaths, and if they can stay healthy, starting pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad all have ace potential, which means that along with a healthy Anibal Sanchez, the Marlins actually have the best pitching rotation in the NL East, believe it or not.

The bench is also a source of strength.  Alfredo Amezaga is the best utility man in baseball for his ability to provide a plus glove and reasonable offense at any position on the diamond. Dallas McPherson provides some nice left-handed pop, and Wes Helms, whom the Fish got for a single dollar last year, is a serviceable fill-in at the corners.

Areas of potential weakness include the outfield and the bullpen, but if Jeremy Hermida continues to make strides on offense, Cody Ross continues to only ever hit home runs, and Cameron Maybin even vaguely approximates the Willy Mays impression he did on both offense and defense in a small sample size last fall, the outfield can become a strength, especially defensively in the cavernous Dolphins Stadium outfield. Plus, if untested flamethrowers like Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, and Ceda can step up in the pen then leads may be safe after all.

Volstad had a 2.88 ERA in 15 games

Perhaps the biggest weakness is infield defense.  Ramirez has improved a bit from his rookie season, but his glovework doesn’t exactly remind anyone of Omar Vizquel. Meanwhile Jorge Cantu is a butcher anywhere you try to put him, and Dan Uggla’s embarrassing 3 errors in last year’s All-Star Game were not exactly a surprise to Marlins fans.  Not sure how this problem can be fixed, but at least these guys get back at the plate the runs they give away in the field, having smashed a combined 93 homers between them last season.

Nobody is going to pick the Marlins to win the East, nor do they look like winners on paper. But a team this young and this talented is going to be loaded with upside, so while things could easily go wrong, if a few things break right they could also go very very well.  And even if they don’t win the division, there is always the wild card, which is the road the Marlins took to their last two World Series titles.  Consider the Fish my dark horse pick for contention this season.

Which brings us to the offseason grade. It’s always difficult to give the Marlins an offseason grade because they don’t play by the same rules as everyone else and it all depends on how you evaluate their goals.  GM Larry Beinfest probably deserves an “A” for his personal grade every year for even managing to come close to contending with such a constricted payroll, and if you evaluate the Marlins by the goals that they set for themselves then they are also doing well, making money hand over fist by pocketing the difference between their luxury tax-padded revenues and their miniscule payroll.

Even if you evaluate the Marlins strictly on what they do toward constructing a competitive team, you have to give them some credit this year because they mostly got rid of flotsam while getting value in return.  They do get docked however, for probably not getting as much as they could have by trading Olsen and Willingham together instead of separately, and for letting valuable reliever Joe Nelson walk when he could have been signed fairly cheaply (and immediately was, by the cross-state Rays).

But in the end, you’ve still got to punish them a good deal for Loria’s pure, unadulterated greed.

Offseason Grade: C+

Acquisitions: IF Emilio Bonifacio, P Scott Proctor, P Jose Ceda, P Leo Nuñez

Losses: 1B Mike Jacobs, OF Josh Willingham, P Scott Olsen, P Kevin Gregg, P Joe Nelson, OF Luis Gonzalez

Projected Starting Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C John Baker
1B Gaby Sanchez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Jorge Cantu
SS Hanley Ramirez
LF Jeremy Hermida
CF Cameron Maybin
RF Cody Ross

SP1 Rickey Nolasco
SP2 Josh Johnson
SP3 Chris Volstad
SP4 Anibal Sanchez
SP5 Andrew Miller

CL Matt Lindstrom

- Hot Offseason Index -

Riding the wave of change: Big Z and Big W

Like the new wave of hope and optimism that swept the country this year, the Seattle Mariners have reason to feel good about their expectations. Whereas the moves made by the front office in the past few years created an unrealistic sense of what could be, this year, with a new G.M. and a new on-field manager, the M’s are focusing on what is.

Back in December, General Manager Jack Zduriencik (so I copy/paste his name, sue me) had long list of priorities and very little time. One of the critical areas the team needed to improve was on run production, and even though Big Z has been wheeling and dealing, it’s hard to conclude that his moves will drastically (marginally even) improve the offense.

Due to budgetary reasons, the initial list of free-agent run producers the M’s focused on was short, with names like Adam Dunn, Cliff Floyd, and Bobby Abreu signing elsewhere.

Zduriencik instead decided to pursue low-cost players that may be undervalued and could potentially produce, signing Russell Branyan and inviting a rejuvenated Mike Sweeney to spring training with a minor league deal, for instance.

Big Z also made some interesting acquisitions via the trade route, getting Ronny Cedeño from the cubs (who may challenge for an infield spot) in a deal that sent the recently-acquired Aaron Heilman to Chicago; and in a bold move, traded closer J.J. Putz to the Mets in a three-way deal that brought in Endy Chavez from New York and Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians. Both players will likely take over left and center field respectively and with Ichiro in right field, this set up gives the Mariners a mighty defensive outfield, but I suspect neither Gutierrez or Chavez are going to open the RBI flood gates.

Then there’s Jeff Clement. The Mariner’s young catching prospect has been fast tracked into the Bigs, and will probably make the team as a designated hitter. As of now, manager Dan Wakamatsu has Johjima as his no. 1 catcher, but the Mariners may want to give Clement some time behind the plate.

Junior looks awfully good in a M's uni

Zduriencik saved the biggest move for last. After a prolonged courtship, the Mariners brought back Ken Griffey Jr. to the delight of the clubhouse and fans. More than anything, giving Junior this home coming was as much about putting butts in the seats as it is about sparking a fire in the team, and less about run production. Let’s be honest, Junior’s career is drawing to a close (albeit gracefully by coming back to Seattle), and there shouldn’t be an expectation for him to produce many runs (for the sake of argument, in 131 at-bats with the White Sox last year, Junior collected 18 RBIs). But I’ll be damned if he doesn’t look right at home in a Mariner’s uniform.

Turning to pitching, even though Putz is no longer with the team, Big Z has made some moves to solidify the bullpen, trading for David Aardsma and signing Tyler Walker who indicated he’s willing to take on the closer role (not that the fans see that as a good thing). That closer question, however, is one that is yet to be addressed, but it’ll be settled from within the current crop of arms in the bullpen.

As far as the rotation is concerned, the Mariners have a surplus of starters. They resigned Eric Bedard and avoided arbitration with Felix Hernandez, inking him to a one-year deal.

Although Zduriencik explored various trade scenarios for Jarrod Washburn, with the latest rumor surfacing as late as February 3d, no deal was made. In this case, perhaps, Big Z misplayed his hand, as Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times notes, since a Washburn deal could have landed a decent prospect instead of letting him walk as a free agent at the end of the season.

Also in the rotation are a slimmed-down Carlos Silva, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow.

Notable additions: Ken Griffey Jr, Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Sweeny, Russell Branyan, Ronny Cedeño.

Notable losses: Raul Ibañez, J.J. Putz, Sean Green.

Projected rotation, line-up and closer

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Eric Bedard
SP Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Carlos Silva
SP Jarrod Washburn

C Kenji Johjima
1B Russel Branyan
2B Jose Lopez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Adrián Beltré
LF Endy Chavez
CF Franklin Gutierrez
RF Ichiro Suzuki
DH Jeff Clement/Ken Griffey Jr.

CL Mark Lowe?

Hot Offseason Grade: C

It would be an unrealistic expectation in and of itself to say that Zduriencik turned the team around in one offseason. Although he was busy all winter, making plenty of moves, the Mariners will be a work in progress in the next few years. It’s not clear that the young talent he acquired via trade will be the crop of players he’ll build his team around, and he’s banking on some of his vets (and a free agent or two) to make a strong come back. Ultimately, it’s about trying something different this year, and so far, that’s one step in the right direction.

- Hot Offseason Index -