This is one of a series of posts in which we call out all 30 teams for their wily offseason moves and tragic offseason blunders..

Most of us (myself included) have gotten used to thinking of the O’s as sad little warblers who resent their neighbors to the north – those hordes of Fenway Faithful who invade Camden Yards when the BoSox are in town and who lured then-first baseman Kevin Millar to throw out a first pitch in Massachusetts when his work address was in Maryland.

And it’s true that the Orioles have just wrapped up their own “Lost Decade” – ten years of under-.500 ball. But could that finally be about to change? Last winter’s trades of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard showed that Baltimore had finally gotten serious about rebuilding. They now head into 2009 with enough young talent to leave Orioles fans legitimately excited – and to give road-tripping Bostonians something to look forward to besides crab cakes.

Take a look at the outfield: in right, there’s 25-year old Nick Markakis, signed to a 6-year deal after a season in which he OBP’ed .406 and hit 20 homers. Center and left will largely be manned by 23-year old Adam Jones and 24-year old Felix Pie, respectively, both players who still have a lot of upside.

The infield looks positively ancient by comparison, where the only regular under the age of 30 is newly acquired shortstop Cesar Izturis, 29, who will bring stability, speed and defense to a position that, last year, saw six players. Though Gregg Zaun will begin the year as Baltimore’s backstop, he’s only holding the plate down until 22-year old uberprospect Matt Wieters comes up from Norfolk. Wieters is the kind of hotly anticipated rookie who makes a scout whip out his thesaurus to look for new adjectives. He’s hands-down the top pick in every prospect listing I’ve read this winter. The only reason he won’t start the season with the team? Because calling him up later will let the team control him one year longer.

However, Brian Roberts and Ty Wigginton are 31, Aubrey Huff is 32, and Melvin Mora is 37. The O’s tried to trade Roberts last year, but couldn’t get a deal done and spent this spring trying to sign him to an extension.

And yet there’s one question that continues to hound the team’s front office: Who is going to pitch? Given that Jeremy Guthrie is their only solid starter, many baseball observers were surprised (to put it politely) when the O’s made a run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira this winter. Shouldn’t they be targeting hurlers instead of hitters? But looking ahead, Baltimore’s farm system is loaded with arms – and while there won’t be a critical mass of them ready to give you 200 innings for a couple of years yet, the Orioles believe in them sufficiently to be more concerned about building up their offense at this stage. And they should be – after Wieters, their farm system is light on impact bats. So in the meantime, while they wait for their young arms to mature, they’ve taken a flyer on erstwhile Japanese ace Koji Uehara, and hope they can salvage something from the rusting hulks of Mark Hendrickson and Rich Hill.

With a lineup built around Wieters, Markakis, Roberts, and the incredibly under-appreciated Aubrey Huff, Baltimore is just waiting for their young pitchers to come into their own. There’s more work to be done – finding another bat, shoring up the bullpen, and finding ways to further improve the defense, but it’s a nice start.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: OF/IF Ryan Freel, C Gregg Zaun, OF Felix Pie, SS Cesar Izturis, IF Ty Wigginton, P Koji Uehara, P Mark Hendrickson, P Rich Hill, P Adam Eaton

Losses: C Ramon Hernandez, P Daniel Cabrera, P Garret Olson, OF Jay Payton, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Adam Loewen

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

2B Brian Roberts
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
1B Aubrey Huff
3B Melvin Mora/Ty Wigginton
DH Luke Scott
C Greg Zaun (with Matt Wieters taking over soon-ish)
LF Felix Pie
SS Cesar Izturis

SP1 Jeremy Guthrie
SP2 Koji Uehara
SP3 Rich Hill
SP4 Matt Albers
SP5 Adam Eaton/Mark Hendrickson

CL George Sherrill

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we berate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move.

Here it is folks – your best bet for the worst team in the Major Leagues in 2009.

After a brutal offseason a year ago in which owner Drayton McLane forced Ed Wade to trade away whatever was left of a tattered farm system in order to “contend,” the Astros had yet another brutal offseason this year when McLane decided to completely close up his wallet in light of the financial crisis. With no prospects and no free agents, the Astros were left with no options at all for improving the team, and indeed, the team has not improved in any way whatsoever.

Now, the Astros had a decent year last season, surprising many by hovering on the fringes of contention through August, and ultimately winding up with a very respectable 86-75 finish. The problem is, just about everything is trending downward for the Astros for 2009, and no help is on the way.

Sure, Lance Berkman got off to a scorching start last year and finished with strong numbers, and while he is likely to approach last year’s numbers again, he is not very likely to improve on them at age 33. Meanwhile, Carlos Lee is also 33, fatter than ever, and starting to have trouble keeping himself on the field, and Miguel Tejada continues his fall back to Earth from steroid-induced (and age-falsified) heights, posting an OPS+ under 100 for the first time in a decade and hitting a mere 13 homers, his fewest since 1998.

And that’s actually the good part. Once you move past the team’s three superstars, things start to get really ugly, really fast. One-time hot prospects Hunter Pence and J.R. Towles took significant steps backward last year, and need to step it up this year just to get back toward average. Kaz Matsui had a career year in 2009, but it is doubtful he can approach those numbers again, given his previous performance level. With Wade forced to let Ty Wigginton walk — due to having no money to pay him –  third base is going to be manned by a platoon of Geoff Blum and Aaron  (Bleepin’) Boone. Finally, center field is going to remain in the hands of speedster Michael Bourn, who is unstoppable once he gets on base, but never actually got on base thanks to his vomit-inducing .288 OBP last year.

The ugliest part of all, however, is the pitching staff. While Jose Valverde is a decent closer, and ace Roy Oswalt remains on a Hall of Fame track, otherwise the Astros are trying to get things done on smoke and mirrors, with Ed Wade pulling a 3-year $27-million offer to Randy Wolf off the table when the financial crisis struck. Relying on 42-year-old Doug Brocail as a setup man is nobody’s idea of wise move, Wandy Rodriguez as a number two starter is a stretch at best, and when Mike Hampton is pencilled in as your third starter, you know it’s bad, bad news. If Hampton even makes it out of May without going down for the season, Ed Wade needs to call the Vatican and somebody needs to get canonized, because a genuine miracle has just occured.

But you really know your team is in trouble when they not only sign Russ Ortiz (yes that “Russ Ortiz”), but actually think there is a chance he will wind up in their rotation. (Having not thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues in almost 600 days, Ortiz points out that he is “good and rested.”)

Look, there are some teams in baseball that have talent but won’t spend money (like the Marlins), or have talent but are completely mismanaged (like the Nationals), or have no talent but spend lots of money (like the Yankees), but no other team in baseball combines an utter lack of talent in their system with brutal mismanagement *and* a total unwillingness to spend money they way the Astros have this offseason.

Offseason Grade: F

Acquisitions: P Mike Hampton, IF Aaron Boone, OF Jason Michaels, P Russ Ortiz, P Danny Graves, P Clay Hensley, C Lou Palmisano (Rule V from Arizona)

Losses: P Randy Wolf, IF Ty Wiggenton, C Brad Ausmus, IF Mark Loretta

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C J.R. Towles
1B Lance Berkman
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone
SS Miguel Tejada
LF Carlos Lee
CF Michael Bourn
RF Hunter Pence

SP1 Roy Oswalt
SP2 Wandy Rodriguez
SP3 Mike Hampton
SP4 Brian Moehler
SP5 Brandon Backe

CL Jose Valverde

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of a series of posts in which we brashly belittle each team for their brutal offseason blunders and praise them where possible for any potentially prescient ploys.

The recurring tragedy of the Florida Marlins is that they are so young and talented, that in each of the past few seasons they have been only a piece or two away from some serious postseason contention, despite having the lowest payroll in the Major Leagues. This is a credit to the deft running of the organization by long-suffering GM Larry Beinfest, as well as a big steaming discredit to the tightfisted luxury tax profiteering of owner Jeffrey Loria.

This year is much the same. Make no mistake about it – the 2009 Marlins, although largely young and untested, have a chance to be good. As in really really good.

As usual Marlins conducted yet another fire sale this offseason, getting rid of just about anyone who was arbitration eligible, in what has become an annual ritual of sorts in South Florida. But what makes offseason a bit different from recent years is that none of the guys they shipped out are actually all that good, or actually all that necessary.

First they shipped out-machine 1B Mike Jacobs (.299 OBP) to the Royals for talented young reliever Leo Nuñez (2.98 ERA). Then they sent mediocre closer Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for fireballing minor-league reliever Jose Ceda. Finally they dealt league average and no-longer-young corner outfielder Josh Willingham along with starting pitcher and BABIP mirage Scott Olsen to the Nats for slick-fielding 2B prospect Emilio Bonifacio and two other minor leaguers.

All of these deals make a certain kind of sense, if you think about it from a Marlins perspective.  Jacobs had to be moved to clear the way for hot prospect Gaby Sanchez, while Nuñez and Ceda can fill in the bullpen holes left by Gregg and free agent departee Joe Nelson for a fraction of the cost.  Meanwhile, Olson was traded at a “sell high” moment, as he is unlikely to ever repeat his 4.20 ERA from last season, and Bonifacio gives the Marlins a major league-ready 2B option if they decide to move Dan Uggla, whom the team has already stated it has no intention of signing to a long-term deal.

Meanwhile the Fish still have an impressive core of young talent.  Hanley Ramirez is a monster at the plate and on the basepaths, and if they can stay healthy, starting pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad all have ace potential, which means that along with a healthy Anibal Sanchez, the Marlins actually have the best pitching rotation in the NL East, believe it or not.

The bench is also a source of strength.  Alfredo Amezaga is the best utility man in baseball for his ability to provide a plus glove and reasonable offense at any position on the diamond. Dallas McPherson provides some nice left-handed pop, and Wes Helms, whom the Fish got for a single dollar last year, is a serviceable fill-in at the corners.

Areas of potential weakness include the outfield and the bullpen, but if Jeremy Hermida continues to make strides on offense, Cody Ross continues to only ever hit home runs, and Cameron Maybin even vaguely approximates the Willy Mays impression he did on both offense and defense in a small sample size last fall, the outfield can become a strength, especially defensively in the cavernous Dolphins Stadium outfield. Plus, if untested flamethrowers like Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, and Ceda can step up in the pen then leads may be safe after all.

Volstad had a 2.88 ERA in 15 games

Perhaps the biggest weakness is infield defense.  Ramirez has improved a bit from his rookie season, but his glovework doesn’t exactly remind anyone of Omar Vizquel. Meanwhile Jorge Cantu is a butcher anywhere you try to put him, and Dan Uggla’s embarrassing 3 errors in last year’s All-Star Game were not exactly a surprise to Marlins fans.  Not sure how this problem can be fixed, but at least these guys get back at the plate the runs they give away in the field, having smashed a combined 93 homers between them last season.

Nobody is going to pick the Marlins to win the East, nor do they look like winners on paper. But a team this young and this talented is going to be loaded with upside, so while things could easily go wrong, if a few things break right they could also go very very well.  And even if they don’t win the division, there is always the wild card, which is the road the Marlins took to their last two World Series titles.  Consider the Fish my dark horse pick for contention this season.

Which brings us to the offseason grade. It’s always difficult to give the Marlins an offseason grade because they don’t play by the same rules as everyone else and it all depends on how you evaluate their goals.  GM Larry Beinfest probably deserves an “A” for his personal grade every year for even managing to come close to contending with such a constricted payroll, and if you evaluate the Marlins by the goals that they set for themselves then they are also doing well, making money hand over fist by pocketing the difference between their luxury tax-padded revenues and their miniscule payroll.

Even if you evaluate the Marlins strictly on what they do toward constructing a competitive team, you have to give them some credit this year because they mostly got rid of flotsam while getting value in return.  They do get docked however, for probably not getting as much as they could have by trading Olsen and Willingham together instead of separately, and for letting valuable reliever Joe Nelson walk when he could have been signed fairly cheaply (and immediately was, by the cross-state Rays).

But in the end, you’ve still got to punish them a good deal for Loria’s pure, unadulterated greed.

Offseason Grade: C+

Acquisitions: IF Emilio Bonifacio, P Scott Proctor, P Jose Ceda, P Leo Nuñez

Losses: 1B Mike Jacobs, OF Josh Willingham, P Scott Olsen, P Kevin Gregg, P Joe Nelson, OF Luis Gonzalez

Projected Starting Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C John Baker
1B Gaby Sanchez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Jorge Cantu
SS Hanley Ramirez
LF Jeremy Hermida
CF Cameron Maybin
RF Cody Ross

SP1 Rickey Nolasco
SP2 Josh Johnson
SP3 Chris Volstad
SP4 Anibal Sanchez
SP5 Andrew Miller

CL Matt Lindstrom

- Hot Offseason Index -

Riding the wave of change: Big Z and Big W

Like the new wave of hope and optimism that swept the country this year, the Seattle Mariners have reason to feel good about their expectations. Whereas the moves made by the front office in the past few years created an unrealistic sense of what could be, this year, with a new G.M. and a new on-field manager, the M’s are focusing on what is.

Back in December, General Manager Jack Zduriencik (so I copy/paste his name, sue me) had long list of priorities and very little time. One of the critical areas the team needed to improve was on run production, and even though Big Z has been wheeling and dealing, it’s hard to conclude that his moves will drastically (marginally even) improve the offense.

Due to budgetary reasons, the initial list of free-agent run producers the M’s focused on was short, with names like Adam Dunn, Cliff Floyd, and Bobby Abreu signing elsewhere.

Zduriencik instead decided to pursue low-cost players that may be undervalued and could potentially produce, signing Russell Branyan and inviting a rejuvenated Mike Sweeney to spring training with a minor league deal, for instance.

Big Z also made some interesting acquisitions via the trade route, getting Ronny Cedeño from the cubs (who may challenge for an infield spot) in a deal that sent the recently-acquired Aaron Heilman to Chicago; and in a bold move, traded closer J.J. Putz to the Mets in a three-way deal that brought in Endy Chavez from New York and Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians. Both players will likely take over left and center field respectively and with Ichiro in right field, this set up gives the Mariners a mighty defensive outfield, but I suspect neither Gutierrez or Chavez are going to open the RBI flood gates.

Then there’s Jeff Clement. The Mariner’s young catching prospect has been fast tracked into the Bigs, and will probably make the team as a designated hitter. As of now, manager Dan Wakamatsu has Johjima as his no. 1 catcher, but the Mariners may want to give Clement some time behind the plate.

Junior looks awfully good in a M's uni

Zduriencik saved the biggest move for last. After a prolonged courtship, the Mariners brought back Ken Griffey Jr. to the delight of the clubhouse and fans. More than anything, giving Junior this home coming was as much about putting butts in the seats as it is about sparking a fire in the team, and less about run production. Let’s be honest, Junior’s career is drawing to a close (albeit gracefully by coming back to Seattle), and there shouldn’t be an expectation for him to produce many runs (for the sake of argument, in 131 at-bats with the White Sox last year, Junior collected 18 RBIs). But I’ll be damned if he doesn’t look right at home in a Mariner’s uniform.

Turning to pitching, even though Putz is no longer with the team, Big Z has made some moves to solidify the bullpen, trading for David Aardsma and signing Tyler Walker who indicated he’s willing to take on the closer role (not that the fans see that as a good thing). That closer question, however, is one that is yet to be addressed, but it’ll be settled from within the current crop of arms in the bullpen.

As far as the rotation is concerned, the Mariners have a surplus of starters. They resigned Eric Bedard and avoided arbitration with Felix Hernandez, inking him to a one-year deal.

Although Zduriencik explored various trade scenarios for Jarrod Washburn, with the latest rumor surfacing as late as February 3d, no deal was made. In this case, perhaps, Big Z misplayed his hand, as Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times notes, since a Washburn deal could have landed a decent prospect instead of letting him walk as a free agent at the end of the season.

Also in the rotation are a slimmed-down Carlos Silva, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow.

Notable additions: Ken Griffey Jr, Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Sweeny, Russell Branyan, Ronny Cedeño.

Notable losses: Raul Ibañez, J.J. Putz, Sean Green.

Projected rotation, line-up and closer

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Eric Bedard
SP Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Carlos Silva
SP Jarrod Washburn

C Kenji Johjima
1B Russel Branyan
2B Jose Lopez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Adrián Beltré
LF Endy Chavez
CF Franklin Gutierrez
RF Ichiro Suzuki
DH Jeff Clement/Ken Griffey Jr.

CL Mark Lowe?

Hot Offseason Grade: C

It would be an unrealistic expectation in and of itself to say that Zduriencik turned the team around in one offseason. Although he was busy all winter, making plenty of moves, the Mariners will be a work in progress in the next few years. It’s not clear that the young talent he acquired via trade will be the crop of players he’ll build his team around, and he’s banking on some of his vets (and a free agent or two) to make a strong come back. Ultimately, it’s about trying something different this year, and so far, that’s one step in the right direction.

- Hot Offseason Index -

This is one of  a series of posts in which we rip each team for their offseason blunders and laud them when necessary for the occasional savvy move.

Since 2002, as I have alluded to previously in this space, the Washington Nationals have let more major league talent slip throught their fingers than probably any other three teams combined.  And unfortunately this horrendous record of mismanagement shows no signs of abating.

Nothing symbolizes the Nats’ utter directionlessness and total lack of a game plan than their foolish and futile pursuit of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira earlier this winter.  As good a player as Teixeira is, the Nationals are probably the team in major league baseball that would stand to *least* benefit from his acquisition.

Adam Dunn, no doubt explaining to his son why playing baseball sucks.

Given that they already have two other first baseman signed to big contracts, are nowhere near contention, and need to rebuild at almost every other position on the diamond.  But the Learners and Stan Kasten were all pressing for the signing of a big-name free agent, and happy-go-lucky cowboy/GM Jim Bowden was happy to try to oblige.

Ironically, then, the failure to sign Teixeira may well have been the single best thing that happened to the the Nationals in what was otherwise a disastrous offseason. In addition to missing out on Tex, the team found out one of their top prospects was actually 23 rather than 19 (and therefore that they had essentially flushed $1.4 million down the drain), saw their GM embroiled in a Federal Investigation, had to close down their camp in the Dominican and fire Jose Rijo, and now is reportedly plotting the firing of Bowden right in the middle of spring training.

Not to mention that none of the moves the Nats made this offseason are any good.  The trade of three prospects for this years Florida Marlins arbitration victims Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham looks okay on the surface. Well, except that Olsen got lucky last year thanks to an unsustainably low BABIP, and now we find out that his fastball velocity mysteriously dropped over the course of the last two seasons, from 91 mph to 87 mph.  And that Josh Willingham has not been able to stay healthy, has never built on the promise he showed in his 2006 rookie year, and is already 30 years old, making it increasingly likely that 2006 was his peak rather than a hint of his upside.

Moreover, while I personally have never been sold on Emilio Bonifacio – the young infielder who was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Marlins – at least lots of people around the game think he can be a good player, and it is baffling to trade him now because he is a second baseman which is currently a gaping hole in the Nats lineup, whereas the Nats had no need for yet another outfielder in Willingham, or another 5th starter-type in Olsen.  But most of all it just makes no sense at all for the Nationals to take on overpriced, mediocre players during their highly expensive arbitration years when they are nowhere near contention.

The other big move the Nationals made was the acquisition of free agent 1B/OF Adam Dunn.  While I personally think Dunn is a great player, this move possibly makes even less sense for the Nationals than signing Teixeira would have, in that at least giving an eight year deal to Tex might have held the possibility that he would someday play on a contender, whereas giving Dunn $20 million over two years where the Nats have no hope of contending is just flushing money down the drain.  It doesn’t even make sense from the perspective of getting more fans to come out to the park, given that 50 percent of people passionately believe that Dunn is a lazy bum who strikes out too much and hates baseball.

What we are left with is an incredibly unbalanced team that seems to have been assembled with the help of a random number generator. The Nats are paying $25 million this year to three different first baseman and have 6 starting outfielders in Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris. But meanwhile they have no second baseman, I challenge you to name their shortstop without looking, their bullpen is in tatters, and with the losses of Odalis Perez and Tim Redding the composition of their pitching rotation behind Olsen and lone bright spot John Lannan is largely a mystery.

The good news is that the slight improvements the Nationals made at the hefty pricetag of about $25 million in added payroll are likely to ensure that they will improve on their MLB-worst 59-102 record last season.  But that is where the good news ends, as it will be a struggle to win 70 games.

Overall the Nationals’ payroll is projected to be about $75 million this year. Is any team doing less with more?

Offseason Grade: D-

Acquisitions: 1B Adam Dunn, LHP Scott Olsen, OF Josh Willingham, P Daniel Cabrera, C Javier Valentin, IF Alex Cintron, OF Corey Patterson, P Wil Ledezma, P Josh Towers, P Terrell Young

Losses: P Chad Cordero, P Odalis Perez, IF Emilio Bonifacio, P Tim Redding, IF Aaron Boone, P Jesus Colome

Projected Starters, Rotation, and Closer:

C Jesus Flores
1B Adam Dunn – hit exactly 40 homers in each of the last 4 seasons
2B ???
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Christian Guzman – an out-making machine, his ‘08 “comeback” was all batting avg.
LF Josh Willingham/Wily Mo Pena
CF Lastings Milledge/Willie Harris
RF Elijah Dukes/Austin Kearns

SP1 John Lannan
SP2 Scott Olsen
SP3 Daniel Cabrera – The modern master of the art of base-on-balls
SP4 Shawn Hill?
SP5 ???

CL Joel Hanrahan

- Hot Offseason Index -

You can’t blame Jake Peavy for his surprise at still being a San Diego Padre. All signs were pointing to Atlanta or Chicago as probable (not possible) destinations; and yet, with one week of spring training in the books, Peavy remains.

Back in December, I, like many of the people watching the Padres, thought Peavy would get dealt, and I based my “analysis” of their needs then on the premise that they would be able to land a few good prospects in return. Well, you can forget about it all.

Except, of course, that their other pressing needs remain relevant, Peavy trade or not. The Friars had an atrocious offense in 2008, and while the team made some moves, let’s not be hasty and say they’ve improved. They traded Khalil Green, their starting shortstop to St. Louis for a minor league pitcher, and though they signed David “GRIT” Eckstein, they’ll let him take over second base (vacated by the departure of Tadahito Iguchi) and either move Luis Rodriguez to short or give prospect Matt Antonelli a shot to start.

They signed veteran Cliff Floyd and traded Matt “F’n” Bush to Toronto for cash and a player to be named later (which apparently, has yet to be named). They also signed veteran catcher Henry Blanco to back up Nick Hundley, who’ll get the majority of starts behind the plate, and added outfielder Emil Brown as a spring training invitee.

These moves don’t exactly blow you out of the water, or even blow you anywhere near the surface of the water, but the reason for the lack of offseason action, for those who may not have been paying attention, is that the San Diego Padres are drastic cost-cutting mode. Their budget was slashed in half from 2008, which is a direct result of their ownership dilemma between John and Becky Moors.

Because of their on-going divorce and its financial ramifications, Moors was forced to sell the team. He finally reached a deal with former Diamondbacks CEO, Jeff Moorad, who’ll have five years to complete the transaction. Though the Padres will have new ownership, it’ll take a while before it takes over the actual running of the team. What that means for the on-field and front-office operations remains to be seen.

As far as pitching goes, their rotation retains their front-line starter in Peavy (now they just need to score him some runs). They’ll give Mark Prior another shot at pitching on the major league level and they reached a deal with Sultanes de Monterrey of the Mexican league for right hander Walter Silva, hoping he’ll earn a spot in the rotation. Even with these moves (or non-moves in Peavy’s case), pitching is still a work in progress, with several spots open in both the rotation and bullpen.

Notable acquisitions: Cliff Floyd, Henry Blanco, Walter Silva, David Eckstein

Notable losses: Trevor Hoffman, Tadahito Iguchi,  Shawn Estes

Projected lineup, rotation, and closer:

C Nick Hundley
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B David Eckstein
SS Matt Antonelli / Luis Rodriguez
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF Chase Headley
CF Jody Gerut / Scott Hariston
RF Brian Giles

SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Cha Seung Baek
SP Josh Geer?
SP Wade LeBlanc?

CL Heath Bell

Offseason Grade: D

With a pool of young players, 2009 is shaping up to be the first of a 5-year plan for when new ownership takes over. It’ll be painful, but at least they’ve managed to be proactive in trying to field a team capable of winning more than 63 games. Right?

- Hot Offseason Index -

With a full year under his belt, rookie surprise Alexei Ramirez moves over to shortstop

To say that the Chicago White Sox won the American League Central Pennant is a statement of fact. But to say that they were the best team in the division might be a stretch. The White Sox should have had that division in late August but a series of umm, unfortunate injuries to their veterans (and Carlos Quentin), as well as persistent pressure from a young Minnesota Twins ball club, pushed the pennant race to the very last day of the season.

Last season, the White Sox were simply old and slow. The team was 5th in runs, 9th in OBP, and second to last in stolen bases; and what’s more, they finished behind Minnesota in almost all offensive categories save for solo home runs.

This offseason, though the economy is forcing a lot of teams to cut or hold budget, White Sox GM Kenny Williams has been able to make some deals while “bumping up” against his financial ceiling.

First, he unloaded a couple of veterans in exchange for a handful of minor league talent that may actually compete for a starting job or two. In what was an arguably puzzling move, Williams traded Nick Swisher to the Yankees for Jeff Marquez and Wilson Betemit. Swisher, as UmpBump’s Paul argued back when the deal came through, is a bounce-back candidate, but it was clear towards the end of last season that he simply didn’t fit in manager Ozzie Guillen’s clubhouse.

For his next big trade, Williams sent veteran hurler Javier Vazquez to Atlanta for catching prospect Tyler Flowers (who was the best power hitter in the Arizona Fall league last year) and infielder Brent Lillibridge.

Out of those two trades, Marquez has a realistic shot of landing the 5th spot in the rotation, while Betemit and Lillibridge will duke it out with Chris Getz for second base now that Orlando Cabrera is out via the free agent door and Ramirez moves over to short (his natural position).

Joe Crede’s tenure in the South Side came to a sad end after he couldn’t shake a rash of back injuries that limited his playing time in the last two to three years, giving Josh Fields third base as his job to lose.

Flowers is the prospect with the most up-side, but he’ll have to endure a few seasons in the minors before A.J. Pierzynksi is ready to give up the starter role.

With Cabrera and Crede gone, the Chi Sox figure to field a much younger (and arguably more agile) infield. Meanwhile, Brian Anderson will get yet another shot to land the center field job, though he’ll have to beat out Jerry Owens (and his .324 OBP).

Much has been said about young Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo, but it's unlikely he'll earn a spot in the roster this year.

As far as the rotation is concerned, Jose Contreras has been making a steady and speedy recovery from an Achilles heel injury, and Vazquez’ departure via trade opens the fifth spot for which there are a few competing arms. Williams brought back Bartolo Colón and the hope is Marquez as well as Clayton Richard (who saw some starts last year) challenge the veteran former Cy-Young winner for the spot.

There have been other trade rumors circulating around veterans Jermaine Dye and even Bobby Jenks, (even some rumblings about Williams possibly signing Bobby Abreu before he joined the Angels), but as of now, Dye is headed to camp, as is Jenks (with whom the Sox avoided arbitration).

Of note is young Cuban defector an third baseman Dayan Viciedo, whom Guillen praised for shedding some weight since he was inked to a multi-million dollar deal, but he’s only 19 and it’s doubtful he’ll break camp with the big league squad. Instead, Fields will get start the season at the hot corner.

Notable acquisitions: Bartolo Colón, Ben Broussard, Tyler Flowers, Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, Brent Lillibridge, Dayan Viciedo.

Notable losses: Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Javier Vazquez.

Lineup, rotation and closer:

C A.J. Pierzynkski
1B Paul Konerko
2B Christ Getz/Brent Lillibridge
SS Alexei Ramirez
3B Josh Fields
LF Carlos Quentin
CF Jerry Owens/Brian Anderson
RF Jermaine Dye
DH Jim Thome

SP Mark Buehrle
SP Gavin Floyd
SP John Danks
SP Jose Contreras
SP Bartolo Colon / Jeff Marquez / Clayton Richard

CL Bobby Jenks

Offseason Grade: B

While Williams got hosed in the Swisher deal mainly because he was shedding a no-longer-welcomed player, I’d dare say the Sox got a decent deal in the Vazquez trade. He was also able to throw some money at his veterans (Jenks) while bringing in some outside help. The Colon signing was classic Kenny Williams (it can’t be a ChiSox offseason without a freshly inked vet), but in this case, it made sense to make sure the young’uns stepped up their game and earned that fifth spot in the rotation. The bullpen will return with Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink and Matt Thornton setting up Jenks. The only black eye is, again, center field. Neither Anderson or Owens has shown they deserve the everyday job. Maybe that will change this season.

- Hot Offseason Index -

Back in October, the New York Mets once again played the role of the little orphan children looking into the window of an aristocratic family serving Christmas dinner by a roaring fireplace in a Dickens novel. And although we’re already in February, the majority of the team remains interestingly unchanged save for one area – the bullpen.

Let me just state that on paper, the Mets bullpen didn’t need much fixin’. Yes, they were awful down the stretch. Down. Right. Awful. Luis Ayala is not a man who should be pitching meaningful innings. But their collectively terrible performance was an unlikely occurrence. Had the Mets kept the entire corp in tact, I’m confident that the pen would have been better in 2009. You can’t keep rolling snake eyes for that long.

But Mets fans wanted a change and a change is what they got. Francisco Rodriguez was signed to take over the closing duties. New York traded for J.J. Putz, who may actually be the team’s best reliever, and they received groundball machine Sean Green in the same deal. They also signed Tim Redding who will most likely be the long man, and acquired Connor Robertson by dumping Scott Schoeneweis on Arizona’s lap. For better or worse, the Mets bullpen will have a very different look in 2009.

At this point in the post I should point out that 2008 was a fluke, and bullpens are almost never as big a factor as they were in last season’s NL East race. While the Mets pen imploded, the Phillies enjoyed a perfect season from Brad Lidge. How often do such extremes occur? The majority of a single baseball game is played with the starters still on the mound, so more often than not, it’s the guys taking the ball at the onset of the game that makes the bigger impact.

The Mets brought in some new names on the starting pitching front but whether they’re better than their replacements is unclear. Gone is the ever-entertaining-unless-he’s-on-the-mound-at-that-moment Pedro Martinez. His spot will most likely be taken by Freddy Garcia, who signed an incentive-laden deal that could be worth as much as $8MM. Although just giving the keys to Jonathon Niese may have been the more cost-effective move with the same payoff, Garcia should be fine as a back of the rotation pitcher.

But the team also re-signed lefty Oliver Perez to a three-year $36MM that I knew was coming the moment Derek Lowe signed with Atlanta. Once the Braves ponied up, the Mets lost a ton of leverage in their negotiations with Scott Boras. Oliver Perez is a league average pitcher. And apparently, this still costs you $36MM. I kind of want to weep.

For all the Mets’ moves, the fans are fixated on the player the team didn’t sign — Manny Ramirez. The team currently plans on sending out a platoon of lefty Daniel Murphy and righty Fernando Tatis into leftfield and to say that neither is of the caliber of Ramirez is quite the understatement. However, if the Mets were to get involved in the Manny hunt, the organization would dramatically increase Boras’ leverage once again.  Ramirez has already turned down $25MM/1 and $45MM/2 offers – and that’s with only one team (Dodgers) actually bidding.

The true motivation behind the Mets’ refusal to become involved in the Ramirez sweepstakes is unclear. Are they wary of signing a 36-year old to a three-year deal worth what could be $75MM? Did they determine that his bat isn’t worth his antics? Or did the Madoff ponzi scheme (Mets co-owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz reportedly lost hundreds of millions) drastically change any plans Omar Minaya had drawn up?

The only excuse that won’t sit well with me is #2. Clearly, Manny did not prevent the Red Sox from winning two championships. Joe Posnanski thinks he’s a winner. And that’s good enough for me. While his defense in left may be comedic, how much worse is he than Tatis or Murphy – neither of whom were outfielders before 2008?

OFFSEASON TRANSACTIONS:

Added: Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Freddy Garcia, Sean Green, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding, Cory Sullivan, Rob Mackowiak, Bobby Kielty, Valerio de los Santos, Alex Cora, Jeremy Reed, Casey Fossum, Connor Robertson, Rocky Cherry, Darren O’Day

Lost: Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, Endy Chavez, Joe Smith, Luis Ayala, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Ambiorix Burgos, Damion Easley, Orlando Hernandez, Ricardo Rincon, Matt Wise

PROJECTED LINEUP:

C: Brian Schneider
1B: Carlos Delgado
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Ryan Church

PITCHING:

SP1: Johan Santana
SP2: Mike Pelfrey
SP3: John Maine
SP4: Oliver Perez
SP5: Freddy Garcia/Jon Niese/Livan Hernandez/Tim Redding

CL: Francisco Rodriguez

GRADE: C-

I suppose it’s to Omar Minaya’s credit that he didn’t push the panic button after two consecutive late-season failures. Then again, the Mets didn’t have many tradable assets. The only area of the team that received much attention was the bullpen, which is, on paper, improved quite a bit. However, the Mets cannot count on Murphy and Tatis to perform as well as they did last season. And the clock is ticking on Carlos Beltran, who is no longer young. Plus Delgado, Schneider and Castillo are past their primes and in decline. If logic holds, the Mets will not score as many runs this year as they did in 2008.

So the question becomes: can they prevent more from scoring? Johan Santana is still among the elite. While he had a very strong 2008, Mike Pelfrey needs to prove that it was no fluke. John Maine is coming back from shoulder surgery and Oliver Perez will continue to give fans occassional major headaches. So the key once again may be in the hands of the bullpen. Anddue to the nature of relievers – having so few innings to perform at a high level – that is always going to be a crapshoot.

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