This is part of a series of posts wherein we belittle teams for their bewildering offseason buffoonery, or else extol them their their excellent preseason exploits.

The Rockies’ moves this offseason ooze competence. After making a surprising run to the NL Wild Card berth last season, thanks to the emergence of young stars like 3B Ian Stewart (25 homers), LF Seth Smith (124 OPS+), and CF Dexter Fowler (27 SB), plus the reemergence of former stars like Troy Tulowitzki (32 homers) and Todd Helton (.325 avg), the Rockies found themselves in a bit of a bind this offseason, with ownership unwilling to raise payroll, but natural increases due to arbitration-eligible players scheduled to put them at or over last year’s $75 million payroll before they even made a single move.

Ubaldo Jimenez (15 wins, 3.47 ERA, 218 IP) emerged as an ace in 2009.

General manager Dan O’Dowd and the Rockies front office nevertheless did the best they could with limited resources, saving some money by cutting ties with a bunch of pitchers like Alan Embree, Joe Beimel, and Josh Fogg, selling Matt Murton to Japan for cash, and letting Jason Marquis, Garrett Atkins, and Yorvit Torrealba walk as free agents, and then turning around and signing Melvin Mora (1 year, $1.3M) to back up at third base, Miguel Olivo (1 year, $2M) to push Chris Ianetta at catcher, and re-signing Jason Giambi (1 year, $1.75M) to back up Helton at first base.

These are nice little deals in that the Rockies get experienced veterans who provide experience off the bench and can step into a starting role if needed, but without committing to any big, multi-year contracts. These are not just journeymen bench-riders either, as all three of these players began 2009 as full-time players. Olivo, in particular, had a nice little year for the Royals, slugging 23 homers as a catcher. Although his career .272 OPB is still as putrid as ever, it will be fun to see how many dingers he can hit in Coors Field should he somehow win the starting job.

The Rockies also looked ahead and signed several of their young players out of arbitration years, locking up closer Huston Street to a 3-year deal, inking Ianetta to a 3-year deal with a team option for a fourth year, and signing outfielder Ryan Spilborghs to a 2 year pact. All of these deals are at very reasonable prices, although the one move I didn’t like was resigning Spilborghs. The Rockies seem committed to wasting even more at-bats on him despite his definitively proving last season that he cannot be counted on to pull his weight at the plate if given more than a handful of plate appearances.

Overall, none of these moves will awe you, but the Rockies quietly went about excising a bunch of dead weight while making small improvements and planning ahead for the future when they will be free of horrible contracts to Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton, by locking up some young talent at reasonable prices.

The only real loss was starting pitcher Jason Marquis, whom the Rockies could not afford to keep, but it remains to be seen whether he is really as good as he seemed last season or whether it was all a fluke, and in any case Jeff Francis will be coming back from shoulder surgery to take his place in the rotation so the Rockies might not miss a beat.

One does wish that ownership might have opened up the wallet a bit more to really build some momentum off of a 92-win season, but they did increase payroll by $5 million this season, to slightly north of $80 million, and with the Dodgers in disarray, the Giants still GM’d by Brian Sabean, and the Rockies in possession of a strong, youthful core, it might just be enough to take the division.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: 3B Melvin Mora, C Miguel Olivo

Losses: SP Jason Marquis, 3B Garrett Atkins, C Yorvit Torrealba, RP Joe Beimel, RP Alan Embree, OF Matt Murton, RP Matt Herges, SP Jose Contreras, SP Josh Fogg

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C – Chris Ianetta
1B – Todd Helton
2B – Clint Barmes
3B – Ian Stewart
SS – Troy Tulowitzki
LF – Seth Smith
CF – Dexter Fowler/Carlos Gonzalez
RF – Brad Hawpe

SP1 – Ubaldo Jimenez
SP2 – Aaron Cook
SP3 – Jeff Francis
SP4 – Jorge De La Rosa
SP5 – Jason Hammel

CL – Huston Street

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This is part of a series of posts wherein we belittle teams for their bewildering offseason buffoonery, or else extol them their their excellent preseason exploits.

Many pundits are proclaiming that the Seattle Mariners had the best offseason of any team, and it’s easy to see why. First, they had an utterly unforseen gift from the gods fall into their laps in October when hugely overpaid catcher Kenji Johjima (and Bill Bavasi’s last big mistake) opted out of the $16 million remaining on his contract in order to return to the comforts of Japan.

Then, in perhaps the busiest offseason of any team, they inked ace Felix Hernandez (5 years, $78M) and star centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez (4 years, $20.25M) to big extensions, resigned shortstop Jack Wilson (2 years, $10M), DH Ken Griffey Jr. (1 year, $2.35M), starter Erik Bedard (1 year, $1.5M), lured Chone Figgins from the Halos to the tune of 5 years, $45M, took cheap free agent gambles on 1B Ryan Garko (1 year, $0.55M) and OF Eric Byrnes (1 year, $0.4M), traded Carlos Silva to the Cubs for Milton Bradley in a swap of unwanted parts, shipped IF/OF Bill Hall to the Red Sox for 1B Casey Kotchman, acquired Brandon League and a prospect from the Blue Jays in a trade of relievers named “Brandon”, and of course, stunned the baseball world by landing a second ace in the form of Cliff Lee by shipping 3 prospects off in a three way deal with the Jays and Phillies.

Hail to the King: M's fans are ecstatic to be keeping Hernandez, but it's costing the team top dollar.

With this large number of moves to acquire or lock up several solid players, just about everyone is picking the Mariners to win the division this year, but I am not sold. Of course, just about everyone would love to have players like King Felix, Gutierrez, Figgins, and Cliff Lee on their teams, but I have questions or concerns about many of these moves.

The Mariners obviously felt they simply had to lock up fan favorite Felix Hernandez, but it is not as if they got much of a hometown discount, if any. I’m not against paying top dollar for top pitchers, of which Hernandez is undeniably one, but I’ve always been leery of paying top dollar for pitchers in a guaranteed contract of more than a few years, because all it will take is one significant injury to turn this deal into a high priced bust.

Of course I was also against resigning Griffey, because he is unlikely to return value at this stage in his career, even at the modest price, and more importantly will be taking precious at-bats away from somebody better, but at least Griffey is only on a one year deal, as are Garko, Byrnes, and Bedard, which I thought were all good gambles for low prices.

The free agent signing I really question, however, is Chone Figgins. Although Figgins has been a great player thus far in his career and had a fantastic 2009 season, he is already 32 years old, and will be 36 years old by the time he is playing his vested option year in 2014. Given that much of Figgins’ game, both on offense and defense, depends on speed and a first quick step, and that these are the first things players lose in their early 30’s, it seems likely that Figgins will not be returning nearly much value by the end of this deal. Figgins is going to have to continue to play at or near peak performance well into his 30s to make this deal even out for the M’s.

Finally, I have questions about the thinking behind the Cliff Lee deal. Although a lot of baseball watchers are saying that the Phillies should have gotten more out of the Mariners for Lee, the fact is that Lee is in his walk year this season. This is a bold, win-now move in that if the Mariners don’t at least make the postseason this year, they will have traded three top prospects away, including their best hitting prospect, Tyson Gillies, and their second best pitching prospect, Philippe Aumont, for a draft pick or two. Despite some of the solid moves Seattle has made this offseason, I’m not at all sure that they can outrun the Angels for the AL West crown (or even the Rangers, for that matter), so I’m not sure the timing was quite right to make this kind of strike. They definitely have a shot this year, but it’s a big roll of the dice.

What really worries me about this team is how truly weak the offense is. The Mariners were dead last in the American League in runs scored in 2009, with a paltry 640, and this year their offense, incredibly enough, is even worse on paper. In particular, this team will have almost no power at all after the loss of Russ Branyan, Bill Hall, and Adrian Beltre (replaced by Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, and Figgins). It’s possible that Bradley might make up for some of the lost ground if he hits like he did in his career year in Texas two years ago, manages to stay on the field for more than half the season, and keeps his legendary anger in check, but those are big ifs, all three.

What is clear is that the Seattle Mariners under GM Jack Zduriencik value defense more than any other organization in the game, including even Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s, and this offseason the team decided to double down on defense with the signings of Wilson, Langerhans, Figgins, Byrnes, and Gutierrez and the trade for Kotchman.

But after a certain point, you have to stop and think, “Gee, having a great defense is great and all, but eventually we have to not only stop the other team from scoring but actually have to put some runs on the board ourselves.” I would have liked to see the Mariners do a bit more to try to address their league-worst offense this offseason before I can give them a high offseason grade. Ryan Garko is simply not enough, and all I can say is, while Felix might be used to pitching in all of those 1-0 and 2-1 games by now, Cliff Lee is in for a rude surprise going from one of the best offenses in the game to one of the worst.

Offseason Grade: B

Acquisitions: SP Cliff Lee, 3B Chone Figgins, OF Milton Bradley, 1B Ryan Garko, 1B Casey Kotchman, RP Brandon League, OF Eric Byrnes

Losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Russell Branyan, C Kenji Johjima, OF Endy Chavez, UT Bill Hall, SP Carlos Silva, RP Miguel Batista, RP Brandon Morrow

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C – Rob Johnson
1B – Casey Kotchman
2B – Jose Lopez
3B – Chone Figgins
SS – Jack Wilson
LF – Milton Bradley/Eric Byrnes
CF – Franklin Gutierrez
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Ken Griffey Jr.

SP1 – Felix Hernandez
SP2 – Cliff Lee
SP3 – Eric Bedard
SP4 – Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP5 – Ian Snell

CL – David Aardsma

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This is one in a series of posts where we laud teams’ shrewd offseason acquisitions and pan their terrible trades and silly signings.

Last week, the Astros signed GM Ed Wade to a 2-year contract extension, and owner Drayton McLane was quick to praise Wade:

“Ed is an outstanding baseball man. He’s organized and has surrounded himself with a good, solid staff. Much of the work Ed did in Philadelphia had a lot to do with them becoming a champion. We feel he has us moving in the right direction to be a champion as well.”

Moving in the right direction? That’s a tough sell. The Astros finished 2009 in fifth place, 17 games behind the Cardinals. What’s more, they were incredibly lucky, as the team’s Pythagorean record suggests they should have won 7 fewer games.

Houston is one of the oldest teams in baseball and most of the organization’s best players (Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman) are in decline. What’s more, little help is on the way. Recently, Keith Law ranked the Astros farm system 28th, and only catching prospect Jason Castro is poised to make the jump to the bigs anytime soon.

With vacancies at shortstop and third base and McLane bent on spending less in 2010, what did Wade do this offseason?

He spent big on a reliever, that’s what. Brandon Lyon got a three-year deal worth $15M even though, in seven professional seasons, Lyon has only once been worth $5M. It was a reckless signing, a move that drew criticism from all parts of the interwebs, and for good reason.

Wade did make a few less crazy moves. He signed 3B Pedro Feliz for $4.5M — a lot of money to pay for a third baseman with a bad back who can’t hit, but at least it was only a one-year deal. And Feliz will almost certainly be an improvement over Geoff Blum, who played third for the ‘Stros last season.

For $5.1M, Wade landed Brett Myers, an asshole who gives up way to many home runs. His HR/FB rate in nearly 1,200 innings is 15.5 percent.

Wade traded for Matt Lindstrom, who at $1.6M for one year is a good gamble, even though he sucked last year. If Lindstrom can remember how to limit home runs, he could be a great bargain, and Houston didn’t give up much to get him.

As for the shortstop vacancy, Wade gave the job to slick fielding minor leaguer Tommy Manzella, who has a .321 OBP in five minor league seasons. Manzella is going to have to be awfully good with the glove to justify what most people project will be pretty meager offensive production.

I don’t expect the Astros to be horrible this season. Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez are a formidable pair atop the rotation (though the rest of the rotation is much less intimidating). And Houston has some power, with Lee, Hunter Pence and Berkman all capable of hitting 30 homers.

But these guys need to learn to take a walk. The Astros were 13th in the NL in OBP last season, and that doesn’t stand to improve much with Manzella replacing Miguel Tejada at short.

Moreover, even if Houston’s aging vets can stay healthy (a big if), the team doesn’t look built to compete with the Cardinals or Cubs. The Reds, too, look better on paper.

Maybe the best thing the Astros did this offseason is finish construction on their Dominican Republic Academy, which will open later this spring. After years of crappy drafts and inattention to international scouting, it seems the Astros are finally starting to wake up to the importance of building from the ground up. Better late than never.

Offseason Grade: D

Acquisitions: SP Brett Myers, 3B Pedro Feliz, RP Brandon Lyon, RP Matt Lindstrom.

Losses: RP Jose Valverde, 3B Brett Boone, RP Doug Brocail, RP LaTroy Hawkins, SS Miguel Tejada, 1B Darin Erstad, C Chris Coste.

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C J.R. Towles
1B Lance Berkman
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Pedro Feliz
SS Tommy Manzella
LF Carlos Lee
CF Michael Bourn
RF Hunter Pence

SP1 Roy Oswalt
SP2 Wandy Rodriguez
SP3 Brett Myers
SP4 Brian Moehler Bud Norris
SP5 Brandon Backe Felipe Paulino/Brian Moehler

CL Brandon Lyon

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This is one in a series of posts where we laud teams’ shrewd offseason acquisitions and pan their terrible trades and silly signings.

The Braves finished six games out of first place in 2009, but their Pythagorean record had them only a game back of the Phillies. Moreover, Atlanta can expect continued improvement from Tommy Hanson, who MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes predicts will be one of the NL’s 10 best pitchers in 2010. Super prospect Jason Heyward, meanwhile, is on his way and might make the team out of spring training (especially if he keeps shattering car windows in batting practice).

The Braves could have returned the same lineup as last season and been in position to make a playoff run.

Instead, they traded their best pitcher in a cost-cutting move.

The Braves sent Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and two minor leaguers. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron said the Braves got more for Vazquez than the Phils got for Cliff Lee. Tim Hudson says the Braves’ rotation will still be strong, even without Vazquez. But will it be strong enough? Atlanta’s staff will boast Hudson (who the team signed to a new contract this offseason), Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Kenshin Kawakami, who is better suited to a relief role. It’s a good group, and could be great depending on how Hudson does in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and how young guns Hanson and Jurrjens progress. But the Braves’s staff could have been lights out if only ownership had been willing to spend a little more on Vazquez.

Elsewhere on the diamond, Atlanta signed Troy Glaus to play first base, a position at which he has played in only six games in his career. If Glaus is healthy, the signing could be a real coup, as the slugger is a regular threat to hit 30 home runs. But Glaus missed all but 14 games last season with St. Louis, after having arthroscopic shoulder surgery and experiencing a setback when he tried to make it back in time for opening day. Signing a first baseman to a one-year deal made sense, since the Braves expect prospect Freddie Freeman to be ready as early as 2011. But it’s a little surprising that a team that already boasts one oft-injured corner infielder (Chipper, we’re looking at you) would want to add another.

The Braves also signed the tatted up Eric Hinske, who’s played in the World Series three years in a row with three different teams. Hinske’s not good enough to play everyday, nor is he an ideal platoon partner for Matt Diaz, since both hit lefties better than righties but could be a platoon partner for the lefty-crushing Diaz.

In an ideal world, Hinske will spend most of his time on the bench, pinch hitting and providing outfield and first base depth. But that’s only possible if Heyward makes the team out of spring training. Then Cabrera and Diaz can platoon in left.

Atlanta also tinkered with its bullpen this offseason, letting Mike Gonzalez walk and trading Rafael Soriano (who surprised the team by accepting salary arbitration). GM Frank Wren signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to replace them, two old guys who are looking to prove they’ve still got what it takes.

The net result?

Atlanta took a big step back by dealing Vazquez, who was worth more than 6 games above replacement last season. To make up the difference, the Braves will be betting on solid health from Jones, Wagner, Saito and Glaus, and a return to form from Lowe. And that’s a lot to hope for. If only the team had found the cash to keep Vazquez. If only.

Grade: C-

Added: OF Melky Cabrera, IF Troy Glaus, CL Billy Wagner, RP Takashi Saito.

Lost: 1B Adam LaRoche, SP Javier Vazquez, CL Rafael Soriano, RP Mike Gonzalez.

Projected lineup, rotation, and closer:

C Brian McCann
1B Troy Glaus
2B Martin Prado
SS Yunel Escobar
3B Chipper Jones
RF Jason Heyward/Eric Hinske
LF Melky Cabrera/Matt Diaz
CF Nate McLouth

SP Tim Hudson
SP Derek Lowe
SP Kenshin Kawakami
SP Jair Jurrjens
SP Tommy Hanson

CL Billy Wagner

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This is part of a series of posts wherein we belittle teams for their boneheaded winter bumbling, or else praise them their their prescient preseason ploys.

The Oakland A’s had a busy offseason. Despite trimming payroll by about $10 million from last season to this season, they found some spare change in the clubhouse couch to make a few moves in the free agent market, signing Coco Crisp to take over in center field (1 year, $4.5 million), inking Gabe Gross as a backup outfielder (1 year, $785,000), and gambling on oft-injured starter Ben Sheets (1 year, $10 million).

True outcome fans will be pleased that the good-natured Cust returns for another season of never putting the ball in play

In addition, they managed to resign three true outcomes champion Jack Cust to return as DH (1 year, $2.65 million) and starter Justin Duchscherer (1 year, $2 million), who missed all last season due to injury.

They also made a flurry of trades. First they traded some spare parts to the Chicago Cubs for positionless masher Jake Fox and futility infielder Aaron Miles. Then they flipped Miles to the Reds for outfielder Willy Taveras and infielder Adam Rosales, only to release Taveras to make room on the roster to sign Gross.

Next they managed to insert themselves into the blockbuster Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee deal between Philadelphia, Seattle, and Toronto as a minor fourth party, shipping 3B prospect Brett Wallace (whom they had acquired from the Cardinals last season in the Matt Holliday deal) to Toronto for outfield prospect Michael Taylor.

Lastly, they returned erstwhile Padre Scott Hairston to San Diego along with outfield prospect Aaron Cunningham for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and a minor leaguer, siginaling that the A’s have finally given up once and for all on the idea that Eric Chavez will ever be healthy again.

Although the A’s will once again have one of the lowest payrolls in the game, at around $50 million on opening day, Billy Beane keeps doing what he always does, wheeling and dealing and creatively patching the leaky hulk that is the perennially undermanned A’s as best he can through sheer guile.

His approach this offseason appears to be the same as the one he has used for the past few years: an approach that Fangraphs has summarized as “Adam Dunns and Endy Chavezes”, i.e. scooping up players who are undervalued either because they are really good at defense or really bad at defense.

The problem is that it’s never really enough. You can have every player on your whole team returning you more theoretical value than they are actually getting paid, but if your team payroll is only $50 million it still might not add up to enough value overall to get your team into the playoffs.

All that said, you still have to like a lot of these moves if you are an A’s fan. Crisp and Cust are almost sure to return more value than they are getting paid, Fox is a good bat to have around, and Duchscherer is a good gamble at only $2 million because even though he’s coming off of injuries, when healthy he has been very, very good. The Kouzmanoff deal is also very exciting for the A’s because they’ll finally have a legitimate third baseman who is good with both the bat and the glove, and Kouzmanoff is still under team control for three years.

The one move I find questionable is signing Ben Sheets. Sheets has not cleared the 200 innings mark since 2004, so it’s hard to expect true ace-like dominance for a whole season from him. If he even clears 165 innings this year, you would have to call that a success, but given the downside risk, is that really worth $10 million? Are the A’s really just one healthy Ben Sheets away from contention that it’s worth spending one-fifth of their entire team payroll on a gamble that he can stay on the field?

I also wonder what is going to happen with this team in 2011. All these 1-year contracts are great in that there’s less risk for the team and more flexibility, but the A’s have basically no one at all under contract for 2011 (nope, not even Eric Chavez!!), so that is an awful lot of flexibility. There’s something to be said for having some certainty, but then again, maybe Billy Beane doesn’t really care much for certainty.

In the end, it was a very eventful offseason, and most of the moves were solid, but it doesn’t look like the A’s really did enough to get themselves over the hump and back into contention, especially with Seattle going for broke and the Angels reloading. The Athletics have still got an awful lot of talented young players coming up through the pipeline though, especially talented young pitchers, so maybe something exciting will happen with all that roster flexibility in 2011. 2010 though, could be another long year in Oak-town.

Grade: B

Acquisitions: SP Ben Sheets, OF Coco Crisp, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, IF Jake Fox, OF Gabe Gross, IF Adam Rosales

Losses: SP Dana Eveland, SS Bobby Crosby, OF Scott Hairston, IF Nomar Garciaparra, IF Adam Kennedy, 3B Brett Wallace

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C – Kurt Suzuki
1B – Daric Barton/Jake Fox
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS – Cliff Pennington
LF – Rajai Davis
CF – Coco Crisp
RF – Ryan Sweeney
DH – Jack Cust

SP1 – Ben Sheets
SP2 – Justin Duchscherer
SP3 – Brett Anderson
SP4 – Dallas Braden
SP5 – Trevor Cahill

CL – Andrew Bailey

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This is part of a series of posts wherein we fustigate teams for their foolhardy offseason fumbles, or else fervently fawn over their felicitous free-agent finesse.

The Tampa Bay Rays had a rather quiet offseason. The big move was acquiring closer Rafael Soriano in a trade with the salary-dumping Braves.

2B Zobrist emerged as a potential superstar last year, posting an MLB-best 8.6 WAR

Otherwise, the Rays just made two other, tiny moves, trading a minor leaguer to the Indians for backup catcher Kelly Shoppach to provide some competition and another option for incumbent Dioner Navarro, who slumped badly last season, and signing journeyman 1B Dan Johnson to play a role off the bench.

But sometimes less is more, and that is certainly the case with the Rays this offseason. Other than finding a closer, which they successfully did, there were really no other moves to make, as the Rays are completely stacked up and down the roster for 2010 with hot young stars.

There is nothing the Rays could have done this offseason which would have made them a lock for the playoffs, since they play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, but by largely standing pat, they have insured that they will be in position to make a run should one of the big boys falter this year.

The fact is that the Rays still have a very good team, and blowing up this roster would not have made any sense. Their pythagorean record last year was 86-76, which is very, very good considering the division they play in, and all it would take for the Rays to get back up over 90 wins is for a few players to have break-out seasons, which is very conceivable given how much young talent the Rays will be running out there this year.

In other words, the Rays will have just as good a chance of making the playoffs in 2010 as they have ever had, so Rays fans should not worry too much about this year and just see how things turn out. If Rays fans really want to worry about something, they should worry about 2011, when much of the team will become free agents.

In fact the Rays only have four players signed to any kind of contract after this season, and they are likely to dramatically slash payroll in 2011, having gotten almost no attendence bump from their 2008 World Series run despite raising payroll by $20 million in 2009 and then by another $6 million this year. If I were a Rays fan, I’d be trying to figure out some way to rally my fellow fans to get out to the Trop this year in large numbers, because it would be hard to blame the team for cutting payroll in 2011 if the fans continue to be AWOL despite the genuinely exciting product on the field.

Grade: B+

Acquisitions: CL Rafael Soriano, C Kelly Shoppach, 1B Dan Johnson

Losses: 2B Akinori Iwamura, OF Gabe Gross, RP Jason Isringhausen, RP Troy Percival, RP Russ Springer, RP Joe Nelson, RP Brian Shouse, RP Chad Bradford

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C – Dioner Navarro
1B – Carlos Pena
2B – Ben Zobrist
3B – Evan Longoria
SS – Jason Bartlett
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – BJ Upton
RF – Gabe Kapler/Matt Joyce
DH – Pat Burrell

SP1 – James Shields
SP2 – Matt Garza
SP3 – Jeff Neimann
SP4 – David Price
SP5 – Wade Davis

CL – Rafael Soriano

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

This is part of a series of posts wherein we maul teams for their malodorous offseason miscues, and deify them for their deftly discerning deals.

Simply put, the Nationals under GM Mike Rizzo had an outstanding offseason.

Last summer I wrote that with the Phillies starting to age, the Mets in disarray, and some big contracts coming off the books for Washington this offseason, the Nats have a possible window for contention in 2010.

Ryan Zimmerman busted out last season to the tune of 33 HR and a world-beating 20.1 UZR on defense

After assessing the Nationals strengths and needs, I wrote that in order to have hopes of taking advantage of this window, this offseason the Nats needed to find a front-of-the-rotation starter, a second baseman, and a closer. Estimating that the team might be able to find about $16 million or so to spend on free agents, I offered a scenario in which the Nats might sign John Lackey, Adam Kennedy, and Kevin Gregg.

The Nats basically went out and did everything I wanted, but even better and more sensibly than my suggestion. They actually scrounged up $17 million for free agents, and did go out and get a front-line starter, a second baseman and a closer. They actually did sign Adam Kennedy, just as I suggested (for a very reasonable 1 year, $1.25 million), but instead of getting Lackey (which was probably entirely unrealistic of me to even propose), they took very reasonable gambles on Jason Marquis (2 years, $15M) and Chien-Ming Wang (1 year, $2M), both of whom have shown front-line starter ability in the past, Marquis as recently as last year. Instead of Gregg for closer, they signed Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year but also was cheap, at only 1 year, $3.5 million, and thus a reasonable gamble.

The Nationals were also incredibly busy this offseason signing experienced veterans to minor league deals. If you are going to bring in some experienced vets for depth, this is the way to do it, as minor league deals involve no risk for the team. These are the kind of deals that don’t get much attention from the columnists at ESPN or wherever, and are often not made by lesser GMs, but which can make or break a team’s chances at the playoffs by providing essential depth when regulars inevitably wear down mid-season or succumb to freak injuries.

Minor league signings by the Nats this offseason include SP/RP Miguel Batista, UT Eric Bruntlett, OF Chris Duncan, SP Shawn Estes, RP Eddie Guardado, SP Livan Hernandez, SP Chuck James, OF Keven Mench, OF Jerry Owens, CF Willy Taveras, and RP Tyler Walker. Some of these guys are over the hill and others were never all that good to begin with (there’s a reason why they’re taking minor league deals), but all have significant major league experience and can probably be relied upon to step in and provide replacement level play for short periods, plus there is always the chance that one or two of them will discover some of the old magic at some point and become a significant contributor.

The one move by the Nats that I did not like was signing Ivan Rodriguez to a 2-year, $6 million deal. It’s not that much money, but even so, this deal struck me as overly long at two years, overly expensive, and not at all necessary, since Jesus Flores is quite good both offensively and defensively, and Pudge is no longer very good at all.

But overall it was a great offseason for the Nats. Mike Rizzo successfully recognized that the Nats have a window this season, correctly identified his his team’s needs, somehow cajoled ownership into giving him the necessary funds, and then made prudent, reasonable signings, all short-term deals that will not hurt the team going forward, and which, if gambles pay off, could put the team on the verge of contention this year.

A lot will still have to go right for the Nationals to reach the playoffs, obviously, but Rizzo did almost everything right this offseason, and is now officially my new favorite general manager.

Grade: A

Acquisitions: SP Jason Marquis, SP Chien-Ming Wang, C Ivan Rodriguez, RP Matt Capps

Losses: 1B Dmitri Young, OF Austin Kearns, C Josh Bard, RP Mike MacDougal, RP Saul Rivera

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C – Jesus Flores
1B – Adam Dunn
2B – Adam Kennedy
3B – Ryan Zimmerman
SS – Cristian Guzman
LF – Josh Willingham
CF – Nyjer Morgan
RF – Elijah Dukes

SP1 – Jason Marquis
SP2 – John Lannan
SP3 – Chien-Ming Wang
SP4 – Scott Olson/Steven Strasberg
SP5 – Livan Hernandez/Garrett Mock/Craig Stammen/Ross Detweiler

CL – Matt Capps

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This is part of a series of posts wherein we deride teams for their dazed and demented offseason dithering, or else deify them for their deftly discerning deals.

The good news this offseason is that the Giants were able to re-sign their second best hitter from last season, despite stiff competition from the New York Mets. The bad news is that said second best hitter was 36-year-old catcher Bengie Molina, he of the .285 OBP, and that Molina will spend another year blocking the Giant’s best prospect, Buster Posey, who is ready to catch in the majors now and would almost certainly outhit Molina.

The Giants are counting on another legendary season from Lincecum in order to be anywhere near contention.

Good ol’ Brian Sabean. Despite having the best pitching staff in the game fall into his lap in the form of top hurlers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jon Sanchez, and Brian Wilson, Sabean’s ongoing incompetence when it comes to assembling even a vague semblance of an offense ensured that the Giants were last in the majors in most offensive categories last season and fell just short of the playoffs with 88 wins.

But still, the Giants were just a few wins shy of the postseason last year, which is nothing to shake a stick at, so Sabean’s mission this offseason was clear: just do what ever it took to add a bit of offense. Sadly for Giants fans, in this mission he has largely failed.

The big moves on the offensive front, in addition to re-signing Molina, were signing Mark DeRosa to play left field, and letting incumbent first baseman Ryan Garko walk as a free agent, in order to sign Aubrey Huff. The problem with these moves is that they do nothing whatsoever to improve the team.

Mark DeRosa is the definition of a “league average” hitter. His career OPS+ is 97, and last year it was 99 – about as close as you can get to average. This is great news if DeRosa is going to play second base or something, but if he is going to play left field, which is a premier offensive position, than league average hitting is going to equal far below average hitting among left-fielders. In fact, The difference between playing Mark DeRosa in left field vs. playing Fred Lewis, who the Giants already had, is a net of exactly 0 wins of difference.

Huff, meanwhile, has fallen off a cliff and into an abyss, as far as offensive performance goes, and his defense is pretty horrible too. Last year he was worth negative $4.5 million for the Orioles and Tigers, according to FanGraphs. I’m not sure what Sabean was thinking here, as the now-departed Garko will almost certainly outhit Huff this season. Actually I do know what Sabean was thinking – the same thing he’s always thinking: how can I sign as many experienced big-name veterans as possible, regardless of their age or actually ability?

On the pitching front there was a bit of good news as the Giants avoided arbitration with Lincecum and managed to sign him to a two year deal. But it’s not like they got a bargain or anything, signing him at just about exactly what he would get in arbitration should he continue to pitch as if he’s in a higher league than every one else, so while the Giants save themselves some headache for next year, they will also be on the hook for $14 million in 2011, even if Lincecum blows out his arm.

Otherwise, not much happened. The Giants did bring in swingman Todd Wellemeyer to compete with Madison Bumgardner for the final spot in the rotation now that Randy Johnson has retired, and the guess here is that Wellemeyer wins out, because Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy have never shown even the slightest interest in giving young players a hand before unless their hand is completely forced. They also brought in Guillermo Mota to replace Bob Howry in a setup role in the pen – this should be a small downgrade.

Overall, I can’t see anything the Giants did to improve themselves this offseason, and their defense probably got a bit worse with the loss of outfielder Randy Winn to the Yankees and reduced playing time at first base for Travis Ishikawa. Meanwhile, they’re counting on their pitching staff to maintain its performance from last year, which was the best by a Giants staff in nearly 50 years.

The Giants still have a good team, on balance, and you can never count out a team with a stellar pitching staff, especially one headed by a guy like Lincecum, because the offense would only have to improve a tiny bit to put up a bunch of extra wins, which could always happen due to random fluctuations in BABIP or something, but the Giants really didn’t do anything this offseason to bring them much closer to their goals or give their fans hope that they’ll be anything bridesmaids again this year.

Grade: D

Acquisitions: UT Mark DeRosa, 1B Aubrey Huff, SP Todd Wellemeyer, RP Guillermo Mota

Losses: SP Randy Johnson, SP Brad Penny, OF Randy Winn, 1B Ryan Garko, RP Bob Howry

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C – Bengie Molina
1B – Aubrey Huff
2B – Freddy Sanchez
3B – Pablo Sandoval
SS – Edgar Renteria
LF – Mark DeRosa
CF – Aaron Rowand
RF – Nate Scheirholtz

SP1 – Tim Lincecum
SP2 – Matt Cain
SP3 – Jonathan Sanchez
SP4 – Barry Zito
SP5 – Todd Wellemeyer

CL – Brian Wilson

- Hot Offseason Action Index -