The Cardinals offense was just so-so in 2009, despite the presence of hitting god Albert Pujols. St. Louis was square in the middle of the pack in slugging, wOBA, and OBP. Where they excelled was pitching. The Cards’ pitchers issued the fewest walks in the league and had the third best FIP, allowing St. Louis to run away with the NL Central.

This offseason, St. Louis is faced with the prospect of losing midseason acquisitions Matt Holliday, John Smoltz and Mark DeRosa — no small potatoes. Joel Pineiro, Rick Ankiel, and Troy Glaus are also free agents.

How will the Cardinals repeat as NL Central champs, in light of this large group of likely departing players?

Let’s start with the easy one. DeRosa isn’t coming back. The Cardinals have a perfectly good third baseman in September-call-up David Freese, who’s hit over .300 at every minor league stop he’s made, and also has a reputation as an above-average defender. Freese might not light the world on fire in 2010, but Cardinals GM expects he’ll be a two-win player, and for a guy making the minimum, that ain’t bad.

In left field, Holliday probably won’t be back. I mean, maybe he will. But as the biggest name on the free agent market there will be a lot of pressure on Holliday to go to whichever team offers the most money. Maybe St. Louis will outbid the Yankees and Red Sox, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Other outfield options include Johnny Damon, Coco Crisp and Jason Bay. The Cards might consider Marlon Byrd, who made about $3MM last season and is generally worth around $10MM (though his value would decrease if he shifted to LF). But I’d be wary that he could repeat his hitting success away from the cozy confines of Arlington and hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo. I’d advocate the Cards pursue a left fielder via trade, but I could only speculate about who would be available and what that player might cost.

The other outfield spots will be manned by Ryan Ludwick and Colby Rasmus, who is primed for a breakout season. (He will be on my fantasy team. Oh yes, he will be on my team.)

As for the pitchers, the Redbirds will return the bulk of their starting staff, including Cy Young runners-up Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Kyle Lohse will also return. Mozeliak recently told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch the team will try to upgrade its rotation if they fail to land Holliday, though John Lackey isn’t in the team’s plans. I say bring back Smoltz, who won’t command a multi-year deal. After Smoltz moved to the NL last season, he struck out 9.5 per 9. The final spot could go to Pineiro, or another B-level SP like Brett Myers, Carl Pavano or Brad Penny (aka the d-bag group).

Conclusion: The Cards have Pujols, a maturing Rasmus, two Cy-Young candidates, a promising rookie third baseman, a loyal fanbase, a pretty stadium and roughly $20MM to burn this offseason. They’ll be fine, even if Holliday doesn’t return.

The Marlins finished in second place in 2009, but the reality is they only scored 6 more runs than they allowed and the third-place Braves had a much better run differential. So Florida will have to improve more than a little if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot in 2010.

Offense isn’t a big problem for the Fish. In 2009, the Marlins scored more runs than every NL team except for the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers and Rockies. But run prevention was a weakness. Division rivals Atlanta and Philadelphia allowed fewer runs.

As usual, the Marlins will insist on spending the bare minimum. Fortunately, improving this team shouldn’t cost much.

The biggest thing Florida can do to improve in 2010 is take Emilio Bonifacio, strap him to a rocket, and shoot him into space. Florida’s insistence on starting Bonifacio at third base and batting him leadoff for much of 2009 cost the team valuable runs. That can’t happen again.

Unfortunately, it might happen again. In his column today, Peter Gammons suggested that the Marlins will probably play Bonifacio at second base in 2010 (after they trade incumbent 2B Dan Uggla to shed payroll):

But if Emilio Bonifacio can play second base and improve his .303 on-base percentage, the Marlins pretty much know who and what they are going to be in 2010.

Bonifacio at second isn’t nearly as great a sin as Bonifacio at third, which is a position where teams generally field a player who contributes power and OBP. But Bonifacio, even if he proves to be a decent defender, should never again be allowed to bat leadoff. Never. Again.

If the Marlins are smart and get rid of Bonifacio altogether, that’ll open up holes at first base and third (assuming free agent 1B Nick Johnson signs elsewhere). Jorge Cantu can plug one of those holes — most likely third base. He’s no Brooks Robinson. Far, far from it. UZR hates Cantu at third. But he’s got decent pop and he’s relatively cheap and he’s in what should be his prime, and because of his defensive struggles he’s got little trade value. So he’ll have to do.

At first base, Gaby Sanchez should be given a shot at the big time after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A. Logan Morrison is probably another year or two away, but could be ready by midseason.

With Uggla on his way out and Bonifacio an unappealing option, rookie of the year Chris Coghlan is another guy to consider at second base. At least, I think he can play second base. He played there in the minor leagues. If he could handle the position in 2010 that would be really great for the Fish. If he can’t, I suppose Florida could put him back in left field, though he wasn’t particularly good there last season. Actually, let me rephrase that. He was particularly bad in left last season. Bill James says he was the 34th best LF in the game, and he cost his team 16 runs, compared to the average left fielder. In fairness, Coghlan had never played the outfield before last season, and he’s likely improve in 2010, given the chance. But he’d have to improve a lot to justify running him out there again.

Florida is set with Camerin Maybin in CF and Cody Ross in one of the corner spots. The Fish are said to be in the market for another corner outfielder (again assuming Coghlan moves to the infield), and presumably Matt Holliday isn’t an option. But there are a couple of free agents out there who might be lured by the prospect of an everyday gig. Maybe Randy Winn, Eric Hinske or Coco Crisp?

As for Florida’s pitching, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are an incredibly solid 1-2 punch. Chris Volstad wasn’t good in 2009, but the 23-year-old groundball pitcher has a good shot at improving in 2010 if he can just surrender a few fewer flyballs. Even if Volstad doesn’t improve his flyball percentage this season, it’s unlikely he’ll once again give up homers at a 17.5% clip.

Andrew Miller, Sean West and Anibal Sanchez can fight it out for the final two rotation spots, and Florida would be wise to pick up a veteran SP to push the youngsters and give Florida one more option for the rotation. Doug Davis or Carl Pavano would be nice pick-ups, if the price were right. And let’s face it, in order for Florida to sign anyone, the price will have to be right.

Conclusion: I’d love to see Florida sign Crisp, who would do a lot to bolster the team’s defense. An outfield of Crisp, Maybin and Ross would be a defensive juggernaut. The real questions are 1. Can Coghlan play second base? 2. Can Cantu provide close to average defense at third? 3. Can Josh Johnson stay healthy? and 4. Can Sanchez hit big league pitching?

That’s a lot of questions, and I’m sure I forgot a few. A lot would have to go right for the Marlins to compete in 2010. But this is a young team, and young teams can sometimes surprise us.

What They Need Index

If you take a quick glance at the Minnesota Twins 2009 campaign, you might deem it a success since they reached the postseason. But taking a closer look at the numbers and you’ll realize that the Twins were basically a carbon copy of their 2008 selves. The difference was essentially the outcome of the second, division-deciding, one-game playoff in as many years (I mean, their records were almost identical!).

Well, not everything was identical. Last year, I pointed out the dearth of power as the Twins hit the least home runs in the American League and this time around, they managed to increase that number by over 50 long balls. Problem is, along with those gains came some significant losses: Had a lower team batting average, stole less bases, allowed more runs and scored less than in 2008.

Even still, their offense was good enough to get them over the hump, posting the third best average in the majors and scoring the fifth most runs. Pitching, on the other hand, was mediocre: Fifth worse ERA and third worse batting average against.

With that said, there are two areas that the Twins need to focus on this offseason, adding a bat or two to the infield, and solidifying their rotation. By trading for J.J. Hardy, who’ll take over a departing Orlando Cabrera at short, while clearing a bit of the log-jam in the outfield in the process (they shipped the inconsistent Carlos Gomez), they’ve plugged a hole in the infield. Question is, will Hardy be a good replacement over Cabrera or even Brendan Harris, who posted better numbers in ‘08?

The Twins also have a hole at third, as the Joe Crede experiment culminated in a third consecutive offseason back surgery.

Btw, this quote from Scott Boras regearding Crede is priceless:

“The great thing about Joe is you’re hiring on a one-year contract,” Boras said. “It’s not often you’re going to get that level of a player to sign for one year.”

Many names are currently being floated in the internetz as possibilities for the Twins to add to their infield, including Brandon Phillips, Felipe Lopez, and Adrian Beltre, so expect another trade or perhaps a run at a free agent like Orlando Hudson.

The Twins also need to improve their rotation as only three starters made more than 29 starts, so it’s no surprise that GM Bill Smith was openly discussing the possibility of bringing in a veteran arm or two.

As it’s always the case, the Twins will try to make all these moves within the scope of their frugality, and any move will have to be tied to a long-term plan, says Smith. Sure, their new stadium is ready go, but any increase in attendance revenue will only be available next offseason.

- What They Need index -

The Red Sox finished 7 games behind the Yankees and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs. How can they avoid a similar fate in 2010?

Boston’s biggest problem in 2009 was defense. They had the third-best run differential in baseball, yet ranked dead last in deff eff for much of the year. Their lineup, while certainly not bad, was not good enough. And their starting pitching, while good, was not good enough in the postseason.

Defense, offense, and pitching sounds like a lot (”Other than that, what did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”) but it’s actually not that bad. Boston has a pretty good team. Their biggest need this winter is the left side of the diamond. They could beef it up with one or more of the following acquisitions:

1. Sign LF Matt Holliday. Theo Epstein has hardly dared to breathe Holliday’s name this winter, and insists loudly to all who will listen that he wants to re-sign Jason Bay. Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much. Of the two, Holliday is clearly the left fielder the Red Sox need, superior on both offense and defense to Bay. (Bay has only once posted a positive UZR; Holliday has only once posted a negative UZR. Bay was worth 33.7 runs on offense, while Holliday’s bat was worth 36. Though some have wondered if Holliday is somehow incapable of hitting in the AL, it’s worth noting that his “terrible” slash line for the A’s was .286/.378/.454. Move him to hitter-friendly Fenway, and I think his righthanded bat will feel right at home. However, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox are loaded up with outfield prospects, so they might not want to commit a lot of money and years to a free agent signing there. (Also, Fire Brand of the American League likes the Jeremy Hermida acquisition.)
2. Sign 3B Adrian Beltre Beltre is another example of a righthanded hitter whose numbers would benefit from moving to Fenway Park, but I’m more interested in another aspect of his game: glovework. Beltre has been outstanding the last TK seasons as a third baseman, and the Red Sox desperately need to improve at third, where Mike Lowell, post-hip surgery, posted an UZR of -10.4. And while Kevin Youkilis can play third, his defense there is neutral, while his defense at first is actually a plus. (I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Boston to trade for a premier first baseman at this time.) If the Red Sox do sign Beltre, what happens to Lowell? I think the Red Sox just need to accept that, for 2010, they’ll have a very expensive DH platoon. To trade either Lowell or Ortiz, the Sox would have to eat a large portion of salary, and I’m doubtful about what they could get in return. Yes, a $25 million platoon is pricey. But those are sunk costs, and both players come off the books after next season — whether the Red Sox win or lose.
3. Acquire a shortstop Theo Epstein already missed out on JJ Hardy, but a girl can dare to dream of Marco Scutaro. Theo supposedly spends his free time scheming of ways to bring Hanley Ramirez back to Boston, but that seems like quite a long shot. Other names that have been bandied about include Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (great, so Bostonians can have another Drew brother to dump on?). It’s also worth mentioning that the Sox have defensively talented Cuban defector Jose Iglesias in their system, who they signed to a big-league deal in September. However, he’ll only be 20 in January and has “a swing-at-anything approach” according to Baseball Prospectus.

I’d be remiss if we didn’t at least talk about Boston’s pitching needs. You can never have too much starting pitching, and the Red Sox have diligently inquired with John Lackey’s agent. However, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll make a big push for him. There are also plenty of Type B free agent pitchers and rehab projects on the market, and the latter will be almost irresistible to Theo Epstein. For the GM who signed Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz, it will be nearly impossible to layoff the reclamation project crack pipe. With Boston’s superb medical staff, if any of these pitchers can be had at reasonable prices, you can bet Epstein will be in on it.

The Red Sox have the deep pockets to make some free agent signings; plus, their current core of home-grown players — Lester, Youkilis, and Pedroia — are all signed to inexpensive, multi-year deals. If the Red Sox can add one of Holliday, Beltre, or Scutaro to beef up the left side of the diamond, and gamble on a good pitcher (or two) coming back from injury, they’ll have a decent shot at knocking the Yankees off their perch.

-What They Need index-

Leave it to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. While all the other baseball hacks are reporting on boring stuff that nobody cares about (trades, signings, the crappiness of the O’Hare Hilton), he’s bringing us the good stuff.

From Crasnick’s Twitter:

In other news .. San Diego OF Kyle Blanks just became the 5th player to get the Matt Sosnick-Paul Cobbe company logo tattooed onto his arm.

and…

“License to Deal” trivia: The other Sosnick-Cobbe tattoo guys are Jon and Jason Pridie, Tigers P Zach Simons and Dontrelle Willis.

That’s right, Matt Sosnick and Paul Cobbe have five (out of 33) Major League clients who have agreed to get their agency’s logo tattooed on them (logo shown in upper right).

Well, actually, John Pridie is no longer a client. He joined the Sosnick-Cobbe team a few years ago as an agent.

I think one of two things is going on here. Either Sosnick and Cobbe are the greatest guys/agents in the whole world and their clients were dying for a way to express their gratitude, or these tattooed players totally misunderstood when Sosnick and Cobbe talked to them about the importance of branding.

What could the world champion, richer-than-God New York Yankees possibly need? What do you get for the team that has (apparently) everything?

The question most Yankee-watchers have been asking is: Who’s in left? World Series MVP Hideki Matsui is a free agent, as is Johnny Damon. Neither player’s health inspires much confidence at this stage, though Damon’s legs have the edge over Matsui’s. Today, we learned that the Yankees may try to keep both players. This is surprising, and I’m inclined to suspect trickery — how can Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein both be professing a strong desire to re-sign their own sub-optimal LF/DH types when there’s Matt Holliday on the market? Could it be because they don’t want to start the inevitable bidding war (Holliday is a Scott Boras client) just yet? Both the Sox and the Yanks need a left-fielder; both teams have plenty of cash; and Holliday is the best one on the market. Let the auction begin! (It’s worth noting that Austin Jackson, one of NY’s top prospects, is an outfielder; but they aren’t relying on him being ready to contribute next year.)

Yet although the Yankees’ outfield has gotten the most attention as the area that needs improvement, even more material to the team’s success next year is beefing up the starting pitching. Despite signing the best two starters on the market last winter, the Yankees actually looked a little thin in the rotation in 2009. As a staff, Yankee pitchers were worth 18.7 wins above replacement — 10th in the majors. The starters ranked 15th in the majors in win probability added, at -0.42, with a fielding independent pitching mark of 4.31, good for 11th in MLB. Somehow I think they had something a little more impressive in mind when they signed CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett (though naturally, I suspect they’re quite pleased with the WS trophy). Yes, Andy Pettitte is getting up there, but it seems to make sense for the Yankees to re-sign him at least as an insurance policy (that is, of course, if he doesn’t retire). The Yankees are also, again, placing faith in their home-grown arms.

However, I do think they need to add to the pitching staff. I see no reason why baseball’s richest team shouldn’t get in on the bidding on John Lackey, for starters, and they should also be looking at Erik Bedard and Rich Harden. Though all three of these pitchers experienced health issues this year — and Bedard may not be ready to go by Opening Day — the Yankees have the kind of cash that lets them recover easily from bad contracts. And when healthy, all three of these guys can throw.

Why should the Yankees make a push on pitching when their offense is so strong? Why does a team that can score more than 900 runs really need to invest even more in starting pitching? Answer: injuries. The Yankees were remarkably healthy this year, especially for a team that’s on the older side. In 2010, if some of their big bats go down, it sure would be nice if they had some strong arms to carry them back to October.

-What They Need index-

So the Phillies are letting Brett Myers walk, and you can feel pretty confident that the biggest reason he’s not sticking around is he was a giant pain in the ass during his Philly tenure.

But let’s give credit where credit is due. Myers’ parting words were classy:

“I was just like, `OK, thanks for putting up with my (stuff),’ ‘’ Myers said. “He thanked me and wished me and my family well.

“I’ll miss the guys on the team and the fans who have supported me. Hopefully I’ll be playing against the Phillies and when I do I want the roughest treatment the fans can give me – when I’m pitching. I’m an opposing player – you have to give it to me.’’

Don’t worry, Brett. We’ll boo your ass. But you saved an NLDS, so we’ll refrain from throwing any batteries.

The Yankees are World Champions again, but it’s not the same this time. Evil Empire? I wish; at least “evil” is interesting.

Instead, what we have is the rise of the boring over the bad. Somehow, Yankeefication has become synonymous with boringification. Johnny Damon: went to the Yankees, became boring. Mark Teixeira: is boring, and thus is perfectly suited for the Yankees. Joba Chamberlain: has a mother who dealt meth. Yet somehow is boring anyway.

Even Alex Rodriguez is boring. You’d think a top slugger who dates starlets could at least manage to be mildly intriguing. And yet Kate Hudson was pretty boring to start with, and is now made even more boring by her association with A-Rod. The news that A-Rod has not one, but two, portraits of himself as a centaur? That should be, if not actually interesting, then perhaps titillating. (If you snoozed through Mythology 101, a centaur is a mythical beast that is half horse, half douchebag.) But it’s completely boring.

The Yankees aren’t even interesting in New York, where the Mets seem to have a lock on mental stimulation. The Mets may have failed spectacularly this year, but at least they failed in a way that engaged the frontal lobe. Sure, the Yankees won the World Series, but they won it dully: They essentially just scored a lot of runs. And yet, not enough runs so as to actually be remarkable.

And in fact, that’s in line with their one-note “strategy” for success over the 2009 regular season: just score a lot of runs. In the middle of the pack in pitching, defense, and baserunning, the Yankees ranked first in MLB in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And as the only team in MLB to score more than 900 runs this season, their games were interminably long even before Jorge Posada started making 4 trips to the mound per at-bat.

Most mind-numbing of all is the debate we’re sure to be inflicted with, post-Series, about the payroll disparity between the Yankees and the Rest. Yes, it’s pretty wearisome when a team wins just by buying the best talent available. But it will be even more tedious to rehash the same tired arguments about salary caps and payroll limits.

What would save the Yankees — and the free, baseball-loving world — from this state of ennui? A better Red Sox team in 2010. Let’s face it: the Yankees only manage to be exciting when they have a worthy foe.

Let’s hope that Theo pulls out all the stops to give the Boring Bombers a run for their (oodles and oodles of) money. Because right now, even hating the Yankees is boring.