Today, the SF Chronicle’s John Shea suggests the NL manager of the year award is a two-man race, between the Rockies’ Jim Tracy and the Giants’ Bruce Bochy.

Here’s his thinking:

Given voters’ tendencies, let’s cross out Lou Piniella (last year’s winner) and Charlie Manuel (no one has won the award after appearing in the previous year’s World Series). It’s also possible to eliminate La Russa and Joe Torre, whose Cardinals and Dodgers are faring as expected.

The Cardinals are faring as expected? Really?

Back in March, ESPN’s experts, all 21 of them, made predictions for the 2009 season. Only 4 of them picked the Cardinals to win the NL Central, and the rest picked the Cubs. Only two picked the Cards to win the Wild Card. In other words, an overwhelming majority thought St. Louis, which is currently 10.5 games up in the Central, would miss the playoffs in 2009.

Of course, those were ESPN’s baseball people. What did the real experts predict?

Here at Umpbump, nobody picked the Cardinals to win the Central, and I was the only one who picked St. Louis to win the Wild Card.

If you’re a fan of number crunching, the PECOTA nerds projected the Cardinals to win 80 games and finish in third place, behind the Cubs and the Brewers.

So as you can see, the Cardinals were never the popular choice to make the playoffs in 2009, which is why it’s silly to eliminate La Russa as a manager of the year candidate.

In fact, I’m going to throw my support behind Big T right now. Because, you know, his ego could use a little stroking.

Earlier today I wrote a post looking back at my preseason picks to see how right I was (to the extent that anybody can be right about something 2/5 of the way through the season). And brother, when I’m right, I’m right. Except when it comes to predicting the AL West. Then I’m (probably) very wrong.

Speaking of very wrong, Paul had the temerity to suggest that I wouldn’t have written about my picks if I had done a crappier job picking. Of course, that’s not true. I have no trouble talking about crappy predictions. To prove it, let’s look at some of Paul’s preseason choices.

NL East: Mets — They’re two games behind the Phillies, which isn’t too bad. But if the Mets make the postseason, their’s will be the crappiest starting rotation to ever pitch in October.
NL West: Diamondbacks — You could make a case that the Diamondbacks have been unlucky this season. And, hey, when your first baseman gets valley fever, that’s pretty unlucky. But you could make an even stronger case that, aside from a very lucky season two years ago, the D-backs haven’t been good since Curt Schilling left. Arizona is 17 games back, and they’re in last place, behind even San Diego and San Francisco. That is woeful.
AL Central: Indians — The Indians are 10 games back with a -17 run differential, but hey, they’ve got Carl Pavano!
AL West: A’s — Paul and I were both blinded by our love of all things Beane, apparently.
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin — How’s triple-A treating you, Cameron? You enjoying the Big Easy?
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider — That sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to impress the voters, I fear.
AL CY Young: C.C. Sabathia — The big fella has been good, but not Cy Young good. Then again, he’s a slow starter. This is far from Paul’s worst pick. Then again, this pick had a lot of competition.

Overall, Paul made some predictions that look like they may pan out, picking the Red Sox to win the AL East and the Yankees to win the AL wild card. But man, he tanked it when it came to the NL West. I can smell that pick from here.

Blogger’s note: I was feeling saucy this afternoon. Paul, I tease because I love.

Here we are, about 2/5 of the way through the season, and I thought it would be fun to take a look back at some of the predictions I made in March and see how they’re holding up.

NL East: Phillies — Obviously, Philadelphia’s pitching has been a disaster of late. But it’s not like the Met’s, with Tim Redding and Livan Hernadez featured prominently in their rotation, are lighting the world on fire. The Phils have lost 6 straight and still lead the NL East by 2 games. I’m actually more worried about the Braves, who are much improved with the addition of Tommy Hanson and Nate McLouth.
NL Central: Cubs — Chicago was the no-brainer choice to win the NL Central before the season started, and now that they’ve won 4 in a row and are only 2.5 games back, they’re looking like they’re finally ready to live up to expectations. Rich Harden’s inconsistency is a worry, but the team should get a boost when Aramis Ramirez returns from the DL, and they’ve got the pieces to make a dealine move.
NL West: Dodgers — Easy pick.
NL Wild Card: Cardinals — If the playoffs started today, St. Louis would win the Central. So I’m looking pretty good here. By no means are the Cards a lock, but they’re as good a bet as any. And it’s hard to bet against Albert Pujols.

AL East: Rays — The Rays are in fourth place and are 6 games behind the Red Sox. But their run differential is the best in the AL, at +76. They’ll be a real threat in the second half, and could yet make me look smart.
AL Central: Twins — I honestly didn’t know who to pick in this division, so I picked Minnesota because they’re always in contention, even if nobody can figure out exactly how they do it. And here we are 71 games into the season and the Twins are 4 games behind the Tigers and you just know that come September they’ll be hanging around, ready to sneak into first place. And nobody will be able to explain how a team that gives quality minutes to Nick Punto and Delmon Young made the playoffs.
AL West: A’s — So far this looks like my worst pick. But you know what? The A’s are a second-half team. Anybody who’s read “Moneyball” knows that. And the AL West is ripe for the taking. So I’m not giving up on them yet. But I’m really, really close.
AL Wild Card: Red Sox — If Boston misses the playoffs, despite having seven above average starting pitchers, a resurgent Papi, a dominant bullpen and a limitless budget, it’ll be a major upset. Then again, the AL East is a ridicously tough division.

NL Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus — Looking like a good pick. Rasmus is heating up after a slow start and, more importantly, he doesn’t have any real competition.
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters — Too soon to say, but Wieters has the hype and has been heating up lately. He’s raised his average 100 points in the last week.

NL CY Young: Tim Lincecum — He’s as good a bet as anyone. Rob Neyer says, “Meanwhile, in the National League, Tim Lincecum’s making a serious bid to win his second straight award, though he too will have to cope with lousy run support from his mates. If that doesn’t work out, Chad Billingsley’s a solid candidate. And then there’s Dan Haren and Javier Vazquez, both enjoying brilliant seasons but with only nine wins between them.”
AL CY Young: Josh Beckett — Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander are the leaders, and Eric Bedard and Jered Weaver are good candidates, too. But Beckett, who was very unlucky in the first two months of the season, is on a roll now and can’t be counted out. He’s got the benefit of playing for a first place team that scores a lot of runs. Still a good pick.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols — I’m rooting for Chase Utley, but Pujols is the strong favorite. He’s such a beast.
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira — He’s second in the AL in HR, fourth in RBI, fifth in OPS, and he’s a notorious second-half player playing in the most home-run-friendly park in history. Again, not a lock. But still looking like a real strong pick.

All in all, I’d say my picks are holding up pretty well, with the exception of the A’s.

Yesterday, Umpbump posted our predictions for the 2009 season. Some of these picks were easier than others – for instance, all five of us chose the Cubs as NL Central champs, and four of us picked the A’s and Dodgers to win their respective divisions. A slim three-person majority also favored the Mets to win the NL East and the Indians to take the AL Central.

But some of these picks were downright tricky. The AL East appears to be a total toss-up between the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, and our picks reflect that (2 chose Boston, 2 Tampa Bay, and 1 New York).

Similarly, it was hard to choose an AL Rookie of the Year because at least three candidates – David Price, Matt Wieters, and Travis Snider – all have a legitimate shot at vying for it. Should these three fail to live up to expectations, Elvis Andrus and Austin Jackson are waiting in the wings to claim their hardware. Then there’s always the chance that one of the AL’s younger, high-ceiling prospects – Neftali Feliz? – could force himself onto the big-league club sooner than expected and surprise us all.

But it was hard to pick the NL Rookie for the opposite reason: none of the NL’s most exciting talents are big-league ready. Atlanta’s Jayson Heyward is only 19, and topped out at high-A last year. The Giants’ Madison Bumgardner isn’t slated to make it to the bigs until 2010 at the soonest. And the Mets’ Fernando Martinez has already been rushed, and New York won’t want to hurry him further. So who will it be? In the end, four of us settled for Cameron Maybin, who seemed to figure things out a bit last September, while the fifth chose Colby Rasmus, another valid choice. Beyond that, Jordan Schafer’s torrid spring won him Atlanta’s starting CF gig, while Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen has been returned to Triple A – but probably not for long. But by far the most fun rumor is that the Nats would draft Stephen Strasburg and immediately bring the college pitcher to the majors. According to BP’s Kevin Goldstein, “every scout thinks he’d be fine.”

So, while our AL ROY picks came down to politicking – who’ll get more votes for being on a contender, who’ll get penalized for being a pitcher, who’ll get more support for starting the season with the big-league club – the NL picks all come down to who steps up and does the best job. And when it comes to preseason predictions, there’s nothing more boring than “well, it depends…”

Who did we miss, Umpbumpers? What rookies and prospects are you most excited about? What are your picks? Let us know in the comments!

The Umpbump writers have looked into their crystal balls and are predicting who will win big in 2009. This will save you the trouble of actually having to watch the games.

See any picks that you consider ballsy, or boring? Wanna make your own predictions? As usual, we’ll hear from you in the comments.

Coley’s Picks:

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Cardinals

AL East: Rays
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters

NL CY Young: Tim Lincecum
AL CY Young: Josh Beckett

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira

Paul’s Picks:

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Dodgers

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider

NL CY Young: Tim Lincecum (IF Rich Harden doesn’t make 30 starts, which at this point should be a given)
AL CY Young: C.C. Sabathia

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Sarah’s Picks

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Phillies

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: David Price

NL CY Young: Johan Santana
AL CY Young: CC Sabathia

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Kevin Youkilis

Nick’s Picks

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Phillies

AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters

NL CY Young: Johan Santana
AL CY Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL MVP: Matt Holliday

Alejandro’s Picks:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Mets

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: David Price

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.

You might have seen Nick, Coley, and Sarah’s MVP picks already. If not, then you probably should. Because only then will you be able to appreciate how much better mine are.

Call me VORPy. I believe that “most valuable” means that you were the best in that year. I do not think it’s rational to expect great players to be able to turn turd-ish teammates into 30HR-threats. And I like pie.

So please keep all of these things in mind as I take my crack at my list of MVP-worthy players in the AL and NL. And if any hate mail results from this, I will not read it unless it is accompanied by a slice of pie.

American League

#4: Dustin Pedroia – I don’t know if I have a bias for or against Pedroia. For one, he’s a Red Sox which is a negative (ducking as Sarah justifiably takes a digital swing at my head across the vast world of the interwebs). On the other hand, he’s about my size and as such is totally relatable. Plus, as a former second baseman myself, I appreciate how deftly he handles the position. So I think those two irrational sides cancel each other out. What we’re left with is a guy tied for sixth in AL Win Shares and third in Runs Created despite the fact that he plays a skill position.

#3: Roy Halladay – In a year where no AL hitter distinctively separated himself from the pack, I think it’s only right to recognize what Halladay did. Although Cliff Lee beat him for the ERA and Wins titles, Halladay was right behind him. But what puts Doc over the top is how well he performed over so many innings. His 2.78 ERA is only fully appreciated when one considers the fact that Halladay threw 22.67 more innings than any other pitcher in the AL. That’s over three more games total than Lee who’s second on that list. I don’t know about you, but I like the idea of having a guy with such a low ERA pitching instead of a crappy bullpen. How’s that for value? It should also be mentioned that Halladay finished third in strikeouts, fifth in hits allowed per nine, third in walks per nine, and of course, racked up Complete Games.

#2: Joe Mauer – It’s not just that he has a “very pretty” OBP. He led the AL in Win Shares. I don’t know when was the last time a catcher accomplished this. And while it may be odd for an MVP-candidate to have less than 10 HRs, the man still slugged .451 playing half his games in the Metrodome, which was one of the worst places for hitters in 2008. And with his second batting title in three years, he’s now the first catcher in the American League history to win two of those. The first catcher to win one AL batting title was, of course, Joe Mauer in 2006. Plus, Mauer also led the league in WPA (Win Probability Added) and led all catchers in defensive Win Shares this year as well.

#1: Grady Sizemore – Is there anything this man can’t do well? Power (sixth in HRs), plate patience (third in walks), base stealing skills (38 SBs in 43 attempts), and defense (4th in Revized Zone Rating among CFers and second in Out of Zone plays made). Add it all up and you get just a great centerfielder who finished fourth in Win Shares and second in VORP, which doesn’t even counting his strong defensive contributions.

National League:

#4: Carlos Beltran – If you think that I did a top 4 instead of a top 3 just so that I can get Beltran on this list (say it with me in your best Ed McMahon voice!), you – are – co-rrrrect, sir!!! I’m actually beginning to worry about my propensity to blabber on about this guy. Despite his HR total being lower this year, he still hit well enough to finish in the top 10 in VORP, Runs Created, and extra-base hits. He was third in Win Shares and sixth in walks. And we haven’t even begun to talk about his baserunning skills and defense in center. Although he was only 7th in Revized Zone Rating among NL CFers, he more than makes up for it by easily making the most Out of Zone plays (seriously, it’s not even close).

#3: Lance Berkman – I think it’s odd how little attention has been paid to the Big Puma. Top-5 in BA, OBP, SLG, Runs Scored, Adjusted OPS, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits, and in doing all this also ended up with the most Win Shares in the National League. Played a great first base to boot. It’s really not his fault that Brad Ausmus OPSed BELOW .600. He was a player having a great season on a mediocre team.

#2: Hanley Ramirez – This one hurts. How could I possibly put Han-Ram over Beltran? He deserves it, that’s why. Offensively, Ramirez had a similar season as he did in 2007 – a bit better in OBP, a bit worse in SLG. Didn’t come all that close in SBs, but increased his homerun output. But what I appreciated most about him this year was how much better he had become defensively. His Revised Zone Rating improved dramatically from .773 to .840 (god-awful to very good), and was seventh in Out of Zone. Last year, the only knock I had on him was his defense. Now, I got nothing. He hit 33 HRs. No other shortstop in MLB came close (Hardy was second with 24). He OPSed .940. No other shortstop was even within .100 points of the guy. He’s undoubtedly the best SS in baseball.

#1: Albert Pujols – I know. Ho-hum. But no matter how contrarian I may want to be sometimes, there’s just no way I can deny Pujols this. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Quickly, before the playoffs start something like 10 hours, I thought I’d open up the floor for the regular season’s biggest surprises. To get the ball rolling, here are mine, in no particular order:

The (comparative) total suckage of the Cleveland Indians. Last year, they were one ALCS win away from heading to the World Series. Their manager was thought, in some quarters, to be a guru of the beard-wearing, mountaintop-cave-dwelling variety. This year, they finished 81-81, the very definition of mediocre. No one saw this coming. No one.

The sure hands of Ryan Braun. No, left field isn’t exactly shortstop, but even so: in 149 games, he made not a single error (hat tip to Brew Crew Ball). That’s after making 26 at third base last year in 112 games. His range factor and zone rating were both in the top five of qualified MLB left fielders, well ahead of, for instance, Jason Bay, who is touted for his defensive ability. After snubbing Braun with my ROY pick last year largely for his crappy defense, I was surprised but pleased to see the apparent turnaround. Dreamy Eyes, I salute you.

The worst-to-first season of the Tampa Bay Rays. I know, this one’s a gimme. It’s pretty obvious. But unlike most of the commentariat, I think we here at UmpBump actually weren’t that surprised by the Rays’ solid performance this year. (Unlike, say, this breathless cover at SI.) Even so, I don’t think any of us actually expected them to win the notoriously tough AL East this year.

The total badassery of Cliff Lee. Another obvious pick. Show me one writer who picked him to be the best pitcher in the AL this year. Show. Me. One.

The signing of Kenji Johjima. Even at the time, I had absolutely no idea why the Mariners made this deal. A 3-year extension for the subpar Johjima when their best prospect was also a catcher? No wonder the baseball world was blindsided. Now that he ended up OPSing just over .600 this year, the deal looks like the worst of 2008–and the hot-stove season hasn’t yet begun.

That’s all I got for now. (More coffee is clearly required.) What surprised y’all about this season? No surprise too big or too small!