Hot Offseason Action: Atlanta Braves
This is one of a series of posts in which we grade each team’s wily hot stove maneuvers and tragic offseason blunders.
Did Atlanta improve over the offseason? Yes. And no.
Atlanta’s biggest need entering the offseason was starting pitching. So GM Frank Wren went back to the future and signed Tom Glavine. Good move? No. Glavine is washed up. But at the very least, he should be an (overpaid) innings eater. Wren also traded all-star SS Edgar Renteria to Detroit for SP Jair Jurrjens. The Jurrjens acquisition could be a real long-term steal. But for 2008, Atlanta’s starting staff will depend on the continued strength of an aging John Smoltz and the hope that Mike Hampton will return to form after multiple arm surgeries. Some things never change.
But enough about pitching. Who needs pitching when you have offense? And the Braves do have offense. Atlanta scored more runs than every NL team but Philly and Colorado, two teams that play in hitter-friendly parks. That’s pretty impressive considering the Braves’ best hitter, Mark Teixeira, didn’t get to town until August.The 2008 Braves should benefit from a full season of Teixeira. The team lost power when Andruw Jones signed with the Dodgers, but they gained OBP when they signed Mark Kotsay.
In other Braves news, the Renteria-Jurrjens trade freed up a starting spot for SS Yunel Escobar, who represents a possible defensive upgrade, but a probable offensive step back.
Atlanta’s bullpen will suffer from the loss of Ron Mahay, but should be bolstered by the mid-season return of Mike Gonzalez.
Additions: Brandon Jones, Mark Kotsay (and Jamie Kotsay), Tom Glavine, Jair Jurrjens.
Losses: Edgar Renteria, Andruw Jones, Ron Mahay.
Projected Starters, Rotation, and Bullpen:
C - Brian McCann
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Kelly Johnson
SS - Yunel Escobar
3B - Chipper Jones
LF - Matt Diaz/Brandon Jones
CF - Mark Kotsay
RF - Jeff Francoeur
SP - John Smoltz
SP - Tim Hudson
SP - Tom Glavine
SP - Mike Hampton
SP - Jair Jurrjens/Jo-Jo Reyes/Chuck James/Jeff Bennett
Setup - Peter Moylan
Closer - Rafael Soriano
Offseason Grade: B
Atlanta has some exciting young players (Escobar, Jurrjens, Kelly Johnson) and some others who are entering their prime years (Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur, Teixeira), but as usual the team’s success will hinge on the contributions of some oft-injured players (Chipper, Hampton) and old timers (Smoltz, Glavine).
January 22nd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Off the top of my head, I have to say that I expect big things from Jeff Francouer this year. And that scares me a little. Aside from Kotsay, their lineup is the real deal.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Coley, I’m a little confused by your lineup. That’s just in rando order, right? You’re not putting the catcher batting leadoff and the shortstop hitting cleanup? I mean, I’m assuming.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Sarah, it’s not a batting order. There’s really no concensus about the Braves’ batting order for this season. I currently have the players listed by position: C, 1B, 2B, SS and so on.
AJC writer Dave O’Brien thinks the Braves’ lineup will look like this:
1. SS Yunel Escobar
2. CF Kotsay
3. 3B Chipper Jones
4. 1B Mark Teixeira
5. RF Jeff Francoeur/C Brian McCann
6. Francoeur/McCann
7. 2B Kelly Johnson
8. LF Matt Diaz/Brandon Jones
Or, he says it might look like this:
1. Escobar
2. Johnson
3. Chipper
4. Teixeira
5. Francoeur/McCann
6. Francoeur/McCann
7. Kotsay
8. Diaz/B. Jones.
Personally, I think the Braves should lineup like this:
1. Kotsay
2. Escobar
3. Chipper
4. Teixeira
5. Francoeur
6. McCann
7. Diaz/B. Jones
8. Johnson
But they won’t do that and nobody in the Braves organization cares what I think.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
For what it’s worth, computer projections have this as the optimal Braves lineup:
1. Escobar
2. Chipper
3. Johnson
4. Tex
5. Diaz
6. McCann
7. Francouer
8. Pitcher
9. Kotsay
This lineup is projected to score 5.701 runs per game. Not too shabby. Of course, no one will create this lineup in actuality.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Yeah, but the computer is treating Kotsay like the injured bum that he was in 2006 and 2007. I think he’s going to be a force in 2008. Atlanta is where players like Kotsay thrive, so that they can then sign big contracts with other teams and go right back to being hurt and crappy.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Coley is right, of course. Boston is where players come to suddenly suck for no visible reason.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Except, of course, for athletes who arrive here via Minnesota.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
exciting young players:
Escobar: 25
Jurrjens: 22
KJ: 26
Players entering Prime:
McCann: 24
Francoeur: 24
Teixeira: 28
Huh?
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January 22nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Also,
Mark Kotsay’s career line
.282/.337/.415
Kotsay’s best year
.314/.370/.459
OPS that year: 116
KJ in first full season
.276/.375/.457
OPS last year:117
Career Minor league stats:
.281/.364/.464
Although lineup order is probably a little overrated, why in the world should Kotsay hit at the top with Kelly at the bottom?
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January 22nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Crap!
OPS is supposed to be OPS(plus). Sorry.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Coley, what makes you think that this year’s Kotsay is going to be that much better? I mean, he is coming off back surgery. It’s not exactly a sure thing. Besides, Kotsay never was a very patient hitter.
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January 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I think Kotsay’s numbers will get a boost from hitting in the NL. Also, I just have a hunch. It’s an intangible feeling. You can’t quantify it, you sabermetric basement-dwelling dweebs.
Also, it’s been a crazy day at work, so I didn’t have time to look up Kotsay’s numbers, let alone KJ’s numbers. Get off my back.
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January 23rd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
I think (I’m) Chuck James (b*tch!!!) will get the 4th spot in the rotation if he has a decent spring. Even though he was shaky down the stretch, there were flashes of brilliance last year. Cox stuck with him through thick and thin, so I’ll bet it is his spot to lose. Mike Hampton is more likely to be competing with Jo-Jo “Yes, we went over this already, it really is my name” Reyes and Jair Jurrjens for the 5th spot.
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January 24th, 2008 at 1:50 am
Well, it would seem like Chuck James is the incumbent, but I heard that he has a torn rotator cuff. He is going to try to “strengthen the shoulder” with exercise and “pitch through it” like so many guys have done, but that never really works. The only guy who was able to pitch with any effectiveness over any amount of time with a torn rotator cuff that I can think of was Pedro Martinez, and even he lost about 12 mph off his heater, and even he eventually had to have the surgery. I think James is going to be a non-factor til he gets that tear fixed surgically.
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January 24th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Thanks for the info, Nick! Apparently I am out of the loop.
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