Johan Santana’s best days are behind him (and other wishful thinking from a Phillies fan).
If you’re a fan of the New York Mets, you’re probably pretty excited about the team’s trade for Johan Santana. This is a big day for you. Enjoy it.If you’re a fan of one of the other NL East teams, particularly the Braves or Phillies, you’re probably pretty bummed that one of your rivals just landed a two-time Cy Young winner. But allow me to throw a little sunshine down on this seemingly dark news.There are a number of ways that the Johan Santana trade could mean more bad than good for Mets fans. Let’s count them:
1. Santana, after signing a seven-year $140 million extension, could get hurt. Moreover, he may already be hurt. The Twins’ ace didn’t have his usual stuff down the stretch in 2007. That could be indicative of an injury. But don’t take my word for it. Here’s what Buster Olney had to say about Santana’s 2007 finish:
I talked with evaluators and scouts with three other teams since then, and they all saw the exact same thing in Santana: diminishment in velocity, relatively few sliders thrown, subpar (for Santana) performances. But two of the three believe the regression could be attributed to the Twins not being in the race, Minnesota not playing in a high-adrenalin situation, and Santana coping with a cracked nail. The third evaluator wonders, too, if Santana is OK. “If a deal is made, you could see there would be a complete physical, given the money involved,” said the evaluator.
So, there’s that to look forward to — the possibility that Santana could be in line for a major surgery. Oh, if wishing made it so!
2. Santana eats his way out of town. Can’t you just see it? He works hard all his life to finally land that fat contract. After he gets the contract, he relaxes…and gets fat. It’s happened to so many ballplayers: Fernando Valenzuela, Curt Schilling, El Guapo…the list goes on and on. Have you seen Pedro Martinez lately? That guy looks like he landed a Krispy Kreme endorsement. If Johan starts eating meals with Pedro, watch out. Before you know it, Santana will be wearing a mumu and won’t be able to fit in any of the seats on the team’s private jet.
3. Santana pulls a David Beckham, invents a mysterious, nagging injury, and then dedicates himself to embracing his status as a gay icon by spending all his time going to fabulous parties and modeling underwear. What’s that you say? You didn’t know Santana was a gay icon? Well, he’s a Met, isn’t he?
January 30th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Awww that’s so cute, like a little kid wishing Santa Claus would bring him the toys he wanted. Keep on wishing, you’ll need your imagination to keep you company come playoff time when you are where Phillies fans are used to being…watching the Eagles.
[Report comment]
January 30th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
RK, as a Mets fan you get to enjoy the Santana signing. But I’m pretty sure you don’t get to talk shit. Not yet. Not after your team’s history making collapse last season. Getting Santana is a big deal, to be sure. But it doesn’t change the fact that my team made the playoffs last season and yours didn’t.
[Report comment]
January 30th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Oh, snap!
[Report comment]
January 30th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Salted!
[Report comment]
January 31st, 2008 at 6:19 pm
If this deal makes the Mets “the team to beat” in the NL East, it only makes them slightly so. After Santana, their rotation is still questionable. And I think Cole Hamels will give Santana a run for his money for the NL Cy Young award.
I’ll take the Phillies’ offense over the Mets’, the Phillies’ defense, and the Phillies’ bench. The Mets have better overall pitching.
With the Phillies, Mets, and Braves all expecting a run at the division title, it may take just 88 or 89 wins again as it did last season.
Good news for the Phillies: if Santana starts Opening Day, the Phillies will miss him in the first series in Queens! :)
[Report comment]
January 31st, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Bill, if the Mets rotation after Santana is questionable, I don’t think the Phillies could be called “reliable.” Kendrick. Eaton. Moyer. Yikes.
[Report comment]
February 1st, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Mets (2007 ERA plus):
Santana (130)
Martinez (166)
Maine (109)
Perez (120)
Hernandez (115)
Phils (2007 ERA plus)
Hamels (136)
Myers (107)
Kendrick (119)
Moyer (92)
Eaton (73)
You COULD (I’d disagree, but I wouldn’t think you’re crazy) make the argument that Hamels and Myers combined will produce better numbers than Johan/Pedro. But the latter half of the rotation isn’t even close.
Whereas if you consider park factor the Mets lineup put up numbers that were just as good as Philly. In 2007 the Mets scored 5 fewer runs than Philadelphia away from their home parks. If you use OPS plus, the Mets come out slightly ahead.
Defensively, the Phils are better around the horn. I still think Reyes is better at short than Rollins, but Feliz is superior to Wright, and Utley vs. Castillo probably isn’t much of a comparison. Delgado/Howard is a wash. But I’ll take the Mets outfield over the Phils. Both Alou and Burrell may be useless, but Beltran/Church is better than Victorino/Jenkins.
[Report comment]