It’s been widely reported that the Nationals might make a run at free agent IB Mark Teixiera, but here’s a little something that Buster Olney threw out at the bottom of his latest column (Insider required):

Each offseason move impacts others that will follow, but with that in mind, here’s a guesstimate as to where the top free agents will land:

Sabathia: Yankees

Teixeira: Angels

Burnett: Yankees

Manny Ramirez: Nationals

Manny to the Nationals? I know this is just speculation on Olney’s part, but oh dear God please let it come to pass. Talk about a punishment fitting the crime. If Manny is destined to get a big contract, at least let him land somewhere where the pitching is thin and the smog is thick. I don’t want to see that traitor playing in October ever again.

Detroit had a good offense this year — they were fourth in runs scored, second in homers, and third in OPS. But they were in the bottom five in the league in pretty much every pitching category — runs allowed, opponents’ batting average, strikeouts, ERA, walks. They were also in the bottom five in defensive efficiency and fielding percentage.

So the Tigers actually have two problems: their pitchers are clogging up the basepaths with walks and hits, but their fielders are exacerbating the problem by not getting to balls in play, and mishandling them when they do.

Oof.

Irritatingly, the Tigers thought they fixed this problem last offseason, when they sent Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria — this was designed to let them move creaky Carlos Guillen out of shortstop, thus upgrading their defense, while also providing a boost to their offense. They followed this up with a move designed to upgrade both their offense and their pitching, sending six prospects to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The six? Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Mike Rabelo, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Dallas Trahern. Eight prospects dealt and not even a playoff berth to show for it. Not even close.

One problem? The Tigers took back with one hand what they gave with the other; yes, moving Carlos Guillen was vital. But no sooner had they upgraded their defense there, than they acquired Cabrera, whose terrible defense presented manager Jim Leyland with but one of many headaches: where do you put Guillen and Cabrera on the same infield?

And to add insult to injury, Jurrjens finished the year with a totally respectable 3.68 ERA in 31 starts and 188 and a third innings. The Tigers would have felt lucky to have such a performance from Dontrelle Willis, who went a grand total of 24 innings and finished the year with an ERA of 9.38. Ouchie.

So now, unfortunately, the Tigers find themselves right back in the same position they found themselves in at the end of last season — except this time, their farm system is depleted and their veterans are another year older. What to do now?

Well, they could use a catcher. A couple of starting pitchers. A shortstop. And pretty much an entire bullpen. No biggie, right?

The Tigers can choose to trade their remaining prospects and hope their veterans bounce back. If that happens — especially if they can get the pitching they need — they could make a run at a playoff spot in 2009. A Rafael Furcal here…a Miguel Montero there…maybe a Trevor Hoffman or Brandon Lyon or Darren Oliver over there…it could happen.

But I think they’re better off looking towards 2011. Trade Magglio Ordonez. Dump salary. Hold a fire sale and pick up as many prospects as possible.

The best time to do that may not be now — I could see Ordonez actually commanding a higher price at the July deadline. And who knows? If they take a wait-and-see approach and things click in the first couple of months of the season, the Tigers could decide to keep Maggs and make a run. But to do that, they’ll need to get creative and find cheap ways to plug their (many) holes now.

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The Boston Globe has launched “an upstart weekly publication” called “OT - Our Town. Our Teams.” The paper version is 50 cents, and it also appears online at Boston.com.

Readers, it’s a blog. It’s a blog that happens to be printed every week in dead-tree format. It’s published online in the same single-column format that UmpBump and countless other blogs are published in. And while countless other blogs might write the following screed, countless other blogs would be doing it because they, of course, are actual baseball writers’ wives who sit in their pajamas in mom’s basement all day making sh*t up. Or, they’re me, and they’re just really sick of Julio Lugo’s 18 errors and 27 strikeouts per game and have to let off some way over-the-top steam.

But theoretically, Chad Finn is more informed than Murray Chass’s wife and actually meant it when he wrote this about about Jason Varitek — either that, or it’s just the fledgling site’s attempt to get comments and incoming links. Some excerpts:

“Recent events suggest he’s teetering on becoming one of the most vile subspecies of professional athletes: an aging, subpar performer who demands the salary and security of a prime-of-career star.”

That’s just factually incorrect. The most vile subspecies of pro athletes are the ones in their prime who have everything going for them and who don’t play hard or who blame their teammates for losses. Other key subspecies: the ones who beat their wives, rape hotel clerks, get arrested for torturing dogs, or unlawfully discharge firearms in strip clubs.

“Scott Sauerbeck. Chad Bradford. Jeff Suppan. Byung-Hyun Kim. Ramiro Mendoza. Bobby Howry. Matt Clement. Wade Miller. The point isThe Red Sox had enough pitchers who failed miserably here in recent years to fill every staff in the Can-Am League. If Varitek is going to get heaps of praise for the successes, shouldn’t he accept some measure of fault for the failures? Funny how no one ever mentions he caught 13 of Clay Buchholz’s 15 starts this season.”

The Buck’s problem is that he suddenly couldn’t locate his fastball. That’s the first rule of pitching, and I fail to see how Tek can help him there. In start after start, we watched Buchholz try to establish his fastball, only to fall behind in the count when he couldn’t put it over the plate. His breaking stuff was still nasty, but without the fastball, pitchers had no incentive to swing at it.

Varitek is tied for most no-hitters caught, and would have the record if Curt Schilling had listened to him with two out in the bottom of the ninth in 2007. Are we really going to blame him for Matt Clement, who had to have season-ending shoulder surgery? Most of the pitchers on that list are Dan Duquette “bargains” — and for those of you who weren’t living in the baseball Guantanamo that was Boston during the Dan Duquette years, Dan Duquette’s idea of a bargain is sort of like my boyfriend’s. “Hey, this is cheap! Let’s take it. Maybe we can use it. Yeah, it’s kind of broken…maybe a little smelly. And I’m not sure exactly what it is. But it’s just so cheap! How can you say no?!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Am I reading this right?

The New York Yankees have acquired center fielder-first baseman Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox, baseball sources tell ESPN.com.

Minor league pitcher Jeff Marquez is headed to Chicago in the deal, the source said. It’s uncertain if any other players are involved.

If I were to create a list of bounceback candidates in 2009, Swisher’s name would be among the top. Despite a line drive rate topping 20% for the first time in his career, his BABIP plummeted to .249, by far a career-low. His Isolated Power was around his career norm, and he was as patient as ever at the plate. As long as he is healthy in 2009, Nick Swisher is about as good a bet to bounce back as anyone out there.

But the White Sox dealt him for Jeff Marquez, a 24-year old righty who had a 4.69 ERA with 33Ks and 24BBs in 80 2/3 innings at AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre and whose upside is probably as a long reliever.

What am I missing here?

Updated

To label the New York Yankees 2008 season as a disappointment might be an understatement. This is the team that year after year has been a staple in the playoffs, and that in a not-too-distant past (though it fades ever so slowly from memory) were the very definition of a dynasty.

Reverting to their winning ways will not be an easy task; GM Brian Cashman has to deal with an aging staff, and has to plug holes in the outfield, first base, and rotation.

Cashman will have to shell out the cash. Har har… har…

On the surface, the most important need for the Yankees this offseason is to bolster their lineup. During the last four seasons, the Yankees either lead or were second in home runs in the American League, relegating to fourth place in 2008; and even though they were third in team OBP, they were seventh in both runs scored and RBI. In 2007, the Yankees led all three of those offensive categories.

Rumors have been flying around the possibility of signing Mark Teixeira, which would add a potent bat to the lineup and replace a departing Jason Giambi, but the the price tag for Tex will prove to be pricey (not that the Yankees couldn’t afford it). Worth noting is Hideki Matsui’s knees, both of which have now been surgically repaired, possibly limiting his defensive abilities in the outfield.

Will the Yanks sign Tex?

So yeah, offense is a big one, on the other hand, beefing the rotation also looms as a critical issue to be addressed if the Yanks are to return to the post season. Team officials have confirmed that they’ll pursue C.C. Sabathia, who’ll definitely command Johan Santana money (again, not that the Yankees couldn’t afford him), but other questions regarding their rotation circle around the future of veterans Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina.

Pettitte has already filed for free-agency, and it’s unclear whether he’ll sign elsewhere, opt to retire, or stay in New York. Pettitte himself has told the press that he’d like to pitch in fancy new Yankee stadium, and he may get a one-year deal worth around $11 million. Mussina is mulling retirement (even though he was, by far, the Yanks best pitcher in ‘08, winning 20 games for the first time in his career), and Cashman said during the GM meetings that the 40-year-old is an option they’re considering.

According to Cashman, only Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain have guaranteed spots in the rotation, and considering pitching is one of the Yankee needs this offseason, it makes sense to bring back both pitchers – especially after disappointing seasons from Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

The Yankees are never a team to stay pat in regards to the hot stove, so don’t be surprised if a they land a couple of big fish via trade or free agency.

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Update #2: You want your update? I got yer update righteer.

Update/note: This post was ready to go in the morning, and was scheduled for today, but in light of the news that the Yankees have acquired Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox (oh Kenny Williams, how do you do it?) we’ll post an update soon.

The Braves felt pretty good about their chances entering 2008. They weren’t the only ones. I picked Atlanta to win the NL East. Hey, why not? They had Chipper Jones, who was coming off a huge year. They had the ageless John Smoltz and the resurgent Tim Hudson. They had a pair of promising, young middle infielders in Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. They had Mark Teixeira, who was in a contract year.

Outside of a few bullpen questions, it seemed like a recipe for success.

Of course, through a combination of injury and extreme suckage, the Braves finished fourth. And my prediction looked a little silly.

In 2009, my hopes for the Braves aren’t nearly so high. But that doesn’t mean that Atlanta has given up on the season. Quite the contrary. Braves GM Frank Wren is trying to pull off a mega deal for Padres ace Jake Peavy. And he’s talking about landing a couple of big time free agents this offseason. Maybe Derrek Lowe, or AJ Burnett or Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez.

But even if Atlanta does succeed in acquiring two bonafide top of the rotation starters, the team still has some major questions, such as:

• Will John Smoltz be able to pitch in 2009?
• If so, will he pitch as a starter or a reliever?
• Will Tom Glavine return?
• Who will play left field?
• Can Jeff Francoeur rebound from a truly craptastic 2008?
• Can Wren improve the Braves’ bullpen?
• If the Braves trade Yunel Escobar as part of a package to get Peavy, who will play shortstop?

One thing is for sure: Tim Hudson won’t be pitching in 2009, after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Maybe it’s me, but I think Atlanta needs too much to go right in order to be competitive in 2009. Shooting for 2010, when Hudson is back in the rotation, seems like a much more reasonable goal. But even that is a stretch. Let’s say this winter Atlanta signs Lowe and Burnett. Then they’ll be looking at a 2010 rotation of Hudson, Lowe, Burnett, highly regarded prospect Tommy Hanson and either Jo Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton Jair Jurrjens. And who knows, maybe Smoltz will still be pitching? Never bet against him.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that, barring any major moves, Atlanta’s 2010 outfield will be led by Francoeur, who had a .294 OBP in 2008, Jordan Schafer, who will presumably be entering his first full year in the bigs, and a left fielder to be named later. Chipper Jones might be around, but he might not. He’s a free agent after this season.

In 2008, Atlanta was 14th out of 16 NL teams in home runs. That number doesn’t stand to improve this season, especially with Casey Kotchman manning first base in place of Mark Teixeira. Will it improve by 2010? Not without a significant shuffling of the deck, especially if Chipper departs.

Also in 2008, Atlanta gave up the fifth most runs in the NL. That could improve in 2009 if the team signs a couple of starters. But the loss of Hudson (and maybe Smoltz) could minimize the impact that any free agent pitchers make.

Here’s the problem as I see it: the Braves have enough money to add two impact players. But they need more than that. Even if the goal is 2010 and you assume that Schaeffer and Hanson will show up ready to play, you’re still talking about a team that has no real option in left field (last year the Braves left fielders were worth -34 runs), a right fielder who barely hits his weight, and a shoddy bullpen.

Conclusion: The Braves have little hope to compete in 2009, even if they sign two top starters. 2010 is more realistic, but only slightly. If it were me, I’d rebuild the team. But it’s clear Wren isn’t ready to go that route. Not yet. So he should sign a couple arms and cross his fingers that Chipper stays healthy, Hudson comes back strong from surgery, Smoltz is able to pitch again, Francoeur remembers how to hit and learns how to take a walk, Hanson and Schaeffer realize their potential, and McCann, Escobar and Johnson stay healthy.

It’s a lot to hope for.

UPDATE: Even though both sides continue to downplay the rumors, it seems likely that Atlanta will trade for Jake Peavy. And if they land Peavy, Fox’s Ken Rosenthal (via MLB Trade Rumors) says the Braves would turn their attention to former Brave Rafael Furcal. Furcal is a legit MVP candidate and adding him would be huge. But which is better, signing Lowe and Burnett and keeping Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton and Blaine Boyer, or trading those guys for Peavy and signing Furcal? I’m not sure.

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On Monday, we wrote a post upon noticing that Edinson Volquez finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting despite the fact that he’s not a rookie. And we challenged our readers to “out” those three BBWAA members who didn’t bother to actually inform themselves of this fact.

But before anyone could report back, Keith Law has figured it out over at his personal blog (which, if you like to read novels and/or cook, is a very good place to go).

The three voters who included Volquez were Jeremy Cothran of the Newark Star-Ledger, John Klima of the Los Angeles Daily News, and Jay Paris of the North County Times in San Diego.

So there you go, fair readers.

The Cubs scored more runs than any NL team in 2008, and they gave up fewer runs than any team other than the Dodgers. That’s a recipe for success.

Moreover, it’s not likely that the 2009 Cubs will look much different from the 2008 Cubs. All of the team’s major players are set to return, with the exception of the following free agents:

• SP Ryan Dempster
• CL Kerry Wood
• OF Jim Edmonds

Edwards Edmonds’ emergance as a dependable regular last year was gravy for Chicago, who picked him up after San Diego cut him. He won’t be back.

Wood has been a Cub his entire career, but if he departs Chicago has several capable replacements lined up, most notably Carlos Marmol.

Dempster is the key. He won 17 games in 2008, posted a sub-3.00 ERA and he’s an important part of Chicago’s rotation. All indications are that Dempster wants to stay with the Cubs, but it’s unlikely he’ll give the organization much of a discount. He’s 31. This might be his one chance to cash in and he’s not going to blow it.

Even if the Cubs lose Dempster, they’ll still have Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Rich Hill Ted Lilly at the top of their rotation. And that ain’t bad. With Dempster and a healthy Harden, I just don’t see any team competing with Chicago.

Outside of pitching, the only position the Cubs will need to address this offseason is right field. Cubs manager Lou Piniella says the Cubs will move RF Kosuke Fukudome to center field to platoon with Reed Johnson. Fukudome played well over the season’s first three months, hitting .296/.404/.430, but he fell to just .207/.297/.313 the rest of the way. He saved four bases compared to the average right fielder. Moving Fukudome to center will make his lackluster offense more palatable. And it will open up a whole in right field that the team can fill with somebody who can hit. Bobby Abreu has been a popular rumor.

Cubs fans are no doubt a little down on their team after it’s postseason implosion. But I’m a Phillies fan and take it from me: October is a crapshoot. Last year, the Phils got swept by a very mediocre Rockies team that just happened to be on a mission from God. This year, the Phillies brought a very similar team to the playoffs and went the distance.

Chicago can make a similar turnaround. If they make just a few tweaks, like signing Bobby Abreu and bringing back Dempster, they’ll be favorites to win it all.

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Here’s a note I found at the bottom of a Philly.com gossip column:

Twelve-time all-star and Norristown native Mike Piazza is writing a memoir that Simon & Schuster plans to publish in 2010.

The slugging catcher, recently retired, said in a statement, “I look forward to having the chance to take people behind the scenes and to talk about the many great people and characters I’ve played with and for.”

Umpbump’s Paul Moro ordered his copy of the book in advance. He’s a fan. And he’s no doubt hoping for a chapter on Piazza’s trend-setting facial hair.

If I could tuuuuurn back tii-iime….if I could fiiiiind a waaay!

If I, or Theo Epstein, could turn back time and find a way, there is no doubt what we would do: make Jason Varitek younger. Specifically, age 31, the year he hit 25 homers or age 32, the year he OBP’ed .390. Sure, maybe some hoary wisdom would be lost — but think of all the offense that would be gained!

Similarly, if David Ortiz could go back to being 27, the Red Sox could expect five consecutive 30+ homer seasons from him (including two 40+ homer seasons and one 50+ homer season).

But, if time cannot be turned back, no matter how many sailors on that air-craft carrier wish it could be, the Red Sox will just have to try something else. Hence, operating under the assumption that those MIT researchers won’t find a way to magically re-youngify Tek and Papi, the Red Sox are looking for some replacement parts. Here’s how they should prioritize:

1. A good bat. Look, it’s only money. And the Red Sox have big fat gobs of it. Kevin Youkilis can play third base, if you want to stick Mark Teixeira (or Prince Fielder) at first. In my view, it’s even better if this extra bat is…

2. A young catcher. If you can get a young catcher with a good bat, you can hit two birds with one stone. But I don’t know that there’s a catcher available who could deliver the kind of bat the Red Sox need; names floating around out there are Taylor Teagarden and Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the Rangers (or perhaps Gerald Laird, if the Red Sox land Teixeira).  Ideally, the new guy would be defensively savvy enough (Teagarden! Teagarden!) to get the hang of Wakefield’s knuckler, since the Sox have already re-upped him and since Varitek hates to catch him. Let Tek be the backup and pass on the hoary w. to the new kid. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Red Sox deal some of their sa-weet young pitching prospects to land a catcher they were truly excited about. They’ve been saving up their pitching prospects for years, and are now loaded with them. Which brings me to my next item….

3. Make Justin Masterson a starter again. Yes, he was pretty good as a reliever. But he was also great as a starter. I’ve never seen a satisfactory explanation for why they moved him to the bullpen than, “Mike Timlin just got really old.” A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, and Masterson — with Buchholz or Bowden in the mix as well — sounds good to me. Besides, how hard is it really to pick up a random assortment of cheap relievers and let the bullpen sort itself out? A very few pitchers aside, this is pretty much how it seems to end up working every year, anyway.

The first two items above are essential — the third, just my personal preference. (And yes, in a perfect world, the Red Sox would find someone to take Julio Lugo off their hands, too.)

If the Red Sox can snag themselves a young bat and a young catcher, they’ll be well on their way to turning back time. And not in a scary hyperbaric chamber and/or bodystocking sort of way, either.

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