Obviously, the Phillies are no fluke. And it’s temping to suggest that they should stand pat this offseason. After all, all the team’s best players are under contract for next season, and the rotation figures to be strong, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer returning, and minor league prospect Kyle Drabek waiting for a chance at the big time.

But, as Rob Neyer says, “Baseball teams are like sharks: If they’re not moving forward, they’re dying.” The Phillies and GM Ruben Amaro seem to understand this. After all, Amaro’s big move last winter was signing Raul Ibanez and letting Pat Burrell walk. Is there any doubt that swapping Burrell for Ibanez was the difference between the Phils winning the east and sitting at home in October? Ibanez was worth 4.2 wins above replacement in 2009, while Burrell was worth -0.6, and would have been worth even less if the Rays had allowed him to play left field.

This offseason, the Phils have already made waves by cutting ties with SP/RP Brett Myers (due to excess douchiness) and announcing that they are looking to upgrade at third base.

Do the Phillies need to upgrade at 3B? No. Pedro Feliz’s outstanding defense makes him a valuable guy. But the Phils’ front office apparently can no longer stomach his craptastic hitting, and that’s understandable. So what are the options?

From MLB Trade Rumors:

There are several third base options on the free agent market that could pique Amaro’s interest. Both Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins would represent a significant offensive upgrade at the position, and according to UZR/150, they’d even provide a defensive boost over Feliz’s already sterling glovework.

Figgins would be a great addition to the Phils, as he would add even more speed to the lineup and could supplant Jimmy Rollins as the team’s leadoff hitter. And whether or not Figgins comes to Philly, the Fightins need a new leadoff hitter. It is no longer tenable to allow a guy with a sub-.300 OBP to leadoff.

Beltre would likely provide a more cost-effective solution at third, as he is coming off an injury plagued 2009. But while Beltre would bring more power, he’d be another OBP-suck (though not as bad as Feliz or Rollins), while Figgins OBP has steadily improved each of the past few seasons.

Outside of 3B, the Phils need to figure out Brad Lidge and the rest of the bullpen. Neyer put this pretty succinctly in a recent post:

The Phillies won 93 games this year. Brad Lidge blew 11 saves and lost eight games. The key ingredient in another 93-win recipe is a closer who instead blows five saves and loses four games. Those guys are out there, and they don’t all cost a great deal of money. Ruben Amaro isn’t likely to get super-creative this winter; general managers of pennant-winning teams rarely do. But he just has to be creative enough to find a couple of dependable relief pitchers. Which is one of the easiest things in professional sports.

Conclusion: Figgins would be a great addition, but will likely cost too much. If the Phils don’t land him they should sign Beltre or bring back Feliz, and turn their attention to improving the bullpen and adding a couple of decent bench players (Eric Bruntlett, you are the weakest link). And they should shift Shane Victorino into the leadoff spot and bat Rollins second. Or ninth. Whatever.

What They Need Index

Here we go again. Time for another edition of our semi-annual “What They Need” series, where we play GM for all 30 teams. As usual, we’ll be suggesting subtle tweaks for some squads, and major overhalls for others. There’s already movement going on in the Hot Stove front, so there’s no time to waste!

Here’s a helpful tip: this post will serve as an index for the series, so you may want to bookmark it.

On to the posts!

November 19 — Florida Marlins

November 16 – Minnesota Twins

November 16 – Los Angeles Dodgers

November 15 – Boston Red Sox

November 14 – Seattle Mariners

November 12 – Atlanta Braves

November 10 – New York Yankees

November 9 – San Francisco Giants

November 8 – Philadelphia Phillies

After a fantastic honeymoon in Fiji, where we were cut off from television, internet, and all other forms of media other than the Fiji Times (which doesn’t publish baseball standings), the blushing bride and I returned stateside yesterday. We landed at LAX around 4 p.m. to discover 1. The Phillies were still alive! 2. They were scheduled to play the Dodgers in the NLCS and the first game was to start in an hour! 3. We’d miss the first half of the game traveling from L.A. to Tucson!

What to do? Our flight was oversold, so we volunteered to take the next flight. That gave us time to watch the game in the airport bar, and we scored free roundtrip flight vouchers to boot.

You might be wondering, “what kind of a baseball fan schedules his honeymoon during the playoffs?” But consider: 1. The last thing anybody wants to do after surviving his or her wedding is return to work on Monday. 2. Going to Fiji in the spring and missing the annual spring training baseball weekend with the guys was not an option. (Neither was missing the holidays.) 3. Jimmy Rollins has already predicted a Phillies-Yankees World Series, so I knew the Phils would still be alive when I returned.

Anyways, I’m back. But being away from baseball for over a week and then returning in the middle of October is a bit of a weird experience. Here are some observations from a guy who is jumping into the 2009 playoffs midstream:

1. I can’t believe that in the 1.5 weeks I was gone, the Phils’ bullpen situation seems to have actually gotten murkier. Which is not to say it’s gotten worse. Just less certain. Last postseason, the Phils went almost exclusively with a bullpen rotation of Romero, Madson, Lidge. This postseason Manuel is just making it up as he goes along. He is really grasping at straws, and his lack of a plan is making all us Philly fans a little edgy.

2. When was the last time Manny got a haircut? Did Joe Torre just stop caring about that?

3. What is up with the east coast? Did you guys even have a summer this year? It’s snowing today in Boston and the weather forecast for the Yankees-Angels series is horrid. Is this a global warming thing or what?

4. Vicente Padilla really is an asshole. Don’t you think?

5. When I said that Suz and I got to watch the Phillies-Dodgers game in the airport, I meant we got to watch all but the final three outs. We had to board the plane before the game ended. Never in my wildest dreams did I think that a nine inning game played between two teams not named the Red Sox or Yankees could last more than four hours. But this game started at 5:07 and was still going when we boarded our plane at 9:20. I know it didn’t help that Manuel used pretty much his entire bullpen. But it really doesn’t help that commercial breaks during the playoffs are twice as long as those during the regular season. Can we do something about this?

6. Chase Utley is in a funk. He’s made two throwing errors in two games and he hasn’t had an extra-basehit in the NLCS. Granted, it’s only two games. But he’s got this look on his face like something isn’t right. With any other player, I’d chalk it up to a slump or nerves. But with Utley, anytime he’s not playing well I worry he’s hurt. Because, frankly, he almost never struggles and when he does we almost always find out after the fact that he was playing with a broken this or a torn that. It’s a tribute to Utley that we worry for his health whenever he turns in anything less than a Hall of Fame performance.

7. So let me get this straight: While I was gone there was a kid in a balloon and for a whole day people stopped what they were doing to watch this kid float away, only to find out later the kid wasn’t actually in the balloon but was instead hiding in the attic? And we still don’t have healthcare reform? And Rush Limbaugh can’t buy a portion of an NFL team, but he can judge the Miss America pageant? Is that everything? Am I caught up?

8. I bet the Red Sox faithful really wishes Theo would have shelled out the cash for Teixeira. His decision to sign with New York could haunt Boston for years to come. This winter, the pressure to sign Matt Holliday is going to be enormous. Sarah is already starting to obsess over him. And not just because she thinks he’s hot.

9. Tsunami warnings make me glad to live in the desert.

Every season, weird stuff happens. And this season is no exception.

Some of these mysteries are easily solved. Barry Zito, for example, was 2008’s biggest train wreck. Now he’s back, with his best FIP in four seasons, and his best K/9 since 2002. How’s he doing it? Turns out, he learned a slider.

Then there’s the formerly soft hitting Ben Zobrist, who is now a prolific slugger. What’s up with him? Turns out he took some lessons from a hitting guru.

Some mysteries are harder to crack. Here are a few of 2009’s unsolved mysteries. Can you solve them?

How is old man Ibanez this good? You don’t go from a .479 slugging to .716 at the age of 37. It simply isn’t done. What’s going on here?

How does Willy Taveras still have a job? He’s fast. I get that. But outside of his injury-shortened 2007, when he was 29 and at his peak, he’s never been as good as a replacement level center fielder. Now he’s 31 and declining and his OBP is .297.

What happened to Orlando Cabrera’s glove? Last year, his Ultimate Zone Rating was 14. So far this season it’s -7.6. That’s a drastic drop off. According to Fangraphs, Cabrera was worth $15.6MM in both 2008 and 2007. So far this season, he’s cost his team $3.3MM. It’s normal for a player’s range to diminish with age, but not this fast.

When did Marco Scutaro learn how to hit? Not only is the Blue Jays SS hitting for more power and better average, but his plate discipline is also much improved. In 2008 he walked 57 times. So far this season, he’s walked 56 times. That kind of patience is usually not learned over the course of an offseason.

Who are these Mets? Seriously, I’ve never heard of any of them. Argenis Reyes? Pat Misch? Where did they come from? You’re making Paul cry.

Has Billy Beane lost “it”? The A’s have been “rebuilding” for three years now and even with the acquisitions of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, this team looks to be getting worse.

What happened to Milton Bradley’s power? His isolated power currently stands at .138, which is his lowest mark since 2001 and is a full .1 lower than either of his last two seasons.

How is Brandon Inge doing this? We have no idea. But the Tigers 3B is on pace to hit 39 HRs with a .360 OBP (both would tower over his previous highs) while playing brilliantly on defense.

Why is Emilio Bonifacio still playing? Clearly, he has Marlins Manager Fredi Gonzalez’s mother tied up in his basement. That’s the only explanation.

What unsolved mysteries are you working on?

The Umpbump writers have looked into their crystal balls and are predicting who will win big in 2009. This will save you the trouble of actually having to watch the games.

See any picks that you consider ballsy, or boring? Wanna make your own predictions? As usual, we’ll hear from you in the comments.

Coley’s Picks:

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Cardinals

AL East: Rays
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters

NL CY Young: Tim Lincecum
AL CY Young: Josh Beckett

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira

Paul’s Picks:

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Dodgers

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider

NL CY Young: Tim Lincecum (IF Rich Harden doesn’t make 30 starts, which at this point should be a given)
AL CY Young: C.C. Sabathia

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Sarah’s Picks

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Phillies

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: David Price

NL CY Young: Johan Santana
AL CY Young: CC Sabathia

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Kevin Youkilis

Nick’s Picks

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Phillies

AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: A’s
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters

NL CY Young: Johan Santana
AL CY Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL MVP: Matt Holliday

Alejandro’s Picks:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Mets

NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Rookie of the Year: David Price

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira

It took two months, but we finally wrapped up our Hot Offseason Action series. The team with the best grade? The Tampa Bay Rays, who signed Pat “The Bat” Burrell to a bargain basement contract and traded for potential future star Matt Joyce. The Yankees also got some props for their extravagant offseason, bringing in Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. That ain’t bad.

The Astros, Royals and Blue Jays all got panned for their offseasons of outrageousness. The ‘Stros continue to delude themselves, thinking they’ll content despite an aging roster and a shortage of pitching. The Royals continue to ignore the importance of OBP. And the Blue Jays…they didn’t do much of anything and worse, don’t seem to have much of a plan.

You can see all of our Hot Offseason Action grades here.