On Wednesday, Randy Johnson goes for his 300th win against the Nationals in D.C. The big question: how many people will show up to watch?

Umpbump is giving away a free copy of Ron Darling’s book “The Complete Game” to the person who can come the closest to guessing tomorrow night’s paid attendance without going over.

Some things to consider:

1. There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms.

2. The Nationals are on pace to lose 99 games.

3. Randy Johnson plays for the Giants, who are pretty bad themselves.

Leave your guesses in the comments section. And remember folks, “The Price is Right” rules are in effect.

UPDATE: I’ve closed the comments on the post, because we’re now T-minus 30 minutes to game time. For what it’s worth, I can’t believe nobody guessed 1 person.

As of this writing, the man they call The Big Unit is five wins shy of joining the ranks of the game’s 300-game winners. You know what that means, right kids?

Articles about how he will be the last 300-game winner ever!!!

Long time readers (are there any of you out there?) may be getting a sense of deja vu, because you’ve read this before here on Umpbump. We thought it was ridiculous how some writers were making that same claim back in 2007 when Tom Glavine crossed the mark. And we were right. Because Randy Johnson is right at the door step.

Look, we get it. Unless Jamie Moyer decides to pitch until he’s 55 (may happen at this point), no one else is all that close. Pettite, Pedro and Smoltz are not going to get there and they’re the only active pitchers who have even made it to 200. And unless I’m missing someone, there are only two guys under 30 who have even hit triple digits (Sabathia and Garland). But chances are, someone’s going to do it again. And need we remind you that when he turned 30 back in September of 1993 (Jesus, the guy is old…), Randy Johnson only had 64 wins on his resume?

So we ask you, who will it be, Umpbumpers? Who’s going to be the next to 300 wins?

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One of the subplots of Tom Glavine’s accomplishment of 300 career wins has been the mini-debate among members of the press regarding whether or not this will be the last time that this round number will be reached. Certainly, a major reason why this debate even exists is to make it a more compelling event for the viewers, as if we needed any extra help to fully appreciate the moment. But the talking heads and the pens must see some truth in this to spend so much time discussing a hypothetical, right? There must be some part of them that is honestly wondering if we’ll ever see anyone reach 300 ever again. Me, I have no such doubts. I know that I’ve had the opportunity to witness some of the greatest players to ever play this game. But I’m also not so egotistical (close, but not quite) that I fail to realize that some of the absolute best are yet to step foot onto a Major League field.

We all want our lives to be special. We often talk in hyperboles regarding our personal experiences although the overwhelming majority of the time they are far from warranted. For example, I have a tendency to describe things as being ”awesome” even though the situation is far from awe inspiring. If your friends are less than ecstatic after listening to your story about “the best time” you had over the weekend, you’re more apt to assume that the message didn’t come across properly than you are to realize that the experience you’ve described was simply underwhelming from the start. It doesn’t make us bad people or anything. It’s just something that we do.

And it’s this human flaw, I think, that helps perpetuate the singular experience of being a baseball fan. If you ask a 25-year old who’s the better hitter: David Ortiz or Hank Greenberg, I think a lot of them would say Ortiz. If you asked the same question to someone in their seventies, I’m fairly certain that the answers will be very different. Moreover, this is the same reason why we say things like “you can’t appreicate (player X) until you’ve seen him play every day”, which is one of my least favorite arguments ever because once that defense is utilized, the debate is over. It’s a total cop-out.

Which brings me back to the argument at hand. Is Tom Glavine the last 300-game winner ever? I’m pretty confident in stating that, no, he is not. Assuming that this planet of ours can withstand having us human beings living on it for a good while longer, there will be another 300 game winner. It’s money in the bank. There was a time not too long ago when people were wondering if the art of the stolen base was dead. That it perished along with the careers of Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, and Tim Raines. Then comes Jose Reyes who’s on pace to swipe 78 this year. If I told you that he would steal 85 or even 90 next year, is that so out of the realm of possibility? I don’t think it is.

What makes this mark seem unlikely in the future is that the group of pitchers that were supposed to follow the current collection of 40-year olds like Glavine, Maddux, Clemens, Smoltz and Randy Johnson never panned out. The best pitcher between the ages of 35-39 is Pedro Martinez, who is at the moment 94 wins shy of 300 due to injuries and subsequent decline in performance. Mike Mussina is 38-years old and has 246 career wins but  he too has shown his age the past four seasons. Andy Pettitte has had a very good career but was never consistently a top-10 pitcher. And the list just detreriorates after that:

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