The rate at which home runs have been flying out of the new Yankee Stadium has been a hot topic since the first weeks of the season, but up to now the statheads have been urging caution and calm. “Small sample size” they have cried.

But as we close in on the two month mark, it is becoming increasingly more clear that New Yankee Stadium is one of the greatest home run parks of all time.

Indeed, in only its first season, the stadium is already on pace to smash the mark for most home runs hit at a ballpark in a single season.  The current record was set at pre-humidor Coors Field in 1999, when 303 homers were bashed (making Coors only stadium ever to surpass 300 thus far). But with 82 homers hit at Yankee Stadium already in only 22 games, the stadium is on pace for a ridiculous 317 homers this year.

Averaged out, an astounding 3.91 homers per game have been hit in the Bronx so far this season. By comparison, 1.98 homers were hit per game at Old Yankee Stadium last season, which is right around the typical American League average of about 2.00 per game.

What went wrong

So what exactly is wrong with New Yankee Stadium?  Well, recent wind studies have demonstrated that the new ballpark is about 20% more likely than the old one on any given day to have a wind blowing out to the outfield of 10 mph or more, with the likelihood increasing even further in the spring and fall. Given that a tail wind of 10 miles per hour will cause a typical borderline homerun ball to travel about 25 feet further, a significant assist that is only increased as the windspeed goes up.

Just watching the highlights of the homers hit out of New Yankee Stadium so far, this wind assist is plain to see. Anything hit fairly high in the air takes off once it gets into the wind, especially to right field. Guys are hitting home runs one handed, or even when they get jammed or get too far under the ball.  And when players actually do hit the ball right on the screws, they are hitting monstrous bombs.

Only adding to the homer woes, the stadium designers pulled a fast one with the dimensions in right field.  Although the most often cited dimensions, such as down the foul lines and to straightaway center are the same as the old park, thus preserving “Yankee tradition,” the designers flattened out the sharp dogleg in the right field wall, meaning that in some places, the right field wall is as much as nine feet closer to home plate in the new stadium.

This is pretty huge, and very significant when the old stadium was already legendary for having one of the shortest right field porches in the entire game (allegedly designed for the Babe).  Already this season somewhere in the region of ten homers have been hit out to right field that would not have gone out in the old stadium, just judging by distance alone, before wind is even taken into account.

What to do now

It’s obviously a little too late to go back and fix a $1.5 billion stadium.  And I’m actually of the opinion that having different stadiums that play differently is one of baseball’s charms, unlike football or basketball where the dimensions are always identical.

But what the Yankees do need to do is build a team that will be best suited to their stadium. And they need to start now.  Here are my recommendations:

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Quick, guess which team is leading the National League in OPS.  Unbelievably, it is the oft-ridiculed Washington Nationals, even though they have the worst record in baseball at 10-21.

The Nats’ outstanding team OPS of .809 is more than enough to edge out the now Manny-less Dodgers for first place.  They are third in homers with 42, behind only the Brewers (44) and the Rockies (43), both of whom play in bandboxes.  Their very healthy .361 OBP trails only the Mets and Dodgers, and their robust .448 slugging percentage trails only the Phillies.

Add it all up and you have the best hitting team in the League.  In fact 7 out of 8 members of the regular starting lineup have OPS’s of at least .821 or higher, and the one guy who doesn’t, second basemen Anderson Hernandez, only falls short for lack of power and still contributes with a sparkling .378 OBP.

Which all makes it really too bad that the Nationals can’t pitch their way out of a paper bag.  Their 5.54 team ERA is easily last in the league, and it’s not even that close (surprisingly, second worst are the 16-14 Phillies, at 5.31).

So basically the Nats are on pace to become Rangers East.  However, by all accounts they do not face the same structural constrains on good pitching in their new ballpark that the Rangers do at Arlington.  Which means the Nationals pitchers really do flat-out suck.

But it also means, especially with their offense, that if they can scrounge up some good pitchers somewhere, they really make some noise. It’s probably too late to turn things around this year, but Adam Dunn is on a two-year deal, so a dark-horse run next year behind Dunn and Stephen Strasburg is not out of the question.

Because they sure as hell don’t have any offense.

The Reds’ pitching staff, especially Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, and the front end of the bullpen, has somehow kept Cincinnati in the thick of it, just 1.5 games off the pace in the NL Central, despite the fact that pretty much the entire team is hitting .200 or below.

Sucking it - Phillips is batting .174

Indeed, an incredible five starters are below the Mendoza Line – C Ramon Hernandez (.175), 2B Brandon Phillips (.174), 3B Edwin Encarnacion (.159), SS Alex Gonzalez (.111), and LF Jerry Hairston Jr. (.179).  Hairston’s platoon partner Chris Dickerson is barely any better, at .214, and even team star Jay Bruce had to go 2-4 last night to raise his average to .238.

Outside of Joey Votto this team is pretty much praying for errors or hit-by-pitches when they are at bat, because their team OBP is a lowly .317.  It’s not even like they can get some runs back with the long-ball, having hit only 9 dingers so far.

It’s still early, but the Reds’ offense is looking pretty toothless, at 28th in the majors in runs scored. And even though some of these guys are bound to improve, its not as if any of these guys are really all that good to begin with, and this is basically the same team that was 23rd in runs last year.  So just waiting for these guys to revert to career norms is not going to cut it.

With their pitching the Reds have a legitimate chance to stay in contention this year, but they have to find some way to get some more big bats in there, and soon.  This is a team that could have really benefitted from signing a guy like Adam Dunn to a short-term deal.  If only he actually liked to play baseball, am I right?

This is one of  a series of posts in which we rip each team for their offseason blunders and laud them when necessary for the occasional savvy move.

Since 2002, as I have alluded to previously in this space, the Washington Nationals have let more major league talent slip throught their fingers than probably any other three teams combined.  And unfortunately this horrendous record of mismanagement shows no signs of abating.

Nothing symbolizes the Nats’ utter directionlessness and total lack of a game plan than their foolish and futile pursuit of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira earlier this winter.  As good a player as Teixeira is, the Nationals are probably the team in major league baseball that would stand to *least* benefit from his acquisition.

Adam Dunn, no doubt explaining to his son why playing baseball sucks.

Given that they already have two other first baseman signed to big contracts, are nowhere near contention, and need to rebuild at almost every other position on the diamond.  But the Learners and Stan Kasten were all pressing for the signing of a big-name free agent, and happy-go-lucky cowboy/GM Jim Bowden was happy to try to oblige.

Ironically, then, the failure to sign Teixeira may well have been the single best thing that happened to the the Nationals in what was otherwise a disastrous offseason. In addition to missing out on Tex, the team found out one of their top prospects was actually 23 rather than 19 (and therefore that they had essentially flushed $1.4 million down the drain), saw their GM embroiled in a Federal Investigation, had to close down their camp in the Dominican and fire Jose Rijo, and now is reportedly plotting the firing of Bowden right in the middle of spring training.

Not to mention that none of the moves the Nats made this offseason are any good.  The trade of three prospects for this years Florida Marlins arbitration victims Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham looks okay on the surface. Well, except that Olsen got lucky last year thanks to an unsustainably low BABIP, and now we find out that his fastball velocity mysteriously dropped over the course of the last two seasons, from 91 mph to 87 mph.  And that Josh Willingham has not been able to stay healthy, has never built on the promise he showed in his 2006 rookie year, and is already 30 years old, making it increasingly likely that 2006 was his peak rather than a hint of his upside.

Moreover, while I personally have never been sold on Emilio Bonifacio – the young infielder who was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Marlins – at least lots of people around the game think he can be a good player, and it is baffling to trade him now because he is a second baseman which is currently a gaping hole in the Nats lineup, whereas the Nats had no need for yet another outfielder in Willingham, or another 5th starter-type in Olsen.  But most of all it just makes no sense at all for the Nationals to take on overpriced, mediocre players during their highly expensive arbitration years when they are nowhere near contention.

The other big move the Nationals made was the acquisition of free agent 1B/OF Adam Dunn.  While I personally think Dunn is a great player, this move possibly makes even less sense for the Nationals than signing Teixeira would have, in that at least giving an eight year deal to Tex might have held the possibility that he would someday play on a contender, whereas giving Dunn $20 million over two years where the Nats have no hope of contending is just flushing money down the drain.  It doesn’t even make sense from the perspective of getting more fans to come out to the park, given that 50 percent of people passionately believe that Dunn is a lazy bum who strikes out too much and hates baseball.

What we are left with is an incredibly unbalanced team that seems to have been assembled with the help of a random number generator. The Nats are paying $25 million this year to three different first baseman and have 6 starting outfielders in Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris. But meanwhile they have no second baseman, I challenge you to name their shortstop without looking, their bullpen is in tatters, and with the losses of Odalis Perez and Tim Redding the composition of their pitching rotation behind Olsen and lone bright spot John Lannan is largely a mystery.

The good news is that the slight improvements the Nationals made at the hefty pricetag of about $25 million in added payroll are likely to ensure that they will improve on their MLB-worst 59-102 record last season.  But that is where the good news ends, as it will be a struggle to win 70 games.

Overall the Nationals’ payroll is projected to be about $75 million this year. Is any team doing less with more?

Offseason Grade: D-

Acquisitions: 1B Adam Dunn, LHP Scott Olsen, OF Josh Willingham, P Daniel Cabrera, C Javier Valentin, IF Alex Cintron, OF Corey Patterson, P Wil Ledezma, P Josh Towers, P Terrell Young

Losses: P Chad Cordero, P Odalis Perez, IF Emilio Bonifacio, P Tim Redding, IF Aaron Boone, P Jesus Colome

Projected Starters, Rotation, and Closer:

C Jesus Flores
1B Adam Dunn – hit exactly 40 homers in each of the last 4 seasons
2B ???
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Christian Guzman – an out-making machine, his ‘08 “comeback” was all batting avg.
LF Josh Willingham/Wily Mo Pena
CF Lastings Milledge/Willie Harris
RF Elijah Dukes/Austin Kearns

SP1 John Lannan
SP2 Scott Olsen
SP3 Daniel Cabrera – The modern master of the art of base-on-balls
SP4 Shawn Hill?
SP5 ???

CL Joel Hanrahan

- Hot Offseason Index -

Adam Dunn could be the bargain of the offseason

Due to a scheduling snaffu (and Nick not reading his email) both he and I wrote posts about what the Angels need. Since we largely agree when it comes to the halos’ shortcomings, I won’t bore you with the post that I wrote. But I will further one point that he made.

Both Nick and I agree that Mark Teixeira probably isn’t worth all the money and years he’ll demand. Nick pointed out that there are cheaper options out there. Let me suggest one in particular. The Angels should sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now, as he may come surprisingly cheap. How cheap? Recently, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick talked to a couple of officials who suggested Dunn might have to settle for a contract in the three-year, $36MM range. And today, Buster Olney says while “there had been talk during the summer of Adam Dunn getting $15 million a year this winter, now his salary range might be little more than half of that.”

If that’s true, that’s an absolute steal. Think about it — $12MM over three years is the same contract Jose Guillen got. $8MM a year is Adam Eaton money. I know Dunn strikes out a ton and he can’t catch a cold, but he’s a mortal lock to hit 40 homers (in the last four seasons he’s hit exactly 40). The Angels need to sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now. Right now. Go! Sign him!

How do you improve the postseason chances of a team that’s 18th in slugging percentage and and 21st on on base percentage? Answer: You trade for Adam Dunn.

That’s exactly what the Arizona Diamondbacks did today, acquiring the lefty slugger for prospect Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.

It’s no secret that Arizona was in dire need of a bat. With Orlando Hudson now out for the remainder of the season, first baseman/left fielder Connor Jackson was the only big offensive threat in the entire lineup. With the left fielder Dunn joining the team, the Diamondbacks can keep Jackson at first for the rest of the season. Moreover, this allows manager Bob Melvin to take Chad Tracy out of the everyday lineup and use him as a lefty bat off the bench or to spell Jackson or third baseman Mark Reynolds on occasion. The D-Backs will also be getting RFer Justin Upton back from the DL any day now, and should also help give the club a nice offensive boost.

Prior to the trading deadline, SI’s Jon Heyman was reporting that Arizona had at the time offered Tracy to Cinci for Dunn but was unsurprisingly rejected. A couple of weeks and a Manny-to-Dodgers trade later, the Diamondbacks agreed to give up 23-year old Dallas Buck, a righty pitcher with High-A Visalia. Buck was drafted in the third round back in 2006, but underwent Tommy John in 2007 and missed the rest of the season plus the bulk of this one as well. He began his 2008 campaign in Low-A South Bend and had made one start in Visalia thus far. As such, I love this move from Arizona’s perspective. In the deep, prospect-laden Arizona organization, Buck was never considered one of the top prospects. And coming off a major surgery, Buck had missed a great deal of development time for a pitcher his age.

On the Cincinatti side, this one’s a bit tough for me to evaluate. One could argue that they needed to get something for Dunn, who is an upcoming free-agent. However, a hitter of his stature would have probably netted a nice compensation pick or two once he signed elsewhere. So the key becomes who those two “players to be named later” are. And without knowing what kind of offers the Reds had been getting for Dunn prior to the deadline (as I’ve written here before, I’ve never quite understood why there was so little interest in him from contending teams), I don’t know what they missed out on.

But I do think that the race between Arizona and LA just got a little bit more interesting.

There are very few players in baseball that polarize the supporters of traditional and sabermetric statistics than the Cincinatti Reds’ Adam Dunn. Those who favor traditional stats look at his career .247 batting average and the tons of strikeouts he accumulates. The sabermetric crowd loves his on-base and slugging percentages and are more willing to overlook his deficiencies. If you’ve read UmpBump regularly, then you probably know that I’m pretty firmly on the sabermetric side. And no, I was not a math geek growing up. Hated it, in fact.

Anyhow, it should come as no surprise when I say that Adam Dunn just might be the most underrated hitter in baseball today and I would love to have the guy play for my New York Mets this year. But if Joel Sherman of the New York Post is correct (and when is the Post ever wrong?), that’s simply a pipe dream. Not because the Mets don’t have the pieces to get the deal done – which is probably true – but, even more disconcertingly, because they’re evaluating him using these traditional stats that do not do players like Dunn much justice:

The Mets did consider Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn, but his poor defense, historical problems in clutch situations and high strikeout rates have eliminated interest.

His defense does leave something to be desired. Regardless of whether he’s evaluated using traditional (2007 fielding percentage of .976 in left field) or sabermetric (.826 Revised Zone Rating and 31 out-of-zone plays made in 2007) numbers, Adam Dunn is a below-average left fielder. However, according to the Sherman article as well as MLBTradeRumors.com, the Mets are strongly considering Raul Ibanez of the Mariners instead. While I like the idea of bringing Ibanez into the fold, I do wonder why the question of defense doesn’t come up in this instance. His fielding percentage was pretty much identical to Dunn’s (.975) last season and his zone rating (percentage of balls that were hit into a typical left fielder’s fielding zone and was fielded cleanly) was worse at .813. Ibanez did field more out-of-zone balls (41), but put it all together and you have two fielders with similar levels of ability. If defense is an issue with Dunn, why not so for Ibanez?

Next up on the list of undue criticisms is the idea that Adam Dunn has “historical problems in clutch situations”. This is a tricky area because the word “clutch” means different things to different people and often varies in meaning depending upon the argument one’s trying to make. Statements like “he’s not clutch because he doesn’t hit with runners in scoring position”, “he’s not clutch because he doesn’t hit in the later innings in close games”, or “he’s not clutch because he didn’t hit in April/May/June/July/August/September/October when his team needed him the most” get bandied about at one’s convenience.

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Today the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Oakland DH Jack Cust has made history. With six games to go this year, Cust has played in 118 games and struck out 154 times, most in the American League. Though Cust didn’t join the A’s until May 4, he has the sixth-highest strikeout total in Oakland history.

The major-league mark for most strikeouts with fewer than 125 games played is 158, held by Bo Jackson (1987) and Melvin Nieves (1996).

Cust has a pretty relaxed attitude about his new record.

From the SF Chronicle:

“I’m just going to strike out a lot,” he said. “I always lead every league I’m in in strikeouts, so I figure if it’s the major leagues, at least that’s the best league. It’s better than leading the Pacific Coast League.”

Hard to argue with that.

The Chronicle points out that next year, Cust will be a favorite to break the single-season strikeout record:

Next year, Cust might have a shot at the single season record of 195, set by Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn in 2004.

Umm…earth to the Chronicle. Dunn’s record is yesterday’s news.

I can’t keep track. Do we still care if a player strikes out a lot? It seems to me that we used to blast guys like Dunn for striking out as much as he does. But I don’t hear those same complaints as much anymore. And I certainly don’t hear anybody complaining about Ryan Howard, the new strikeout king.

Have we changed our tune? Is it now okay to strikeout a lot, as long as you put up gaudy power numbers?