If you take a quick glance at the Minnesota Twins 2009 campaign, you might deem it a success since they reached the postseason. But taking a closer look at the numbers and you’ll realize that the Twins were basically a carbon copy of their 2008 selves. The difference was essentially the outcome of the second, division-deciding, one-game playoff in as many years (I mean, their records were almost identical!).

Well, not everything was identical. Last year, I pointed out the dearth of power as the Twins hit the least home runs in the American League and this time around, they managed to increase that number by over 50 long balls. Problem is, along with those gains came some significant losses: Had a lower team batting average, stole less bases, allowed more runs and scored less than in 2008.

Even still, their offense was good enough to get them over the hump, posting the third best average in the majors and scoring the fifth most runs. Pitching, on the other hand, was mediocre: Fifth worse ERA and third worse batting average against.

With that said, there are two areas that the Twins need to focus on this offseason, adding a bat or two to the infield, and solidifying their rotation. By trading for J.J. Hardy, who’ll take over a departing Orlando Cabrera at short, while clearing a bit of the log-jam in the outfield in the process (they shipped the inconsistent Carlos Gomez), they’ve plugged a hole in the infield. Question is, will Hardy be a good replacement over Cabrera or even Brendan Harris, who posted better numbers in ‘08?

The Twins also have a hole at third, as the Joe Crede experiment culminated in a third consecutive offseason back surgery.

Btw, this quote from Scott Boras regearding Crede is priceless:

“The great thing about Joe is you’re hiring on a one-year contract,” Boras said. “It’s not often you’re going to get that level of a player to sign for one year.”

Many names are currently being floated in the internetz as possibilities for the Twins to add to their infield, including Brandon Phillips, Felipe Lopez, and Adrian Beltre, so expect another trade or perhaps a run at a free agent like Orlando Hudson.

The Twins also need to improve their rotation as only three starters made more than 29 starts, so it’s no surprise that GM Bill Smith was openly discussing the possibility of bringing in a veteran arm or two.

As it’s always the case, the Twins will try to make all these moves within the scope of their frugality, and any move will have to be tied to a long-term plan, says Smith. Sure, their new stadium is ready go, but any increase in attendance revenue will only be available next offseason.

- What They Need index -

The Phillies dodged a bullet. Today they found out that catcher Carlos Ruiz’s wrist isn’t structurally damaged and he’ll be back in action in a week.

Good thing, because after Ruiz the Phillies have zero catching depth.

And that’s really amazing, because when the season started the organization had a slew of catchers.

Here’s what happened:

Over the winter the Phils traded minor league catcher Jason Jaramillo, an above-average defender who couldn’t hit, for Ronny Paulino, a good hitting catcher with a reputation for dickishness.

Then the Phillies traded Paulino for lefty reliever Jack Taschner, who has bounced between the big club and triple-A this season. With the Phils he’s given up 36 hits in 28 innings. Paulino, meanwhile, ended up with the Marlins where he played 75 games and hit .278/.344/.435. Fangraphs says he’s been worth $7.7MM this season.

The Phils entered 2009 with Ruiz the starter, Chris Coste the backup, and prospect Lou Marson waiting in the wings at triple-A. Then the Phils traded Marson in the Cliff Lee deal, and they were down to only two guys with major league skills — Ruiz and Coste.

So the Phils picked up Paul Bako, a career backup with a good reputation as a receiver and absolutely no clue when it comes to hitting a baseball. Look up “replacement level catcher” in the dictionary and you’ll find a picture of Bako.

And then they put Coste on waivers to make room for Raul Ibanez, who was coming off a month-long DL stint, and the Astros claimed Coste (damn you, Ed Wade!).

And just like that they were down to two catchers, and one of them was Bako. And he sucks.

This week the Phils came dangerously close to losing Ruiz and entering the postseason with Bako as their starting catcher and minor league journeyman Paul Hoover the backup.

Next season, maybe Philadelphia should bring back the mustache, just in case?

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

By now, we should all be familiar with the way the Twins approach each and every offseason. There’s the restrained budget, the flurry of arbitration case signings, and the trying to secure as much young talent as possible.

Nick Punto is coming back, baby, and with a vengeance

It’s the law of the land for the Twinkies, and it won’t change anytime soon, not after finishing in a tie for first place with the White Sox.

Though things are business as usual this offseason, Minnesota’s inactivity might actually work out in their favor. The economic woes hitting the country are undoubtedly having an impact in the way small market teams like the Twins go about their business. It’s not surprising at all that the Twins haven’t made headlines by signing a big-name free agent (even backing out on one). Instead, the Twins have so far concentrated on retaining some of the young talent in their system.

The Twins had two major needs this offseason, plugging a hole in the infield with a power hitting third baseman or shortstop, and solidifying their bullpen. After flirting with the idea of going after players like Adrian Beltré, Casey Blake, Orlando Cabrera, Eric Gagné, Brandon Lyon, and Jarrod Washburn, they’ve opted to upgrade from within (thus far).

In fact, they’ve only had serious negotiations with three free agents. They tendered a “framework” of a contract to Blake, who ended up signing with the Dodgers. They also came close to signing reliever Eric Gagne to an incentive-laden deal, but withdrew their offer at the last minute.

The other player the Twins have had serious interest in is Joe Crede, who is coming off surgery to repair a herniated disk (a procedure he had once before in 2007), sending a scout to his recent work out in Arizona.  News reports indicated that Crede looked good enough to be ready for spring training, drawing some new contract offers, but none from the Twins.

According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen, the Twins came away from those workouts believing the All-Star third baseman was only moving at 75 percent. Though the Twins do have a serious need to find a power-hitting infielder, there’s legitimate concern with Crede’s health considering he’d spend a good chunk of the season playing on the Metrodome’s AstroTurf. So far Scott Boras (who reps Crede) insists that his client is ready, and he recently implied he’ll sign with a team in the next week. But the Twins are dragging their feet. The sense is that they’ll platoon Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris, while Nick Punto plays short (for what it’s worth, Twins CEO Jim Pohlad told a group of reporters yesterday that “we’re not done.“)

As far as the bullpen is concerned, the non-signing of Gagne first indicated that the Twins would more comfortable giving the ball to young talent like Jose Mijares, rather than shelling a few millions for an expiring veteran, yet they did sign Luis Ayala to a one-year $1.53MM deal. Plus, this year’s bullpen will feature three guys that were part of the 2006 bullpen, which according to Eric Seidman at Fangraphs, was the best in the league, playoff team or not, since 2002.

Don’t think the Twins haven’t had a busy offseason, though. They re-signed Punto, and avoided arbitration with Jason Kubel and Matt Guerrier (the Kubel signing was puzzling to Rob Neyer, considering they could’ve used the money to grab a more productive hitter like Eric Hinske). And even though there is the possibility of having around 10 players headed to arbitration in 2010, by then, the economy might’ve picked up, and – what’s more important – the new ball park will be opening its doors. Which could mean the Twins head into the 2010 season with some economic flexibility, even though the projected free agent pool will be thinner than this year.

Al.Most.There.

Projected lineup, rotation and closer:

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Alexi Casilla
SS Nick Punto
3B Bruan Buscher/Brendan Harris
LF Delmont Young
CF Carlos Gomez/Michael Cuddyer
RF Denard Span
DH Jason Kubel

SP Francisco Liriano
SP Nick Blackburn
SP Scott Baker
SP Kevin Slowley
SP Glen Perkins

CL Joe Nathan

Players added: Luis Ayala, Joe Crede

Players lost: Adam Everett, Dennys Reyes, Mike Lamb

Offseason grade: C B-

Sure the Twins didn’t make any major moves, and barring a sudden change of heart to sign Crede, the roster is pretty much set. A couple of months ago, I wrote in my What They Need that the Twins were a few very realistic scenarios away from going to the playoffs in 2008. Scenarios that involved many of the young players they still have. But the need then, as it still remains now, was offense. They haven’t addressed that need. The truth is the Twins have plenty of young talented starters, and have a young crop of outfielders, but the Twins’ biggest strength is their pitching, who figure to be better this year having the benefit of more experience. Whether it’s enough to keep them in contention is a gamble that the front office is willing to take. In this case, maybe, just maybe, doing nothing was significantly better than doing something.

Updated post to reflect the Ayala signing, and the added/lost player lists.

Update #2 – Feb. 22: It took a while, but the Twins finally signed Joe Crede. Providing his back holds up, and he’s able to hit anywhere close to 20 home runs, he’ll be a major contribution. I think that upgrades their C grade to a B-.

- Hot Offseason Action index -

Joe Mauer got a little MVP love from the BBWA

Before the 2008 season, a common grievance among Twinkie faithful was how little they got in Johan Santana trade, and almost lost in the gloominess were the contracts to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. And while in a perfect world, the Twins would’ve kept their former Ace, things didn’t turn out so bad after all. They did challenge for the pennant with a young and agile team, and both of their young stars were among the top four in AL MVP voting.

Think about it, the Twins needed to win one more game than the White Sox won to go to the playoffs. Had they let Livan Hernandez go sooner, had Liriano been available earlier, had Carlos Gomez been a little more patient at the plate, had Delmon Young hit two percentage points higher; they might have gone to the playoffs. Sure all of that is in the past, but the key to 2009 is the realistic possibility of all these scenarios coming together because there’s a core group of players that already produce good numbers.

The Twins were quick, they stole 102 bases, and they were on base a lot, putting up a .340 OBP, both good for fifth in the AL; they had the third best batting average, and scored and produced more runs than the White Sox did. So what do they need?

Well, there was a noticeable absence of power. As much as it’s true that the White Sox rely on home runs to win, the Twins didn’t make it over the hump due to the dearth of long balls: they hit a measly 111, good for dead last in the AL.

Lots of running, but no long ball.

Lest we think 2008 was a fluke, the Twins have been in home run cellar-ville for the past four seasons. Last time they hit more than 150 home runs was 2004, and guess who won the division that year…

The good news: The Twins are on the case. They’ve been looking to upgrade the left side of the infield, giving Adrian Beltre some consideration and being mentioned as possible destinations for Garrett Atkins if the Rockies decide to trade him, but all signs point to Casey Blake as their choice at third, and Orlando Cabrera as a possible upgrade at short.

As far as pitching is concerned, their starters were relatively stable, with all five regulars earning double-digit wins; now that Francisco Liriano is healthy, one full season of his services will only improve their rotation. If anything, they might need one or two more bullpen arms to pitch in the sixth and seventh innings before turning the ball over to Dennys Reyes and Joe Nathan.

Now, the million-dollar question is (quite literally), can the Twins afford bigger moves? In a word, no. Frugality is the Twins’ game, and they’ve come close to mastering it, going to the playoffs four times since 2002. Yes, there is a new stadium being built, but it’ll be ready for the 2010 season, so until then, don’t expect anything more than what we’ve already used to from the Twinkies.

Soon enough Twins fans, soon enough...

– What They Need Index –

So here we are people, live-blogging this one-game playoff to set the mood for the eventual playoffs. To quickly recap the steps we had to take to get here:

* White Sox were up 2 1/2 games last Wednesday, before the start of the Twins-Sox series.

* Twins sweep, winning three games straight, to pull ahead half a game.

* Last weekend of the season, both Sox and Twins lose two outta three against the Indians and Royals, respectively, maintaining the status quo.

* As a result, the White Sox played a make-up game against the Tigers yesterday. Because the Pale Hose won, they evened up with the Twins at 88-74, hence tonight.

Live blog after the break.

Read the rest of this entry »

Alright, blatant homerism aside, tonight’s one-game playoff between the Twins and White Sox is by far the cure for the common AL Central Boring Pennant Race. Don’t tell me that as a baseball fan you wouldn’t want the outcome of this thing to be decided this way (poll!!) because I wouldn’t believe you. Not only did we get extra baseball yesterday, we get over-time season baseball. So, in the spirit of the 163d game for both Twinkies and Palehose (which I will live-blog tonight), a little game I like to call: he said, he said (or she said, in this case – thanks melissa):

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This is it.  This is for October.  One final contest with the world of baseball watching to see who comes out the victor.  Oh, and if you were asking yourself:  “Why are the Twins in Chicago for this game instead of the other way around?”, you’re not the only one.  The Twins are in Chicago because of a coin flip.  Apparently head-to-head results matter nothing–huzzah.

Jesse at Twinkietown

Now the Piranhas must leave the Dome of Doom and attempt to win at Cellblock field. Game 163, the tie-breaker will go to the pale hose.

Frequent UmpBump commenter (and occasional contributor) melissa.

The game was sold out within a hour. It will be the most hostile environment many Twins players will have experienced to this point in their careers. I have NOT forgotten the 2003 All-Star Game in Chicago, when fans booed Eddie Guardado mercilessly during introductions.

La Velle E. Neal III at the Star Tribune’s Twins’ Insider blog.

”The work we do in November to get in shape during the offseason until now is all for this,” veteran reliever Scott Linebrink said. ”Everybody works all year to get to where we are right now. We need to take advantage of it.”

Veteran reliever Scott Linebrink.

“I’ll take my chance against him if he pitches the way he pitched last time,” Guillen said Monday.

“He didn’t pitch well. When you’ve got the bullpen warming up in the second inning … we just didn’t approach him the right way.”

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn, the scheduled starter for tonight’s game.

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Poll? Poll!!

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Yes, Virginia, there will be a one-game playoff tomorrow between the Twins and the White Sox. Forgive me for the exuberance, but last week was a long bloody $#*&% week.

And yes, I know its hard to measure the intangibles in baseball, but if ever there was a text-book definition of clutch it was this moment and this moment alone.