Jay Dieffenbach of the Arizona Republic has an interesting piece on the young season’s surprising and disappointing teams.

The calendar flips into May this week, and with that, the baseball season moves from “it’s early” to “maybe that’s how good they’re going to be.”

After running through a few hot and cold teams, he asks:

…does anyone believe that this is the season the Tampa Bay Rays finish at .500 or better?

[Raises hand, and right eyebrow.] Um, I do.

Why not? Their best slugger had 46 homers last year. That was more than anyone else in the AL East, save A-Rod. Their best pitcher led the league in K’s. And that was last year, when they lost more games than any other team in MLB. This year, they’ve still got those guys—Carlos Pena and Scott Kazmir—though Kazmir has yet to join the big-league club this year. But even without their ace, the Rays already have the second-best ERA in the American League and they’re tied for first in batting average allowed. And frankly, I don’t think it’s a fluke. The Red Sox came into the Trop this weekend with the hottest offense in baseball: three of the top five batting averages in the AL belonged to Boston hitters, and the Sox had scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in their last two series. Boston leads the league in runs scored, OBP, and total bases. Yet the Tampa Bay pitchers limited the juggernaut to a measly five runs over three games.

The Rays swept Boston and now sit atop the AL East standings. Will they still be there in September? I don’t think so. But they’re 10 and 6 in the division so far. They’ve got the AL East’s best run differential, with 17 more runs scored than allowed, and they’ve got their pitchers to thank for it—not just their young starters, but their stingy bullpen as well. I can’t remember a Tampa Bay team with pitchers like this. And when throw in hitters like Pena, BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, and the hotly anticipated Evan Longoria, you know they’re going to score some runs, too.

So maybe this is how good they’re going to be. The rest of the AL East had better pick up the pace.

This is one of a series of posts in which we throw cold water on each team’s pathetic offseason twiddlings while spraying champagne all over their ingenious winter machinations.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been stuck in a funk lo these last few years. They compete in a tough-as-nails division, dominated by two big-market teams, and they only crack the top two when something goes horribly wrong with one of those teams (such as when the Red Sox experienced disastrous injuries in 2006, allowing the Jays to beat them for second place by one game). And last year, despite heading into the season with a promising lineup, they themselves suffered injury after injury, apparently cursed by a vengeful swamp hag. Yet despite this, they managed to hang around second place in the AL East through the first half of the 2007 season, as the Yankees were similarly blighted. Unfortunately for Toronto, the Yankees then suddenly remembered, “Holy s—, we’re the New York f—ing Yankees!” and started winning again. And the Blue Jays finished the season 13 games out of first place.

What did the Jays do this offseason to try and break out of their perpetual state of mediocrity? The signed David Eckstein. Now, David Eckstein, though often treated as little more than a punchline by the average blogger, is not actually terrible. However, he’s not actually that good, either.

The other major move made by the Jays this winter was the acquisition of Scott Rolen in a one-for-one trade of third basemen, sending Troy Glaus to the Cardinals. Rolen, pissed off at Tony La Russa, waived his no-trade clause to get out of St. Louis. Glaus, whose tender feet didn’t enjoy playing half their games on turf, was just as happy to leave the Rogers Center. When healthy, the two are remarkably similar in their offensive output, but Rolen has struggled to stay on the field since a collision at first base that left him with nagging shoulder problems. Then there’s the question of how hard Rolen will play—certainly, La Russa got the impression he was dogging it. (But perhaps Eckstein, the intangibly gritty gamer that he is, will inspire similar intestinal fortitude in his fellow infielder. There. There’s your David Eckstein joke. I hope you enjoyed it.) At least Rolen will be an upgrade, defensively. But it’s the contracts carried by each of these men that render the deal a bit of a puzzle. As Paul put it in a recent email, “Glaus had one year at $12.75m left on his deal. So they sent him away and got back Rolen who has three years and $33m left. Why would you paint yourself into a corner like that when you had the ability to lose payroll?” Why indeed? And in a year when third basemen were either commanding lucrative contracts (A-Rod, Mike Lowell) or functioning as the centerpiece in the winter’s biggest trade (Miguel Cabrera), and you, J.P. Ricciardi, wanted to trade Troy Glaus, why would you trade him for a Scott Rolen when you could have gotten a couple of decent prospects with upside?

The Jays win just enough, apparently, to keep the FO from admitting defeat and deciding to rebuild. Yet they lose too much to make the playoffs. So they’re stuck. They’ve got one bonafide ace in Roy Halladay and a good No. 2 in AJ Burnett. The back of their rotation is better than most—and at least their 3, 4, and 5 pitchers are all young. Closer BJ Ryan, who had Tommy John surgery in May, says he’ll be ready to go by Opening Day. But even if Lyle Overbay and Rolen can both bounce back offensively this year, their lineup will still lack sufficient on-base, top-of-the-order types, and they could use another power bat. Their defense? No real complaints (though Eckstein is a downgrade at short). In fact, despite the holes in their roster, the Jays have enough youngish, decent talent—guys like Halladay, Burnett, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill—that if their farm system were stocked, they might have a chance to make a good run at the Wild Card in the next couple of years. But will the farm provide?

The Jays have some decent prospects in their system, but none are close enough to the bigs to help out in the near future. In fact, the organization’s most exciting youngsters can’t even drink legally. The best of these is outfielder Travis Snider, who just turned 20 on Groundhog Day. Baseball Prospectus describes him as “one of the top hitting prospects in baseball” who projects for “legitimate MVP-level numbers” in the future. That’s the good news. The bad? His flaws make his plate approach sound a bit like JD Drew to me (”could use more aggressiveness at the plate…currently works himself into poor hitter’s counts while letting not perfect–yet perfectly hittable–pitches go by”) and the hulking 245-pounder is not fast (he got caught stealing nine times in a row last year). In a perfect world, he’d be “a number-three hitter on a championship-level team, and a perennial All-Star.” However, he has yet to play above low-A ball. For better or for worse, he still has a ways to go. And after Snider, what has Toronto got? A talented 18-year old third base prospect (Kevin Ahrens); a solid, middle-of-the-rotation type lefty making the transition from a closer to a starter and aiming for AA ball by the end of the summer (Brett Cecil); a 19-year old with power but no natural defensive position position who has played all of 49 games in the Gulf Coast League (John Tolisano); and a good catching prospect who still strikes out too much (J.P. Arencibia).

All this leads me to believe that the Lansing Lugnuts will be a great team to watch this year. I wish I could say the same for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Acquisitions: Rod Barajas, C; David Eckstein, SS; Marco Scutaro, 3B; Buck Coats, RF; Scott Rolen, 3B

Losses: Josh Towers, SP; Troy Glaus, 3B

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

SS David Eckstein, 33 years old, 3 homers, .309 avg
1B Lyle Overbay, 31 years old, 10 homers, .240 avg
RF Alex Rios, 27 years old, 24 homers, .297 avg
DH Frank Thomas, 39 years old, 26 homers, .277 avg
2B Aaron Hill, 25 years old, 17 homers, .291 avg
CF Vernon Wells, 29 years old, 16 homers, .245 avg
3B Scott Rolen, 32 years old, 8 homers, .265 avg
C, Gregg Zaun, 36 years old, 10 homers, .242 avg
LF Reed Johnson, 31 years old, 2 homers, .236 avg

SP1 Roy Halladay, 30 years old, 225.1 IP, 3.71 ERA
SP2 AJ Burnett, 31 years old, 165.2 IP, 3.75 ERA
SP3 Dustin McGowan, 25 years old, 169.2 IP, 4.05 ERA
SP4 Jesse Litsch, 22 years old, 111.0 IP, 3.81 ERA
SP5a Shaun Marcum, 26 years old, 159.0 IP, 4.13 ERA
SP5b Gustavo Chacin, 27 years old, 27.1 IP, 5.60 ERA

CL BJ Ryan, 32 years old, 38 saves with a 1.37 ERA in 2006; he had 3 saves and 2 losses, with a 12.46 ERA in 2007.

Grade: D

What the Blue Jays have assembled here is not a bad team—if they played in the NL Central. Though the Toronto brass has promised to rebuild many times, they’ve yet to actually do so. I’m not asking for a drastic fire sale; they just need to stop acquiring mediocre hitters in their 30s. If they could face up to reality and unload a couple of their older players this year at the trade deadline, they could conceivably end up with some prospects who could actually help them in 2009 or 2010. But hoping for the two teams ahead of you to suddenly collapse—especially when those two teams have healthy farm systems and way more revenue than you do—is not a strategy.

Looking towards the future of the division, with the Devil Rays ascendant and the Orioles finally starting a rebuilding process of their own, if the Jays keep on their current path, they will soon be recalling their days in third place with fond nostalgia.

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Tampa Bay _____ Rays - Hoary wisdom

The Tampa Bay Rays have been quietly improving under the radar over the past couple of years. 2007 saw a couple of things bounce their way—finally—mostly thanks to the breakout year had by Carlos Pena. The one thing they have always really lacked is starting pitching, which should be less of a problem next year. So what do they still need to put them over the top? First, a solid bullpen, at least to save poor Scott Kazmir’s sanity. And second, veteran leadership. Sure, it’s great to have a lot of young talent and get excited about what they could do. But you need to have at least one guy in the clubhouse who can do the Crash Davis thing when necessary. Isn’t Tony Clark still available?

Baltimore Orioles - Cloning technology

The Baltimore Orioles are already a step ahead of last year, since at least they seem to have approached this hot stove season with something approaching a strategy. The O’s now need to keep dumping salary wherever and whenever they can; to move Erik Bedard before his value deteriorates; and to acquire other teams’ prospects willy-nilly. And wherever Nick Markakis came from, they need more of that.

Toronto Blue Jays - Medical breakthroughs

Speaking of Bedard, boy could the Jays use him. Their pitching staff—and in fact, most of their roster—is the definition of mediocre. Last year, they looked pretty good on paper, before their roster imploded with injuries. But this year, I look at their team and don’t see a lot of upside (newly acquired Scott Rolen is no exception). Add a pitcher? Add a big bat? Sure. Add anything. Add something. At least let the current crop of big-salary-middle-of-the-road types play out their contracts while you get a farm system in order. But considering last year’s season, maybe the one thing Toronto should add if they want to make the playoffs is some really, really good team doctors.

New York Yankees - A scary starting pitcher, or, failing that, a healthy one

In October, the Yankees folded primarily because of limited starting pitching (well, that and A-Rod’s Octoberitis and Derek Jeter’s sudden propensity for hitting into double plays). Now January is half over and the New York Yankees still need solid starting pitching. Chien-Ming Wang anchored their rotation this year, winning 19 games and barely missing the 200 innings mark. Pettitte will return as No. 2, coming off a 15-win, 200+ innings season. However, Pettitte’s ERA last year cleared the 4.00 mark, which isn’t exactly lights-out. Of greater concern is Mike Mussina, who finished the year with an ERA over 5.00. The big gamble for New York is on their young arms: Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes—who came up to great fanfare last year, only to go down with an injury almost immediately. All three younguns will be on strict innings limits. When October rolls around again, will they have enough left in the tank to make it to the postseason? And assuming they bash their way into the playoffs, do they have the dominant, ace-caliber pitching you need to reach the World Series? Right now, the answer is no.

Boston Red Sox - A craving for Coco

The World Series Champs already look pretty good for next year. They need to think about 2011. A few of their key players are oh-ell-dee old. The hardest to replace will be catcher and team captain Jason Varitek. Boston is still looking for takers for Coco Crisp, and I would love to see them deal him for a catching prospect. The Red Sox have no one inspiring coming up at the position, and will be lucky if Jason Varitek clears .250 over the next three years (assuming he accepts Boston’s 2-year, $20 mill offer of a contract extension). I’d hate to see them deal Coco, who is a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder with excellent speed and offensive upside, for just anyone. But Ellsbury is the Boston CF of the future, and Coco is not a fourth outfielder. If they can’t get a young catcher for him, well, bullpen help is always nice. But I worry that if Crisp languishes in Boston another half-season as a backup, he’ll just end up…soggy.