For years now it has been established wisdom that most of the top-shelf talent in baseball eventually gravitates to the American League, due to the presence of big spending teams such the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers. This dominance of the AL over the NL has also been perceived in the AL’s recent maulings of the NL in the All-Star Game, the AL’s manhandling of the NL in Interleague Play, the perceived superiority of the recent AL World Series representatives, and the lists of big-name free agents who defect from the NL to the AL each season.

But even the most cursory of glances at the leaderboards this season yields the surprising impression that most of baseball’s biggest starts currently play in the National League, while most of the big name players in the American League are aging, injured, or both.

For example:

- The top five MLB leaders in batting average are all in the National League, as are 7 of the top 10.

- The top five MLB leaders in home runs are all in the NL, as are 7 of the top 10. Fourteen players in the NL have at least 7 or more homers, compared to a mere 4 players in the AL.

- The top eight leaders in OBP are all in the NL.

- All ten qualified players in the majors with an OPS over 1.000 are in the National League (and that is not even counting non-qualified Micah Owings). In fact, the AL only has 11 players with an OPS that is even over .900, compared to 23 in the National League.

While it is still early in the season and it is still possible that we could be seeing some sort of statistical fluke here, I think we may be seeing the beginning of a trend in which power begins to shift back toward the National League.

The way the American League has sustained its dominance in recent years was by significantly outspending the National League in the offseason free-agent market. But with the new trend which has emerged in the past two or three years of teams locking up all their good young players through their peak years by buying out several arbitration years, the free agent market has become thinner and thinner each offseason, making it harder and harder for the rich AL teams to pilfer all the NL’s hottest young stars by luring them with bigger contracts.

So now the AL teams are stuck with the aging, declining superstars they lured away five years ago, while the NL continues to produce the hot new young stars of tomorrow.

You know what I don’t get? Why is it that when a National League player gets traded to an American League team, or visa versa, he starts from scratch (statistically speaking)?

For example, Julio Lugo was traded at last year’s deadline from the Devil Rays to the Dodgers, and his stats on ESPN.com read like this:

TBD AL  73  289   17  1  12   27  18  4  27  47  .308  .373  .498

LAD NL  49  146    5  1   0   10   6  5  12  29  .219  .278  .267

I understand why, prior to interleague play, we kept a player’s National League and American League stats separate. The two leagues were very different beasts. But why have we kept doing it?

Some of the hits Lugo got as a Devil Ray last year came against National League teams. And some of the (very few) hits he got as a Dodger came against American League teams. So why not just combine his 2006 stats? Does that make too much sense?

Alright, let’s figure out what these teams need to win it all (or make me look like a genius, whichever comes first). I’ll go down the order reflecting today’s standings.

Cleveland Indians: Play some make up games…

Really. The Indians have been very good this year, they’ve scored runs when needed and they’ve pitched effectively when the run support hasn’t been there. But it’s the offense that’s been the catalyst this early in the season – they’re second in the league in runs scored, second in runs batted in, and third in on-base percentage.

Their starting pitching has been there too. Though they’ve employed the services of six starters, three of those have been quality material. Staff Ace C.C. Sabathia has been a stud, going 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA, while Fausto Carmona (2.77 ERA) and Paul Byrd (3.81) have identical 5 and 1 records. Cliff Lee, 2-1, has had brushes with success, but he’s also been disastrous, posting a bloated 5.93 ERA. Their other two starters, Jeremy Sowers and Jake Westbrook might be the prototype fifth starter, destined only to chew-up innings, while keeping the team in the game, hoping the offense pick them up in the end. Their records, 1-4, 1-2, and their ERA, 6.29, 7.90 respectively, though, are not inspiring.

The only problem has been the bullpen; out of the seven relievers that have pitched more than 11 innings, only two have an era under 2.00, while the rest have a 3.10 or higher earned run average.

The Indians have to keep it consistent all season long and they’ll be right there when it’s all said and done. Considering the fact that they still have to play those make up games with Seattle, they might even have a better record than they do now.

Detroit Tigers: Have patience….

The Tigers are anticipating a return trip to the playoffs. The air in this weekend’s series with Cleveland has been filled with aromas of contention, and keep in mind that yesterday’s was the first of 18 meetings between these two teams. Again, it’s the offense that has this team half a game out in the division, and leading the way is a reinvigorated Magglio Ordóñez, he leads the team in average, home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, and on-base percentage.

Gary Sheffield has picked up the pace after a disastrous start, hitting a few points below .300 in May. But if we’re going to point out “what they need,” I’d say their corner infielders have to provide a better offensive presence. Third baseman Brandon Inge has a depressed .218 average, with 17 RBI, while Sean Casey has a meh .259 average, zero home runs and only 9 RBI in 147 AB.

Though the team had a scare due to Jeremy Boderman’s trip to the DL, he returned in top form, blanking out the Angels in 8 innings of work. He would’ve finished the complete game gem, but manager Jim Leyland decided to play it safe.

Chicago White Sox: Ozzie Guillen to shut. Up.

And let the team do it’s thing. I have to say, Ozzie’s been a distraction; first there was his rant on Mike North’s show, which then turns into A.J. Pierzynski getting into some weird thing with Mark Buehrle. Now Ozzie’s been issuing warnings for the past two weeks; the hitters, the bench, then the relievers. Good thing the starters have done their job, otherwise Guillen would be pointing the finger at everybody.

But really, what the Sox need is to stop relying on the long ball and start hitting for average. Yes, Thome was out (and Podsednik is still out), but the Sox are dead last in runs scored (and far behind KC); dead last in RBI (and far behind Baltimore); dead last in batting average (and far away behind Texas); dead last in on-base percentage –do we see a pattern?– and yes (way, far behind Baltimore). Scottie Pods is not going to be the difference in any of those categories.

The Sox had a recent offensive outburst, scoring 10 runs for the first time, following that with an 8 run performance. But that’s all we Sox fans have seen. If your offense doesn’t produce, your relievers are going to have to be perfect almost every time out. That’s just not going to happen.

Ozzie, shut up (at least some); Sox, score some runs.

Minnesota Twins: A new stadium, like, NOW (AKA, money, money, money)

Watching a Sox-Twins game recently, I was listening as their TV people discussed the opening of the new Twins stadium in 2010. They culled figures as to how many people were going to be there every day, packing the new ball park and providing the Twinkies with much needed cash flow, ensuring the team a chance to sign proven free agents, and to keep their talent at home. Wait… it’s not as if the Twins play before a field of cornstalks every day now; people do come out to the games – so what gives? I’m not sure, and I better leave all the stadium economics to Nick.

But really, had the Twins opened their new stadium this year, and thus lined their pockets with some more cash, they might not be facing the prospect of having their Ace Johan Santana opting to test the free agent market, or their veteran leader Torii Hunter for that matter.

In actual baseball terms, aside from their stars (well, Morneaou really), the Twins have no offensive weapons (I mean, c’mon, how long did you thing the whole piranha thing was really going to last? Nick Punto?!). Plus, Joe Mauer’s been hurt.

Combine that with the necessity to sign Sidney Ponson (Sidney Ponson!) and Ramon Ortiz to be the back of their rotation, and the prospects are bleak at best. The Twins have started to slide, but, of course, they’ll probably find a way to win as they always do. I’m just not sure how they’ll do it this year.

Oh and when one of their star bloggers, Bat Girl, calls it quits, then you know the shit’s hit the fan.

Kansas City Royals: Are you serious?

The Kansas City Royals need… well, they need to stop signing “super subs” to be their every day players; the need to stop signing overpriced, unproven veterans to front their rotation, and they need to keep their young talented stars.

You can start by moving to another city, or perhaps coaxing the locals to pay up for a new stadium, or, better yet, spend those revenue sharing dollars on things other tan Gil Meche. Then you guys will contend.

Sarah had a post a few weeks ago about how “evil” some teams were because they were pocketing some change instead of spending all kinds of money in free agents (in other words, the NL vs. the AL).

Being a little late to the argument (the entire Umpbump staff except me commented on that post), I can’t say I have the final word, but I did find this website that kind of proves that, not only are some NL teams spending less money, they’re actually winning!

You can drag the date marker to see how each team is doing over time. Check it out here.

While the Phillies started the season terribly, their shortstop has been on fire. Jimmy Rollins is hitting .298 with seven HR and 14 RBI.

Most impressively, Rollins spent the first few games doing something he has rarely done in the past — he took pitches.

From the Philadelphia Inquirer:

Rollins was asked for the reason for his fast start.

“Maturity,” he said.

In what way?

“In a lot of ways,” he said with a laugh.

How about patience at the plate? Entering yesterday’s games, Rollins was tied for second in the league in pitches per plate appearance at 4.50. He was tied for sixth in the league with eight walks. If Rollins continues to get on base like he has, he and the hitters behind him could put up some big numbers.

Seven games into the season, Rollins’ newfound patience seemed like a miracle. Now, just a week and a half later, it seems like a fluke. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick points out, Rollins has returned to his free-swinging ways.

From ESPN.com:

Here’s Rollins in a nutshell: He walked eight times in the Phillies’ first seven games this season, and didn’t draw another walk in the next 12 games. Maybe he’s just bored taking those four pitches outside the zone and jogging down to first.

It seems Phillies coaches are learning the hard way what almost any woman could have told them: you can’t change a man. Rollins is a hacker. Always has been, always will be. So I guess we all better accept it.

Dan Rosenheck has an article in the Times proving what we’ve all long suspected: the NL is much weaker than the AL. (So much weaker, in fact, that without interleague play last year, my Red Sox would’ve been a sub-.500 team. But that’s another story.) Rosenheck marshals a lot of evidence to show not just that the AL is stronger, but why the AL is stronger (hint: it’s not all about the designated hitter):

Some variation in league strength is not uncommon in baseball history, but the magnitude of today’s imbalance is remarkable. The cause is straightforward: A.L. teams have spent more money on players than their N.L. counterparts. In 2005, the average N.L. team had a $71 million payroll, while the average A.L. team’s was $75 million. Since then, N.L. spending has increased only slightly, to $74 million a team, while salaries in the A.L. have soared to $93 million a team.

Surprisingly, the Yankees cannot be directly blamed for this trend. They are one of only two A.L. teams that have reduced their payroll since 2005. The Red Sox, often accused of imitating the Evil Empire, are not the primary culprits, either — their $20 million increase in spending over the past two years is right around the A.L. average.

Instead, it is the small and midmarket A.L. teams that have pumped up their payrolls. The leader, believe it or not, is perennially cellar-dwelling Kansas City, which has more than doubled its $30 million payroll of 2005. The Chicago White Sox and Toronto have also added more than $30 million in salaries over the past two years.

[…]

It may be just as fair to finger the N.L. owners for their parsimony as it is to criticize the A.L.’s titans for their largess. Fans certainly don’t factor in league strength when deciding whether to go to the ballpark or how much to spend. According to Forbes magazine, N.L. teams earn just as much revenue on average as A.L. ones do, despite their smaller payrolls, which makes them more profitable: the average N.L. franchise posted an operating income of $19.9 million in 2006, compared with $12.7 million for the A.L.

And if you’re one of those NL partisans out there who is still clinging to the misguided belief that the NL is still just as good as the AL?

At a team level, an average A.L. squad would probably improve its record by about 10 games if it could face N.L. competition, meaning that last year’s Yankees probably would have been a 107-win juggernaut if they had played the Mets’ schedule. The same is true in reverse: if the 2006 Mets had played in the A.L., they would have won only 87 games and missed the playoffs. This is about the same difference in league strength as the gap between today’s N.L. and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Eek. Ouch.

Why do I like this article? Because it shuts the door on all this moaning from Coley (and, for that matter, Nick—the other NL fan on UmpBump! aha!) about how the Red Sox are evil. We’re not evil. You national leaguers are just darn parsimonious.