This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

The Angels won 100 games in 2008, but their pythagorean record said they should have won 88. Hey, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

On the other hand, it’s never a good idea to count on being lucky. So what have the Angels done this offseason to ensure a repeat 100-win performance? The team lost free agent 1B Mark Teixeira to the Yankees — not a good start. Record-breaking closer Francisco Rodriguez went to the Mets, and L.A. made no attempt to retain longtime Angel Garret Anderson, though that shouldn’t hurt too much.

On the plus side, the Angels recently signed Bobby Abreu to a one-year deal. He and Vlad Guerrero will take turns playing RF and DH. L.A. also signed free agent closer Brian Fuentes and they re-signed OF Juan Rivera, who figures to play a more prominent role in 2009, especially if he can channel his 2006 self.

How does it all shake out? LA’s bullpen figures to be a strength once again. K-Rod had a record breaking year in 2008, but the truth is his performance has been declining over the last several seasons. Fuentes will make a fine replacement.

Replacing Teixeira was going to be harder, especially considering LA’s unwillingness to sign Manny Ramirez. The Angels settled for Abreu, who will add much needed OBP, and seem set to hand 1B to Kendry Morales, who Bill James predicts will OBP .327 and hit 19 HR. Not exactly Teixeira-esque (or even Mike Jacobs-esque, for that matter).

The x-factor for Los Angeles will be Juan Rivera, who is currently penciled in as the team’s LF. If he gets his act together, he figures to be an above average LF. That’s a big if, but even if Rivera is just an average outfielder he’ll still represent a significant upgrade over Gary Matthews Jr., who is finally being relegated to bench duty (and not a moment too soon).

It’s also going to be interesting to see how Vlad Guerrero plays in a contract year, if Mike Napoli can live up to high expectations, and if Kendrick can finally fulfill his promise.

Added: Bobby Abreu, Brian Fuentes, John Garland.

Lost: Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Garrett Anderson.

Projected lineup:

3B: Chone Figgins2B: Howie Kendrick
DH: Bobby Abreu
RF: Vlad Guerero
CF: Torii Hunter
C: Mike Napoli
LF: Juan Rivera
1B: Kendry Morales
SS: Erick Aybar

Projected rotation and closer:

SP1: John Lackey
SP2: Ervin Santana
SP3: Joe Saunders
SP4: Jered Weaver
SP5: Kelvim Escobar

CL: Brian Fuentes

Grade: C

The Angels have gotten a lot worse at 1B, but have improved their DH/OF depth by signing Abreu and letting Anderson walk. The net result is an offense that Baseball Prospectus predicts will score 13 more runs in 2009. So why are the Angels predicted to win four fewer games? Simply put, the team’s pitching isn’t expected to be as lucky as it was in 2008. Saunders, in particular, is projected to fall off a cliff. BP projects he’ll throw 40 fewer innings and his ERA will go up by more than a full run. Saunders’ 2008 babip, an unsustainably low .267, probably accounts for that projection. But Angels fans can take solace in the fact that their team is still a favorite to win the worst division in baseball and their biggest competition, the Oakland A’s, have a slew of question marks.

- Hot Offseason Action index -

The Yankees signed Mark Teixeira today and the effects of the signing were wide ranging. Let’s take a look at who benefitted and who didn’t.

The Winners

The Yankees: They got the best first baseman on the market and, outside of Albert Pujols, probably the best first baseman in baseball. Teixiera will represent a major upgrade over prospective first baseman Nick Swisher, who can now be moved to a corner outfield spot (where his average power will be more forgivable). Or, the Yankees can trade him for something useful.

Teixeira: OK, so signing with the Yankees is horribly predictable. But Teixeira got a huge contract, a no-trade clause and he’ll play for a winner. That’s a pretty good deal. Something tells me he’ll be happy he didn’t sign with the Nationals.

Derek Lowe: The Red Sox say missing out on Teixeira won’t impact their search for more pitching. But you’ve got to think that some of the money they had earmarked for Teixeira could be spent on Lowe. Right now, it looks like the Mets are the only serious bidder for Lowe’s services. Getting the Red Sox involved could spark a bidding war that would culminate in an expensive contract.

Billy Beane: The Oakland GM is trying to field a winner in 2009. He took a hit when Rafael Furcal spurned his very generous four-year offer, but now that the Angels have missed out on Teixeira they are looking even more beatable. Beane must smell blood. Will he sign Adam Dunn or Jason Giambi and really put some pressure on the Halos?

Scott Boras: Now that his biggest client has signed, maybe Boras can shift his attention to the other five gajillion free agents he represents.

The Losers

Manny Ramirez: Now that the Yankees have signed Teixeira they’re extremely unlikely to sign Manny. Who is going to give Ramirez the longterm contract he wants? Probably nobody (unless Ned Coletti goes on a bender).

Red Sox: They missed out on a player that would allow them to vastly improve their middle of the order production. Moreover, that player signed with their chief rival. Burn.

The Angels: Who will play first base for Los Angeles next season? Who will provide protection for Vlad? (No, Tori Hunter. Not you. Please sit down.) This could be a blessing in disguise for the Angels, as Adam Dunn could be a great addition and will require fewer dollars and years.

Word on the street yesterday was that the Boston Red Sox had offered free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira an 8-year, $175-180MM contract. Today, it sounds like Boston’s offer was closer to $165-170MM. The Angels’ rumored offer has been greater than $160 but less than $180, while some speculate that the Nationals have ponied up $200MM. All the same, everyone seems to be offering 8 years — and agent Scott Boras seems to be holding out for a $185MM offer from a team that doesn’t suck.

Recently, I kvetched about a feeling of “inflation” in baseball — Mark Teixeira’s good, but is he really a $200MM guy? I don’t happen to think so. But what do you think?

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Adam Dunn could be the bargain of the offseason

Due to a scheduling snaffu (and Nick not reading his email) both he and I wrote posts about what the Angels need. Since we largely agree when it comes to the halos’ shortcomings, I won’t bore you with the post that I wrote. But I will further one point that he made.

Both Nick and I agree that Mark Teixeira probably isn’t worth all the money and years he’ll demand. Nick pointed out that there are cheaper options out there. Let me suggest one in particular. The Angels should sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now, as he may come surprisingly cheap. How cheap? Recently, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick talked to a couple of officials who suggested Dunn might have to settle for a contract in the three-year, $36MM range. And today, Buster Olney says while “there had been talk during the summer of Adam Dunn getting $15 million a year this winter, now his salary range might be little more than half of that.”

If that’s true, that’s an absolute steal. Think about it — $12MM over three years is the same contract Jose Guillen got. $8MM a year is Adam Eaton money. I know Dunn strikes out a ton and he can’t catch a cold, but he’s a mortal lock to hit 40 homers (in the last four seasons he’s hit exactly 40). The Angels need to sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now. Right now. Go! Sign him!

The one thing that is keeping the Angels from another World Series title more than anything – more than even their sad devotion to Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. – is their inability to win in the postseason.  The Angels won 100 games last year in the regular season, but flamed out yet again in the first round of the playoffs, getting routed by the Red Sox.

I don’t think the Angels have to worry too much about the regular season.  Their division only has four teams, and the other three – the A’s, Rangers, and Mariners – are all in varying states of disarray ranging from total to utter.

Doitdoitdoit! You know you want to!

I also don’t think the Angels need to resign their impending free agents.  Texiera is good, but 1B is the easiest hole to fill and at the price he is going to command he will not be worth it.  K-Rod will also not be worth the price and the years required, given his visibly declining skills. And I don’t think I even have to get into why its unnecessary to try to resign guys like Jon Garland or Anderson.

No, what the Angels should spend all their money on is the one quantity that you need more than any other in the playoffs, which is pitching acery.  I strongly advise that they take all of the money they save on K-Rod and Texiera, plus add in the money Arte Moreno always manages to dig out of his couch every year to sign some lame veteran, and use it to sign Derek Lowe and CC Sabathia.

Sabathia is the best pitcher on the market, and Lowe is a near-ace who rarely gets injured.  Slot them in front of Joe Saunders, John Lackey, and Jered Weaver and you will have the ass-kickinest rotation anybody ever saw.

No need to sign position players. You can just fill in holes with all those juicy position player prospects you kept blocking for all those years with Gary Matthews.  You know – your Brandon Woodses, Reggie Willitses, and Kendry Morali.

Now that the rest of the AL West sucks so hard, this is a golden opportunity for you.  You don’t even have to be that good to win 95 games in the regular season, so just build your roster for the postseason.

- What They Need Index -

A friend of mine–a Red Sox fan friend–just texted me from the Sox-Angels game in Anaheim. How did he score tickets to ALDS Game 1, you might ask yourself? Good question.

Well, it turns out that he walked up to the ticket window….

And paid them 40 bucks….

Two hours before game time.

Bite me.

There are some concepts in which I believe strongly and try to express here on this blog (It’s not a blog! Yes it is!). But I fail miserably in doing so because I couldn’t do it concisely and poignantly.

Hello, ladies.

Thankfully, there are others who are far better at this than I am:

When a team adds a player like (Mark) Teixeira, the general assumption is that the team has to play better, because he’ll play better than whoever he’s replaced and everyone else will play exactly as they’ve been playing. But of course the real world doesn’t work that way. Some guys will play about the same, some will play better, some will play worse. In this particular case, it’s pretty clear that the guys playing worse have outnumbered the guys playing better. Or perhaps that the guys playing worse have been worse than the guys playing better have been better.

This is what Rob Neyer wrote in his blog this morning (ESPN Insider only) concerning the Angels and their record since adding Mark Teixeira. And it’s a paragraph that’s both difficult to follow yet easy at the same time. But it makes total sense.

As Neyer points out in the entry, prior to trading for Tex, the Angels were 66-40. But despite adding the big bat who has produced very well since coming to Anaheim, they’ve had a worse winning percentage (22-17).

And our inability to recognize the fact that human performances, especially in baseball, don’t follow linear progressions is something that drives me nuts at times. We can’t simply “add five more wins” to a previous year’s team total because they’ve acquired an ace pitcher and call it a projection. Doing so assumes that everyone else on the team will perform exactly the same, which is something that NEVER happens.

So what does this rant have to do with anything that’s going on in baseball right now? Well, not much, really. It’s just a point that was made by Neyer that I wholeheartedly support but couldn’t articulate in past posts.

And besides, I’m terrified to write anything positive about the Mets right now.