This is one of a series of posts in which we eviscerate each team’s lambastable offseason blunders and laud their miraculous hot-stove coups.

The Angels again made the playoffs in 2007, and again were escorted to an early exit. Last year, the Anaheim squad did a great job of making the most of what they had—speed. Taking advantage of every opportunity to go first-to-third on a single, their aggressive baserunning served them well during the regular season when their small-ball style of play masked their lack of power hitting. But the injured Anaheim ballclub did not last long in October, and scarcely had the season ended when the Angels front office got to work.

In November, they acquired pitcher Jon Garland from the White Sox for Gold Glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera and cash. A few days later, they signed free agent center fielder Torii Hunter, one of the gems in an otherwise weak market. However, Hunter’s only an average fielder and is already 32. Plus, this gave the Angels a glut of outfielders: Hunter, Gary Matthews Jr., Garret Anderson, Vladimir Guerrero, Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits. (Could they have made a deal for Miguel Cabrera with the Marlins instead? The world will never know. On the one hand, the Angels’ farm system, though still good, isn’t what it once was—but on the other, the Marlins didn’t get nearly enough for Cabrera anyway. The two sides did some talking, but the deal fell apart.) Those of us expecting the Angels to continue their frenzy of activity with a move to exchange one of those outfielders for an infielder or a relief pitcher or, well, anything, were disappointed. If the Angels can’t find a way to get Reggie’s .391 OBP and speedy legs into the lineup somehow, they’ll be missing out on his productivity while also diminishing his trade value. I would rather see him start in left field over Gary Matthews, Jr. any day. (Well, any day except for when the Angels are playing the Red Sox, of course.)

So it is that the Angels will begin 2008 hoping that Erick Aybar can fill in for Orlando Cabrera. The 24-year old Aybar is the definition of a light-hitting infielder, though his offense should improve a bit once he’s getting regular at-bats. While he doesn’t have much experience at shortstop in the majors, it was his usual position through the minor leagues, so I don’t foresee a problem there. Plus, the Angels will be able to rotate their outfielders through the DH slot, keeping their bats in the lineup while giving their legs a rest. And Torii Hunter will provide the long-needed protection for Guerrero in the lineup. Finally, the addition of Jon Garland will give the Angels another solid arm behind staff ace John Lackey, which they’re no doubt doubly glad of now that 18-game winner Escobar has reported to camp with a sore shoulder.

Acquisitions: Torii Hunter, Jon Garland

Losses: Orlando Cabrera, Dallas McPherson, Bartolo Colon

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

1. 3B, Chone Figgins, .393 OBP, 41 SB
2. LF, Reggie Willits, .391 OBP, 27 SB
3. RF, Vladimir Guerrero, 27 HR, .403 OBP
4. CF, Torii Hunter, 28 HR, .287 AVG
5. DH, Garret Anderson, 16 HR, .297 AVG
6. 1B, Casey Kotchman, .372 OBP
7. 2B, Howie Kendrick, .322 AVG
8. C, Mike Napoli, 10 HR, .351 OBP
9. SS, Erick Aybar, 1 HR, .237 AVG

SP1 John Lackey, 3.01 ERA, 224.0 IP
SP2 Kelvim Escobar, 3.40 ERA, 195.2 IP
SP3 Jered Weaver, 3.91 ERA, 161.0 IP
SP4 Jon Garland, 4.23 ERA, 208.1 IP
SP5 Joe Saunders, 4.44 ERA, 107.1 IP

CL Francisco Rodriguez, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Grade: A-

The Angels accomplished two major goals this offseason: acquiring a dependable starting pitcher and picking up a bat for the middle of their lineup. Their roster heading into 2008 is deep, with last year’s injuries having given some of their younger players and utility guys more experience. Their rotation looks solid—Weaver and Saunders are both young pitchers who should see a step-up in workload this year. Their lineup is stacked, too. My only reservation ist that Torii Hunter might not have been the best possible guy to get to protect Vladimir and, that by acquiring him, the team now has too many outfielders. But if the biggest problem a team has is too many good players, that’s an enviable problem to have. The Angels should make it to the playoffs again this year, and, if they stay healthy, have the roster to get a bit further this time.

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

The Seattle Mariners - Erik Bedard

The good folks over at the USS Mariner wrote a post this week suggesting that the Mariners’ pursuit of Erik Bedard is foolhardy and what they actually need is more offense, not more pitching.

But I disagree.

The Mariners actually had the sixth highest OPS in the American League last season, behind only the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, and Devil Rays - all teams full of real mashers. Four of those five teams were legitimate playoff contenders, and the Rays would have been if they had had even league average starting pitching.

No, what was really the Mariners’ downfall last season was pitching, specifically starting pitching. The Mariners were 10th out of 14 AL teams in ERA last season, and even that mark was only that high thanks to a passable showing by the bullpen - the Mariners starting pitchers were actually 12th out of 14 in ERA, ahead of only the execrable Baltimore and Tampa Bay squads.

What the M’s really need is starters who can put up quality innings, and replacing Horacio Ramirez and his 7.16 ERA with Erik Bedard and his 3.16 ERA would go far toward addressing this need.

Anaheim Angels of Anaheim - A power hitter

The Endless Quest Continues. The Angels have been searching for a legitimate power hitter to pair with Vlad Guerrero for years now - the piece which many feel is the only thing keeping them from another World Series title. Last year they threw offers at everyone they could, but the best they could come up with was Gary Matthews, Jr. This year they chased hard after Miguel Cabrerra, only to have the Tigers pull the rug out, and then panicked and overpaid for Torii Hunter despite already having 5 other Major League quality outfielders on the roster. Hunter does have a bit of power, but he’s not really quite the piece the Angels were looking for, and they continue to search for better options such as exploring a trade for Paul Konerko.

Ultimately, the answer may come from within if Juan Rivera can return to his 2006 form after battling through a broken leg last year, or if Casey Kotchman continues to blossom at the plate. But even without that power hitter they are still questing after, the Angels are otherwise totally stacked up and down the lineup, in the rotation, and in the bullpen, and should continue to dominate the AL West standings for years to come.

Oakland A’s - Takers for Joe Blanton and Huston Street

It wouldn’t really be fair to evaluate Billy Beane on what he’s not trying to do, which is win this year, so I’m going to evaluate him on what he obviously is trying to do, which is build a team which can contend in 2010, having already shipped out Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, and Mark Kotsay. So with that in mind, what the A’s need to do is find teams who are willing to overpay for middle-of-the-road starter Joe Blanton and upper-tier closer Huston Street.

Waiting until 2010, or perhaps more realistically 2011, is going to eat up the prime years of Blanton and Street, so even though they are cheap there is no real reason to keep them around if Beane can swing a trade on a down year for free agents while their value is uber-high due to how cheap they are and how many years away from free agency they are.

Some commentators (including myself), have wondered if Beane couldn’t have gotten a bit more for Haren and/or Swisher, but in any case if Beane can move Blanton and Street for some more high-grade prospects, he is going to have a truly monstrous stash of talented young players set to be ready for the big time by 2010 or 2011.

Texas Rangers - Surprise, Surprise, Starting Pitching

It seems like the Texas Rangers have been in desperate need of some real starting pitchers since the formation of the Earth. Yeah, I know there wasn’t technically any baseball back then, but even so the Rangers somehow still found a way to be last in the league in ERA.

This team has a lot of other holes, but there is nothing like the black hole that is the starting staff, a black hole which seems to grow bigger every year. I almost didn’t have to look, but I did anyway, and sure enough, the Rangers’ starting staff was dead last in the American League with a horrific 5.50 ERA last season (even worse than the Devil Rays!), and the team has done absolutely nothing to address this need.

This year, the Rangers will run out the exact same staff that compiled that record last season. Just to give you an idea, Brandon McCarthy led all Rangers starters with a 4.87 ERA. Ooof.

Hector Lavoe, the great Puerto Rican salsa crooner once sang “your love is like yesterday’s news,” (Tu amor es como un periódico de ayer) and in this day and age, yesterday’s news (actually, this past monday’s news) should seem like a teenage fling to the middle-aged White Sox GM, Kenny Williams.

You see, right after trading for Orlando Cabrera, Williams was on the verge of landing Torri Hunter. The Sun-Times “broke” a story last Monday that reported:

Sources both in the Sox organization and the camp of free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter have told the Sun-Times that the two sides could be signing a contract within the week.

In other words, while it appeared Williams was playing checkers in the Garland for Cabrera deal, he was actually playing chess, staying moves ahead of the game.

Before I try to offer my opinion on the “reporter” with some dry, witty, sarcastic remark, lets remember that the reporter in question is Joe Cowley, who once famously voted Derek Jeter 6th in his MVP ballot, contributing to Morneau getting the trophy, with Jeter not far back in the polls.

Let’s just say I will think twice next time I read something penned by Cowley.

We now know, of course, that the Angels had their finger on the dial right after hanging up the trade-talk phone with the ChiSox. And were that much quicker. And those chess moves that Williams was so erroneously praised for, might actually have him in check.

Without Hunter, Williams’ center field options in the free agent market are reduced to Andruw Jones and former South-sider Aaron Rowand – and Sox fans are torn.

Personally, I can’t ignore Jones’ horrendous season this year and I cannot possibly imagine Rowand commanding less than $75 million over 4 years. However legendary his status among Sox fans is, I doubt Rowand is really worth that much.

Let’s think about this for a minute. It’s rumored that the Angels beat out Williams by $20 mill. Which means he had offered a 4-year/$70 deal. I doubt he offered a 5th year; Williams favorite flavor in contracts is of the 3-year-kind. And now that the Sox shelled $19 mil per 4 years for Scott Linebrink, I can only assume Williams decided to spend some his CF money on relief pitching.

In reality Williams has a few more options. There’s always Kosuke Fukudome, who, according to UmpBump’s very own Paul Moro, will command around $10 mill over 4 years. (Considering Hunter’s inflated price tag, Fuku’s price tag suddenly jumped to about $30mill/4years.

And then there are the prospects. For the past four years, the White Sox have had promising outfield prospects that fizzled once they made it to the majors.

Consider this: Last time the White Sox signed a Japanese player (Iguchi in ‘05), they won the World Series. Last time they failed to move their underachieving outfielders and/or upgrade via free-agency, well, this season happened.

Williams has already released World Series hero Scott Podsednik. Can I pull a Joe Cowley and say he’ll go after Fukudome instead of Jones/Rowand?

Only time can tell.

It’s Thanksgiving and that means that you’re going to be subjected to any number of sports columns about what people are thankful for.

Me, I’m thankful for the Torii Hunter signing, which gives us something to talk about on this fine national holiday other than the weather, the turkey and A-Rod.

From ESPN.com:

Outfielder Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels reached a preliminary agreement Wednesday night on a five-year contract thought to be worth $90 million.

That’s $18 million a year for Mr. Hunter. Not too shabby.

I’m also thankful for Vegas Watch, who got up early this morning to break down the Torii Hunter signing, thus sparing me the trouble of looking up statistics. You, Vegas Watch. You!

Hunter’s career OBP is .324, and his career OPS+ is 104. He’ll be 33 in July. He looks good out there, but by any metric Hunter was an average fielder this year; THT has him at 0, BP at -1. Only the leaders and trailers have been published from Dewan’s system, but he’s in neither, which means he was between +3 and -9.

It looks as though Hunter is an overrated fielder coming off a career year at the age of 32. This seems like a pretty solid formula for someone to get more money than they’re worth, does it not?

As Vegas Watch points out, this leaves the Angels with a surplus of outfielders — six, if you’re counting at home: Hunter, Gary Matthews Jr., Garret Anderson, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits.

Where will they all play? Here’s what the LA Times says:

Hunter, who has excellent speed, instincts and athletic ability, will play center field for the Angels, and Manager Mike Scioscia said Matthews would rotate through the corner outfield spots, and right fielder Vladimir Guerrero and left fielder Garret Anderson would rotate through the designated hitter spot.

It’s hard to imagine that the Angels are going to pay Matthews $10 million a year to be a bench player. But that’s what it looks like is going to happen.

You’ve got to think there will be more to come. You’ve got to think that some of that outfield glut will be traded — possibly for Miguel Cabrera.

It’s not secret that baseball GM’s have preferred business partners, and if we were to look at White Sox GM Kenny Williams’ track record, we could almost bet on the kind of trades he’d make.The past three years, for instance, he’s traded a starting pitcher (Garcia), a number of relievers (Gio Gonzalez, among others), a center fielder (Rowand), and a second baseman (Iguchi) to the Phillies in four different occasions.

Then there’s the knack for picking up former Yankee starters (Contreras, Hernandez, Vazquez, Wells).

One team Williams has negotiated with in the past, the Angels, just became another notch in his trade gun belt.

Williams sent Jon Garland to the Angels for short stop Orlando Cabrera and some cash.

By trading Garland to the Angels, Williams finally rid his team of one of its most dependable and consistent starters in the past three seasons to the team that really wanted him. As some of you may know, a Garland-to-Angels deal was in place in 2002 for a then all-star, Darin Erstad.

Of course, Erstad was picked up the ChiSox last year when the Angels wouldn’t find a spot for him.

But really, the crux of this trade is the cash the Angels are sending along with the original OC, Orlando Cabrera.

The White Sox have an opening at center, and there have been rumblings that Williams wants to pry Hunter off the Twinkies’ baggies in the Metrodome. (Williams does have a history of acquiring players once belonging to division rivals - See Colon, Bartolo). Here’s hoping we sign someone other than Hunter. Bringing back Rowand would be nice, but I feel he’d ask for too much money.Of course, there’s Andrwu Jones…hmm, then again, let’s just move on.

In reality, this deal was a must for Williams. The Tigers have already pulled two big trades with nary a month since the last out of the World Series.

Is Cabrera an upgrade over Uribe at short? Yes. Did the White Sox just sign Uribe to a $4.5 mil one-year-contract? Yes. Will Uribe continue to underachieve now that he’s bound for the utility role no veteran covets? Most Def.

Cabrera, however, is in the final year of his contract, which means the Sox might be simply be renting him for 2008. Which could also mean he’ll have a career year.

And then, what’s in it for the Angels?

After emaling back and forth, two UmpBump staffers said it best:

Coley Ward: I’m guessing Garland’s addition will allow the Angels to part with Colon and Ervin Santana.

Their staff would then look like this: Jered Weaver, Garland, Lackey, Escobar and Saunders. Nasty, nasty nasty.

But who will play SS? Chone? I bet they sign Eckstein.

Paul Moro: Not sure if I’d call Joe Saunders “nasty”. He’s pretty damned hittable. But Garland should have an easier time away from The Cell and away from the AL Central.

And while I can’t underestimate the knack for MLB scouts/GMs to overestimate Eckstein, I’d like to think that people realize the guy’s a pretty bad SS. Granted, 2007 was his worst defensive year, but at his age I don’t see it improving much year-to-year. He has the arm of a first baseman for god’s sake. To me, he’s a utility middle-infielder.

Maybe they’ll put Chone there, but he’d be terrible. Maybe they still see Brandon Wood as a SS?

Coley Ward: Paul, I agree that Saunders isn’t “nasty”. But he’s got pretty good numbers for a number five starter. And Weaver, Lackey, Garland, Escobar is a really good top four.

Like most of the blogosphere, I think Eckstein is wildly overrated. And I think the fact that he’s chasing a four year $36 million is hilarious. But I also think he’s the kind of player MIke Socia loves and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in Anaheim.

This may not be a game everyone is interested in playing, but let’s face it: the World Series is over, the Red Sox won, and readers of this particular blog do not need further discussion to know how glorious and awesome the Red Sox are.

Now it is time to focus on the offseason and next year, and Item 1 on the agenda is A-Rod, thanks to the stunt he and Boras pulled last, announcing his opt out during game four of the World Series.

So let’s go ahead and start handicapping where A-Rod might end up…

3-1 New York Mets

Omar Minaya and the Mets are the reigning kings of offering massive, mindblowingly large contracts to whoever are the biggest names on the market at the time - just think back to Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Delgado. Not only can the Mets definitely afford A-Rod already, but they are getting a new stadium and lots of new revenue in 2009. Plus, they’ve shown interest in A-Rod several times in the past, and you know that Minaya is going to want to do something big this offseason to appease the fans and the back pages after the team’s historically epic collapse down the stretch.

5-1: Anaheim Angels of Anaheim

Arte Moreno has shown repeatedly that he is the kind of crazy individual owner that will throw caution to the winds and order the signing of a big-name star to a ridiculous contract that a team under corporate ownership would be less likely to offer. He is much the same sort of gunslinging cowboy owner Tom Hicks was when he signed A-Rod to his last contract in Texas, before Hicks was reined in by his investment partners. Angels attendance and revenue growth have both been phenomenal in recent years, so they can definitely afford A-Rod, and with the way they use their players as interchangable parts, they can easily shuffle people around to make room at third base.

7-1: Boston Red Sox

Flush with even more cash from their World Series victory and facing a possible hole at third base with the free agency of Mike Lowell, it would be easy to imagine the Red Sox going after A-Rod. Although this would definitely anger many Sox fans, a certain subsection of Red Sox Nation has been crying out for the Sox to get A-Rod all season long, and Theo has shown in the past that he is willing to ignore the desires of the fans and go get long-running obsessions like Drew and Lugo. Considering how close the Sox came to acquiring A-Rod in 2004, it would be folly to assume that that option is not in Theo’s mind right now. I still think we are more likely to see Lowell manning the hot corner in Fenway next year, but if he dithers and doesn’t sign pretty much the first contract offer made to him, it might well be A-Rod instead.

9-1 Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are suddenly flush with cash the past few years, having cleverly marketed and leveraged their new ballpark, and owner Mike Illitch has shown that he is not at all afraid to take huge gambles and blow massive amounts of that cash on players nobody else is even trying to sign, such as Magglio Ordonez and his injured knee, or Ivan Rodriguez and his suspect back. Both of those deals worked out rather nicely for Illitch, so if for some reason all the other teams hesitate too long to sign A-Rod due to excessive contract demands or character questions, don’t be surprised if Illitch swoops in and make A-Rod a ridiculous offer even he can’t refuse.

11-1: San Francisco Giants

With Barry Bonds getting the boot, the Giants may well be looking for a new megastar to keep butts in the seats at Pac Bell, er, SBC, er Whatever-it’s-called-now Park. Their overpaying for Barry Zito last year certainly suggests that they are thinking along those kinds of lines. Plus, San Francisco fans have already proven that they are more than willing to embrace a superstar that the rest of the nation hates.

13-1: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are not the first name that usually gets mentioned when people talk about where A-Rod might end up, and he is certainly not the kind of player that you would expect to be popular with the Philadelphia fans, but the Phillies have been on the edge of something big for years now and have been looking for something to get them over the hump, so Philadelphia might actually be the team who would be helped the most by adding A-Rod. The Phillies can definitely afford A-Rod, especially with their still-new stadium and several millions in contracts coming off the books over the next two years (including the $7 million they were still paying to Jim Thome this past season), and they don’t have a strong incumbent at third base (as Wes Helms could easily be shunted to the bench). Plus, as a baseball fan, it would kind of be exciting to see A-Rod added to an infield that already has 3 MVP types in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, creating what would indisputably be the greatest infield quartet ever assembled.

15-1: Houston Astros

Faced with a weak NL Central there for the taking and a gaping hole at third base, the Astros are another team which could really be helped immediately by adding A-Rod. They’ve already shown a willingness to drop ridiculous dollars on big-name star power with their pioneering the whole pro-rated Clemens contract thing, and Drayton McClane is the kind of owner with the actual authority to wake up on the other side of the bed tomorrow morning, decide he wants A-Rod, and make it happen. Plus it’s Texas, and Texans like big things.

17-1: New York Yankees

Common sense says that despite their repeated sworn statements that they would not pursue A-Rod if he opted out, the Yankees are the team that most can afford A-Rod, and perhaps the team that most desperately needs him, given their current state of disarray, so they should therefore eat some crow and humbly go back to the table with Boras. But I don’t think this is going to happen, because guys like Randy Levine and Hank Steinbrenner strike me as a men possessed of large amounts of pride, and not particularly excessive amounts of common sense.

20-1: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers always get mentioned, because we know they can afford A-Rod if they really want to, and plus, they have a huge hole at third base right now. But we have to remember that after the whole JD Drew opt-out thing, Ned Colletti has a huge hate-on for Scott Boras, to the point where he refused to talk to Boras for several months and foolishly didn’t offer Greg Maddux arbitration (thereby losing free draft picks), just because Maddux was a Boras client. Although Colletti has gotten over the worst of his hatred at this point, he is unlikely to have much patience for Boras’s negotiating tactics unless he gets a direct order from Frank McCourt or something.

25-1: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs showed last offseason that they are willing to drop big bucks on free agents. The don’t really have a need at third base, but shortstop has been a black hole for sometime now, so they could try to entice A-Rod with the chance to move back to the premier defensive position on the diamond. That said, one get’s the feeling that the Cubs blew their wad on Soriano last year and especially with the sale of the team getting a lot closer now, they are less likely to give Hendry the free reign to make such a huge financial commitment

30-1 or higher: Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates

Nobody saw the Texas Rangers coming last time, so these four teams are my dark horse candidates this time around. The Orioles have always shown a propensity to make sporatic, unpredictable, and irrational plunges into the free agent market, but what they really need is pitching. The Washington Nationals don’t seem to be getting mentioned much, but they are getting a new stadium in a few years, and might see A-Rod as the perfect guy to have as their centerpiece going into their new digs. The White Sox could probably afford A-Rod, although Kenny Williams has not shown much of a tendency to go after guys like this in the past. I’m throwing the Pirates in here, because the Pirates as an organization are certifiably bat-shit crazy. Nobody has been able to understand what they are doing for the past 15 years, and nobody can ever predict what they are going to do next.

I’m a bit late. The game’s on the top of the second already and the Red Sox are already up by a run thanks to a Youkilis home run.

I did catch half of the first inning, and a coupla things came to mind right off the bat.

* As Sarah pointed out, the Angels will run. Figgins, while on second, chose to run on contact with Vlad Guerrero at the plate. The force-out and ensuing strike out of Garret Anderson ends the inning.

* Speaking of which, what the hell is on Anderson’s right eye? The TBS guys say it’s pink-eye. I know for a fact that doesn’t affect his eyesight, but still.

* That Hank Aaron commercial sure seems to ignore (or fly in the face of) the new single season home run champ.

Read the rest of this entry »

That’s right. I’m predicting that the Sox will wrap this ALDS series up in four games. (Actually, I think they could do it in three with the injuries the Angels are facing right now, but I’m hedging my bets). The seven factors that will influence in this series (and which team has the edge in each) is the subject of this week’s Metro column.

This was a tricky column for me to write. I jotted the seven factors (starting pitching, bullpen, closer, defense, baserunning, overall offense, and power hitting) down in my notebook and then set out to evaluate each team independently. I was very much surprised by my findings: in every category, the teams are either even or the Red Sox have an edge. I struggled with writing such an apparently biased column, especially since I’m an unabashed Boston homer—would anyone take me seriously if I didn’t give the Halos an edge somewhere? But in the end, I had to go with what the data was telling me. To be sure, the Angels are a very good team, and in the playoffs anything can happen—a five-game series seems especially keyed to the possibility of upsets. But I was surprised at the edge the Red Sox have heading into this series, which starts tonight.

The most controversial call I made in the article was giving the Red Sox an edge in baserunning. Every talking head I’ve heard so far has handed this category to the Angels with ease. It seems like common sense. After all, the Angels love to steal. As a team, they’re second in the league in steals at 139 (all those double-steals helped them out here). Boston, with 96, is seventh. And Boston has never been known as a fast team. But as I looked at the numbers, the way the media is handing the Angels the edge in baserunning began to seem less like common sense and more like laziness.

With Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, and Jacoby Ellsbury on the team, Boston’s slow days are over—at least temporarily. And when I looked at each team’s stolen base percentage, Boston had a huge advantage over Anaheim. Boston is actually first in the league with an 80% success rate, while Anaheim is eleventh, with a 72% success rate. (These numbers have changed slightly since I wrote the column—not sure what’s up with that, since the regular season is over. Thanks, ESPN.com! But the basic comparison is the same.) Smarter people than I have argued that, on an individual level, a player who can’t maintain a 75% stolen base percentage shouldn’t  be stealing bases, because he’s actually hurting his team. Where the Angels are concerned, however, stealing makes up for a lack of power hitting on their part. They clearly know how to get on base: they’re third on OBP and fourth in the league in hits. But they’re fifth in doubles (Boston is first) and eleventh in triples (and they’re a supposedly speedy team! even “slow” Boston ranks sixth in this category). When you look at home runs, the Angels are twelfth in the AL, ahead of only Minnesota and Kansas City. Clearly, Mike Scioscia feels that small ball is the way for this team to go—and it’s gotten them this far.

However, Boston’s better stolen base percentage tells me that baserunning could be a factor that tilts in favor of the Red Sox this postseason. They’re not stealing to make up for a lack of extra-base hits. They’re stealing from a position of strength, not a position of competitive weakness. They’re stealing situationally, strategically—and successfully. And that makes them more effective baserunners in the playoffs.

“Fuck this place.”

That was what Anaheim pitcher John Lackey said this afternoon, in the first of two games today in Fenway, as the game started to slip away from him in just the first inning. Boston’s No. 8 hitter, Doug Mirabelli (usually knuckeballer Tim Wakefield’s specialty catcher, but getting the start so that Varitek could catch Beckett in tonight’s game) lofted a towering fly ball to left field. It was only the first inning, and Dougie’s fly ball scored the inning’s fifth run (the Sox would have six when all was said and done). In any other ballpark, that fly ball would have been out number three. In Fenway, it was a wall-ball double. As the camera cut to Lackey for his reaction, his lips were clearly readable.

The Red Sox might end up wishing Mirabelli had flied out—as he rounded the third base bag (when No. 9 hitter, bench warmer Alex Cora lined another double), he injured his calf and ended up limping across home plate and promptly into the clubhouse. Varitek was squatting behind the dish when the second inning opened. This could end up being a day of even crazier roster moves than originally anticipated—Wily Mo Pena was dealt this morning to the Washington Nationals for cash and a player to be named. (Ouch. That’s what 450-foot homers will get you when you can’t play defense and have no plate discipline.) That made room on the roster for this afternoon’s starter, Clay Buchholz, who was then going to be sent back to Pawtucket after the game to make room for centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who would play tonight. Ellsbury, it was rumored, would then be sent down to make room for Bobby Kielty, who would play tomorrow’s game. But if Mirabelli is seriously injured, what do the Red Sox do? In the short term, it could be a very long day for Jason Varitek.

What will the Sox do if they need a catcher ASAP? Even if they asked for a catcher from Washington, players-to-be-named aren’t usually known for their caliber. Their catcher in Pawtucket is George Kottaras, hitting .233 with 6 homers this season. Last season he did well enough in single A to earn a mid-season promotion to the double A club. He’s not renowned for his defense but he does have experience catching knuckleballs—which, in Boston’s point of view, is the single most important quality in any backup catcher. Anyways, for now I’m keeping my fingers crossed the Dougie just tweaked his calf and can play in tonight’s game, or possibly tomorrow’s.

But the story of the first half of today’s doubleheader was supposed to be Clay Buccholz, a 23-year old righty among the gems in Boston’s farm system making his major league debut today.  He has a good fastball (which he still needs to remember to keep down from time to time) that tops out at about 96 or 97, but which he usually throws at about 92 or 94. But don’t be fooled. His real strength is with his breaking stuff. His curveball has generated some heavy drool in the greater Boston area—its 12-to-6 motion is so big that it sometimes ends up outside the strikezone. But it’s his changeup that helped him out today. It’s about 15 mph slower than his heat, but he throws it with the same intensity and arm-action. Nasty.

In the spirit of hot prospects, the text of last week’s Metro GameDay column on the subject is after the jump. (For the “Futures at Fenway” game, where the double-A Portland SeaDogs play the single-A Lowell Spinners at Fenway Park; GameDay is Metro’s free baseball program distributed at Fenway before every home game.)

And for those of you who hate Julio Lugo (which seems to be most folks here at UmpBump) here’s today’s GameDay piece.

Read the rest of this entry »

Did anyone else notice that the ending of yesterday’s game between the Yankees and the Angels bore quite a resemblance to a certain poem of some note?  The resemblance was especially clear to me upon reading the article about it in the LA Times.

I felt inspired to take a crack at putting the final moments of the game into verse, and here’s what I came up with:

# # #

The outlook wasn’t brilliant for the Gotham nine that day:
The score stood four to two, with but one inning left to play.
And now with K-Rod on the mound, the Angels in the lead,
There seemed but little chance the Yanks could get the runs they’d need.

A straggling few got up to go in deep despair. The rest
Clung to that hope which springs eternal in the human breast;
They thought, if only “Captain Clutch” could get a whack at that -
We’d put up even money, now, with Jeter at the bat.

But Abreu preceded Jeter, plus Posada, Cabrera, and Damon,
That the Yankees’ hopes were slim was clear, even to a baseball layman.
So upon that stricken multitude grim melancholy sat,
For there seemed but little chance of Jeter’s getting to the bat.

Abreu walked, no big surprise, Posada’s single bored them,
But then Damon’s groundout moved them up, and Melky’s sac fly scored one!
And when the dust had lifted, and they saw what came to be,
There was Posada hugging third, and the score just four to three!

Then from 10,000 throats and more there rose a lusty roar;
It rumbled through Manhattan, it washed the Jersey shore;
It echoed off the Hudson and the fans could hardly wait,
For Jeter, mighty Jeter, was advancing to the plate.

There was practiced ease in Jeter’s manner as he took his rips;
All businesslike was Jeter’s mein, no smile on Jeter’s lips.
And when, despite the pressure, Jeter’s face betrayed no fear.
No stranger in the crowd could doubt ’twas Jeter they did cheer.

The announcers spouted Jeter man-love, recounting all his stats,
His famous flip to nail Giambi, and all his clutch at-bats;
.488 with runners on, a figure mighty fine,
Runners on base and two men out? An amazing .609!

They gazed in admiration as up to the plate he pranced;
They screamed their adulation as he dug into his stance.
And now as K-Rod toed the mound, the ball held at his hip,
Defiance shone in Jeter’s eyes, a sneer curled Jeter’s lip.

Eight times Rodriguez kicks and deals, firing to the plate full-bore
But Jeter works the count to full, and then fouls off three more!
Fastballs, 96 at least, and sliders on the black,
But Jeter keeps on hanging tough, his focus never slacks.

That sneer once more curls Jeters’s lip, the time for toying’s past;
‘Twas plain the next pitch K-Rod threw would be the ballgame’s last.
And now the hurler holds the ball, and now he lets it fly,
Now Jeter swings, his swing is true, ball soaring through the sky!

Oh, somewhere in this dark, dark world, the rain is pouring down;
Hearts are being broken, and somewhere people frown,
Oh, somewhere men are weeping, and somewhere clouds are black;
But all true fans are smiling now—Jeter flied out to the track!