AJC columnist Mark Bradley writes that the Braves should pass on trading for A’s outfielder Matt Holliday, which is a fine sentiment, but his logic is a little flawed.

Bradley says:

And there’s no assurance Holliday would swing the 2009 division race any more than Teixeira did in 2007. (Albert Pujols would, but he’s not apt to be available.) There’s no great difference-maker to be had. This is baseball, where the difference-makers are starting pitchers, and the Braves have enough of those.

It’s true the Braves already have plenty of starting pitching. But they’ve got room for improvement on defense (-19 team UZR) and on offense (last in runs scored in the NL East). Maybe Matt Holliday isn’t the answer, but the Braves have plenty of questions outside of their rotation.

Here’s a thought: trade for Scott Rolen and move Chipper Jones and his -9.4 UZR to first base. Here’s what Fangraphs had to say about Rolen in a post on Tuesday:

Rolen is experiencing an inflated BABIP, raising his wOBA to .369 on the season. ZiPS suggests that’ll come back to Earth, but that he’s still an above average hitter moving forward. Gone are the days where Rolen would accumulate 15-20 runs on defense, but he’s still very much above average. So far his UZR/150 is 5.2, last year it was 8.5, and the year before 17.9.

Acquiring Rolen likely wouldn’t cost nearly as much as landing Holliday, and Rolen’s addition would drastically improve Atlanta’s infield defense. Moreover, replacing Kotchman with Rolen would improve Atlanta’s offense as well.

It’s just a thought. If the Braves don’t want Rolen, they they might trade for a new first baseman (Carlos Delgado, Aubrey Huff and Nick Johnson could all be available). The larger point is that pitchers are not the only impact players and the Braves need plenty of help.

Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at UmpBump, and this week’s honoree is Leslee Holliday, wife of Oakland A’s outfielder Matt Holliday.

The couple met in 1998, when Matt had just signed his first pro contract out of high school and was still living with his family in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and Leslee was a freshman at the University of Oklahoma. The couple has two children, sons Ethan and Jackson.

More pictures after the jump…

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I can’t quite explain why those in the new-age statistics community fawn over the “three-true outcomes” player. We love seeing them hit a ball 450-feet, we applaud their walks, and are entertained by their ever climbing strikeout totals. But this year, that TTO club is on the verge of losing one of their true members – Jack Cust.

Ever since he was acquired by Oakland a couple of seasons ago, Cust was unleashed on the world as a prototypical TTO guy. In 2008, Cust whiffed 197 times, had 111 free trips to first and hit 33 round trippers with a .231 batting average. A hallmark season.

But in 2009, Cust has been doing something far more often than he has thus far in his career. He’s actually swinging the bat. In years past, Cust swung at roughly 62% of pitches in the strike zone (MLB average is around 66%). That number has climbed to 71.4% in 2009. Moreover, Cust is swinging at pitches outside the zone more frequently as well (up to 21% of balls out of the zone compared to roughly 15% over his first two seasons in Oakland).

He’s still on pace to hit 32 HRs, and he’s still batting .230 (thanks to a much lower BABiP than in years past). However, as a result of putting the ball in play more often, his strikeout rate has fallen considerably, from 41.5% and 41% in ‘07 and ‘08 respectively, all the way down to 28.1% this season. What’s more, Cust is now walking in just 11.7% of his plate appearances, a steep decline from his numbers in ‘07 (21%) and ‘08 (18.8%).

So if his batting average is remaining fairly constant in comparison to his career numbers even though he’s taking fewer pitches, that means his OBP is taking a pretty big hit. Between 2007-2008, Cust had a very strong .390 OBP. His 2009 number currently stands at a below-average .320. And if that weren’t enough, all those extra swings aren’t resulting in more extra-base hits either – he’s just making more outs and making life easier on opposing pitchers.

I don’t know if the A’s staff specifically asked Cust to cut down on his Ks or if he himself decided to do so. But with 68 games in the books, the 2009 version of Jack Cust is considerably worse than the previous incarnations.

Growing up, I heard announcers and commentators talking all the time about how the ever-climbing strikeout totals in the early 1990’s was a bad thing. Former players would say things like “in my day, you were embarrassed as hell to strikeout 100 times a year”. I’m not saying that strikeouts are a good thing. An out is an out. But by trying to cut down on his Ks, Jack Cust is becoming a lesser player. So figure that one out on your own.

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

Matt Holliday has hit two home runs the last three days. So maybe he’s about to go on a tear and what follows is a gross overreaction on my part. Wouldn’t be the first time.

But the Rockies offered Holliday a four-year, $80 million contract at the conclusion of the 2008 season, and I want to say, on the record: Matt, dude, you shoulda taken the money.

Over the last three seasons Holliday averaged 32 HR, 113 RBI, a .330 batting avg., and an OBP around .400. Oh, and last year he swiped 28 bags and only got caught twice. Fangraphs says Holliday was worth $28MM in 2008, $32MM in 2007, and $16MM in 2006. As Stuart Scott might say, that’s big pimpin.

In the first month of 2009, Holliday is hitting .253 with 2 home run and no stolen bases. He’s got a putrid .303 OBP. As Ernest might say: Ewwwwwwwwww.

The other day Dan Szymborski released an updated ZIPS projection that accounts for April data. Zips estimates Holliday will finish 2009 with the following stats: 21 HR, .285 AVG, .361 OBP, 87 RBI and 12 stolen bases. Obviously, these revised projections represent a pretty serious drop from his career averages.

What’s that worth?

Hard to say, exactly. But last season Torii Hunter (21 HR, .278 AVG, .344 OBP, 78 RBI and 19 stolen bases) put together a line similar to what Holliday is projected to hit in 2009 and Fangraphs says it was worth $16MM. (It’s true Hunter and Holliday are different players, especially defensively, but Hunter’s combination of what is now below average defense at a more difficult position is actually valued similarly to Holliday’s above-average defense in left field.)

Is it likely a team is going to pay Holliday $20MM a year if he has a 2009 worth $16-$18MM? No.

Is it likely a team will give Holliday an eight-year contract when he’s already passed his peak and guys like Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn weren’t able to get more than two years this winter? No.

If Holliday thinks he’s going to get an eight-year deal in the neighborhood of $160MM…well, a word of advice: start hacking, Matt.

It wasn’t all that long ago that premier A’s blog Athletics Nation was wondering if Billy Beane wasn’t losing his touch, and a majority of voters in their poll said that Brian Sabean of all people was “out-GMing” Beane this offseason.

But now, in the fullness of time, Beane’s offseason is looking pretty good. Beane has completely rebuilt an offense that was among the worst last year by adding sluggers Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi, upgrading significantly at shortstop from Bobby Crosby to Orlando Cabrera, and now bringing in Nomar Garciaparra cheaply as a bat off the bench.

Beane was desperate to acquire a shortstop to replace Bobby Crosby, who can’t stay healthy and can’t keep his OBP above .300, but by holding the line on Rafael Furcal and waiting out everyone else, he was able to not only sign Cabrera to an unbelievably low 1-year, $4 million deal, but also had enough cash left over to get reliever Russ Springer and Nomar.

Who would have thought that Cabrera would have gotten only $4 million back at the start of the offseason, before the bottom fell out of the free agent market? It’s hard to blame Sabean too much, but his 2-year, $18.5 million pact with Edgar Renteria sure is looking pretty silly now, since Cabrera is probably actually the better player at short.

The Nomar signing is also very crafty, especially at such a low cost. The only real skill that Nomar still has left is that he absolutely crushes left-handed pitchers (1.067 OPS against them last season), and this fits perfectly with the A’s who remain one of the most heavily left-handed hitting teams in the majors (Cust, Ryan Sweeney, Giambi, Eric Chavez, Jack Hannahan, Daric Barton, and Travis Buck all bat left handed). Plus Nomar can still manage defensively at 1B and 3B, which are two positions where the A’s still have some uncertainty.

A lot still depends on a young and untested rotation stepping up, but as the dust finally settles, the A’s project as about an 84 win team right now. With the Angels expected to come back down to normal Pythagorean levels this season, they project as an 87 win team, so it should be a more interesting year in the AL West than many people expect.

As a card carrying VORPy, it shouldn’t be a shock to our readers that I always enjoy dissecting the Oakland A’s in an attempt to understand Billy Beane’s thinking. It’s been over five years now since “Moneyball” was published and its effects are still apparent. Every single ball club now at least seems to understand the value of each out made and acts accordingly (though some more so than others).

Far too many still think that “Moneyball” was about OBP. It wasn’t. The philosophy was rooted in the difference between perceived value and actual value and exploiting it to one’s own advantage. A few years ago, it was hoarding OBP and projectable prospects while selling off easily replaceable parts like “closers”. But other baseball execs have caught on since then, and when this happened, skills that were undervalued became far more expensive to obtain.

And that’s what makes Oakland so interesting. They have to keep finding market inefficiencies and continue evolving to remain competitive. And they do it about as well as anyone.

With that said, 2008 was not a good year for the on-field product. The aforementioned price increase in what was before undervalued commodities (including young pitching) forced Oakland to take steps back to regroup, trading away pitchers Rich Harden and Joe Blanton in exchange for a plethora of good prospects.

But the regrouping effort didn’t take very long. One of the worst offensive clubs in baseball last season, the A’s made waves by acquiring Matt Holliday via trade and signing Jason Giambi off the free agent “scrap pile”. Oakland knows that the Angels are vulnerable in 2009 – and this club could be the ones to dethrone them in September.

The impact of Holliday and Giambi’s additions should become clearer by Opening Day. Assuming that the former Rockies OF will be entrenched in left field, what’s yet to be answered is what will become of Jack Cust.

To say that defense is not Cust’s forte would be an understatement. If Holliday is playing left, there are only three options for Jack – RF, 1B and DH.  However, in addition to Giambi, the A’s still have first baseman Daric Barton. Despite struggling far more than I thought he would in 2008, it’s still way too early for Oakland to give up on him. So it’s likely that Cust ends up in RF, which is (albeit only slightly so) a more demanding position than Left.

If this will be the actual scenario, despite Cust’s glove, the A’s improved production from the traditional power spots from Frank Thomas-Barton-Cust-Emil Brown to Giambi-Barton-Holliday-Cust. Plus, the team should get perennially underrated 2B Mark Ellis back towards the beginning of the season, who, if healthy, will add a boost both offensively and defensively.

This offensive upgrade will be important since their starting pitching can’t be expected to duplicate their successes from last year. As it currently stands, Justin Duchscherer will be counted on to lead this staff. Duch made his MLB debut back in 2001, but this was the first year in which he was a full time starter converting from the pen. He surprised just about everyone when he posted a 2.54 ERA in 22 starts. Now there are no certainties at this stage of the game, but this isn’t going to happen again. Opponents had a ridiculously low .235 BABIP against Duch last year, which, had he been healthy enough to qualify for the ERA title, would have been the lowest number in all of baseball. Granted, the A’s probably had the best defense in MLB in 2008 so we can attribute a good chunk of that to the gloves behind him. But the rest was luck.

Pitching behind Duchscherer will be a collection of young, talented arms that absolutely need to learn how to limit walks if they are to be successful. Returnee Dana Eveland has walked 4.5 batters per nine innings in his career while former Cub Sean Gallagher comes in at 4.85 BB/9. Gio Gonzalez allowed 61 free passes in 123 minor league innings in while the man with the greatest last name in pitching history, Joshua Outman, walked 45 in 98+IP last year.

The Holliday trade also had major ramifications on the Oakland bullpen which lost Huston Street from its ranks when he was traded to Colorado along with SP Greg Smith and OF Carlos Gonzalez. Plus, Alan Embree and Keith Foulke were lost to free agency. In their place, the A’s signed Russ Springer, Jerome Williams, and just today traded for Mike Wuertz.

Offseason Transactions

ADD: Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Russ Springer, Jerome Williams, Michael Wuertz

LOST: Emil Brown, Frank Thomas, Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew Brown

Projected Lineup

C: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Daric Barton/Jason Giambi
2B: Mark Ellis
3B: Eric Chavez
SS: Bobby Crosby
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Ryan Sweeney
RF: Jack Cust/Travis Buck
DH: Jason Giambi/Jack Cust

Pitching:

SP1: Justin Duchscherer
SP2: Sean Gallagher
SP3: Dana Eveland
SP4: Gio Gonzalez
SP5: Josh Outman/Dallas Braden

CL: Joey Devine

GRADE: B-

What interests me right now with the A’s is that they actually have a good amount of pop and offensive depth, which is notable since the A’s have primarily been known as a high-OBP team with very strong pitching. Yes, we all know that Holliday benefitted from Coors. But he’s still a very capable hitter, as is Jason Giambi. Depth-wise, the team still has Travis Buck, Rajai Davis, and Jack Hannahan coming off the bench – and the latter two are among the top defensive players at their positions. IF everyone is healthy, the infield should be among the best in the Majors defensively, taking some of the load off the less-than-stellar pitching staff.

So overall, Oakland’s done a fairly nice job in constructing their 2009 squad. Like I’ve said, the Angels are vulnerable. Although they won 100 games in 2008, I think that they did it with smoke and mirrors since their run differential suggests that they were an 88-win team. And now they’re without Teixeira and K-Rod. 88 wins really may be enough to win the AL West this year, and Oakland’s got a shot at it. And while you may think that this alone should merit a better offseason grade, I don’t think we should be giving Beane extra credit because the Angels failed to improve.

However, due to their rotation, the A’s are a team that is still going to need things to break their way. Billy Beane found himself in a peculiar position of actually being able to afford power this offseason, and consequently has fielded a team that could hit and field their way into contention in 2009.

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

Today the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tells us Rafael Furcal is likely to sign with the Oakland A’s, because Oakland is offering the most money.

But Furcal isn’t excited about playing in Oakland. In fact, between the A’s, Dodgers, Royals and Braves, the A’s are his last choice.

He is comfortable with the Royals because Furcal knows a few executives from his Atlanta days who are now in Kansas City, notably GM Dayton Moore. He liked playing with the Dodgers and believes of the finalists they have the best chance to be contenders next season. However, the Dodgers might not even offer three guaranteed years and Oakland already is at four guaranteed years.

One of the sources said Furcal was hoping that the Braves might revive trade talks for San Diego’s Jake Peavy and use Yunel Escobar to land the Padre ace. That would open up a return to Atlanta.

Rafael, can we be real for a moment? I know you and Dayton Moore go way back. But is he really so great that you would follow him to Kansas City, where the Royals haven’t had a winning season since 1994 and don’t seem likely to have another anytime soon?

May I remind you that the A’s are run by Billy Beane, who is also pretty awesome. The guy who’s married to Tabitha Soren wrote a book about Beane. And Brad Pitt is going to play Beane in a movie based on the book.

There are plenty of reasons not to sign with Oakland. Fan-support is at an all-time low. There’s a lot of crime in Oakland. Not everybody can pull off the white shoe look.

But avoiding Oakland because Billy Beane is not Dayton Moore (who only weeks ago traded for Mike Jacobs!) is just insane.

Between you and me, Rafael…the A’s are going to be good this year. They’ve got Matt Holliday and a buttload of young talent, including Travis Buck and Gio Gonzalez. You want to be a part of this team. You want to be the big piece that puts them over the top. You’ve got a lot of great baseball left in you, and there’s a lot you can teach their young players. And who knows…maybe the A’s would be willing to wear green shoes for a while? Couldn’t hurt to ask.