It’s bizarre enough that the Astros actually picked up the 2010 option for pitcher Brian Moehler. But even for GM Ed Wade, this quote is bat-sh%! insane:

(Moehler)’s a solid pitcher whose value doesn’t always show up in the numbers. He keeps you in games and gives you a chance to win.

His “value doesn’t always show up in numbers”? He “gives you a chance to win”?

You know what gives you a chance to win, Ed? Not spending $3 million or giving any innings to a 38-year old pitcher who has had a 5.29 ERA since the start of the 2007 season. That would probably help.

Note: For the record, anyone, even I, could give a team a “chance to win”. It’s only a matter of how much better your chances become.

Back in March we lambasted the Washington Post’s Cameron Smith for suggesting that Pudge Rodriguez represented a huge step forward for the Astros. (Frankly, I’m still a little shocked he wrote that post. Maybe he lost a bet?)

Today, I’m here to gloat.

Because Pudge did not make the Astros a contender, as Smith suggested he would. Houston is two games under .500, and seven games back in both the NL Central and NL Wild Card.

How can this be?

Quite simply, Houston was never as good as their 2008 record indicated. When you’re 11 games over .500 but you surrender 31 more runs than you score, there is a certain amount of luck involved.

Pudge hasn’t been a total disaster, as he’s been worth .6 wins above replacement. But he hasn’t been nearly good enough to keep the ‘Stros in contention, and that was incredibly easy to predict.

Moreover, you have to wonder if J.R. Towles would have been a better choice at catcher, seeing as how Pudge is currently sporting a .277 OBP and Towles has a .400 OBP in triple-A.

Of course, there’s no way to know of Towles’ minor league success would have translated to the big leagues. He certainly didn’t have any luck hitting major league pitching in 2008. But it’s clear the cash-strapped Astros would have been better off rolling the dice with Towles and spending $1.5 million on a bullpen arm or utility player instead of on Pudge.

With the season one-third gone now, it’s become pretty clear which players were only slumping and which players actually just suck at baseball. And yet on every team there is at least one player which for foolish reasons, whether it be an over-developed sense of loyalty, a case of GM-player man-love, a reputation for grit and hustle, or a bloated contract, the team just hasn’t been able to pull the plug on yet. In this post, we have a look at each team in the National League with an eye for the one player who really needs to be cut as soon as possible.

Dodgers – RP Guillermo Mota: This guy looks permanently broken: he gives up too many hits, he doesn’t strike enough guys out, and he walks too many batters. His WHIP is an appalling 1.79 and he needs to be shelved somewhere.

Giants – 1B Travis Ishikawa: The main job of a first baseman is to hit, so when your first baseman is the worst hitter on your team, you are doing something wrong.

Diamondbacks – CF Chris Young: Chris Young was supposed to be one of those guys whose power and speed would somehow make of for his complete lack of any ability to get on base.  Well, now you have a guy whose power and speed have fallen off, but who is even less able to get on base.  It is unbelievable that Young is still on pace for well over 500 at bats this season despite his .220 OBP. He needs to be working out his suckiness in the minor leagues.

Rockies – 3B Garret Atkins: I’ve been advocating that the Rockies trade Atkins for two years now, while there was still some perception that he was a good player, but they waited too long, and now he’s basically untradeable. Few players have benefited more from Coors Field than Atkins, and Atkins also had the benefit of his personal peak coinciding with the Rockies high profile Series run in 2007. But he was always an extremely inadequate defender at third, and now his bat has disappeared as well, even at home.

Padres – 2B David Eckstein: GM Kevin Towers calls David Eckstein the MVP of the team so far this year. He couldn’t be more wrong. Eckstein was only barely adequate defensively and offensively when he was at his peak about 5 or 6 years ago, and now at age 34, he’s pretty much got nothing left.

Cardinals – SP Todd Wellemeyer: Todd Wellemeyer shows that maybe there are limits to what pitching coach Dave Duncan can do. Kind of. Actually, it’s pretty amazing that the Cardinals have gotten as much out of Wellemeyer as they have, considering he was nobody’s idea of good starting pitcher material. But with Mitchell Boggs waiting in the wings, there’s really no reason to keep Wellemeyer around.

Brewers – 3B Bill Hall: Bill Hall couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Sure, he hit 35 homers back in 2006, but he’s done nothing at all since then, and he still has no real position defensively. For some reason, Hall still has the image of a youngster who is still developing, but when you actually go look at his age you find out he is already 29 years old, and what you see, which right now is total suckage, is probably what he really is.

Cubs – RP Aaron Heilman: Heilman was once a highly touted prospect, and did manage to throw up a few good seasons, but it’s becoming more and more clear that he’s just not all that good. Nothing about his peripherals suggests that anything is particularly wrong. His velocity is the same as ever, as are his FB/GB rates, his home run rate, his K/9 rate etc., and his BABIP is a very modest .299. Heilman simply walks too many batters, posting an unsightly 6.26 BB/9, and until that changes (if ever), he needs to be in AAA somewhere until he can learn better control.

Reds – SS Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez was once an elite defender at shortstop, which meant that his extremely weak bat could be somewhat justified, but now he is no longer anywhere near that class, and his bat seems weaker than ever at .209/.250/.302. He needs to be cut.

Erstad is still playing?

Astros – OF Darin Erstad: Yeah, I know, Erstad is supposed to be this super-gritty former football player (except he was only a kicker), but we are a decade removed now from his last actually good season in 2000, and I’m almost surprised to see that he is actually still on a major league roster. He’s hitting .137/.211/.196.  Why is this man still anywhere near a baseball diamond?

Pirates – OF Brandon Moss: Lots of people have mentioned how one good side of trading away Nate McLouth was that it has “cleared playing time for blocked prospect Andrew McCutchen.”  But hardly anyone mentions that one of the players who was allegedly “blocking” McCutchen is Brandon Moss, a corner outfielder who has been playing every day this season despite posting a .310 OBP and only a single home run.

Marlins – 3B Emilio Bonifacio: The fact that Emilio Bonifacio, who has no business being in a major league lineup at all, is actually batting leadoff for the Marlins, despite his .294 OBP, is an indictment of the entire Marlins coaching staff and front office.

Bonifacio whiffs again

Mets – C Omir Santos: It’s a joke that the Mets actually traded away Ramon Castro to clear a spot on the roster for this guy. It’s going to be fun watching as the numbers left over from his fluky hot start rapidly sink toward the Mendoza line.

Braves – OF Garrett Anderson: I laughed out loud when I heard that the Braves signed Anderson in the offseason, and I pretty much haven’t stopped laughing since.  The poor old guy has a .289 OBP to go along with a -15 UZR/150 in left field. At this point you could probably drag Bernie Williams out of the recording studio and run him out there for better production.

Nationals – CL Joel Hanrahan: You can anoint a guy your closer, sing the praises of his “live arm,” and run him out there in save situations as much as you want, but that doesn’t mean he is going to pitch like a closer, just because you really really want him to. In what may be the worst bullpen of all time, no reliever has done more damage in more high leverage situations than Hanrahan. His 1.90 WHIP (for an alleged closer!) pretty much says it all.

Phillies – P Chan Ho Park: Park has looked finished for years now, at least when you look at his peripherals. He managed to reinvent himself as a serviceable reliever in the pitcher-friendly NL West last season, fooling the Phillies into taking him on, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his game does not play well in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. The Park-as-starter experiment was basically doomed from the get-go, but ironically, Park has pitched even more poorly this year as a reliever than he did as a starter. This man should be enjoying his retirement somewhere, not getting thrown to the wolves every other night.

This is one of a series of posts in which we berate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move.

Here it is folks – your best bet for the worst team in the Major Leagues in 2009.

After a brutal offseason a year ago in which owner Drayton McLane forced Ed Wade to trade away whatever was left of a tattered farm system in order to “contend,” the Astros had yet another brutal offseason this year when McLane decided to completely close up his wallet in light of the financial crisis. With no prospects and no free agents, the Astros were left with no options at all for improving the team, and indeed, the team has not improved in any way whatsoever.

Now, the Astros had a decent year last season, surprising many by hovering on the fringes of contention through August, and ultimately winding up with a very respectable 86-75 finish. The problem is, just about everything is trending downward for the Astros for 2009, and no help is on the way.

Sure, Lance Berkman got off to a scorching start last year and finished with strong numbers, and while he is likely to approach last year’s numbers again, he is not very likely to improve on them at age 33. Meanwhile, Carlos Lee is also 33, fatter than ever, and starting to have trouble keeping himself on the field, and Miguel Tejada continues his fall back to Earth from steroid-induced (and age-falsified) heights, posting an OPS+ under 100 for the first time in a decade and hitting a mere 13 homers, his fewest since 1998.

And that’s actually the good part. Once you move past the team’s three superstars, things start to get really ugly, really fast. One-time hot prospects Hunter Pence and J.R. Towles took significant steps backward last year, and need to step it up this year just to get back toward average. Kaz Matsui had a career year in 2009, but it is doubtful he can approach those numbers again, given his previous performance level. With Wade forced to let Ty Wigginton walk — due to having no money to pay him –  third base is going to be manned by a platoon of Geoff Blum and Aaron  (Bleepin’) Boone. Finally, center field is going to remain in the hands of speedster Michael Bourn, who is unstoppable once he gets on base, but never actually got on base thanks to his vomit-inducing .288 OBP last year.

The ugliest part of all, however, is the pitching staff. While Jose Valverde is a decent closer, and ace Roy Oswalt remains on a Hall of Fame track, otherwise the Astros are trying to get things done on smoke and mirrors, with Ed Wade pulling a 3-year $27-million offer to Randy Wolf off the table when the financial crisis struck. Relying on 42-year-old Doug Brocail as a setup man is nobody’s idea of wise move, Wandy Rodriguez as a number two starter is a stretch at best, and when Mike Hampton is pencilled in as your third starter, you know it’s bad, bad news. If Hampton even makes it out of May without going down for the season, Ed Wade needs to call the Vatican and somebody needs to get canonized, because a genuine miracle has just occured.

But you really know your team is in trouble when they not only sign Russ Ortiz (yes that “Russ Ortiz”), but actually think there is a chance he will wind up in their rotation. (Having not thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues in almost 600 days, Ortiz points out that he is “good and rested.”)

Look, there are some teams in baseball that have talent but won’t spend money (like the Marlins), or have talent but are completely mismanaged (like the Nationals), or have no talent but spend lots of money (like the Yankees), but no other team in baseball combines an utter lack of talent in their system with brutal mismanagement *and* a total unwillingness to spend money they way the Astros have this offseason.

Offseason Grade: F

Acquisitions: P Mike Hampton, IF Aaron Boone, OF Jason Michaels, P Russ Ortiz, P Danny Graves, P Clay Hensley, C Lou Palmisano (Rule V from Arizona)

Losses: P Randy Wolf, IF Ty Wiggenton, C Brad Ausmus, IF Mark Loretta

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer

C J.R. Towles
1B Lance Berkman
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone
SS Miguel Tejada
LF Carlos Lee
CF Michael Bourn
RF Hunter Pence

SP1 Roy Oswalt
SP2 Wandy Rodriguez
SP3 Mike Hampton
SP4 Brian Moehler
SP5 Brandon Backe

CL Jose Valverde

- Hot Offseason Index -

What could I say about the future of the Houston Astros that won’t make me sound like a hater?

…

Well…

You can still probably get away with calling Carlos Lee “pudgy” instead of “obese”. Does that count?

The 2008 Houston Astros was the oldest squad in the National League. Out of those who accumulated at least 200 ABs last season, only Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were younger than 30. Wandy Rodriguez was the only 20-something pitcher who started at least four games – and he was 29. If you’re this old, then you’d better be good. But the Astros weren’t. Sure, they won 86 games but they were outscored by their opponents by 31 runs for the year. This was very much a run-of-the-mill team except for the fact that the vast majority of their roster are on the downsides of their careers. And with their last remaining prospects dealt away in the Miguel Tejada trade, there’s no help in the pipeline. Their short term future is mediocrity, which will be immediately followed by awfulness. Unless, of course, they do what they should have done a year ago and blow up the team.

After a great season, Lance Berkman’s value is not going to be this high ever again. The Big Puma (he looks more like a bear to me… Can we just call him the Bear instead?) turned in one of the best offensive years of his career with a line of .312/.420/.567. That’s not to say that moving him will be easy. Berkman’s contract is guaranteed until 2010 with a team option in 2011. However, he also has a full no-trade clause. Would guaranteeing that 2011 option year plus playing for a contending team be enough to coax Berkman into waiving that no-trade? It’s possible. But whomever takes that deal will pay him $44M over the next three years, so the guy’s not cheap. Furthermore, he’ll be 33 come Opening Day which should give teams pause before pulling the trigger. When it’s all said and done, however, Berkman will be more valuable to another team than he’s going to be in Houston over those three seasons.

A similar case could be made for Ty Wigginton, who unexpectedly had an OPS+ of 128 while primarily playing third base. Unless Chipper Jones becomes a free agent this offseason, Wigginton would probably attract far more interest than any other third baseman on the market.

As for the other big names, taller obstacles would need to be cleared. Ace Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the National League but his contract is long and huge (that’s what she said). The 31 year-old is due $45MM over the next three seasons plus a team option and no-trade. And with his slight frame (listed at 6 feet, 170lbs), there will be questions regarding future durability. Tejada only has one year remaining on his deal, but it’s for $13MM and he hit like an average shortstop as an Astro with subpar defense thrown in. Plus, Carlos Lee is an immovable object, literally and figuratively (although I don’t know which is which). Two years ago, the Astros signed him to an absurd $100MM deal that runs through 2012. Lee is still expected to be an offensive contributor for the near future, but I just cannot fathom someone taking on that contract.

Will this fix everything? Absolutely not. For one, Ed Wade is their GM so I can’t be confident that he’ll be able to get anything worthwhile in return even if he were to wheel and deal. And this is an organization with no young cornerstone players (although Pence has a shot to fill that role) so it’s going to be a long climb back into contention. Perhaps I am being too bullish about the NL Central next season but I just cannot foresee a scenario where the Houston Astros have much of a shot.

If you were to twist my arm, however, and dare me to give this team and their fans a reason to hope in 2009, here’s what must happen.

It would be a given that all of last year’s contributors would have to stay healthy. Ones of the J.R.s – Towles or House – would have to become at least a good option at the catcher’s spot because Brad Ausmus is awful and should not be brought back. Miguel Tejada needs to reverse his decline and prove that his poor season was a fluke. Hunter Pence needs to learn how to take a pitch and raise his OBP above .350 to be considered a good player in my book. And although I’m not a fan of his defense, Pence also ought to be moved back to centerfield. His defense won’t help you much, but his bat will profile better there than at the corner OF spots. Why is the defensive hit worth it? Cuz’ Michael Bourn should never start. Ever. He’s a defensive replacement until he proves otherwise. Or they can go out and sign Jim Edmonds. Although a repeat of his Chicago success is unlikely, the guy’s convinced me that he’s not quite done yet. At the very least, if he can repeat his plate discipline and defense, he’d be an upgrade.

On the mound, the Astros have two above-average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy. But beyond that, there’s not much. Bringin Randy Wolf back is a possibility, but his past performances indicate that his numbers in Houston last year are simply unrepeatable. Chris Sampson is an underrated arm and he can solidify the back of a rotation. For the other spots, Wade should be looking for pitchers who can keep the ball down against right-handed hitters since the short left field porch at Minute Maid Park is a killer (another reason why Wolf is probably a bad match). Why not take a crack at Brad Penny on a one-year deal? Their division hopes are a roll of the dice anyway. May as well make this one a high-risk pick.

- What They Need Index -

It’s intervention time, people.

Astros GM Ed Wade is reportedly in talks to trade for Padres starting pitcher Randy Wolf . This is the act of a desperate man. He needs our help.

The problem is…well, there are lots of problems. But first and foremost, Wolf isn’t that good. He’s been added and dropped by every fantasy manager in America this season, because he strikes guys out (108 K’s) but he also get’s knocked around (4.74 ERA).

The Astros are currently in fifth place, 12 games out of first. They’ve given up 55 more runs than they’ve scored this season.

And yet Wade wants to trade for a starting pitcher – and a mediocre starting pitcher at that. Because, in his mind, the Astros are still right in the thick of it.

I’m not sure if this is a lingering effect from getting body slammed by Shawn Chacon, or what, but Wade needs some tough love. The Astros are not going to win the NL Central. The Cubs (who have scored 109 runs more than they’ve given up) are way too hot and way too stacked. Ditto the Brewers and the Cardinals (who both have a run differencial of +30). Even the Reds have a better shot at walking away with the division. Yet you don’t see the Reds trading away prospects for middle of the road starting pitchers.

And let’s not forget that Chicago recently traded for Rich Harden, who is about as dominant as they come (when healthy). The Brewers just added CC Sabathia (who you might remember from last season’s Cy Young Award ceremony). But that’s no big deal, because the Astros are about to add Randy Wolf!

I know Wade has never been the world’s savviest front office guy. But this is crazy even by his standards. Is it possible Wade was given a "win now or else" directive at the beginning of this season? That would explain a lot.

But directive or no directive, Wade needs to know that this season is lost and that the Astros simply don’t have the talent to be competitive anytime soon. Houston needs to rebuild and they need to start now, by trading guys like … well, everybody not named Hunter Pence. Jose Valverde should be the first to go, followed shortly thereafter by Miggy Tejada.

Why can’t you see what is so obvious that even the Reds can see it, Ed? Why can’t you accept that this Astros team simply isn’t very good? What is it going to take for you to throw in the towel?

Ed, we’re your friends and we care about you. And we’re worried.

The Houston Astros are in shambles.

After a hot start, they completely tanked in May and June and are now in a closely-fought battle with the Reds for last place in the 6-team NL Central.

So big changes need to be made.  And they need to start in the front office.

Owner Drayton McLane can’t very well fire himself, but he needs to fire somebody.  With all the indications that manager Cecil Cooper and pitching coach Dewey Robinson have contributed to creating a toxic clubhouse atmosphere, he can start with them, but most of the blame for this putrid team must be laid at the feet of GM Ed Wade.

To be as fair as possible to Wade, he was apparently under strict orders from McLane to field a contender. But what Wade did was take a team in no position to seriously contend, and completely torpedo any vague chance it might have had with a series of atrocious moves.

It’s not like I foresaw this suckage or anything, months ahead of time. Oh wait, I did.

A quick glance at the performance of the guys Wade brought in, compared to the performance of the guys he shipped out, reveals the magnitude of the tranwreck, as all of his major acquisitions have tanked.  Leadoff man Michael Bourn has a .288 on-base percentage and a .600 OPS. Second baseman Kazuo Matsui has an only slightly less abominable .678 OPS. Imported closer Jose Valverde has posted a 4.24 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Shawn Chacon added injury to insult by physically assaulting Wade and getting released. And marquee big-name acquisition Miguel Tejada’s .779 OPS is actually 86 points lower than that the main player he was acquired for, Luke Scott.

Meanwhile, Scott has become one of the best hitters on the Orioles, fellow Tejada trade pieces Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate have been amazing out of the Baltimore bullpen, Chad Qualls leads all Diamondbacks hurlers in relief innings, and Brad Lidge has utterly dominated as the Phillies closer.  Throw in Trever Miller’s decent performance out of the Rays’ pen, and Wade gave away or let go almost an entire major league bullpen which is much better than the one he currently has.

The Astros have no business trying to field a contender this year.  They should be tearing everything down and rebuilding from the ground up.  And that needs to begin with the front office and the coaching staff.  But mostly Ed Wade. Because even if they think they should be trying to contend, Wade is clearly not the man to try that with.

- What They Need Index -

He moved in front of me until we were chest to chest and then he shoved me to the ground. When I attempted to get to my feet, he shoved me a second time.

This was not taken from a script of a Lifetime Original Movie starring Joanna Kerns. These are the words of Astros GM Ed Wade describing his encounter with pitcher Shawn Chacon, who was put on waivers yesterday after admitting to putting his hand around Wade’s throat and throwing him down to the ground.

As a follow-up story, The Houston Chronicle’s Jose de Jesus Ortiz wonders what exactly is going on between the Houston pitchers and their coaches, more specifically, pitching coach Dewey Robinson.

De Jesus Ortiz recounts an incident back on May 17 – facing the Texas Rangers, Astros ace Roy Oswalt complained to Robinson of pain in his groin after completing the sixth inning. Instead of being taken out, Oswalt was asked to give the team one more inning, but instead failed to record an out in the seventh (gave up consecutive hits to Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) before being removed. Following the game, Oswalt told reporters:

“”I told (Manager Cecil Cooper and Robinson) I thought (the 6th inning) was it,” he said after the game. “They wanted me to go one more.”

What makes this strange, however, is that Astros manager Cecil Cooper recounted this very differently:

“He just said he thought he could go back out for the seventh,” Cooper said. “We felt we could get one more out of him.”

Sounds like someone’s lying, or to put it more nicely, someone has “communication problems”. Anyhow, back to de Jesus Ortiz’ column. Cecil Cooper obviously denies that there is a communication problem between the pitching corps and their coach. Oswalt, however, uses words that are probably a little too open to interpretation when talking about his first year manager and pitching coach:

“I won’t say it’s a communication problem. Sometimes we see different from them, and they see it different from us. You still have to play no matter what.”

“I think it’s a lot of (it happening to be the) first time they’ve done this job. You worry about too many things at one time instead of just being worried about being focused on the team and know that everybody here is trying to give 100 percent. Sometimes the game is starting to look a little easier from the sideline than it does on the field. Overall, it’s just trying to get accustomed to the job.”

I can’t say that I blame Oswalt if he’s sounding a bit frustrated. I mean, Dewey Robinson seems to endorse the most useless baseball “skill-enhancing” product I have ever seen. Apparently, pitchers’ in-game performances are elevated by 3 bazillion percent when you begin calling the outside corner of the plate “7″.

Thanks goes out to Zvee Geffen for pointing out the Oswalt-part of the story.